Why Forecasting is Poker and Not Chess - A Conversation with Jenna Malone

During the day, Jenna Malone is a physicians assistant, but she moonlights as a ski patroller at Alta, a Powderbird guide, and an instructor with AAI. At this fall's Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop, she gave a compelling presentation on why avalanche decision making is more like poker than chess. The difference is in the levels of certainty and the information available to the players. Inspired by champion poker player Annie Duke's book Thinking in Bets, Jenna discusses how we make decisions in avalanche terrain, knowing that in this game, the stakes are our very lives.