Wheat Market Outlook - September 8, 2025

Market Outlook - What to Watch with WheatWheat markets continue to grind near their contract lows on the futures markets and sit at levels seen back in early 2021. Markets have a better understanding of wheat supplies now that the European, Black Sea, United States and Canadian crops are either off or close to wrapping up their harvest season. The Australian crop looks favourable and has seen some major improvements in the past two months and the Argentinian crop looks great. Demand is the item being watched as export pace is slow in some regions with reports of buyers remaining on the sidelines seeing how low prices may move before making any major commitments. With supplies relatively well understood, Exceed will need to see stories build on the demand side. The next thing the market will watch will be EU and Black Sea winter crop planting.Canadian producers will need to see strong export demand throughout the marketing year. Canadian durum is expected to be of good quality for export but will need to remain competitive globally. European production is estimated at 8.3mmt vs last years 7.2mmt has weighted on EU prices. Global durum carryout is expected to jump to 7mmt, up by 400,000 tonnes over last year's ending stock estimate. The Canadian durum crop size is estimated by the IGC at 5.8mmt but Statistics Canada’s latest release has the figure closer to 6.1mmt. Canadian durum values are under harvest pressure as supplies become available to the market. Statistics Canada stocks report released tomorrow, September 9th, will be closely watched by market participants globally.Market Outlook – DurumCanadian producers will need to see strong export demand throughout the marketing year. Canadian durum is expected to be of good quality for export but will need to remain competitive globally. European production is estimated at 8.3mmt vs last years 7.2mmt has weighted on EU prices. Global durum carryout is expected to jump to 7mmt, up by 400,000 tonnes over last year's ending stock estimate. The Canadian durum crop size is estimated by the IGC at 5.8mmt but Statistics Canada’s latest release has the figure closer to 6.1mmt. Canadian durum values are under harvest pressure as supplies become available to the market. Statistics Canada stocks report released tomorrow, September 9th, will be closely watched by market participants globally.