Wheat Market Outlook - September 11, 2023

Mercantile says the focus of the markets will be the USDA-WASDE reports next Tuesday. The seasonal tendencies for wheat prices to rise into the winter and the anticipation of reduced Southern Hemisphere and Canadian supplies are the main bullish motives in coming weeks, according to Mercantile. The counter arguments are that this is already priced in with the large carries in the cash and futures market. Mercantile is worried about the aggressiveness by Russia into the export markets despite reports of problems with their spring wheat crop.  Russia is taking up a lot of import capacity, in Mercantile’ s opinion. Mercantile still expect markets to move higher in the New Year, but from what level? The wheat market remains very complicated, but Mercantile expects it to move higher in the New Year, so storage is important.