Wheat Market Outlook - May 23, 2023

Mercantile says there currently are few supportive news in the wheat markets. The wheat complex is facing high ending stocks in the EU and Russia and a potentially large global crop, which has European prices heading lower and dragging global prices lower according to Mercantile. The U.S. has been totally uncompetitive for weeks, so Mercantile doesn’t see any major North American cash shorts getting pushed around by some bullish U.S. crop reports, like the Kansas crop tour. According to Russian officials, Russia plans to harvest on average around 130 million tonnes of grain a year and to export up to 55 million tonnes, which will keep pressure on cash FOB/CIF prices. Mercantile needs generally poor world weather reports and/or stronger local currencies to promote buying interest in the short term. Mercantile believes Russia will continue to sell and lead wheat markets.