Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, China joins Circles Off to break down one of the most unique player prop edges of the last decade. Starting around 2016, China built a reputation moving college football player prop lines at a major sportsbook, sometimes 60 to 80 props a week. When a second sportsbook entered the market and began scraping those openers days later, it created a two season window where China could rebet his own moved lines at their original stale price, all while getting labeled a "fish" and handed higher limits instead of getting cut off. It's a look back at how legalization, lazy odds-making, and old school leg work created a window that most people never even noticed. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow China - https://x.com/chinamaniac OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #CollegeFootball #LegendaryLoopholes #PlayerProps #BettingEdge #CirclesOff #TheHammer #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL weekend chaos, Week Zero heartbreak, and plenty of drama. Aaron Donald is back — so what does that mean for the Rams and their futures? Plus, Jacobs lands on the commissioners list, a fantasy league debacle unfolds, and we investigate the very real possibility that the “49ers guy” is completely fake. We break down the brutal Hawaii beat from Week Zero, roast Knish for celebrating way too early, dive into the Ninth Circuit’s Kalshi ruling, and ask why “pros don’t want to share.” Plus: Storm Buonatony on sports media salaries, the latest GRP saga, and another edition of the Chopping Block. Drop your questions in the chat! Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow GStack- https://x.com/GeorgeTsilfidis 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro To Circle Back5:03 - Aaron Donald Returns to the NFL19:39 - Josh Jacobs' place on the commissioner's list21:31 - NFL Fantasy League Blow-up38:27 - Reactions to the Fake NFL player49:42 - CFB Week 0 Bad Beat 56:11 - Court Ruling w/ Prediction Markets01:02:55 - Pros aren't sharing their picks01:16:02 - Starting a career in sports01:31:15 - GRP gone wild Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week on Circle Back, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Shipper to break down three stories shaking up the prediction markets and sports betting world. The crew dives into a New York Times report that Donald Trump Jr. privately urged a room of Republican state attorneys general to back off regulating prediction markets, arguing that state pushback was being driven by gambling companies protecting their own turf rather than genuine consumer concerns. The panel unpacks what this closed-door pitch means for the ongoing battle between state and federal oversight of the industry, and why prediction markets have become such a political flashpoint heading into the fall. From there, the conversation shifts to a major shift in how prediction markets present their pricing, as platforms move away from familiar American-odds formatting toward straight percentages, a change that's got bettors adjusting their mental math and wondering if more platforms will follow. The show wraps with a look at sharp originators pulling their models and ratings out of public view, as some of the most respected names in the space decide their edge is too valuable to keep sharing for free, and what that shift could mean for bettors who've relied on that public data for years. This episode also marks the final edition of Circle Back Thursday. After more than a year on the air, this is the last time the show will run in this Thursday slot, though Circle Back Monday continues as normal and new content is on the way to fill the Friday spot. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Shipper - https://x.com/ShipTheJustice 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The FINAL edition of Circle Back Thursday 1:43 - Originators are going private on prediction markets 11:04 - Prediction Odds begin to remove American Odds 27:28 - Donald Trump Jr. tells Republican state attorneys general to “back off” 36:21 - RAS early releases 42:15 - Worst settlement rules for fights? 50:11 - Taylor Mathis strikes again 53:54 - Chopping Block: A trip down memory lane 1:09:38 - Thank you for watching Circle Back Thursday! Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SharpBetting #TrumpJr #BettingNews #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is presented by ProphetX. Our guest is ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen — we address the relationship directly at the top of the episode. Jake Benzaquen co-founded ProphetX eight years ago, long before "prediction market" was a phrase anyone outside finance used. In June, ProphetX became the first sports-native platform to win CFTC approval as a regulated exchange — and this conversation covers everything that came with it: the sweepstakes years, the $35 million raise, what's shipping on the product side this football season, and the affiliated market making debate that's dividing the entire industry. Rob also presses Jake on the questions that don't have easy answers — the investor overlap on ProphetX's own platform, the 18-vs-21 age gap between prediction markets and sportsbooks, and what happens if the Supreme Court rules against CFTC jurisdiction entirely. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jake - https://x.com/jakebenzaq OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Opener + Disclosure 1:16 - Who is Jake Benzaquen? 5:08 - The sweepstakes chapter 9:07 - Getting CFTC approval and launching nationwide 19:45 - ProphetX vs the giants - the honest ecosystem conversation 26:09 - The product: payments, RFQ, cash out, the 2.0 app 42:30 - Affiliated market making: the industry's biggest conflict 52:12 - The B2B play 1:02:02 - State vs federal: the regulatory war 1:16:11 - The uncomfortable questions 1:29:43 - The next five years 1:31:33 - +EV / -EV moves, advice to former self 1:38:07 - Outro Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #ProphetX #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CFTC #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SportsTrading #BettingExchange #AffiliatedMarketMaking #NFLBetting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Browns recap covering Deshaun Watson's postgame comments after getting booed plus the Sanders update, and Dae'Quan Wright's stunning exit from the NFL back to LSU; Ashton Jeanty's injury scare and what it means for fantasy owners; Scottie Scheffler playing through hand, foot & mouth disease at the BMW Championship and whether golf needs injury reporting; Establish The Run shutting down their pick-selling service; a separate wild stat showing MLB favorites went 15-0 in a day; the Raheem Palmer/Pam Moldanado interaction; plus Chopping Block. Drop your questions in the chat! Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: / discord ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - / circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - / circlesoffhq FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 / @thehammerhq 🏈 / @fwdprogresshq 📚 / @hitthebookshq SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro To Circle Back01:30 – Browns Recap: Watson's Postgame Comments & Sanders Update15:50 – Dae'Quan Wright Leaves NFL for LSU23:37 – Ashton Jeanty Injury Update32:47 – Scottie Scheffler's Hand, Foot & Mouth Diagnosis33:30 – Does Golf Need Injury Reporting?48:20 – Establish The Run Shuts Down Pick Service1:04:47 – MLB Favorites Go 15-01:11:11 – Raheem Palmer / Pam Moldanado Interaction1:24:20 - BIG CHANGES HAPPENING!1:29:02 – Chopping Block1:58:04 – Outro / Q&A Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #Browns #DeshaunWatson #ShedeurSanders #ClevelandBrowns #NFL #NCAAFootball #AshtonJeanty #FantasyFootball #Raiders #ScottieScheffler #BMWChampionship #PGATour #EstablishTheRun #SportsBetting #ChoppingBlock #NFLNews Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Prediction markets are having a moment of reckoning. Sharp bettors are starting to call out PM platforms for the same behavior that made traditional sportsbooks notorious: squeezing out the very winners who helped legitimize the space in the first place. From new maker fees quietly eating into sharp profits to a "pro gambler arc" meme capturing the entire cycle of boom, backlash, and burnout, this week's Circle Back digs into whether prediction markets are already repeating the mistakes of the sportsbooks they were supposed to replace. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined live by Joey Knish, Thon Misser, and Peanut to break down the fee structures, the hypocrisy accusations flying between market makers and sharp takers, and what it all means for anyone trying to get a long-term edge in this new market. Presented by ProphetX. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22 🔵 Follow Peanut - https://x.com/Peanut_Bettor 🔵 Follow Thon - https://x.com/ThonMisser OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Peanut, & Joey Knish 1:31 - Was Kalish Right All Along? 9:56 - Market Makers vs. Sharp Takers 17:38 - The Pro Gambler Arc 23:41 - +EV Move Of The Week 31:19 - NFL Adopting The March Madness Schedule 36:50 - The Wrong One To Receive An Affiliate Badge 44:16 - Announcement 46:57 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CircleBack #ProphetX #SharpBettors #SportsBettingPodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A post about an MIT professor's coin flip (win $125, lose $100) went viral claiming that refusing the bet was the smart move. The psychology is real. The advice is backwards. This is the difference between risk aversion as wisdom and risk aversion as a leak... and the one number from the story that proves it. In this video, Rob breaks down why a single coin flip with a roughly 55% implied win probability in your favor still gets rejected by most people, why that instinct is completely rational at life changing stakes and completely irrational at dinner money stakes, and why the $43 students were willing to pay to walk away from the bet is the most damning detail in the entire story. Then Rob shows the fix: what happens to that exact same flip once you take it 100 times, then 1,000 times, and why repetition (not bravery) is the actual engine behind every profitable sports bettor, market maker, and insurance company that has ever existed. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Viral Flip 1:07 - The Full Story (and the $43) 2:10 - The Part That's Actually True 3:17 - Where It All Falls Apart 4:15 - Paying a Tax on Your Own Fear 5:11 - One Flip vs One Hundred 6:44 - The Dividing Line 8:39 - Sponsored by ProphetX 9:46 - Which Situation Are You In? 10:53 - Circle Back, Mondays 1PM EST Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammer #ExpectedValue #RiskAversion #BehavioralEconomics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL preseason line movement is under the microscope after a wild stretch of results: teams that have moved 1.5+ points or more on the spread this season are 0-8, and 23-51 since 2024, according to Big Al McMordie's numbers. That trend has reignited a fierce debate about whether closing line value still holds up as a betting principle, with some pointing to small sample sizes and starters entering games as the real driver behind the movement. Also on deck: reactions to Pat McAfee's surprise album release, plus the fallout from Circa CEO Derek Stevens' pointed comments questioning the legitimacy and tax structure of peer-to-peer prediction markets. Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 1:18 - NFL Preseason CLV debate 16:35 - Pat McAfee dropped an album 35:19 - Breaking News on Kawhi Leonard 42:12 - Derek Stevens sounds off on prediction markets 52:29 - Gen Z is moving from stocks to sports betting 1:03:11 - CFTC probe into "mention markets" 1:11:17 - Hypotheticals 1:30:16 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CLV #NFLBetting #ClosingLineValue #SportsBetting #NFLPreseason #CircleBack #CirclesOff #ProphetX #PatMcAfee #DerekStevens #PredictionMarkets #TheHammer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Prediction markets and sportsbooks might look identical on the surface. Same lines, same moneylines, same spreads. But legally and structurally, they're nothing alike. In this conversation, Jacob sits down with Captain Jack Andrews to break down why prediction markets don't meet the legal definition of gambling the way sportsbooks do, walking through the "chance, consideration, and reward" test, the Wire Act's business-of-betting standard, and why the operator side, not the consumer side, is what actually matters. They also dig into the "Duck Test," the case that could eventually land in front of the Supreme Court, and why the outcome could determine whether prediction markets are regulated state by state or protected under federal preemption. If you've ever wondered whether prediction markets are just sportsbooks in disguise, this is the conversation that settles it. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Jack - https://x.com/capjack2000 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 00:00 – Prediction Markets Are Not Sportsbooks 01:18 – The 3 Components Of Gambling 04:38 – The Business Of Betting & The Duck Test 06:29 – ProphetX 07:29 – Same Bet, Different Mechanics 08:59 – The Real Goal: Getting to the Supreme Court 11:45 – The Sports Traders Union 13:02 – Fundamental Fairness Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #Sportsbooks #CFTC #SportsTradingUnion #BettingRegulation #CirclesOff #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rishi Bets has been posting on X since 2011 with over 35,000 posts and a following nowhere near what that volume would suggest, and it's exactly why the account works. He posts his bet sizes, his wins, and his losses in real time, no cherry-picking. Rob Pizzola sits down with Rishi for a full interview covering his case for prediction markets over traditional sportsbooks, the World Cup position that went horribly wrong and the choice to post the whole thing publicly, where the line should be on which markets can and can't exist, and a run of hot takes on the sports betting community that don't pull punches. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Rishi - https://x.com/Rishibets OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro 1:13 - Who is Rishi? 11:24 - How he actually bets 29:37 - The case for prediction markets 58:13 - The Mbappé mistake 1:12:11 - First big loss 1:17:30 - On being stubborn 1:25:43 - Rapid round: things that trigger Rishi 1:34:00 - Sharp vs recreational, the bigger picture 1:40:07 - +EV and -EV moves of the week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #RishiBets #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #WorldCupBetting #SharpBettor #SportsBettingPodcast #BettingCommunity Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rob and Jacob were on the ground at Bet Bash 2026 (August 4-7), and they're bringing back the biggest storylines from the event, including the fallout from Steve Fezzik's touting ethics seminar. Geoff missed the trip, and shares his perspective from watching it all unfold from home. The crew also dives into the latest out of the WNBA, from a player's claims of white privilege in the league to Enes Freedom and Royce White declaring for the WNBA. Plus, sportsbooks are taking an increasingly clear stance against prediction markets, and the guys break down whether it's coming from a place of genuine concern or fear of the competition. Join host Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg on this episode of Circle Back, presented by ProphetX. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 3:49 - BetBash Reviews & Thoughts 13:35 - BetBash Dunk Tank 24:55 - The Ethics Of Touting Seminar 35:51 - Billy Walters on PMs 44:38 - BetBash Representation 55:26 - WNBA State of Affairs 1:23:09 - Sportsbooks Challenge The Idea Of Prediction Markets 1:29:31 - Get Better, Bet Fewer Games? 1:37:40 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #BetBash2026 #CircleBack #SportsBetting #WNBA #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #SportsBettingPodcast #GamblingTwitter #TheHammer #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You project a running back for 80 rushing yards. The line is 72.5. Nearly eight yards clear — an easy over, right? By the end of this video, that same exact setup might have no bet at all. Rob Pizzola walks through the full process of turning a raw projection into an actual price — not a vibe, not a gut call, a real number you can trust. Starting from a simple two-minute version anyone can use, then building layer by layer into how the market actually prices probability, why your model's mean and the market's median aren't the same thing, and why that gap is the single most common way a good projection turns into a bad bet. By the end, you'll be able to price any prop, and every alternate line on the board, from nothing but a projection and a little bit of math. This is Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. ⬇️ Download the Excel file: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j2dlXlL1fgN4rLoI1Q_mTEFpwpnXvr0f/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=110512856455811077194&rtpof=true&sd=true INSTRUCTIONS: Once the file is open, in the top left go to File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔴 Don't Use AI For Sports Betting Until You Watch This: https://youtu.be/ykICNBiFubg 🔴 Why Betting Without Watching The Market Is A Mistake: https://youtu.be/ZhNnPtayBoM 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Question Everyone Gets Wrong 1:42 - A Projection Is Not A Probability 3:30 - LAYER 1: The Two (Eight*) Minute Version 11:22 - LAYER 2: What The Market Actually Thinks 14:52 - Sponsored by ProphetX 16:41 - LAYER 2: The Player's Real Spread 19:15 - Volume vs Efficiency 23:20 - LAYER 3: The Thing That Flips Bets 29:10 - Which Props This Applies To 30:59 - Pricing Every Alternate Line 33:01 - The Honest Caveat Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #NFLProps #PropBetting #BettingEducation #SharpBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #NFLBetting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The WNBA can't get out of its own way this week. The league's official account posted — then deleted — video of Paige Bueckers and Angel Reese casually discussing a $400 All-Star Weekend bet, a clear violation of the CBA's anti-wagering rules, and it's raising real questions about how a league office lets that get anywhere near publish. Meanwhile, Seattle Storm co-owner Celeste Keaton was fined and suspended for five home games after confronting two teenage fans holding signs supporting Sophie Cunningham, adding another layer to a franchise's messy week. Elsewhere in the gambling world, sports betting influencer Manny Cortez is back in the news as his lawsuit over a $500,000 Celtics championship bet moves toward a February trial — the sportsbook used his winning ticket to market itself on social media, then refused to pay him, citing his use of a third party to place the wager. And the fallout continues from Netflix's new prediction markets documentary, as the sports content platform prominently featured in the film's trailer keeps taking heat online for how it's chosen to talk about its own role in it. Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Joey Knish join Jacob Gramegna to break down all of it on this week's Circle Back. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Berman, Porter & Joey Knish 1:17 - WNBA gambling drama 10:46 - Why does the WNBA keep doing it to themselves? 23:24 - NFL Win Totals 27:51 - Winible reacts to the Netflix documentary 34:51 - Another unjurt sportsbook stiff? 44:21 - Rufus Peabody vs. Matt Kalish 54:00 -Did they really fall off? 59:35 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #WNBA #SportsBetting #CircleBack #ProphetX #NBA #Celtics #PredictionMarkets #Netflix #GamblingTwitter #SportsBettingNews Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Isaac Rose-Berman was one of the featured sharp bettors in Netflix's new documentary, Instadocs: The Prediction Games — and he's here to break down everything that happened behind the scenes. In this conversation, Isaac details how he got connected to the production, what he was originally told the documentary would focus on, and how ten hours of filming got condensed into just a few minutes of screen time. He addresses the backlash to the Winnable meetup segment and whether those bettors were ever actually winning, breaks down a moment of what he calls "slightly deceptive editing" involving his own trading numbers, and gives his honest take on the framing of the "ideal counterparty" cut to a 19-year-old struggling bettor. Isaac also shares his thoughts on the overall tone of the documentary, why he felt it lacked a strong defense of prediction markets, what he wishes had made the final cut, and what he hopes viewers ultimately take away from watching it. Jacob Gramegna hosts this conversation on Circles Off, covering the World Cup trading scenes, the fee structure discussions that got cut, market maker vs. taker dynamics, and Isaac's honest assessment of whether this documentary is a fair introduction to prediction markets. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Introduction 0:47 - The Filming Experience 3:06 - The Early Sentiment 6:32 - The Final Product 11:59 - What Was Missing From The Final Product? 16:41 - The Trailer Backlash 20:12 - Reactions To The Full Release 27:35 - Dissecting Specific Moments 41:18 - The Product Overall 46:01 - What's Next? Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #NetflixDocumentary #SportsBetting #TradingMarkets #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Netflix just dropped a documentary on the prediction markets boom, and the trailer alone sparked backlash from sharp bettors and skeptics before the film even released. We break down the doc, the reaction, and what it means for the industry. Plus, LeBron James is officially a Philadelphia 76er, and we dig into the betting angle: how the Sixers' title odds shifted, the sheer volume of money traded on his next-team market, and what it says about his legacy. We also cover an Iowa bettor suing a major sportsbook for $14 million after they voided his bets on a pricing error he exploited, a fascinating look at house rules, loopholes, and where the line is drawn. Join host Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola and Jason Cooper as they break down all the latest storylines from the world of sports betting. Circle Back is part of the Circles Off network, brought to you by The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/TakesByJ OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Jason Cooper 1:26 - LeBron James signs with the Philadelphia 76ers 22:44 - Jackson Koivun wins in his third professional start 30:07 - More weekend recap in sports 41:10 - Netflix's Prediction Market Documentary 57:16 - Crazy score correction in this MLB game 1:04:37 - Sportsbooks refusing to pay "winnings" 1:16:05 - Reading your comments 1:20:09 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CircleBack #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #LeBronJames #Sixers76ers #NetflixDocumentary Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week on Circle Back, the crew dives into the Miami Heat's YouTube slip-up, a scheduled livestream titled "LeBron James Introductory Press Conference" for July 27th that got posted, then quickly deleted. The team says it was a mistake made while preparing for a possible signing, but that hasn't stopped the theories. Was this a genuine accident, or a deliberate leak designed to move the needle on prediction markets before anything is even official? From there, the conversation shifts to prediction markets more broadly, after a platform CEO publicly admitted a majority of users lose money. Is that refreshing honesty, or a red flag? We compare it to loss rates at traditional sportsbooks, casinos, and horse tracks to find out if the number is really as bad as it sounds. Then we dig into a new report showing nearly half of all sports event contract volume in the country comes from just two states without legal sports betting, California and Texas, and debate whether that's really a "gold rush" or something else entirely. Hosted live by Jacob Gramegna, joined by Isaac Rose-Berman, Joey Knish, and Mike. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Mike - https://x.com/Peanut_Bettor 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Berman, Mike & Joey Knish 1:26 - LeBron Free Agency Saga 16:58 - Only 70% lose here? 27:50 - Pushing an agenda? 44:37 - ESPN layoffs 53:27 - Reading your comments 58:26 - Valid move for the golf course? 1:05:29 - Back to reality post World Cup Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CircleBack #CirclesOff #TheHammer #LeBronJames #NBAFreeAgency #NBA #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #ProphetX #California #Texas #NBASchedule Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rob Pizzola sits down solo for a candid state-of-the-channel monologue, no guest, no educational breakdown, just an honest look at where Circles Off is and how it got here. Rob talks through the origins of the channel with Johnny from Betstamp, the plateau that led to the pivot into Circle Back, and the business reality behind The Hammer that most viewers never see, including years of building the company without taking a salary. He also gets into what actually drives him to keep making educational content, why bad betting advice in the space gets under his skin, and why he still does this even though he doesn't have to. This one runs long and stays unpolished on purpose. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔴 State of the Sports Betting Space: https://youtu.be/G9nr_8YNf3Q?si=Xu7AyuWJAHSXXzRj 🔴 This Sports Betting Blog Called Out EVERYONE (Including Us): https://youtu.be/33j9gOpjuP4?si=WqZ4zhcuWx2D0aNZ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Chris - https://x.com/flupnolide OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - An Honest One 0:57 - On Feedback (and 25k) 2:36 - How This Channel Started 4:30 - Why It Changed 6:47 - The Business Nobody Sees 9:11 - Sponsored by ProphetX 10:27 - What Actually Drives Me 13:04 - The Stuff That Really Gets Me 14:48 - Why I Still Do This 16:00 - The Part I Hate 16:59 - Where My Head Is At Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #RobPizzola #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SportsBetting #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Spain won the World Cup final 1-0 over Argentina in extra time, with Ferran Torres scoring the winner after Argentina played the entire match down a man following a red card and failed to register a shot until the 117th minute. The match was overshadowed by a chaotic post-game and halftime spectacle, including Donald Trump's involvement in the festivities. In golf, Ryan Fox won the Open Championship, but the bigger story was the cheating controversy surrounding Bryson DeChambeau, whose penalty situation dominated golf media coverage. And in sports betting media, Twitter has banned over 40 scam handicapper accounts in a major crackdown, officially barring paid gambling promotions and cracking down on inauthentic engagement tactics used by capper networks. Join host Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg on this episode of Circle Back, the show breaking down the biggest stories, drama, and storylines in the sports betting world. Circle Back is part of Circles Off and The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 2:13 - World Cup Final Reaction: Spain defeats Argentina 1-0 24:40 - Open Championship; Ryan Fox wins the 154th British Open 35:38 - Bryson DeChambeau cheating scandal 54:51 - Fanatics Fest 1:02:33 - Jeff Nadu's birthday bash did not go to plan 1:17:31 - Twitter cracks down on "scam" handicappers 1:25:35 - Cardinals personnel executive suspended by NFL 1:34:12 - Reading your comments 1:45:20 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #WorldCup #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #OpenChampionship #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Argentina stunned England with a late 2-1 comeback to set up a World Cup final showdown with Spain, and the reaction is pouring in. A viral take from China (@Chinamaniac) claiming connections matter more than skill or modeling ability in sports betting has sharp bettors pushing back, with many pointing to prediction markets as an accessible alternative. And a wild story is breaking about a White House staffer who's reportedly made over $100,000 betting on prediction markets tied to the president's own speeches, using inside knowledge of what was coming before it was said. Jacob Gramegna hosts Circle Back, the live show breaking down the biggest news, drama, and hot topics from Gambling Twitter, joined this week by Thon Misser, Joey Knish, and Isaac Rose-Berman. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/joeyknish22 🔵 Follow Thon - https://x.com/ThonMisser 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Berman, Thon Misser & Joey Knish 3:02 - The World Cup Final is set 19:38 - Home Run Derby 27:38 - Skill vs. Connections 35:02 - Betting on flight delays 39:21 - Trump's teleprompter operator allegedly made $100k+ 42:58 - Prediction markets through history 54:23 - Biggest edge of the year? Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #WorldCupFinal #ArgentinaVsSpain #PredictionMarkets #GamblingTwitter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rob Pizzola reacts live to Chris "Flup" Dierkes' viral Substack post detailing a multi-million dollar downswing — and what it actually takes to trust your process through it. Flup, one of the sharpest bettors in the game and a Circle Back regular, wrote candidly about adverse selection, the difference between ego and confidence, spotting real edge vs. variance, closing line value, tilt, and why "just a skill issue" isn't the full story on getting limited. Rob goes section by section, agreeing in some spots, pushing back hard in others — especially on the debate over grinding through a downswing vs. stepping away, and whether getting limited really is just a skill issue. If you've ever doubted your process after a rough stretch, this one's for you. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📖 Read Chris' article for yourself: https://substack.com/home/post/p-200069336 🔴 This Sports Betting Blog Called Out EVERYONE (Including Us): https://youtu.be/33j9gOpjuP4 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Chris - https://x.com/flupnolide OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #CirclesOff #ClosingLineValue #BettingEducation #ProfessionalBettor #AdverseSelection #SportsBettingTips #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Conor McGregor's UFC return lasted just over a minute before a devastating knee injury ended his comeback against Max Holloway — and now the conspiracy theories are flying. Did McGregor know he was hurt before he ever stepped in the cage? The crew breaks down what it means for his career, the UFC's future plans, and how the betting markets reacted to one of the wildest outcomes in recent memory. Plus, Argentina's win over Switzerland in the World Cup quarterfinals is still generating controversy after a contentious VAR review led to a second yellow card and an early red for Breel Embolo. And finally, the crew dives into a brewing sportsbook scandal involving MLB star Bryce Harper, who unknowingly became part of a VIP program controversy after a bettor with a documented gambling addiction lost nearly $2 million — raising serious questions about how sportsbooks treat their highest-value, most vulnerable customers. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/TakesByJ OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Jason Cooper 2:29 - UFC 329 Fallout: McGregor loses in 69 seconds 22:23 - Argentina with the VAR assist against Switzerland? 31:32- England move past Norway despite spy cam controversy 44:51 - More weekend coverage 50:25 - Bryce Harper caught in sportsbook VIP scandal 1:07:47 - Reading your comments 1:17:50 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #UFC329 #ConorMcGregor #MaxHolloway #WorldCup #FIFAWorldCup #BryceHarper #CircleBack #TheHammerBettingNetwork #GamblingTwitter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Circle Back is back with another live episode, breaking down the biggest stories and chaos from Gambling Twitter this week. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Joey Knish as the crew dives into the wild finish to the World Cup: Team USA's elimination at the hands of Belgium amid controversy over President Trump's call to FIFA president Gianni Infantino, Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal's exit from the tournament and the prediction market frenzy over whether he shed a tear, Conor McGregor's massive return to the Octagon against Max Holloway at UFC 329, and the growing allegations that prominent sports betting figure Mikki Mase may be broke after asking fans to use their betting accounts on his behalf. Tune in live for hot takes, sharp analysis, and unfiltered reactions to everything moving the needle in sports betting and gambling media this week. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/joeyknish22 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Berman, Porter & Joey Knish 1:38 - The USMNT were embarrassed by Belgium after FIFA's circus 11:41 - Did Cristionao Ronaldo cry after Portugal's loss? Bettors want to know 20:08 - Connor McGregor vs. Max Holloway preview + odds 30:01 - Bettors allege that Mikki Mase has gone broke 36:46 - Big Brother 28 42:50 - Reading Your Comments 53:46 - The new way to get accounts? Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #GamblingTwitter #SportsBetting #CircleBack #WorldCup2026 #ConorMcGregor #UFC329 #CristianoRonaldo #MikkiMase #FIFAWorldCup #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most people are using AI as a betting oracle, and it's costing them money. Rob Pizzola breaks down the right way to actually use AI for sports betting — not by asking it who wins tonight's games, but by treating it as a research assistant, a coder, and a data scientist that does the labor while you bring the judgment. Rob walks through a real example from the World Cup, where he built an expected goals model with AI, ran a Poisson distribution across dozens of markets, and found a spot where his numbers diverged from the market by 4% — including exactly how that bet turned out and why the result doesn't matter as much as the process. If you've ever asked ChatGPT or Claude for picks, this video will change how you think about AI in betting for good. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔴 Why Betting Without Watching The Market Is A Mistake : https://youtu.be/ZhNnPtayBoM 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Dumbest Way to Use AI in Betting 0:48 - The Two Camps 1:59 - Quick Context 2:55 - What AI is Actually Good For 4:24 - Example 1: Coding & Datasets 7:12 - Example 2: Automation & Time 9:22 - Sponsored by ProphetX 10:47 - The World Cup Bet 14:15 - Is This Model Even Good Enough? 16:54 - What NOT to Do 18:05 - How Are You Using AI? 18:28 - The Bottom Line Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #AIBetting #ChatGPT #Claude #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #BettingStrategy #BettingTips #WorldCupBetting #RobPizzola #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SportsBettingAI #BettingModel #Gambling Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The FIFA World Cup is in absolute chaos after reports that Florian Balogun’s red card suspension was reversed ahead of USA vs Belgium following a high-profile intervention involving Donald Trump, sparking major backlash over corruption concerns, competitive integrity, and whether governing bodies are being influenced at the highest level. The crew also breaks down a separate controversy involving Spotify requesting removal of its branding from prediction-market-linked ranking manipulation allegations, raising fresh questions about how betting-adjacent markets could be impacting real-world platforms. On top of that, England’s dramatic 3–2 win over Mexico in one of the most chaotic matches of the tournament is being called an all-time World Cup classic. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and George Tsilfidis as the panel unpacks the biggest stories from across the World Cup and sports betting world, including the integrity concerns surrounding FIFA decisions, the intersection of markets and platform manipulation, and the fallout from a historic England-Mexico clash that has fans and analysts debating its place among the greatest matches ever played. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow George - https://x.com/georgetsilfidis 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, George Tsilfidis and Geoff Fienberg 1:46 - Donald Trump asks FIFA to allow Florian Balogun to play the USA's R16 match vs. Belgium 22:03 - More World Cup: England/Mexico, Canada loses, etc. 35:51 - Reaction to the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 44:58 - 2026 MLB All-Star selections controversies 51:05 - NHL offer sheet drama 59:12 - Spotify goes at prediction markets 1:05:09 - Charlie Sheen lost 18 bets in a row 1:15:38 - Reading your comments 1:25:10 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Live on this week’s Circle Back, the crew breaks down one of the biggest cross-sport news days of the year. The United States have advanced in the FIFA World Cup, but the win is overshadowed after a controversial red card to Florian Balogun that will now see him miss a massive matchup against Belgium. The panel discusses what the decision means on the field — and what it could mean for the betting markets moving forward. The biggest story of the day comes out of the NBA, where Malik Beasley has been indicted on federal charges tied to an alleged sports betting scheme involving point shaving and prop bets, with reports indicating a voluntary surrender is being coordinated this week. The conversation digs into what this means for the league, the integrity of sports betting, and why this case could have ripple effects well beyond one player. Later, the crew reacts to Jordan Spieth’s comments on betting in golf, and the perceived contradiction between his public stance and his partnership history in the space. Hosted by Jacob Gramegna on Circle Back, part of Circles Off on The Hammer Betting Network, joined this week by Thon Misser, Joey Knish, and Isaac Rose-Berman. Circle Back goes live every Thursday at 4 PM ET breaking down sports betting news, industry drama, and the biggest stories across sports. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/joeyknish22 🔵 Follow Thon - https://x.com/thonmisser 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, Jason Cooper and Geoff Fienberg 3:03 - Jaylen Brown and Kawhi Leonard trades shake the NBA 16:30 - Malik Beasley indicted on gambling charges 27:11 - USA advances at the World Cup but loses Florian Balogun to suspension 38:37 - Matt Miller breaking news 41:19 - Did another bettor expose a big edge? 45:27 - Reading your comments 51:27 - The Joey Tunes lending company 54:55 - Jordan Speith's hypocritical take on betting in golf 1:00:08 - Chopping Block 1:05:02 - Joey Knish's Hot Dog contest banger Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #NBA #WorldCup #sportsbetting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most bettors think their edge comes from projection models, numbers, or opinions they’ve built on their own work. But there’s one thing many of them ignore completely: the market. In this video, Rob Pizzola breaks down why ignoring line movement and market information is one of the most expensive mistakes a bettor can make — not because the market is always right, but because it constantly provides free information that can improve your timing, your price, and your decision-making. From understanding when to bet early vs late, to recognizing steam moves, to spotting when your projection is wildly out of sync with sharp money, this is a deep dive into how the market actually functions in sports betting. Bet timing can matter just as much as the bet itself, line movement can create bets that didn’t exist moments earlier, and ignoring market signals can hide major EV opportunities. At the same time, your model being different doesn’t automatically mean it’s right, and sharp money plus liquidity at key moments matters more than most bettors realize. This isn’t about blindly following line movement. It’s about understanding that your projection and the market are not enemies — they are two inputs that should be used together. And if you’re only using one of them, you’re leaving information — and likely money — on the table. If you want to think about betting at a higher level, this is where it starts. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔴 Fixed Fights, Stiffed Partners, and a Decade of Sharp MMA Betting: https://youtu.be/Hje5wiHVwhg 🔴 Stop Betting Player Props Until You Watch This: https://youtu.be/B8JTvjk0xh0?si=pw0ZTyli-De2Z8Sg 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Ignoring the Market is Expensive 0:44 - The Comment That Inspired This Video 2:25 - Where the Commenter is Right 3:49 - Quick Context 4:24 - Your Projection + The Market = More Than Either Alone 6:24 - Example 1: Bet Timing 9:03 - Example 2: Line Movement Creates Bets 11:53 - Sponsored by ProphetX 13:21 - Example 3: The Gut Check on Your Own Work 14:59 - The Arrogance of Ignoring the Market 19:00 - Catch Me Live on Pizza Buffet 21:14 - Comments — Convince Me 21:37 - The Bottom Line Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #BettingStrategy #LineMovement #SportsBettingTips #SportsBettingCommunity #BettingMarkets #PredictionMarkets #RobPizzola #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On today's Circle Back, we break down the controversy surrounding Matt Miller after years of allegations resurfaced following his recent GoFundMe campaign, discuss Canada's dramatic 1-0 stoppage-time win over South Africa to advance at the World Cup, look at the latest World Cup odds including the United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and debate the NFL tampering questions surrounding Adam Schefter, Robert Kraft, A.J. Brown and Diana Russini. Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg and Jason Cooper for another episode of Circle Back on the Circles Off YouTube channel. The crew reacts to the biggest stories from the sports world, sports betting and gambling media, offering analysis, opinions and discussion. Presented by ProphetX. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/takesbyj 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, Jason Cooper and Geoff Fienberg 1:47 - Canada defeats South Africa to advance to the Round of 16 18:02 - More World Cup drama 33:05 - Viktor Hovland wins the Travelers Championship after an overnight delay 41:28 - Matt Miller scam allegations unearthed after scary car accident 1:00:30 - Adam Schefter potentially involved with tampering in the NFL? 1:16:28 - Reading your comments 1:21:03 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today on Circle Back LIVE, we’re diving into the biggest gambling conversations happening right now — from World Cup betting angles and market reactions to the growing debate between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks. The panel breaks down where sharp bettors are finding edges, what’s driving the latest sportsbook vs prediction market discussion, and the “hidden” sources of betting information that most people overlook. We also react to the biggest stories and discourse shaping the betting world this week, including what actually matters versus what’s just noise. Circle Back LIVE streams every Thursday at 4 PM ET on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. Hosted by Jacob Gramegna, joined by Alex Moretto (Director of Content at The Hammer), Isaac Rose-Berman (sharp tennis bettor), and Mike “Mr. Peanutbettor” (professional sports bettor). 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Alex - https://x.com/alexjmoretto 🔵 Follow Mike - https://x.com/peanut_bettor 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Peanut Bettor, Isaac Rose-Berman, Alex Moretto and Jacob Gramegna 1:21 - World Cup 24:18 - 2+ goals markets 39:04 - NHL/NBA trades 48:33 - Matt Kalish sounds off again 55:11 - Didn't get let it 59:33 - Reading your comments 1:05:09 - The best thing that can happen in gambling 1:08:49 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #circleback #worldcup #sportsbetting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Every time a new sport gets going or a new account starts popping up on social media, the same question starts flooding in: should I trust this person’s record? Rob Pizzola breaks down the exact checklist he uses when evaluating whether a sports bettor is actually legit or just riding variance and good timing. From win-loss records that don’t tell the full story, to missing tracking metrics like closing line value, timing, and market access, this video exposes the red flags most people completely ignore. Most bettors are not evaluating the right things. They look at ROI, win streaks, or a clean-looking record and assume it translates. But the reality is that how someone tracks, where they bet, and what prices they actually get matters just as much—if not more—than the results themselves. This is a framework designed to help you avoid one of the most common mistakes in sports betting: tailing someone whose results don’t actually translate to your real-world betting experience. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔴 Stop Betting Player Props Until You Watch This: https://youtu.be/B8JTvjk0xh0?si=pw0ZTyli-De2Z8Sg 🔴 I Bought Sports Betting Picks for Years… Here’s What I Learned: https://youtu.be/EMjvjIAJoQA?si=rgilnK8fHSg1FeQT 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Another DM, Another Capper 2:46 - Win/Loss Only Is Missing the Point 5:17 - The Cherry-Picked Record Trap 6:31 - Tracking Platforms — What Actually Matters 9:00 - Books You Don't Have Access To 12:11 - The Trap Even Good Cappers Fall Into 16:09 - Fake Stakes at Soft Books 18:16 - Comments — What Did I Miss? 18:48 - What You Should Actually Be Asking 21:26 - The Bottom Line Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #BettingTips #SportsBettors #BettingStrategy #ClosingLineValue #ProphetX #CirclesOff #RobPizzola #BettingMarkets #PredictionMarkets #BettingAdvice #GamblingStrategy #BettingEducation #SportsAnalytics #BettingCommunity Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Wall Street Journal investigation into a major prediction market platform alleging offshore promotional tactics, misleading creator campaigns, and staged “wins” sparks debate about how far marketing manipulation may be going in the space. The crew also reacts to a blockbuster NHL trade sending Brady Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers, and breaks down Cabo Verde’s stunning World Cup run after securing another major result against Uruguay as they push toward a historic knockout stage appearance in their debut tournament. Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and Jason Cooper on Circle Back, part of The Hammer Betting Network, to break down the biggest sports betting, sports media, and global sports stories of the week with sharp debate across the panel. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/takesbyj 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, Jason Cooper and Geoff Fienberg 1:20 - Wyndham Clark wins the US Open 12:51 - Brady Tkachuk traded to the Florida Panthers 27:48 - Cabo Verde earns another shock draw at the World Cup 43:19 - Freddy is starting to ruffle some feathers 54:16 - WSJ investigation into Polymarket + Rob Rant 1:04:12 - Are we cooked? (Taylor Lewan) 1:10:11 - Survivor rake vs. no rake 1:19:35 - Reading your comments 1:29:38 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #circleback #worldcup #predictionmarket #tkachuk #wyndhamclark Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Prediction markets are putting real pressure on traditional sportsbooks as reduced-vig pricing continues to reshape how odds are being offered across the industry. The panel breaks down how books are still hanging onto outdated pricing structures—like heavy two-way lines and inefficient World Cup markets—while prediction markets push tighter spreads and more competitive pricing models. The conversation dives into what that actually means for bettors, including why small pricing edges (even down to cent-level differences in straddles) compound into a massive long-term advantage, and whether sportsbooks are being forced to adapt or risk being outpaced entirely. The group also unpacks the broader shift in betting philosophy—from “democratization” to what might actually be a rising meritocracy—where sharper bettors and better information tracking are starting to matter more than ever. That leads into a deeper debate on bet tracking, where third-party tools, sponsorship incentives, and logistical limitations (especially across different jurisdictions like Nevada) collide with the reality that many serious bettors still rely on manual spreadsheets to stay disciplined and consistent. Hosted by Jacob Gramegna, this episode features Mike (Peanut Bettor), Porter (@BAanalytics_), Jacob Gramegna, and Thon Misser as they debate the biggest structural changes hitting sports betting right now. It’s a LIVE episode of Circle Back on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network, streaming every Thursday at 4 PM ET, breaking down betting market inefficiencies, industry drama, and the evolving edge between sportsbooks and bettors. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on X - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob Gramegna on X - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Porter on X - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ 🔵 Follow Mike (Peanut Bettor) on X - https://x.com/Peanut_Bettor 🔵 Follow Thon Misser on X - https://x.com/ThonMisser OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Mike, Porter, Thon Maker and Jacob Gramegna 1:58 - Prediction markets are taking over? 12:17 - The best time to be a sports bettor? 19:57 - World Cup 28:37 - Third-party tracking debates 37:34 - Wasting time price shopping 44:31 - Suspended from betting 49:35 - More transparency to wagers 54:55 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #sportsbetting #predictionmarkets #sportsbooks #bettingedge #circlesoff #thehammer #prophetx #bettingmarkets #sportsanalytics #bettingstrategy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Circles Off, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) for a unique tier list breakdown that ranks sports betting personalities based on something rarely discussed in betting debates: their educational backgrounds — and how useful those degrees actually are in becoming a winning bettor. The discussion runs through a full S to D tier system, evaluating a wide range of fields including applied statistics, economics, business analytics, engineering, finance, psychology, law, and more. Rather than judging individuals, the focus is on the strengths and weaknesses of each discipline when applied to betting markets and decision-making under uncertainty. Throughout the episode, Matt uses real-world examples from across the betting space, including well-known figures like Rob Pizzola and other contributors from The Hammer Betting Network, to illustrate how different educational paths can shape (or fail to shape) betting edge. From highly technical backgrounds like engineering and statistics to more generalist fields like business and communications, the conversation breaks down what actually translates into an edge: structured thinking, probability understanding, and real-world application versus purely theoretical knowledge. This is a deeper look at the intersection between education and betting performance, and whether formal training actually matters when you're facing the markets every day. New Circles Off episodes drop weekly — subscribe for more conversations on sports betting, prediction markets, and the people trying to beat them. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up! 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Matt - https://x.com/PlusEVAnalytics 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CirclesOff #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #BettingPodcast #PlusEVAnalytics #MattBuchalter #JacobGramegna #RobPizzola #TheHammerBettingNetwork #SportsAnalytics #BettingStrategy #Probability #DataDriven #Edge #BettingAnalysis #SportsWagering #AppliedStatistics #Economics #Finance #Engineering #Law #Psychology #BusinessAnalytics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The UFC 250 DM scandal involving Daniel Cormier and Eric Trump sits at the center of the episode after alleged Instagram messages surfaced suggesting requests for UFC betting intel ahead of fights at the White House, with screenshots posted and then deleted as both sides deny authenticity and claim hacking, fueling debate over whether the story is real or fabricated. The crew also reacts to the Knicks winning the NBA championship and what that result means for how the season is being interpreted, along with World Cup criticism focused on hydration breaks and concerns that the tournament has felt underwhelming so far. Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and Jason Cooper on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network, as they break down the biggest sports betting and sports media stories of the week with sharp debate and differing perspectives across the panel. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up! 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/takesbyj 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, Jason Cooper and Geoff Fienberg 1:24 - The New York Knicks are NBA Champions 15:59 - The Carolina Hurricanes are Stanley Cup Champions 25:35 - FIFA World Cup Fever 45:51 - Quick weekend recap 54:09 - Eric Trump looking for tips from Daniel Cormier? 1:13:00 - Raheem Palmer calls us out 1:24:57 - Dumbest edge ever? 1:32:20 - Reading your comments 1:38:43 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #UFC250 #EricTrump #DanielCormier #UFC #UFCBetting #Knicks #NBAChampionship #WorldCup #HydrationBreaks #CirclesOff #ProphetX #PredictionMarkets #TheHammerBettingNetwork #RobPizzola #GeoffFienberg #JasonCooper #SportsBetting #SportsMedia #InstagramDMs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We break down one of the most unbelievable NBA Finals games in recent memory as the Knicks storm back from a 29-point deficit to beat the Spurs in Game 4 and take a 3-1 series lead. We go through how the comeback unfolded, the key turning points, and the wild betting implications around the game, including massive live movement on ProphetX that saw the Knicks priced as high as 30-1 mid-game. We also dive into the ongoing Jeff Nadu situation following the $1 betting discussion that’s been circulating online, including his response and the broader back-and-forth with Circles Off. On top of that, we get into prediction market discourse around hedging behavior and whether certain strategies are being misunderstood or misrepresented. Hosted by Jacob Gramegna, joined by Isaac Rose-Berman, Shipper, and Thon Misser. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up! 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob Gramegna - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Isaac Rose-Berman - https://x.com/roundrobin42 🔵 Follow Shipper - https://x.com/ShipTheJustice 🔵 Follow Thon Misser - https://x.com/ThonMisser OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Isaac Rose-Berman, Shipper, Thon Maker and Jacob Gramegna 1:43 - The San Antonio Spurs SHOCK the New York Knicks in 29-point game 4 comeback 17:51- Jeff Nadu fires back at us 29:47- Don't overestimate your counterparties.. 37:48- Illegal sports betting or a smart hedge by Osasuna? 48:18 - The Zverev discourse 1:00:29 - World Cup propaganda? 1:10:14 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #NBAFinals #Knicks #Spurs #NBA #Basketball #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #JeffNadu #CirclesOff #ProphetX #LiveBetting #GamblingTwitter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Circles Off sits down with Andrew Gombas for a deep dive into one of the most complete career paths in modern sports betting. Andrew has done nearly every job in the industry — from pick selling, to running betting groups, to working inside PPH-style operations, to becoming a full-time bettor focused heavily on MMA. In this conversation with Rob Pizzola, he breaks down what each side of the industry actually looks like from the inside and how it all connects. We also get into the evolution of sports betting groups, what most people misunderstand about pick selling ecosystems, and how the PPH world has changed over time. Andrew shares stories from inside that space, including the realities of account gathering, group dynamics, and what it takes to operate at scale. The conversation also goes into MMA betting at a high level — how his process has evolved, where his edge comes from, and what sharp fight handicapping actually looks like in practice. Later in the episode, things get even deeper with discussions around fixed fights, controversial situations in UFC betting, and the darker side of the betting ecosystem. This is part of the Circles Off interview series presented by ProphetX, focused on sharp betting minds, betting markets, and real behind-the-scenes process. If you’re interested in sports betting, MMA betting, betting groups, or how the industry actually works behind the scenes, this episode delivers a rare inside perspective. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up! 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Andrew - https://x.com/BetsandPicksMMA OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Rob Pizzola's Circles Off interview with Andrew Gombas 2:12 - Origins in sports betting 6:27 - The pick-selling era 23:18 - Transition to pro + PPH World 41:25 - Running a betting group 49:05 - Andrew's MMA betting process 1:10:47 - The dark side of MMA betting (fixed fights and more) 1:22:15 - The future of MMA 1:25:59 - +EV and -EV move of the week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CirclesOff #SportsBetting #MMABetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #RobPizzola #BettingPodcast #SharpBettors #UFCBetting #BettingStrategy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jeff Nadu faces backlash after a betting screenshot from a Novig post goes viral, with viewers zooming in on what appears to be a $1.06 wager and sparking criticism over how he presents himself as a sports bettor. The situation escalates as the screenshot spreads online, fueling debate around credibility, unit sizing, and perception in public-facing betting content. Meanwhile, a $35K crypto dispute involving a university student raises questions around platform rules, interpretation of written terms, and accountability in high-stakes markets. The episode also reacts to the latest storylines from the NBA and NHL Finals. Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and George Tsilfidis on Circle Back, presented by ProphetX, to break down all three storylines. The crew reacts, debates, and unpacks the controversy, providing sharp takes and real-time analysis across sports betting, crypto disputes, and the NBA and NHL Finals. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up! 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow George - https://x.com/georgetsilfidis 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, George Tsilfidis and Geoff Fienberg 1:24 - NBA Finals 11:09 - Stanley Cup Finals 24:29 - Other weekend recap 49:55 - $1 Bettor? 1:28;33 - Student vs. PM 1:36:00 - Your comments 1:44:00 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CirclesBack #CirclesOff #JeffNadu #Crypto #NBA #NHL #SportsBetting #BettingControversy #NBAFinals #NHLFinals #Novig #ProphetX #RobPizzola #GeoffFienberg #GeorgeTsilfidis #JacobGramegna Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

These New Betting Laws are already getting pushback after Massachusetts introduced a rule requiring sportsbooks to notify bettors when their accounts are limited and provide a reason. On paper, it’s framed as transparency for consumers, but early reactions from bettors suggest it doesn’t actually explain much—just a polished way of saying winning action isn’t welcome. The debate has quickly turned into whether this is real protection for bettors or just another layer of messaging that changes nothing about how limits are applied. Also on today’s show, the ongoing Haralabob vs Matt Kalish feud continues to escalate, with Haralabos Voulgaris challenging the consistency and fairness of industry narratives around prediction markets and sportsbook growth strategies. The discussion has spilled into broader questions about hypocrisy, market evolution, and how legacy betting companies justified their early expansion tactics. On top of that, hedge funds and trading firms like SIG are reportedly struggling to retain or recruit top-tier traders, as prediction markets and independent trading opportunities give sharp talent more freedom than ever before. On today’s LIVE Circle Back, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter of BA Analytics, pro sports bettor Chinamaniac, and sharp bettor Isaac Rose-Berman. The show goes live Thursdays at 4 PM ET on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up! 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ 🔵 Follow China - https://x.com/chinamaniac 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Isaac Rose-Berman, Porter, China and Jacob Gramegna 1:30 - Haralabob vs. Matt Kalish 13:28 - NBA Finals through game 1 19:41 - Hedge funds are trying and failing to attract traders 26:31 - Massachusetts's transparency on limits is creating complaints 39:31 - Reading your comments 47:26 - The unfortunate scam 53:17 - Risk your life for $100k? 1:06:48 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #sportsbetting #predictionmarkets #sportsbook #circlesoff #circlesoffpodcast #circlesofflive #bettingnews #haralabosvoulgaris #kalish #hedgefunds #massachusetts #gamblingnews Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Circles Off sits down with sharp bettor Thon Misser (@ThonMisser) for a deep dive into how he actually approaches modern betting markets, from live wagering to prediction markets and everything in between. Thon has quietly built a reputation for finding edges in places most bettors ignore — including niche sports like Japanese baseball, reality TV markets, and newer prediction market platforms. In this conversation with Rob Pizzola, he breaks down how he thinks about betting today, where his edge comes from, and why the betting landscape is changing faster than most people realize. We also get into his live betting process, how he structures his week across different sports and markets, and what it really takes to operate at a sharp level in today’s environment. Later in the episode, the conversation shifts into prediction markets, insider trading debates, and whether these new formats are going to coexist with or disrupt traditional sportsbooks. This is part of the Circles Off interview series presented by ProphetX, focused on sharp thinking, betting markets, prediction markets, and real process-driven discussion. If you’re interested in sports betting, prediction markets, live betting strategy, or how sharp bettors actually think, this episode delivers a rare inside look. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up! 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Thon - https://x.com/ThonMisser OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circles Off interview with Rob Pizzola and Thon Misser 1:23 - The origins of Thon Misser 9:38 - Thon Misser's place in the current sports betting landscape 14:59 - Weekly betting habits 25:18 - Thon Misser's betting focuses 41:00 - Learning more about Thon Misser 45:21 - Live betting strategy 56:59 - The niche markets 1:03:20 - Prediction Markets and Insider Trading 1:29:23 - Rapid fire questions 1:37:31 - +EV and -EV Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CirclesOff #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #RobPizzola #BettingStrategy #LiveBetting #SharpBettors #BettingPodcast #ThonMisser Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A betting influencer, Taylor Mathis, has sparked controversy after a Game 7 betting slip post showing one side of a wager while appearing to place another, leading to a wave of backlash and confusion across Gambling Twitter. The crew breaks down the fallout, the viral $1.7 million parlay sweat that divided the community, whether sportsbooks should ever void bets placed in error, and the growing debate over professional bettors versus casual gamblers. Plus, thoughts on the NBA Finals between the Spurs and Knicks, the Stanley Cup Final between the Golden Knights and Hurricanes, and whether penalty shootouts are still the right way to decide major soccer matches after the Champions League Final. Circle Back is part of The Hammer Betting Network and features Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and Jason Cooper discussing the biggest stories in sports betting. From industry controversies and betting strategy debates to the latest headlines across sports, the crew gives their reactions to the topics everyone is talking about. 🟢 Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up! 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/takesbyj 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, Jason Cooper, Geoff Fienberg and Jacob Gramegna 1:28 - Taylor Mathis' bet slip mistake blows up on Gambling Twitter 20:32 - Myles Garrett LIVE trade reaction 27:17 - Parlay Prince's $1.7 million parlay 34:33 - NBA Finals/Stanley Cup 47:51 - Should the Champions League be decided by penalties? 54:53 - "Newbies" ruined sports betting? 1:06:35 - "Professionals" ruined sports betting? 1:14:36 - Reading your comments 1:22:17 - How likely are they to... 1:27:36 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s camp sending a legal warning to Underdog over a foul-baiting board game has sparked a much larger conversation about where the line is between creative sports content and athlete representation rights. Jacob Gramegna, Chris Dierkes, Mike (Peanut Bettor), and Shipper break down what actually happened, why Underdog is refusing to back down, and what this says about how sports brands, players, and platforms are colliding in real time. The crew also dives into a major betting exchange controversy involving bot errors and inconsistent market voiding decisions. When obvious pricing mistakes happen, should exchanges always void the market to protect fairness, or should every bet stand once it’s matched? That debate leads into a broader discussion on market integrity, prediction markets, and whether the industry applies rules consistently or selectively depending on who benefits. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Chris - https://x.com/flupnolide 🔵 Follow Mike - https://x.com/peanut_bettor 🔵 Follow Shipper - https://x.com/shipthejustice OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Peanut Bettor, Chris Dierkes and Shipper 2:08 - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sends cease and desist letter to Underdog 12:10 - Caesars makes a "business decision" with winning bettor 22:21 - Betfair sparks huge debate after voiding wagers 33:01 - Are prediction market representatives hypocrites? 42:35 - Twitter has become a market integrity infrastructure 48:00 - What I love most about sports betting 52:57 - Foazn gets beaten on Jannik Sunner -10000 58:23 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most bettors are losing money on player props because they’re using the wrong inputs. If you’re looking at a player’s last 10, 15, or 20 games to project a prop, you’re not finding an edge — you’re creating a false one. In this video, Rob Pizzola breaks down one of the most common and costly mistakes in sports betting: treating hit rates like probabilities. It might look like math. It might feel like an edge. But it’s neither. Instead, Rob explains why hit rate thinking breaks down, starting with why endpoint selection completely distorts results and why context inside those games matters more than the results themselves. He also explains why alternates don’t fix a bad process and why backward-looking stats fail to project forward outcomes. From there, he introduces the framework that actually matters: volume, quality, and conversion. Using real NBA examples, Rob shows how two players with identical box score outputs can have completely different projections once you look under the surface, and why most bettors miss this entirely. Finally, he connects it back to how real betting markets work today, and why competing with serious groups requires more than basic trend-spotting or hit rate filtering. This is not about picks or parlays. It’s about understanding the process behind the bets. If you’re serious about improving how you bet player props, this is the framework you need to understand. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DraftKings co-founder responds directly to recent criticism and sparks a wider debate about prediction markets, how sportsbooks are evolving, and whether the industry is heading in the right direction or not. The crew breaks down that situation alongside a NASCAR betting controversy where a wager was graded as a loss instead of being voided, triggering backlash over how sportsbooks handle unexpected outcomes and settlement rules. Daniel Cormier also gets pulled into a separate betting dispute after questioning whether a bet should stand if the counterparty didn’t have the financial ability to pay. The crew is joined by Rob Pizzola, Kirk Evans, and Geoff Fienberg on this episode of Circle Back on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. They also run through a weekend betting and sports recap including Victor Wembanyama’s dominance, discussions around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the New York Knicks’ form, and Mitch Marner’s hot streak. Plus NBA opening tip-off betting angles, the Bet Pass schedule release, and a special announcement to close the show. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Kirk - https://x.com/KirkEvans0 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, Kirk Evans, Geoff Fienberg and Jacob Gramegna 1:27 - Recapping the weekend of sports 29:05 - Bettors sound off on losing their wagers on Kyle Busch 38:21 - Matt Kalish's crash-out extends into another week 46:56 - Bet Bash schedule starting to be released 56:12 - "Data don't matter" 1:05:46 - Daniel Cormier needs help settling this debate 1:11:42 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DraftKings co-founder Matt Kalish set Gambling Twitter on fire after a viral rant about prediction markets, sharp bettors, retail gamblers, and the future of sports betting. Jacob Gramegna, Joey Knish, Storm Pig, and Porter of BA Analytics react to the entire situation, break down the backlash, and discuss what the conversation says about the current state of the gambling industry. The crew also dives into the viral “Sports betting will be dead in 5-10 years” take, whether traditional betting research still works, and why so many bettors feel the space is changing rapidly. The show also covers Dana White asking President Donald Trump to help reverse the 90 percent limit on gambling loss deductions for US taxpayers, why the gambling tax issue has become a major talking point across the industry, and plenty more betting discourse from the week. Circle Back LIVE airs every Thursday at 4 PM ET on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network, hosted by Jacob Gramegna with rotating guests from the sports betting and analytics space. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22 🔵 Follow Storm - https://x.com/storm_pig OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Joey Knish, Porter and Storm Pig 2:41 - Matt Kalish goes on a rant about prediction markets 13:57 - Actually being able to get down on Fanatics 18:58 - Insider trading on Survivor 26:24 - If you don't nearly go bust... 34:22 - NFL Survivor updates + GRP Wins new service 39:30 - Sports betting, 5-10 years from now 43:58 - Dana White's letter to Trump 52:40 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this Circles Off Q&A, Rob Pizzola is joined by Plus EV Analytics, Matt Buchalter, for a deep dive into sports betting modeling — how it actually works in practice, what separates good models from bad ones, and how sharp bettors think about building and evaluating their edge. This episode is built around 10 of the toughest modeling questions pulled directly from Circles Off content and community discussion. The conversation covers how to start a model from scratch, when a model is strong enough to bet real money, and how to deal with early season uncertainty like small samples, roster turnover, and regression questions. Rob and Matt also explore what matters more between getting the mean right or the distribution right, how to think about closing line value thresholds, and how to separate variance from a broken edge when results turn against you. They also get into Bayesian vs frequentist thinking, how professional bettors evaluate their models over time, and which inputs are often overrated or underrated when building a betting model. For anyone serious about sports betting models, market pricing, or long-term edge creation, this is a practical, sharp breakdown from two experienced voices in the space. Subscribe to Circles Off for more sharp betting conversations, modeling breakdowns, and market analysis. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Matt - https://x.com/PlusEVAnalytics OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circles Off Q&A with Rob Pizzola and PlusEVAnalytics 1:19 - Question 1: Starting a model from scratch 4:01 - Question 2: When your model is good enough to trust 7:32 - Question 3: Most common mistake moddlers make 10:40 - Question 4: Bayesian or frequentist 15:40 - Question 5: Real winners vs. variance 19:18 - Question 6: How do you handle the early-season problems? 22:46 - Question 7: Mean vs. distribution 24:06 - Question 8: Handling the stuff that you cannot model 29:10 - Question 9: Handling a model that starts to lose 32:57 - Question 10: Feature that bettors overrate and underrate when building models Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Circles Off, Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola and Matt Buchalter as they react to a viral NBA Same Game Parlay strategy from Guy Boston Sports that has been circulating across YouTube. The group breaks down the ideas presented in the video titled “My Winning Same Game Parlay Strategy for the NBA,” which has gathered tens of thousands of views, and examines whether the logic actually holds up in real sports betting markets. Rob and Matt take a sharp, analytical look at the strategy, questioning the assumptions behind NBA same game parlays, discussing where these types of betting systems often go wrong, and highlighting why something that sounds good on paper doesn’t always translate into real edge or long-term profitability. Throughout the discussion, they evaluate the video from a sharp bettor’s perspective, separating entertainment-driven betting content from strategies that are actually useful for bettors trying to win consistently. This is part of the Circles Off reaction series, where we review popular sports betting content and determine whether the advice being shared is actionable or misleading. Topics include NBA betting, same game parlays, sports betting strategy, and critical breakdowns of betting advice circulating on YouTube and social media. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Matt - https://x.com/PlusEVAnalytics OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The UFC betting market is under scrutiny again after suspicious line movement on Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley caused sportsbooks to pull the fight entirely before Brady won as a massive underdog. The crew also discusses Sean Strickland upsetting Khamzat Chimaev, new legislation aimed at sportsbook limiting practices in New Jersey, and the viral World Cup betting strategy claiming bettors can “guarantee” profits by backing 14 teams. Jacob Gramegna hosts Rob Pizzola, Jason Cooper, and George Tsilfidis on Circle Back, a weekly Circles Off show from The Hammer Betting Network focused on sports betting news, betting controversies, prediction markets, sportsbook behavior, and gambling industry discussions. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow George - https://x.com/georgetsilfidis 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/takesbyj 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, George Tsilfidis, Jason Cooper and Jacob Gramegna 1:33 - Another big weekend of sports 23:09 - Another UFC betting scandal 45:32 - World Cup betting trick 55:44 - New laws on limiting entering the market 1:06:44 - Reading your comments + news about the Circles Off channel 1:19:43 - NFL's pivot to streaming 1:24:34 - Worst people to rad trip with 1:28:12 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A sports bettor on Twitter revealed he was missing the last bit of money needed to pay rent, so he decided to tail a Dub Club pick seller that was being promoted as a winning bettor. The story sparked a massive discussion about gambling responsibly, the dangers of relying on sports betting for income, and the growing trust issues around pick-selling culture online. The crew also reacts to another Gambling Twitter controversy involving a bettor posting an empty Cavaliers bet slip for engagement before eventually placing the wager at a much worse number after getting called out publicly. Plus, more discussion around the ongoing drama, accountability, and credibility problems surrounding betting content online. Jacob Gramegna is joined by Mike (Mr. PeanutBettor), Joey Knish, and storm_pig for another episode of Circle Back on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. The panel breaks down the biggest stories, controversies, and conversations happening across Gambling Twitter and the sports betting world. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO’s New Live Betting Screen → https://bit.ly/4lsovnG LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Mike - https://x.com/peanut_bettor 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/joeyknish22 🔵 Follow Storm- https://x.com/storm_pig OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back Friday with Jacob Gramegna, Mike (Peanut Bettor) , Joey Knish, and Storm Pig 1:33 - Tailing Dub Club picks with rent money 12:48 - Steve Fezzik's return fire 18:52 - Posting empty bet slips 25:33 - Who is your counterparty? 39:04 - Most likely to... 47:44 - The Prop Firm scam? 54:21 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Legendary Loopholes on Circles Off, Jacob Gramegna is joined by Matt Buchalter, also known as Plus EV Analytics, to break down one of the most incredible NBA betting edges you’ll ever hear. Matt walks through how he discovered a Same Game Parlay error at an offshore sportsbook that created a massive edge. What started as a small observation quickly turned into an opportunity to generate thousands in profit. Using a real example from a Toronto Raptors vs Dallas Mavericks game, the two dive into exactly how the loophole worked, how it was bet, and how it ultimately played out. The story includes a dramatic finish, where a late, seemingly meaningless shot ended up deciding the outcome. This is a full breakdown of the process behind identifying sportsbook mistakes, capitalizing on edges, and understanding how these rare opportunities exist in the betting market. If you’re interested in sports betting strategy, +EV betting, and real stories from sharp bettors, this is an episode you won’t want to miss. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO’s New Live Betting Screen → https://bit.ly/4lsovnG LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Matt - https://x.com/PlusEVAnalytics 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna THE HAMMER'S CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ #SportsBetting #Betting #NFL #bettingtips #bettingstrategy #bettingstrategies #bettingadvice #gambling The Hammer Betting Network is an industry leader in providing trusted sports betting content. Visit The Hammer HQ's channel page for access to all of the network's YouTube channels, as well as more content from this channel specifically. Check out our website at https://thehammer.bet/ to find all of The Hammer's content, including videos and articles. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A viral tweet claiming sportsbooks “screw their customers” gets broken down — and the math behind it doesn’t hold up. The crew digs into how betting markets actually work, why pricing is often misunderstood, and how public perception of sportsbooks gets shaped by viral takes. They also react to a bizarre identity verification request from BallyBet that raises questions about how far sportsbooks are going with compliance, plus a broader discussion on prediction markets and how a small percentage of informed participants drive most of the efficiency. Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola, George Tsilfidis, and Geoff Fienberg on Circle Back, part of The Hammer Betting Network, to react to the biggest stories from the betting world. From sportsbook practices and viral betting discourse to industry trends and market dynamics, the crew breaks it all down. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow George - https://x.com/georgetsilfidis 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, George Tsilfidis, Geoff Fienberg and Jacob Gramegna 1:07 - Weekend sports reaction 25:48 - How to actually calculate sportsbook hold 38:56 - If you can't convincingly articulate your edge... 47:22 - Craziest sportsbook identity verification? 54:18 - Reading your comments 1:07:30 - Peanut Bettor's Tier Lists 1:21:45 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode covers a wide range of topics across betting, prediction markets, and probabilistic thinking. We start with the Brendan Sorsby situation after reports surfaced about a major gambling-related issue involving the Texas Tech QB, including over 10,000 bets placed dating back to 2022. The conversation focuses on what this means for gambling integrity in college sports and the broader responsibility discussion that comes with it. From there, the panel reacts to Isaac Rose-Berman’s recent article on prediction markets and the way they are positioned as an alternative to traditional sportsbooks. The discussion explores whether that framing is accurate, how these platforms actually generate profit, and what bettors often misunderstand about their structure. The group also breaks down a viral take from Plus EV Analytics on parlay thinking and how human intuition struggles with probability when outcomes are layered together. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined throughout the episode by Joey Knish, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Chris Dierkes (Flupnolide), a trader at Novig, with all four contributors involved in the full discussion across gambling, markets, and bettor psychology. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR 🔵 Get Betstamp PRO’s New Live Betting Screen → https://bit.ly/4lsovnG LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/joeyknish22 🔵 Follow Chris - https://x.com/flupnolide OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back Friday with Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Bermna, Joey Knish, and Chris Dierkes 2:30 - NCAA QB suffering from a gambling addiction 14:17 - Isaac's piece on prediction markets 25:07 - Leviathan of Locks re-emerges 32:24 - Abstract probabilistic thinking 41:39 - Caitlin Clark 54+ points 46:51 - The end of horse racing? 53:18 - Blue button vs. red button 59:57 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices