Why Core Inflation Is Stuck Above the Fed's Target

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the April 2026 CPI and PCE data to understand why core inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's target despite a cooling economy. They examine a surprising divergence: headline CPI fell to 332.4, but core CPI rose to 335.4, driven by a 0.3% month-over-month increase in core services excluding housing — the so-called 'supercore' category. Lucas explains how a tight labor market with 7.6 million job openings and rising average hourly earnings to $37.50 are keeping service-sector inflation sticky, even as goods prices moderate. Luna points out the paradox that the unemployment rate holds at 4.3%, yet long-term unemployment is surging, hinting at structural shifts that could prolong the inflation problem. They also explore the market's reaction: the VIX spiking 34% to 21.51 while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.54%, suggesting investors are pricing in persistent inflation risk. The episode concludes with a look ahead to the May jobs report and whether the Fed can afford to stay on hold. #Inflation #CoreCPI #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #JOLTS #Supercore #PCE #MonetaryPolicy #June2026 #EconomicForecast #StickyInflation #TreasuryYield #VIX #WageGrowth #LongTermUnemployment #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo