Why the 2-Year Treasury Yield Is Trading Like a Ceiling

Lucas and Luna break down why the 2-year Treasury yield has been stuck near 4.13% for weeks — even as the 10-year and 30-year yields drift higher. They explore the role of the Fed's interest on reserve balances (IORB) at 3.65%, the 3-month bill yield at 3.79%, and the market's view on rate cuts through 2027. Using the current 2-10 spread of 40 basis points and declining 5-year note yield, they explain why the front end of the curve is sending a different signal than the long end. Specific numbers, no jargon. #2YearTreasury #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #IORB #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #RateCuts #ShortEnd #FrontEnd #Liquidity #BasisPoints #FOMC #TreasuryNotes #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo