Will the one big, ugly bill survive Senate scrutiny?

Markets are digesting the political theater surrounding the “One Big Ugly Bill” as bipartisan brinksmanship ramps up. Despite high-profile opposition—from Elon Musk to fiscal hawks in the Senate—our base case remains that the bill survives largely intact, with a reasonable probability of expanding further. Investors should fade the noise and focus on the fiscal impulse embedded in Paradigm C: growth-first policy that props up asset markets. We also tackle a client’s question on KISS versus buy-and-hold through the lens of risk management, taxes, and real-world market experience.