Why Falling Breakeven Rates Give the Fed Cover Despite Sticky PCE

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox of falling market-implied inflation expectations — the 10-year breakeven rate dropped to 2.21 percent in late July 2026 — even as core PCE ticked up to its highest level in months. They explore why the Fed prioritizes the breakeven over backward-looking data, how the Singapore central bank's surprise tightening contrasts with the Fed's patient stance, and whether the bond market's vote of confidence could be wrong. Along the way, they discuss the impact of oil prices, tariffs, and the import price surge from China. Listeners get a clear, data-driven explanation of how the Fed reads conflicting signals to set policy. #FederalReserve #Inflation #BreakevenRate #PCE #TIPS #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #TenYearTreasury #SingaporeMonetaryPolicy #OilPrices #Tariffs #ImportPrices #ChinaTrade #Economics #CentralBank #BondMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo