Equity Decoded By Spirit

Equity Decoded By Spirit PodcastWe spend all our time obsessing over discounted cash flows and returns on capital, but the most crucial line item in any equity analysis is completely invisible on a balance sheet. It's the promoter.Building a valuation model out to two decimal places for a business run by a chronic capital misallocator is not rigorous analysis. It is purely financial theater. Every single financial metric you track is entirely downstream of human character.Before we get into the details, a quick disclaimer. I am not SEBI registered and I do not give investment advice. But digging deep into this topic reveals a few glaring red flags every investor needs to watch out for.- The Cash Check: If the massive cash balances sitting on a balance sheet cannot be reconciled with the actual interest income being generated, something is almost certainly being fabricated.- The Closed Loop: When a promoter controls both sides of a related party transaction, playing both the buyer and the seller, you are not actually investing in a business. You are just funding a massive information asymmetry.- The Consistency Test: Genuine integrity in the financials usually looks incredibly boring. You want to see a total absence of complexity, straightforward holding structures, and annual reports that read exactly the same during a brutal year as they do during a boom.Every financial model fundamentally relies on the numbers being real. That is a character assumption, not a math equation.Check out the full deep dive on why the promoter actually is the model. https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/the-spreadsheet-wont-save-you-whyFound this interesting? Follow us for more such insights.👉 Join our Community Channel for FREE on WhatsApp:https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K👉 Follow me on Xhttps://x.com/equitydecode👉 Also if you are on insta (of course you are), Follow me on instahttps://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch#Investing #EquityResearch #CorporateGovernance #StockMarketIndia #ValueInvesting #Finance

Whenever anyone brings up Suzlon these days, they immediately point to the disappearing debt. Dropping from a suffocating ₹13,210 crore in the hole to a pure net cash position is an incredible feat. But if you only stare at the balance sheet, you are completely missing the actual physical engine driving this recovery.In my latest deep dive, I break down the real mechanics behind how Suzlon survived.Here are the key takeaways:The Maintenance Cash Machine: Building turbines is a slow grind. But servicing them brings in quiet, highly predictable revenue from a massive footprint of over 20,000 MW.The Government Moat: The ALMM policy forces local sourcing, handing Suzlon a massive advantage over global rivals who rely heavily on imported parts.The FY27 Reality Check: The biggest test right now is execution. Can they successfully scale up deliveries without their working capital eating into their fresh cash reserves?Quick reminder: I am not SEBI registered, so please do not take this as investment advice. This is purely an educational breakdown of a truly fascinating corporate comeback.Read the full piece to see how the numbers actually stack up!https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/suzlon-the-company-that-died-twice?r=5uwf28Found this interesting? Follow us👉 Join our Community Channel for FREE on whatsapp:https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K👉 Check my deep dives on various topics on substackhttps://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/👉 Follow us on Xhttps://x.com/equitydecode👉 Also if you are on insta (of course you are), Follow me on instahttps://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch#Finance #Investing #Equity #Business

Day 32/100 of Equity Decoded By Spirit NewsletterThe China Plus One narrative dominates global finance, but the reality presented in glossy investor decks looks completely different from the actual situation on the factory floor.India has undeniably secured the broader narrative victory, yet the underlying data reveals Vietnam is quietly securing a massive share of the actual production facilities. Procurement officers do not care about grand geopolitics because their survival depends entirely on supply chain density, acceptable defect rates and whether a crucial shipment leaves the port perfectly on schedule.Vietnam has spent the past decade making itself operationally inevitable for export manufacturers, while India remains busy navigating complex state level administrative bottlenecks.Despite this stark operational gap, capital markets are aggressively pricing Indian manufacturing equities at 40x to 70x times forward earnings.Delusional investors are treating a brutal three year vendor qualification cycle as if it delivers immediate free cash flow.If you want to look past these glaring valuation mismatches to understand who is genuinely winning the global reshuffle and where the real strategic edge for India actually lies, read the full breakdown.Found this interesting? Follow for more such insights.👉 Join our Community Channel for FREE on WhatsApp:https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K👉 Check my deep dives on various topics on Substack.https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/👉 Also if you are on insta (of course you are), Follow me on Insta.https://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch#ChinaPlusOne#SupplyChain#Manufacturing#Investing#Geopolitics#Finance

A few years ago, buying beauty products meant relying on a local shop or a mall counter. But Today in 2026, the purchase journey starts directly in our social feeds, completely breaking the old physical retail moats.I just published a deep dive into how this shift from a push to a pull model made Nykaa possible.Many investors treat Nykaa like a generic ecommerce platform, which completely misses their true value. The real magic lies in their inventory led beauty business, where private labels are never just side projects. They are a profound margin architecture that significantly lifts profitability.While their fashion segment is cyclical and headline valuation ratios look absurd, their core beauty engine is proving real operating leverage alongside durable earnings power. With giants like Reliance and Tata aggressively entering the space, the true battle is now entirely about who owns the premium discovery layer.If you want to look past the misleading metrics and understand the actual unit economics of the Indian beauty boom, give the full piece or the podcast version a read or listen.https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/nykaa-and-the-death-of-old-distributionFound this interesting? Follow us👉 Join our Community Channel for FREE on whatsapp:https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K👉 Check my deep dives on various topics on substackhttps://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/👉 Also if you are on insta (of course you are), Follow me on instahttps://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch#Nykaa hashtag#Investing hashtag#Finance hashtag#IndianRetail hashtag#BusinessStrategy

Most people think of logistics simply as trucks moving boxes, but as we look at the landscape in 2026, it is actually the ultimate leverage play on India's massive GDP ambitions.I recently dug into how this sector truly operates and here is what most are getting wrong- The Cost Myth: We are no longer stuck at 13% to 14% logistics costs. Primary data shows it has already dropped to 7.97 percent of GDP.- The Valuation Trap: Applying the same EV/EBITDA multiple to a heavy asset port and a light asset tech delivery network is a massive category error.- The Rail Advantage: Dedicated Freight Corridors are making rail freight nearly six times cheaper than road transport, completely changing our structural bottlenecks.A quick heads up that I am not SEBI registered, so please do not take this as investment advice. Always consult your financial advisor!Check out the full breakdown in the link below to see how smart capital is positioning itself in this space.https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/the-invisible-backbone-how-indiasFound this interesting? Follow Shubham Singh for more such insights.👉 Join our Community Channel for FREE on WhatsApp:https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K👉 Check my deep dives on various topics on Substack.https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/👉 Also if you are on insta (of course you are), Follow me on Insta.https://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch

Ever noticed how half the analysts on an earnings call update their models when the CFO mentions "normalized working capital" while the rest just blindly write it down? That’s the difference between reading a spreadsheet and actually understanding a business.A good business isn't automatically a good stock. Here are a few things to look out for:• PAT can lie but Free Cash Flow doesn't. Watch what actually consumes the cash instead of just looking at the headline profit. • ROCE is the real truth teller. A company earning 35% ROCE compounds wealth, while one earning 9% with debt slowly destroys it. • Gross margins reveal pricing power. If margins hold during a demand downturn, you've found structural power.(Quick disclaimer: I am not SEBI registered, so please do not take this as investment advice! This is purely for educational purposes.)I've broken down the mental models serious fund managers use to read companies in my latest piece, bridging the gap between fundamental and technical analysis. Check out the link in the comments or tune into the podcast version!https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/the-gap-between-a-good-business-andFound this interesting? Follow Shubham Singh for more such insights.👉 Join our Community Channel for FREE on WhatsApp:https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K👉 Check my deep dives on various topics on Substackhttps://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/👉 Also if you are on insta (of course you are), Follow me on Instahttps://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch#Investing #StockMarket #Valuation #Finance #FundamentalAnalysis

Day 28/100Ever wonder how the pills in your medicine cabinet actually get made? We usually just look at the logo on the bottle, but the foundational chemistry happens much earlier in the supply chain.I've been analyzing Divi’s Laboratories, a massive operation in Vishakhapatnam that acts as the quiet backbone for 12 of the world's top 20 pharma innovators.(Quick disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered advisor, so please don't take this as investment advice! I'm just sharing some fascinating business mechanics).Here is what makes their model so resilient:The Hidden Moat: Once an innovator builds a clinical trial around Divi's specific chemistry, switching suppliers can trigger massive regulatory delays and cost millions in forgone revenue.Looking Beyond PE: Trailing PE misses the mark because custom synthesis revenue is milestone-based. Their ~20.45% ROCE is a much stronger signal of their capital quality.Global Infrastructure: As global supply chains actively move to reduce their dependency on China, Divi's functions more like an irreplaceable infrastructure asset than a standard pharma stock.Check out my full deep dive into the supply chain no one draws correctly to learn more!https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/divilabs-the-infrastructure-thatFound this interesting? Join our Community Channel for FREE on WhatsApphttps://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AZNIZAA6GXOKAlso if you are on insta (of course you are), Follow me on Insta.https://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch#Investing #PharmaSector #CDMO #BusinessStrategy #StockMarket #100DaysWithTVS

Day 27/100India's manufacturing story has a massive blind spot. Did you know that after four years, less than 8% of the ₹1.91 lakh crore PLI incentives have actually been disbursed?First, a quick disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered advisor, so none of this is investment advice. But the data from the ground speaks volumes:1. The Winners: Electronics and Telecom thrived because the incentive structures perfectly matched their rapid capex cycles and production realities.2. The Misses: Specialty Steel and Textiles are struggling with deep structural and policy mismatches.3. The Auto Irony: The Auto PLI requires massive upfront capital, essentially locking out true EV innovators and rewarding legacy incumbents.We are now entering Phase Two, shifting from large scale assembly to a deep tech component ecosystem. That gap is exactly where the next decade of unpriced value lies.Check out my full deep dive into the realities of these schemes and what they actually mean for the market!https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/the-pli-mirage-which-schemes-actually?r=5uwf28Found this interesting? Share it in your study group[s]/ or on LinkedIn👉 Join our Community Channel for FREE on whatsapp:https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K👉 Check my deep dives on various topics on Substack.https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/👉 Also if you are on Insta (of course you are), Follow me on Instagram.https://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch

Day 26/100What separates a decent investment from a massive wealth compounder? It isn't the quarter where earnings beat estimates or an analyst upgrades the stock.But the real wealth is made quarters before the market catches on, hidden quietly in a company’s balance sheet through structural operating leverage.Think of Reliance Jio or TSMC. They spent billions building massive fixed-cost machines, meaning early returns often looked terrible to the average observer. But once they hit an inflection point in asset utilization, every new customer or order drops almost entirely to the bottom line. In these setups, when revenue grows 25%, your profit can jump over 60%.My latest piece breaks down how to spot these structural compounders before the crowd does, tracking signals like incremental ROCE instead of waiting for headline news. We also look at the specific sectors where this exact math is playing out right now.https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/the-hidden-gear-how-operating-leverage?r=5uwf28Found this interesting? Share it in your study group[s]/ or on LinkedIn👉 Join our Community Channel for FREE on whatsapp:https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K👉 Check my deep dives on various topics on Substack.https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/👉 Also if you are on Insta (of course you are), Follow me on Instagram.https://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch

Everyone chases the headline stock but the most explosive wealth is often built one step removed.During India’s renewable push, solar developers took on massive execution and tariff risks. Meanwhile, Apar Industries, a quiet company simply making the transmission conductors they all needed & surged over 1,800%.In the U.S. AI boom, while everyone watched Nvidia, the deeper proxy was ASML, quietly holding a monopoly on the machines that make the chips possible.This is proxy investing: finding the "picks and shovels" businesses that capture a sector’s growth without carrying its core cyclical or regulatory risks. But you might ask, what’s the catch? By the time mainstream analysts publish their buy ratings, the easy money is usually gone.I recently published a framework on how to identify these invisible compounders, understand their true moats and spot the exact moment a proxy trade becomes too crowded. Read the full breakdown belowPlease note this is not investment advice.Found this interesting? Follow Equity Decoded by Spirit Podcast for more such insights, also if possible, restack/repost this.Thanks.#ProxyInvesting #Investing #Finance #Valuation #India #StockMarket

Day 23/100Lemon Tree Hotels is arguably one of India's most misunderstood hospitality plays right now. While many investors are still anchored to backward-looking P/E ratios and consolidated financials, they're missing the structural shift that's already underway.The real story is the demerger. The business has been split into two distinct entities: a real estate heavy ownership vehicle backed by a fresh ₹960 crore injection from Warburg Pincus, and a pure play, asset light management and brand platform. By ring-fencing roughly ₹1,300 crore of debt into the ownership vehicle, the management entity emerges essentially debt-free, & free to scale through high margin franchise fees the way Marriott and Hilton do, without the weight of owned real estate on its books.The timing matters too. India's mid market hospitality segment is serving roughly 300 million strong and fast growing middle class, remains chronically underserved by quality branded hotels. Lemon Tree is positioning itself as the franchise infrastructure layer for exactly that demand.Applying a trailing P/E to a company going through this kind of structural transformation is simply the wrong tool. My latest deep dive breaks down the demerger mechanics, the macro tailwinds, and why this looks like a once in a lifecycle inflection point for the business.Full analysis below 👇https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/the-lemon-tree-indias-most-interesting?r=5uwf28Share this so it can reach more curious brains like yours.NOTE: This analysis is for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.#IndianStockMarket #EquityResearch #LemonTreeHotels #IndiaHospitality #StockAnalysis #InvestingInIndia #CapitalAllocation #ValueInvesting

Day 22/100India's AI and cloud boom is generating enormous investment hype, but the physical reality underneath it is far more interesting than the headline numbers suggest.Strip away the tech narrative and a data center is essentially a hard asset business that operates like a utility. The real competitive moats aren't the buildings, they're securing the right land, navigating 18 month power allocations from DISCOMs and deploying liquid cooling to handle AI racks pulling 30 to 50 kW each.My latest piece digs into the hidden mechanics of this sector, past the hype and into the actual grid bottlenecks, the structural demand drivers and how listed players like Anant Raj, E2E Networks, Netweb, and Techno Electric are each carving out a very different position in the same opportunity.If you're tracking or investing in India's digital infrastructure, the physical constraints are the story, not the MW pipelines and hyperscaler LOIs.Full breakdown below, now also available as a podcast on Spotify and YouTube. 👇https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/the-race-to-own-indias-digital-spineFollow us for more such deep dives.#DataCentres #IndiaTech #CloudComputing #Hyperscalers #Investing #StockMarket #finance #EquityResearch

Day 21/100Ever notice how we obsess over solar parks, data centers, and EVs, but completely ignore what connects them all? Today, I published a new deep dive: “The Wire Behind Everything: A Deep Dive Into India's Cable Sector”This ₹92,000 crore market is the literal nervous system of India’s modernization. But investing here isn’t simple. As many investors fall for a classic valuation trap, mistaking copper driven price inflation for actual volume growth.In this piece, I break down: Why cables aren’t just “copper wrapped in plastic”. The crucial difference between Polycab’s retail moat and KEI’s B2B playbook. Why EBITDA per kg and ROCE are the metrics that actually matter.If you want to know where the smart money has been quietly building positions, give it a read. The podcast version is also live on Spotify and YouTube!Let me know your thoughts below! 👇https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/the-wire-behind-everything-a-deep?r=5uwf28Share this so it can reach more curious brains like yours.

Day 20/100Ever feel like you're always late to the next big stock market rally? By the time a sector is all over the news, the smart money has already made its move three to six months prior.Today I break down the market clock, a 6 stage cycle that drives predictable sector rotation. The biggest takeaway is that the stock market actually leads the economy by 6 to 9 months. To find the next multibagger, you have to position yourself when the headlines are terrifying and the sector feels completely uninvestable.As Howard Marks points out, it's not about predicting the future but it's about knowing exactly where we are in the cycle right now. The uncomfortable truth is that being early often feels exactly like being wrong.If you want to stop chasing yesterday's winners and learn to spot early signals, this is a must read.https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/the-clock-that-most-investors-cant?r=5uwf28&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webFollow us for more such deep dives.#Investing#StockMarket#SectorRotation#Multibaggers#Finance

Day 19/100Think you know Warren Buffett’s strategy? But I think most people walk away with the wrong lesson.We’re told they are “value investors” who buy great businesses at fair prices. But the reality is far deeper. Buffett and Munger weren’t just investors but they were the 20th century’s most complete systems thinkers.This deep dive explores the "Deceptive Architecture" behind Berkshire Hathaway:The Float: How $171B in interest free capital creates a structural arbitrage machine.Pricing Power: Why a "moat" is actually a dominant strategy Nash equilibrium that makes competition irrelevant.The Latticework: Using 80+ mental models from biology, physics, and psychology to map exploitable market weaknesses.As Munger noted, "It’s not supposed to be easy". The real edge isn’t a spreadsheet but it’s the breadth of thinking. Stop looking only at P/E ratios and start viewing the market as a living economic organism.Read the full breakdown herehttps://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/buffett-and-munger-werent-value-investors?r=5uwf28Found this useful? Follow us for more such deep dives.👉 Join Community for FREE: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K#Investing #WarrenBuffett #CharlieMunger #SystemsThinking #Finance #MentalModels #ValueInvesting

Day 18/100India's solar story still looks incredible from the outside. Capacity is rising, policy support is strong, and the long term opportunity is very real.But in 2026, the more important question is no longer "Is solar the future?" But it's "Who actually makes money when overcapacity, tariff pressure, curtailment and execution risk all start showing up together?"That's exactly what this piece tries to unpack. Not to be negative on the sector, but to separate narrative from business quality and highlight why the next phase may be less about headline growth and more about discipline, balance sheets, and storage-led economics.If you follow Indian markets, energy, or capital cycles, I think you’ll find this worth reading. Would genuinely love to know which part of the value chain you think has the strongest economics from here.https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/indias-solar-boom-has-a-glut-problem?r=5uwf28Found this interesting? Follow us for more such deep dives. Share it so it can reach more curious brains like yours.[Solar Sector , Investing , Finance , CFA , Economy , Investment , Equity Research ]

Day 17/100Today I wrote something that I honestly couldn't stop thinking about.India imports nearly 88% of its crude oil. A massive chunk of that flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which is just a 33 km choke point that the US is now effectively blockading.And most of the market conversation is still treating this like background noise.But here's what I think is being missed, as this isn't just an oil price story. The second order effects on LPG supplies, fertilizers, the rupee, and inflation are real, and they're starting to show up. The question isn't whether India gets hurt. It's which sectors feel it first and how deep it goes.I spent few days digging into the numbers and wrote a full breakdown on Substack - who's exposed, what the realistic scenarios look like, and why India's strategic reserve cushion isn't as comforting as it sounds.Would love to hear what you think.https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/indias-oil-trap-the-hormuz-blockadeFound this useful? Follow for us for more such deep dives.👉 Join Community for FREE: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K#India #MacroEconomics #OilMarkets #HormuzCrisis #IndianEconomy

Day 16/100India's space race isn't just about rockets but it's about the data mapping our future. Geospatial tech is becoming the "invisible operating system" for India's physical infrastructure. From the SVAMITVA scheme resolving 40 year land disputes in minutes, This market is projected to reach around $12-15 billion by 2030, the momentum is real. But don't get caught in the hype. The real value lies in companies building "data gravity" through proprietary models and high recurring revenue - not just one off projects. With the National Geospatial Policy providing a structural advantage to domestic firms, we are seeing a quiet reordering of power. Whether it is Reliance Industries Limited strategic bet on space situational awareness with Digantara or the rise of high-accuracy 3D digital twins, the sector is moving from "maps to moats" Check out the full deep dive below to see how to actually value this sector! 👇https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/indias-geospatial-sector-space-ambitions [ Geospatial , Spacetech , Investing , IndiaGrowth , Infrastructure , EquityDecoded , thevaluationschool , soic , SpaceX , space , economy , investment , ISRO ]

A farmer walks into a shop and buys a 45 kg bag of urea for just ₹242. That price hasn't moved since 2018.This year the government is spending about ₹1.71 lakh crore to keep it that way.And the companies making that urea? They're listed on the stock exchange. They look dirt cheap on every screener. But somehow they always feel wrong when you add them to your portfolio.Here's why. These aren't really normal private businesses. The government decides what they pay for gas, what they can charge the farmer, and how much subsidy they'll get back. Management has some room to operate, but they're basically playing inside a triangle drawn by policy.So when you see a low P/E and think "bargain" stop and ask - Is this actually cheap or did the government just clear a huge pile of pending subsidy payments last quarter? I just wrote a full breakdown on exactly this - the ratio traps that catch most investors, what really separates the good fertilizer plays from the bad ones, and the one big policy shift that almost nobody is pricing in right now.https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/why-fertilizer-companies-are-notWould love to know?? Do you own any fertilizer stocks, or are you staying away? Drop your thoughts. 👇Follow For more such deep dive podcasts. [ Finance , Investing , Economy , Sector analysis ]

Day 14/100Ever felt like you cracked the code on a hot IPO, only to see it tank 55% six months later? Meet Rahul. He followed the influencers, watched the grey market premium soar, and bought in on listing day. Now, he’s holding a heavy loss while promoters sit on their profits.The truth? IPOs aren't launched when companies are ready. They’re launched when the market is ready—meaning sentiment is euphoric enough for investors to pay 80x earnings without asking questions. It’s a game where the most informed (promoters) sell to the least informed (retail) at the peak of information asymmetry.In my latest deep dive, "The IPO Trap: Why the House Always Wins," I break down: 1. Why "Suddenly Profitable" companies are a red flag. 2. Why Cash Flow matters more than accounting profit. 3. Four essential questions to ask before you hit 'Apply'.Don’t be the exit liquidity for insiders. Learn how to spot the trap.Read the full article or listen on Spotify/YouTube! https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/the-ipo-trap-why-the-house-always#Investing #IPO #StockMarket #EquityDecoded #ValueInvesting

While most investors have been watching their portfolios bleed over the past year, one Indian mid-cap stock has quietly staged a massive 105% rally. In this episode, we dive deep into CCL Products (India) Limited, a company currently trading near its 52-week high of ₹1,183.45 while the broader Sensex delivered a meager 3% return.We break down the "secret sauce" of their business model, including:The Cost-Plus Advantage: How they pass global coffee price spikes directly to customers to protect profits.A Global Powerhouse: Why being the world’s largest private-label instant coffee manufacturer is a massive, underrated moat.The B2C Pivot: Their aggressive move into retail with Continental Coffee and recent European acquisitions like Percol and Löfbergs.Risks to Watch: We don't just talk about the upside - we analyze the ₹1,248 crore net debt and the potential "Brazil surplus" that could impact future revenue.Is this "compounding machine" just getting started, or is the valuation too high? Listen in to find out why CCL is the quiet outperformer of 2026.Full Article here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/quiet-outperformer-why-ccl-near-its-52-week-high-while-shubham-singh-vmlrc

India's FMCG sector is heading into Q4 FY26 with a real mix of opportunities and risks.Rural demand is finally recovering, but input costs (crude, palm oil, packaging) are rising fast. Most stocks are priced for perfection, leaving little room for error.In my latest piece, I share:- A practical checklist every disciplined investor should use before touching any FMCG name- The three forces currently shaping the sector• Why leadership keeps rotating between companies- My current take on HUL, Marico, Dabur, Nestlé and ITCFMCG companies will keep growing. The only question that matters is: at what price are you buying the ride?Full analysis here on substack https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/indias-fmcg-sector-in-q4-fy26-the?r=5uwf28Would love to hear your thoughts, are you more optimistic on the rural recovery or cautious on valuations right now?[ BehavioralFinance , IndianStockMarket , NiftyTrading , FOMO , LossAversion , SIPInvesting , StockMarketIndia , MutualFunds , RetailInvestor , FinanceIndia , economy , finance , harshad , metha , reliance , newton , warren , warrenbuffet, FMCG, Indian Stock Market, Fundamental Analysis, Q4 FY26, Consumer Stocks, Value Investing NSE ]

Day 6/100Isaac Newton lost £3 million (in today's money) in the South Sea Bubble of 1720. Not because he was uninformed. Because he was human.304 years later, 93% of Indian F&O traders just lost ₹1.8 lakh crore to the same psychological forces.FOMO, loss aversion, and the disposition effect.These aren't emotional failures, and they're evolutionary features misapplied to financial markets. Your brain was built for the savanna, not the Nifty.The January 2025 FII selloff? Driven by China's stimulus, not India's fundamentals. DIIs bought every rupee. and how retail investors funded the exit.Full breakdown here on substack, check out and let me know if you find it helpful.If you enjoyed this piece and want more thoughts on economy, equity markets, finance, and how human behavior actually drives markets, feel free to follow and subscribe to my newsletter. I’d love to have you along for the journey.https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/the-crowd-that-buys-high-and-sells?r=5uwf28&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Day 11/100The company the US tried hardest to destroy just posted the best financial results in its history.SMIC: $9.33B revenue. +16.2% YoY.Operating profit: +134%.Capacity utilization: 93.5%.Monthly wafer output: 1 million units, For the first time ever and that's just Act One.CXMT is China's answer to Samsung and Micron, CXMT posted $8B in revenue.Up 130% in a single year. China's chip exports in early 2026? +72.6% YoY to $43.3 billion.This wasn't supposed to happen.The US imposed the most aggressive semiconductor sanctions in modern history. Export control, Entity lists, HBM bans. Six years of economic warfare targeting China's chip industry.But the result?Washington didn't just fail to starve CXMT. It eliminated CXMT's three most dangerous competitors from its home market.Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, all banned from selling into the world's largest AI infrastructure market. CXMT stepped into that vacuum and tripled its revenue.This is the commitment trap:1. The US can't reverse the HBM ban now without triggering a memory overcapacity wave that craters global DRAM prices - hurting its own allies.2. The exit from the strategy is as costly as the strategy itself.Tariffs move prices. Industrial policy moves industries. Beijing played industrial policy. Washington played price mechanisms.The scoreboard is now public.The full breakdown on SMIC's operating leverage story, the CXMT IPO ($4.3B raise, likely the biggest Asian equity event of 2026), the 5 structural moats China has built, and what this means for global semiconductor investors is all live on my Substack. Please check it, If you enjoyed this piece and want more thoughts on economy, equity markets, finance, and how human behavior actually drives markets, feel free to follow and subscribe to my newsletter. I’d love to have you along for the journey.https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/the-sanction-that-became-a-stimulus?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=webHit follow for more such insights. #Semiconductors #China #SMIC #CXMT #GlobalMacro #Investing #EquityResearch #Geopolitics #TechWar #Tariffs #IndustrialPolicy #StockMarket #EquityDecoded

I've spent years studying market cycles.The honest truth is that most investors lose money not because they don't know enough but because they focus on ONE force while 3 others are moving silently in the background.Here are the 4 forces that move EVERY market cycle:1. LIQUIDITY - Central bank policy controls the cost of money. And the cost of money controls everything. Delayed repo cuts. JP Morgan confirmed 70% of Central banks went from cutting to holding. 2. EARNINGS - Liquidity inflates the balloon. Earnings decide if it grows or pops. Currently in April 2026 we have mixed signals. Watch the revision cycle, not the reported number.3. GEOPOLITICS - The longest cycle and the most dangerous when ignored. Currently in April 2026 we have got Middle East crisis, oil above $100. India is simultaneously a victim (imported inflation) and a beneficiary (supply chain pivot).4. SENTIMENT - The most irrational force. And the most predictable at extremes. CUrrently Fear is dominant in market. FIIs selling in every session. DIIs buying. History says this is a setup, not a collapse.The rule I use:Sentiment gives you the ENTRY.Liquidity gives you the DIRECTION.Geopolitics sets the SIZE LIMIT.Earnings CONFIRMS the thesis.The full framework - 100 years of history, the interaction matrix, and the complete April 2026 positioning playbook - is live on Substack.If you found this helpful, please repost it so it can reach more curious minds like yours.What force do you think is most in control right now?https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/the-4-forces-that-move-every-market