Will The Japan Carry Trade Affect Real Estate?

On today’s show, we’re examining the Japanese yen carry trade and why its possible unwinding should be of interest to real estate investors thousands of miles away from Tokyo.A carry trade sounds complicated, but the basic idea is simple. An investor borrows money in a currency with a low interest rate and invests that money in an asset offering a higher return.The carry trade has its roots in an economic stagnation that started in 1991. Their stock market crashed in 1991 and the air came out of their real estate bubble? Over the next several years, the Japanese central bank lowered interest rates to try and stimulate the economy. By 1995 rates were at 0.5% and by 1999 they were down to zero. For decades, Japan was the natural source of that cheap money. Interest rates were near zero, and at times negative. Investors could borrow yen, convert the proceeds into dollars, euros, Australian dollars, or another currency, and purchase higher-yielding assets.Carry trades depend on three conditions: cheap funding, stable exchange rates, and confidence that liquidity will remain available.All three conditions are now being questioned.The Bank of Japan has been moving away from the extraordinary monetary policies that made yen funding so attractive. At the same time, Japanese authorities have intervened in currency markets after extreme yen weakness. Even a rapid strengthening caused by intervention can force leveraged traders to reduce their positions. We saw a preview in August of 2024. A strengthening yen and changing expectations for Japanese interest rates helped trigger a rapid unwinding of leveraged positions. The result was not limited to the foreign-exchange market. Japanese equities fell sharply, volatility jumped, and investors sold assets elsewhere to meet margin calls and reduce risk. So what happens to credit markets when the carry trade ends?------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)