Wheat Market Outlook - March 2, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures had a strong showing this past week and have translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the prairies. Canadian wheat domestic price targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Some buying of futures in the market has reduced overall managed money short positions. Some weather scares and repositioning by traders as the wheat crop ending stocks and forecasts do not look as burdensome as they once did just a month ago. The market is entering an interesting time here shortly as it will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state by state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that is when we will know best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain competitivegoing forwards.MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUMThe overall price outlook for durum appears relatively flat as it has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received quite good winter rainfall, and the crop prospects are sitting quite positive for now in many key production areas. The market will also turn attention to Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates.Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/