Wheat Market Outlook - September 18, 2023

In Mercantile’s view, the WASDE report was constructive for wheat. However, exports year-to-date are disappointing and some will question the USDA’s export forecast as being too high. Nevertheless, we ‘might be’ at a tipping point in the wheat markets. Over much of the summer, consumers have taken advantage of declining spot prices to lower their buying average. Seasonal upswings from this point in the year are typical, says Mercantile, and while consumers seem to be generally well covered for the fall positions (O/N/D), they are still mostly open for 2024. Russia is still the cheapest source of wheat by far but does not offer far forward. So, consumers will have to choose to stay open/uncovered, or else to cover from more expensive origins says Mercantile. Mercantile would not suggest additional sales at this time.