Why Bond Yields Are Rising While Inflation Cools

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been confusing markets since spring: why are long-term Treasury yields climbing even as inflation data — from CPI to the PCE deflator — show price pressures cooling? They start with the numbers: the ten-year yield has drifted up to around 4.7 percent while core PCE inflation has eased to 2.6 percent. Lucas explains the role of term premiums, supply concerns from a widening budget deficit, and the Fed's balance-sheet runoff. Luna brings up the surprising resilience of the labor market — unemployment at 4.1 percent with job openings still above 7 million — and how that complicates the Fed's path. They also discuss what the 10-year breakeven at 2.27 percent implies about market expectations. If you've wondered why your bond portfolio is hurting while inflation headlines look good, this episode gives you the framework to understand it. #BondYields #TreasuryMarket #InflationData #CPI #CorePCE #FederalReserve #TermPremium #BudgetDeficit #LaborMarket #EconomicIndicators #MacroEconomics #Investing #Markets #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Finance #YieldCurve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo