Where have we been, where are we now, and what’s next?

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 1st, 2026“It’s not the immediate damage, but the unforeseen second and third order consequences that really hurt.”2026 has been an interesting year thus far. A number of themes including AI, Geopolitics, Debt and Innovation have driven the flow of markets, which have very high upside expectations and few worries about downside risks. I would remind readers of Blain Mantra No 1: “The markets have but one objective: to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants”. Hey-Ho, and on we go...It’s the first of July, and we are at the half-way stage of 2026 – and hasn’t it been fascinating? I thought it might be interesting to skim through what we expected, what happened, and where we might be headed next. Its worth starting from the premise that markets are not enlightened, all-knowing crystal balls, but simply the sum of weighted stupidity – in other words, expectations are based on hopes, while reality is often the result of mistakes.That said, explaining the whole of the global economy and markets in 2 hours before breakfast and doing my day-job is a tough ask, but there are four very visible market themes that stand out in my mind – and of course, they are all inter-related, and they have all repeated themselves through history. This time it might be different - we live in a very connected world. As someone once said: “A toddler having a tantrum in Washington makes old men smile in Beijing.”You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!