Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening While the Fed Holds Firm

On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking market signal: the ten-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.74 percent while the two-year sits at 3.68, a steepening curve that usually suggests investors expect growth and inflation to pick up. But the Fed, led by Kevin Warsh, is holding rates steady at 3.63 percent, and core inflation is running at 3.3 percent. How do we square a steepening curve with a cautious Fed? The hosts walk through what the curve is really saying about term premiums, fiscal deficits, and the risk of a policy mistake. They also touch on the latest GDP print of 1.5 percent annualized growth and why jobless claims ticking up to 197,000 might not signal trouble. If you're wondering whether bond markets know something the Fed doesn't, this episode is for you. #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #Inflation #GDP #JobsReport #10YearTreasury #2YearTreasury #SteepeningCurve #TermPremium #FiscalDeficit #MonetaryPolicy #CoreInflation #Economics #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo