Which Goods Go Up Under China Tariffs?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com Housekeeping: Good Morning. “The Gold reset is a process, not an event”Today* Discussion: Impact of China Tariffs* Premium: Goldman’s Desk Assess China Tariff impactDiscussion: Impact of China Tariffs Q: What Parts of the US Economy Are Most Sensitive to Tariffs on China?Goldman expects a second Trump administration to raise average tariff rates on imports from China by about 20 percentage points. Non-consumer goods would likely see bigger hikes than consumer goods.Stuff we buy…The US relies heavily on China for certain consumer items:* Appliances ( 10 and 24%)* Footwear and clothing (10-30%)* Consumer electronics, especially telephones (39%)In their baseline scenario, fully passing these tariffs through to prices could lift consumer costs for Chinese-origin goods by 2-10%Q: What about Stuff we sell?* Higher Input Costs* Reciprocal Tariffs * Export Restrictions on Critical Raw MaterialsFull Analysis and graphics at bottom…Q: What risks does it mean for the economy and the Fed’s role?* Recession, Stagflation, Inflation and Fed reactions* Covid Aftermath 2.0.* They always choose inflationContinues in premium discussion…News/Analysis: Unlocked FavoritesFor unlocked favorites click hereEquity Recap: US equities were flat after a holiday-shortened week. Large caps lagged small caps: S&P 500 (-0.04%) vs. Russell 2000 (+0.90%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) lost 0.35 and MSCI EAFE (EFA) added 0.47%.Market News: "Finding an affordable car in the U.S. has already become a challenge for many budget-constrained Americans. New import tariffs on Mexican-built vehicles threaten to make the problem worse. Today, nearly one-third of all vehicles priced below $30,000 and sold in the U.S. are built in Mexico, including the Nissan Sentra, Ford Maverick and other popular nameplates, according to an analysis by car-shopping website Edmunds. A decade ago, Mexico was responsible for one-fifth of the affordable cars sold in the U.S., the firm’s data shows." Source: WSJ"Recurring applications for US unemployment benefits rose to the highest in more than three years, adding to signs that it is taking longer for out-of-work people to find a job. Bloomberg"India has eclipsed China as Asia’s top market for company listings this year, as buoyant stock prices spark a boom in initial public offerings. Propelled by companies including Swiggy and Hyundai Motor, India will be the world’s second-largest equity fundraising market behind the US for the first time, Source: FT"Vacancies at open-air shopping centres in the US have dropped to historically low levels, defying forecasts of a retail apocalypse caused by the rise of ecommerce. FT"Demand for artificial intelligence-enabled smartphones could help to protect parts of the semiconductor industry from a “vicious” downturn if investment in data centres slows, said the chief executive of the world’s largest provider of chip testing machines. FT"Retail traders sent almost $30 billion into Nvidia shares this year on balance, according to Vanda Research. CNBCHt Datatrek and NewssquawkData on Deck: * MONDAY, DEC. 23 Consumer confidence* TUESDAY, DEC. 24 Durable-goods orders* WEDNESDAY, DEC. 25 Christmas holiday* THURSDAY, DEC. 26 Initial jobless claims* FRIDAY, DEC. 27 Advanced U.S. trade balance in goodsFinal Market CheckPremium: Goldman on China Tariff Changes and Their Impact