Future is Blue

Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the UK and the EU are cautiously rebuilding their relationship—but how far can this “reset” really go? In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero speaks with Anand Menon, Director of UK in a Changing Europe, about how the political and economic context around Brexit has evolved, what has actually been achieved so far in improving ties, and whether the fundamental trade-offs between sovereignty and market access can ever be resolved. The conversation explores the limits of the current approach, the EU’s strategic calculus in dealing with the UK, shifting public opinion, and the long-term scenarios for the relationship—from pragmatic cooperation to the possibility of rejoining.

Industrial policy is back at the centre of Europe’s economic debate. But can the EU turn subsidies, trade agreements and competitiveness strategies into real industrial strength? In this episode of Future is Blue, host Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Fernando Martín Espejo, head of analytics at Global Trade Alert, and Miguel Ángel González Simón, economist at Funcas, about Europe’s struggle to move from reaction to strategy. They discuss why money alone does not build capability, how market fragmentation weakens Europe’s investment case, why trade openness still matters in an age of economic security, and what Europe should look at by 2030 to know whether it has truly become more competitive.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen is joined by Eulalia Rubio (Jacques Delors Institute) and Miguel Ángel González (Funcas) to unpack the European Commission’s proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework. The conversation explores whether the EU budget is undergoing a structural shift—from a traditional redistribution tool to a more strategic instrument focused on competitiveness, flexibility and crisis response. Drawing on lessons from Next Generation EU and the Spanish experience, the discussion looks at the challenges of implementation, the tension between cohesion and competitiveness, and what success should look like for Europe’s next long-term budget in an increasingly uncertain world.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Erik F. Nielsen, Senior Adviser at Independent Economics and former Global Chief Economist at UniCredit, and Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director, about the war in Iran and its implications for Europe. The discussion examines the likely impact on growth, inflation and energy prices, the policy choices facing European governments and the ECB, and the broader strategic challenge of responding to a world of more frequent geopolitical shocks and a less reliable US alliance.

Europe’s innovation strengths are clear, but so are its structural weaknesses. In this episode, Alessandra Colecchia from the OECD and Raymond Torres from Funcas discuss fragmentation, scale, security and what Europe must do to turn research excellence into economic impact.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Lourdes S. Casanova (Cornell University) and Raymond Torres (Funcas) about how Europe should navigate its increasingly complex relationship with China. The discussion explores whether China’s economic rise reflects strategic policy success or systemic distortions, why Chinese multinationals are reshaping global competition, and what Europe’s €360bn trade deficit signals about structural vulnerabilities. The episode also examines the need for EU unity in negotiations, the risks of fragmented national strategies, the role of countries such as Spain in attracting Chinese investment, and whether transatlantic tensions should push Europe closer to Beijing — or instead accelerate efforts to strengthen Europe’s own economic foundations.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Ignacio García Bercero (Bruegel) and Miguel Ángel González-Simón about why trade has become a key stress test for Europe in 2026. They discuss rising transatlantic tensions, the use of tariffs as economic coercion — drawing on García Bercero’s recent Bruegel article — and the EU’s capacity to respond using existing trade defence tools. The conversation also explores Europe’s fragile economic resilience, the impact of uncertainty and trade fragmentation on investment and productivity, and the priorities for the year ahead, from advancing key trade agreements to strengthening the EU single market. 

As 2025 draws to a close, Europe faces a harsher global environment shaped by a more assertive second Trump administration, intensifying economic pressure from China, and persistent internal weaknesses. In this episode of Future is Blue, Iain Begg (LSE) and Raymond Torres (Funcas) argue that Europe’s response over the past year has been largely defensive, constrained by fragmented leadership, stalled internal reforms, and a governance model ill-suited to a world increasingly driven by power and coercion rather than cooperation. They discuss how Trump’s use of “sharp power,” China’s growing trade imbalance with the EU, and Europe’s failure to translate diagnoses such as the Draghi report into action have left the bloc vulnerable. Looking ahead to 2026, both see cautious grounds for optimism — from easing financial conditions to renewed fiscal space — but stress that progress will depend on Europe’s ability to act collectively, particularly in areas such as defence, technology, and capital markets, rather than continuing to rely on national solutions in a geopolitical world.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Guntram Wolff, Senior Fellow at Bruegel and Professor of Economics at the Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, about why Europe is facing a decisive turning point on defence and security. The conversation explores how Europe has underestimated Russia’s capabilities, the growing risks created by dependence on US high-tech military systems, and the implications of a more uncertain transatlantic relationship. Wolff argues that Europe needs a credible “Plan B”: deeper defence cooperation, more coordinated procurement, investment in new military technologies, and sustained support for Ukraine as a core European security interest.

In this episode of Future is Blue, economist Luca Fornaro explains how fiscal policy shapes long-term productivity through public investment, taxation and aggregate demand, and outlines the risks of “fiscal stagnation traps” in high-debt countries. Miguel Ángel González-Simón adds the European perspective, discussing the limits of the EU’s fiscal architecture and the challenges facing Spain. The conversation then turns to trade policy, with Fornaro detailing how tariffs and global tech competition affect the geography of innovation, and González-Simón examining Europe’s dilemma between strategic autonomy and openness. Together, they unpack what Europe must do to revive productivity and stay competitive in a shifting global economy.

IMF’s Romain Duval joins Future is Blue to unpack Europe’s widening productivity gap with the U.S., Spain’s specific challenges, and the three priorities he says can reignite growth: finance, skills, and market integration.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Zach Meyers (CERRE) and Funcas economist Miguel Ángel González-Simón join Carlos Carnicero Urabayen to discuss whether Europe can reconcile digital sovereignty with economic competitiveness. They explore why Europe’s core challenge is a persistent productivity gap, why building an “end-to-end Eurostack” is unrealistic, and how focusing on emerging technologies like AI, quantum, or 6G could offer a path forward. The conversation also highlights Europe’s structural weaknesses — fragmented markets, lack of scale, and underdeveloped capital markets — and stresses the need to embrace disruption, allow innovative firms to grow, and make completing the single market a top priority.You can read here Zach Meyer´s paper on this topic.

In this episode, our guest Ana María Santacreu, Senior Economic Policy Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explains the twin pressures on Europe from rising protectionism and the “cost of openness.” Trade is fragmenting along geopolitical lines—especially in strategic sectors—while capital flows show less decoupling. Europe now faces China as a direct rival at the technological frontier and remains dependent on it for critical minerals and processing, creating choke points. Santacreu highlights three priorities: completing the single market, managing technological rivalry, and reducing supply concentration. She stresses that resilience “starts at home.” Miguel Ángel González-Simón, economist at Funcas, adds the need to advance Capital Markets Union and deepen ties with like-minded partners.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Andrea Renda (CEPS) joins host Carlos Carnicero Urabayen to unpack the implications of the EU’s AI Act and Europe’s broader role in shaping global AI governance. Renda highlights the AI Act as a bold but complex regulatory effort, warning that its global influence may be limited unless backed by stronger investment and innovation capacity. He calls for a "digital social contract" built on corporate accountability, empowered civil society, and digital literacy, while cautioning against the risks of disinformation, labor disruption, and shortsighted automation. Despite these challenges, Renda remains optimistic about AI’s potential—especially in science and sustainability—and urges the EU to launch a large-scale initiative akin to a “CERN for AI” to lead in trustworthy, human-centric innovation. He also recommends two key reads: “Strengthening international cooperation on AI” (CEPS-Brookings) and “Towards a European large‑scale initiative on Artificial Intelligence: What are the options?”, both offering frameworks for Europe's next steps in AI leadership. 

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Raymond Torres, Director of Funcas Europe, about the growing influence of the BRICS+ group and what it means for Europe. They explore how these emerging economies are shifting global power dynamics—not only through faster growth but by leading in key sectors, forming new regional trade blocs, and pushing for financial reform. The conversation highlights the strategic challenges for the EU, from supply chain vulnerabilities to geopolitical competition, and outlines how Europe can stay relevant by deepening internal integration and forging smarter, more balanced partnerships with the Global South.

As global trade fractures and geopolitical tensions mount, the EU’s Single Market is emerging as a vital strategic asset—but much of its potential remains untapped. In this Future is Blue episode, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Lionel Fontagné (Paris School of Economics) and Miguel Ángel González Simón (Funcas) about the Single Market’s resilience, the gains it has already delivered, and the urgent need to deepen integration. With cross-border trade boosting EU members’ GDP by up to 9%, and “low-hanging fruit” that could double current gains, Europe has no time to lose in strengthening its economic core.

Germany and Spain are both grappling with rising housing costs, supply shortages, and the limits of rent control—but their policy paths diverge in key ways. In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Konstantin A. Kholodilin (DIW) and Miguel Ángel González Simón (Funcas) to explore how each country is responding to growing affordability pressures, what’s holding back new construction, and what strategic lessons Europe can draw from their experiences.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Ignacio García Bercero, former EU chief trade negotiator, and Miguel Ángel González Simón, economist at Funcas, to unpack the resurgence of transatlantic trade tensions. As the U.S. reintroduces sweeping tariffs, the guests explore what’s behind Washington’s unpredictable trade stance, how the EU should respond—through both retaliation and global alliance-building—and the broader economic impact on growth, inflation, and investment in Europe. The conversation also highlights key strategic priorities for the EU beyond the U.S., including Mercosur, the Indo-Pacific, and WTO reform.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Alice Faibishenko, Senior Advisor at Funcas, to explore how the eurozone’s periphery—Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, and Italy—has evolved since the sovereign debt crisis. They discuss the different causes of the crisis across these countries, the key reforms that followed, and how structural improvements in labour markets and fiscal policy are now driving stronger growth compared to core eurozone economies. The conversation also covers investor confidence, competitiveness challenges, and the critical question of whether this convergence trend is sustainable or just temporary.You can subscribe here to the Future is Blue newsletter.

In this episode of Future is Blue, host Carlos Carnicero Urabayen is joined by Brad Setser (Council on Foreign Relations) and Miguel Ángel González Simón (Funcas) to unpack the global implications of President Trump’s newly announced 10% universal tariff on all imports — and an additional 20% duty on EU goods. The discussion explores the political motivations behind the move, the flawed logic of "reciprocal" tariffs, and the potential economic fallout for Europe, China, and the US. The episode also dives into Europe’s strategic options, from targeted retaliation to strengthening the single market and forging new alliances.Subscribe to our newsletter for free in this link.

In this Future is Blue episode, Sander Tordoir from the Centre for European Reform discusses his article Heavy Industry is Europe’s Trump Card. We explore how Europe’s manufacturing strength can drive defence rearmament, the potential of the EU’s REARM initiative, and the challenges of financing and coordination. Sander also highlights the UK’s role post-Brexit and stresses that now is a defining moment for Europe to leverage its industrial and financial power for security and resilience. 

The latest Future is Blue podcast explores Germany’s historic fiscal shift following the recent elections. Christian Odendahl (The Economist) and Raymond Torres (Funcas Europe) analyze the CDU-SPD coalition’s €500 billion investment package, which marks a break from two decades of fiscal conservatism. They discuss its implications for Germany’s economic recovery, European defense policy, and EU fiscal rules. With Berlin poised to play a more decisive role in Europe, the conversation delves into the challenges of implementing this bold policy shift and how it may reshape Germany’s leadership within the EU. Listen to the full episode here.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Antonin Bergeaud, Associate Professor at HEC Paris, about Europe’s struggle to stay competitive in a world increasingly dominated by the U.S. and China. They discuss the Draghi report’s key recommendations, Europe’s lag in innovation, the impact of regulatory fragmentation, and what the EU must do to regain its economic edge. With Trump back in the White House and global trade dynamics shifting, is Europe’s response bold enough—or is it falling behind?

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Urabayen dives into the implications of the U.S.'s evolving trade policies under a renewed Trump administration. Joined by Arancha González Laya, Dean of Sciences Po and former Spanish Foreign Minister, and Raymond Torres, Europe Director at Funcas, the discussion explores how the EU can navigate its shifting relationship with the U.S., balance cooperation and rivalry, and strengthen resilience through strategic alliances, energy independence, and capital market reforms. With insights on multilateralism, defense, and global partnerships, this episode offers a roadmap for Europe in a time of economic and geopolitical turbulence.

In this podcast episode we take a deep dive into the key economic lessons Europe has learned in 2024. From the structural challenges facing the eurozone, such as sluggish growth and energy market shifts, to Spain’s surprising economic resilience and the implications of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, we explore how Europe is navigating an increasingly complex global landscape. Joined by Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director, we also look ahead to 2025, discussing the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead for Europe’s economy.

In this episode of Future is Blue, we explore the challenges facing the EU’s industrial production and trade relationships in an increasingly fragmented global economy. Joined by Aslak Berg, Research Fellow at the Center for European Reform, and Miguel Ángel González Simón, economist at Funcas, we discuss Europe’s vulnerabilities, from energy dependence and export reliance to the diverging trajectories of Germany and Spain. The conversation also delves into the EU’s critical trade relationships with the U.S. and China, highlighting strategic risks and opportunities, and concludes with actionable insights on how the EU can adapt through diversification, domestic investment, and deeper integration.

In the latest Future is Blue episode, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen is joined by Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Senior Fellow at Bruegel and Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, and Raymond Torres, Director of Funcas Europe, to discuss the potential consequences of Donald Trump’s return to the White House on EU-U.S. trade relations. The conversation explores the risks of sweeping tariffs, the vulnerability of key industries like Germany’s automotive sector, and the broader implications for European economic resilience. The guests also highlight opportunities for deeper EU integration, strategic alignment with the U.S. on China, and diversification of global trade partnerships to navigate the challenges ahead.

Despite the common perception of migrants as a drain on resources, OECD data reveals that migrants contribute positively to public finances in most advanced economies. In a recent Future is Blue interview, Ana Damas de Matos, OECD senior policy analyst, explained how migrants support aging populations, add to the labor market, and contribute more in taxes and social security than they receive in services. With effective integration policies, countries can further boost the economic benefits of migration, proving that migrants play a vital role in sustaining and strengthening host economies.

In this Future is Blue episode, host Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Alice Faibishenko, Senior Advisor at Funcas, about the recent volatility in EU sovereign debt markets, particularly in the wake of France's turbulent elections. They explore how political instability and fiscal challenges have driven up French bond spreads, sparking renewed concerns about eurozone fragmentation. Alice provides expert insights into the broader EU implications, discussing limited contagion to other economies and the long-term need for fiscal reforms to stabilize debt markets. This conversation offers listeners valuable perspectives on navigating Europe's complex financial landscape.You can read the latest SEFO publication by Funcas here. 

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen is joined by Sander Tordoir and Raymond Torres to discuss the key findings and implications of Mario Draghi’s recent report on Europe's competitiveness. We recommend reading Draghi´s plan to rescue the European economy: will EU leaders do whatever it takes?

In this episode, Cecilia Trasi from Bruegel discusses the EU's strategy to lead global climate action, balancing decarbonization with economic competitiveness and fostering international green partnerships.The paper that is featured in this podcast is available here. 

In our latest episode, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen interviews Alice Faibishenko, Senior Advisor at Funcas, to discuss the European Central Bank's recent monetary policy changes. They delve into the ECB's long-awaited rate cut, contrasting it with the Federal Reserve's approach, and explore its implications for financial sectors and markets, particularly in Spain. The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of how these policy shifts affect households, businesses, and the broader economy, offering valuable insights for navigating the evolving financial landscape.

In this episode of "Future is Blue," host Carlos Urabayen discusses the post-election economic outlook for Europe with Sander Tordoir, Chief Economist at the Centre for European Reform, and Raymond Torres, Director of Funcas Europe. They explore the challenges and opportunities for the new European Commission, focusing on climate transition, economic growth, and digital transformation. The conversation highlights the need for increased investment, market integration, and strategic coordination to ensure sustainable growth and competitiveness in the EU.

In this episode our host Carlos Urabayen talks to Alice Faibishenko from Funcas to discuss the profound shifts in global trade and investment since the pandemic. The conversation delves into the concept of re-globalization, highlighting the challenges and opportunities faced by the European Union amidst weakening export markets and changing foreign direct investment patterns. Despite these challenges, the discussion also points to positive trends, such as the intensification of intra-EU trade and investment, which offer stability in an uncertain global economic environment. You can access here the latest SEFO report by Funcas.

In this episode, we delve into the complexities of the European Union budget with insights from Professor Iain Begg of the London School of Economics and Political Science and Raymond Torres, Director of Funcas Europe. We explore the historical context, current challenges, and potential reforms needed to make the EU budget more flexible and responsive to new challenges, such as the potential enlargement with countries like Ukraine and Moldova. Our discussion covers the contentious Common Agricultural Policy, the impact of new fiscal rules, and the necessity for innovative solutions like an EU fiscal framework to ensure sustainable and transparent EU finances. You can access here the article Challenges and dilemmas around the EU budget and here the paper also by Iain Begg for the European Parliament Options for a stronger and more agile EU budget.

Carlos Carnicero Urabayen spoke with Hans Dubois, a Senior Research Manager at Eurofound, about the pressing issue of housing affordability in Europe. The discussion covered the factors driving unaffordable housing, the impact on different demographic groups, particularly young people, and the effectiveness of various policy measures being implemented across Europe.The full report by Eurofound, titled "Affordable and Inadequate Housing in Europe," can be accessed here.

There is a growing resilience in the Spanish labor force, highlighting evolution from the historical trends of high unemployment, particularly during times of economic uncertainty. In this podcast we discuss this topic with Alice Faibishenko, Senior Advisor at Funcas.You can access the latest SEFO report from Funcas here. 

In this new episode hosted by Carlos Carnicero Urabayen, Sander Tordoir, Senior Economist at the Centre for European Reform, delved into the intricate dynamics of the global geopolitical landscape, the rise of economic nationalism and Europe's strategic positioning amidst the assertive manoeuvres of superpowers like the United States and China. Tordoir is one of the authors of the Centre for European Reform comprehensive paper "Europe and the Super Powers: Responding to Economic Nationalism".

In this episode Carlos Carnicero Urabayen interviews Patricia Sánchez Juanino to learn about current trade trends inside and outside the European Union. 

In this episode Alice Faibishenko, Senior Advisor at Funcas, talks to our host Carlos Carnicero Urabayen about key aspects affecting the Spanish economy in 2024. The conversation is based on several of the articles featured in the latest SEFO report. 

In this episode we analyze the new fiscal rules recently agreed by EU policymakers and what will be their impact on Europe's economy in the medium and long term. We are joined by Vinzenz Ziesemer, Director at the Institute voor Publieke Economie and Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director. The show is hosted by Carlos Carnicero Urabayen.

In today's show we analyse what are the key lessons learned for the EU economy in 2023. Sander Tordoir, Senior Economist at the Centre for European Reform, together with Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director in conversation with Carlos Carnicero Urabayen, Future is Blue host.

In our new podcast episode we discuss the latest SEFO publication by Funcas covering Spain's economic outlook, together with Alice Faibishenko, Senior Advisor at Funcas. 

In this podcast show Carlos Carnicero Urabayen talks to Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director, to analyse the situation regarding public deficits and debt after the pandemic, the Ukraine war and the energy crisis.

Sander Tordoir, Senior Economist at the Centre for European Reform, shares great insights about the Commission investigation into Chinese state subsidies affecting cars imported to Europe.  Carlos Carnicero Urabayen is Future is Blue host.

In today's new podcast episode we feature Alice Faibishenko, Senior Advisor at Funcas, to analyse the implications of high interest rates for financial institutions, public bodies and other actors. This subject is covered in the latest SEFO report by Funcas that you can access here. 

In our new podcast show we analyse what's behind China's debt mounting debt and the risk this represents for the world economy. Our host, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen talks to Alicia García Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, a French multinational financial services firm, and Senior Fellow at Bruegel think tank, and Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director.

In today's show, we cover the most pressing economic topics on the EU's agenda: Is Europe heading towards a recession along with persistent inflation –or stagflation in light of the recent decision of the ECB to raise interest rates?What could be a realistic fiscal scenario for the EU?The EIA is predicting a turn in energy demand, consistent with the need to fight climate change, echoing the recent G20 summit. What are the pre-requisites for this to happen in Europe?

Is the German economy again the sick man of Europe, as it was once labelled back in the late 90s? We take a look at the current economic challenges of Germany together with Sander Tordoir, Senior Economist at the Centre for European Reform, and Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director.

In this Future is Blue podcast episode, we cover the following questions about AI and the financial sector:How AI is being adopted by the financial sector, particularlyin Europe.What are some of the major applications of AI within financial services to date?Key takeaways from all this as we look to the future of AI inbanking?You can access here the latest SEFO report including an article about AI and finance.