Why GDP Growth Slowed but Jobs Stay Strong

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the strange divergence in the latest US economic data. Real GDP growth dropped to an annualized 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 2.1%, yet the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% and payrolls kept adding jobs. They explore possible explanations, including labor hoarding and productivity shifts, and discuss what this puzzle means for the Federal Reserve's policy path. With core inflation still running around 3.3%, the Fed holds steady at 3.63%, but the bond market is sending mixed signals—the ten-year yield at 4.66% and the two-year at 3.67% steepen the curve. Lucas and Luna also touch on the rise in initial jobless claims to 197,000 and the still-elevated level of job openings. A timely conversation for anyone trying to read the economic tea leaves. #GDPGrowth #UnemploymentRate #JobMarket #FederalReserve #Inflation #EconomicData #LaborHoarding #Productivity #BondMarket #YieldCurve #MacroEconomics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicPuzzle Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo