Why Inflation Feels Worse Than the Headline Number

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle from the May 28 data: core PCE hit 3.3% annualized in April, but consumer surveys and anecdotes suggest inflation feels far more painful. Lucas points to the gap between the official 'basket of goods' and what households actually spend—especially services like auto insurance, which is up over 20% year over year. Luna brings in the latest Fed commentary from Goolsbee and Kashkari, who acknowledge energy persistence. They explore why the disconnect matters for policy: if the Fed relies on core PCE, it might underweight the real squeeze on lower-income households. Specific numbers: 10-year breakeven at 2.39% (down from 2.40%), unemployment at 4.3%, and job openings dropping to 6.87 million. The episode closes on a forward-looking note about whether the May CPI print could shift the narrative. #Inflation #CorePCE #ConsumerSentiment #FedPolicy #Goolsbee #Kashkari #EnergyInflation #AutoInsurance #CostOfLiving #RealEconomy #BreakevenRate #JOLTS #Unemployment #Economics #EconomicForecast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo