Will India Strike Pakistan?

Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces episode 0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 2:25: Intro ends 4:25: Interview begins 4:46: Pillalamarri's background 5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets 6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan 7:10: Background on India-Pakistan conflict 8:11: Why do India and Pakistan go to war? 9:34: Pakistan's strategy 11:47: Spike in Polymarket market 12:13: Nuclear weapons 12:57: Terrorist attack in India 18:10: Indian military options 19:50: Indian hardliners 20:51: Pakistan's hand 25:18: China 26:38: Saudi Arabia 27:50: Munir 28:14: Pakistani military 29:06: India's point of view 30:01: Hardline Indian policy 32:50: Timing of an Indian strike 35:21: Market rules on "strike" 36:33: No Indian ground forces 37:06: Indian strike in 2027 Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics.  Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers Bet on the India-Pakistan conflict at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-by?tid=1764041734299 The next DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup is on Tuesday, Nov 25 from 6-9pm at Rocklands Barbeque and Grilling Company. This month's speaker is John Bennett. John was the co-organizer of the recent Manifest x DC conference that took place earlier this month and will be leading a discussion about what worked well, what didn't, and what we could do to scale next time.  A BBQ buffet and fountain drinks will be provided free of charge to this month's attendees. Alcoholic beverages will be available for purchase. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/VoLn8aAh4pabxrxczwiz Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true  Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv