《噪声》：一半的判断，是骰子滚出来的（Kahneman 等）

我们怕被冷冰冰的算法决定命运，想要一个有血有肉的“大活人”听我们说。可这本书要告诉你：那个大活人的判断，有一半是骰子滚出来的。本期拆解丹尼尔·卡尼曼 / 奥利维耶·西博尼 / 卡斯·桑斯坦《噪声：人类判断的缺陷》。 ◾ 时间戳 00:01 开场 · 算法，还是大活人？ 02:11 靶子 · 偏差 vs 噪声（两种错误） 05:35 噪声有多少 · 保险审计 55% / 量刑乱象 09:13 连“一次性决策”也有噪声 10:26 事后诸葛亮事务所 · 正常之谷 13:19 情境噪声 · 你是一朵概率云 16:54 三件展品 · 高考作文 / 绩效 / 古代五听 19:36 老祖宗早知道 · 同人不同命 21:57 那干脆交给算法？· 尊严的两难 25:20 决策卫生 · 给判断洗个手 28:17 收口 · 您今儿个吃午饭了吗 ◾ 主题 · 偏差(bias)和噪声(noise)是两种独立的错误，噪声被严重低估 · 同一个案子换个法官、甚至换个时间，判得能差一倍 · 为什么我们集体看不见噪声：人脑是台“圆故事机器” · 中文民间智慧 ↔ 西方学术命名：同人不同命 / 官断十条路 / 清官难断家务事 · 算法更准，但我们要的是“被当人看”——准 vs 尊严的两难 · 决策卫生：拆维度、直觉放最后、多人独立再平均 ◾ 其他平台 Spotify · Apple Podcasts · 小宇宙 · 网易云脑子借我一下 / Borrow My Brain @Borrow_My_Brain

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