Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

Approximately 40% of Kiwi aren’t contributing to Kiwisaver (30% when you exclude those under 18 and those retired). We dive into what could improve Kiwisaver investment with Greg Smith, Investment Specialist at Generate.We delve into the age-old debate between passive vs active investing. We also tackle AI investment and how fear and uncertainty can drive the (terrible) decision to stop investing all together.When it comes to the future, we like making big calls. Greg calls what he sees in the economy a “green tinge”, the pre-curser for actual “green shoots”.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The Reserve Bank delivered a 25-basis point hike, taking the interest rate to 2.75%, as expected. But we are happy that they are looking at the future through a more dovish lens. Export-supported regions and sectors have performed well. Consumer spending on the other hand, not so much. A strengthening of the economic recovery is important, but we're still waiting for it to broaden, too. A soft labour market is key to this RBNZ decision, and for the next two meetings coming up this year. Unemployment data looks grim. And over one in six young people in the labour force were unemployed in the June quarter.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The days of getting a university degree and automatically landing a good job are over. So what should we be doing about it? We are joined by AUT Senior Lecturer, Educator and Economist Lloyd Gutteridge, to discuss the plight of young Kiwi students and the job market they are landing in. Kiwi innovation is alive and well. One solution to New Zealand's economic woes could be the resurgence of innovative social enterprises, especially in the regions. The biggest threat to young people now is a loss of curiosity and drive. This places educators under the spotlight as they help students navigate the age of AI. When we talk about scarce resources, in the age of information we have to talk about attention. And as the proportion of neurodiverse kids increases, teaching has to adapt. Could a move back to pen and paper be part of the answer?Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week we're joined by David Moore, Kiwibank's Head of Corporate and Wholesale Credit to talk about a range of topics concerning the Kiwi economy. David's finger is on the pulse when it comes to NZ businesses. He reveals why he's cautiously optimistic about 2027, and what the catalyst will be for his cautious optimism to turn into pure optimism. House prices are sharply down from their peak. We explore what this means for Kiwi households, the regions and the economy as a whole. Kiwi businesses have done it tough these past few years. We delve into topics such as margin squeeze and liquidations to uncover what's really happening under the hood of the New Zealand economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Inflation expectations have deflated like a balloon. But that doesn't burst our bubble. In fact, we are stoked to see the numbers going in the right direction. The Reserve Bank will be too. It won't affect their current path to 3% interest rates, but a hold in 2027 is looking more likely.We'd love if the Reserve Bank took a holiday next year, just like the international travellers turning out in droves again. This last year to June had the highest number of tourists arriving since 2019.Positive manufacturing index numbers for July make it a trifecta of good news. New Zealand's manufacturing index is above the long-run average. As long as we have a weak Kiwi dollar, that strength is likely to continue.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We have a labour market round-up this week. The unemployment rate was 5.6% for the June quarter. This lags behind the rest of the economy, so it's a reflection of where we were 6-9 months ago. That's before the strength we saw in January and February (and before the oil crisis). Youth are the shock absorbers that take the impact when the economy hits a bump. With a 17.2% unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24, compared to 3.5% for those aged 35 to 44. Youth unemployment has always been elevated relative to older groups, but the current level is among the highest seen in 14 years.Overall, the picture feels bleak. Wages are not keeping up with prices (2% wage growth vs 4.1% inflation) and households are going backwards. But not all of NZ is feeling it the same way. Unemployment was 6% for the North Island compared to only 3.7% in the South Island.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We take a look at an international central bank roundup. Three banks held their rates steady last week, more concerned about growth and demand destruction than inflation pressures. We agree, we'd like to see the same here. Back home we dive into confidence data. Although the oil crisis has given both households and businesses a headache, things appear to be recovering. Albeit slowly. We talk about some beefy topics most weeks... none more so than Kiwi beef exports and the surge in demand from the US. Just in time to save us from a drop-off in demand from China. Talk about good luck!Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The latest inflation data revealed some big, scary numbers. Inflation is running at 4.1%, the highest since 2023. Electricity, meat, and of course fuel prices were up sharply. However, domestic inflation finally eased, and the core measures of inflation that strip away volatile energy and food prices are a lot less frightening.Kiwi households continue to uphold good savings habits. Although the ever soaring cost of living continues to be the biggest barrier to household savings.Geopolitical uncertainty rages on and oil prices bounce around. Renewed conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is driving business and consumer uncertainty here in Aotearoa. One thing is certain, though, and that's Jarrod's plans to convert his home into a cattle farm.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows that domestic trading activity remains weak, but cost pressures are still pushing higher. Kiwi businesses are reaching the end of their buffers and higher prices may just follow. With positive net migration, we have more people arriving than leaving the country. But that's not true for Kiwi passport holders, most of whom are still heading off to Australia for better work opportunities. One bright spot for our economy is tourism. The May 2026 data printed higher than last year - so there's hope for a good winter season (if we can get any snow). Aussies were the most likely to pop over for a visit.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The RBNZ has raised the interest rate to 2.5%. And we aren't happy. But we have a special guest on the podcast to help distract us from our foul mood. Mieneke Perniskie, Kiwibank Senior Dealer, Financial Markets joins us to discuss the implications for exchange rates.The Kiwi dollar has taken a battering this year, off the back of the oil crisis. The Kiwi-Aussie exchange rate in particular has made our exports go on sale. Good news for exporters! And we can see it in Manufacturing PMI.As the interest rates head to neutral (wherever that ends up landing), we speculate what the rest of the world is doing. And what that means for our rate differentials, and of course, currency. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Oil prices have returned to pre-war levels. The market expects the price of Dubai crude to remain between $60-70 US/barrel through to the end of the decade.The rosier oil picture lowers medium term inflation risk and reinforces our call: hold the OCR and give the economy breathing room. Read more about our call in our mid-year outlook note.We're cautiously optimistic that AI will enhance New Zealand's productivity, rather than replacing our jobs as Economists. We remain keenly interested in its impact on crowding out, regulatory lag, and competition.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We look back in time (one week) and so much has changed. We almost had a peace deal to celebrate. Oil prices dropped on hopes the deal would hold. As always, we speculate on the next move in markets, given the uncertain territory we have to navigate.The first quarter of the year and the GDP results which printed higher than expected. A stronger starting point for the year means that the demand destruction we've been feeling this quarter might set us back without completely derailing the Kiwi economy.Data points to the AI investment boom as a driver of growth domestically. We make many convincing arguments as to why we (economists) can't be replaced by AI (yet). None more salient than interpreting the future of oil distribution from the Middle East and its impact on where prices are going next.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The Reserve Bank’s official cash rate is meant to help keep the Kiwi economy stable. We talk about the optimal cash rate and make some calls with Kiwibank Rates Trader, Graham Hughes.International rates have an impact on the Kiwi through currency moves. Rates differentials between NZ and Aussie are no exception. A move higher in Kiwi rates at a time when the Aussies have finished hiking could drive moves the NZD/AUD cross.On one point we agree with a hawkish Graham, rate hikes will have to be part of the RBNZ story in the future. The question is how soon? And how high should rates go?Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We have some market mayhem to discuss, the US payroll data printed higher than expected, sending the S&P500 down 2% in a single day. We talk about the Fed and the RBNZ and much more.The AI bubble is still propping up the US share markets, but a lot of funding is being syphoned out of other areas to feed the AI machine. When will we actually see the efficiencies and profits boom off the back of this investment?Back home we have a widening gap in house prices between the North and South. We have the Central Otago and the Lakes districts where asking prices are more than 20% higher than a year ago. While the rest of the market tracks sideways.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

A big week of information to reflect on. The OCR and the Budget 2026 both out last week. Neither extremely surprising, but both giving us (and markets) plenty to digest.We dive into the forecasting scenarios of the RBNZ and Treasury. One side is too pessimistic, the other too optimistic. We feel like Goldilocks trying to find the one that’s just right.Uncertainty is still the word of the day – probably the year. An oil crisis that just doesn’t want to end, coming in an election year, and unpredictable weather events to top it all off. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Special guest alert! Cristóbal Castro Barrientos, PhD candidate at AUT and researcher at the NZ Policy Research Institute, joins us to talk about the tertiary sector.Education uptake and economic conditions are counter-cyclical. When the economy is down, enrolment in education goes up, and vice versa. In the middle of an oil crisis and off the back of two years of recession, enrolment should be surging.The fees-free policy, making first year university free, fell short. The policy didn’t address the immediate barriers to education, most of all: the higher cost of living.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve got a very special guest joining us in this episode. We talk about the financial market mayhem, currencies, and what it all means for Kiwi customers and the economy. Tim Olphert is the head of our financial markets team and has been with Kiwibank for a year. Tim has 25 years of experience in executive leadership in banking and finance.There’s a lot of pain in the economy right now. And interest rate hikes are not what we need given the pressure businesses are facing. Our view is unchanged, and we’ve added a new voice to the chorus. There’s a new Bond story in town. US 10-year bonds going higher are the canary in the coal mine for what’s coming for the US equity market and to the global economy. If the S&P500 takes a turn, Trump may finally chicken out…Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

How long will the war in the Middle East go on for? Oil price is one thing, supply is what we’re really worried about. But worryingly, the menu has changed. No more TACO, now we have NACHO. Not a chance Hormuz opens.We talk about the labour market data report card. It’s not good. Underutilisation is still high, 13%, but that slack in the labour market puts downward pressure on wages, and therefore inflation.Our view is that there’s sufficient disinflationary pressure in the economy such that the RBNZ has no reason to hike rates any time soon. We’ve been beating this drum for a while, and we stand by it.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The conflict in the Middle East is keeping us in limbo. We’re waiting for things to change. The fuel shortage we were bracing for seems less likely now. But we still have to face the prices.We have a wholesale rates market pricing in three rate hikes by October. More hawkish than the most hawkish economists – but calls for rate hikes risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.While we wait, we look at the markets and shake our heads – desensitised feels like an apt description. US equity markets are still taking off. It's like the war isn't even happening.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Our inflation forecasts are on point, but we aren’t celebrating. CPI numbers out this week tell an uncomfortable story. Inflation at 3.1% is just above the RBNZ’s target band (again), with no big downside surprises to help ease cost pressures.It’s painful to see the cost of essentials make another jump. Kiwi households struggling with the cost-of-living didn’t need food costs (fruits, vegetables and meats especially) to go up in price AGAIN in Q1 of 2026.The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed that despite pressure on prices, Kiwi businesses are struggling. Uncertainty is too high and consumers just aren’t willing (or able) to accept higher prices.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The recent cyclone has us thinking about climate change, flood maps, and insurance risk. Flood insurance is one of those administered costs that has shot up over the years, and we don’t see it reversing, if anything it’s getting worse.Trump’s failed peace talks over the weekend have us worried about inflation and most importantly, how Kiwi businesses are meant to weather yet another punch in the guts from inflated fuel prices. We speculate over the length of the conflict and already, we are looking to 2027 for an economic recovery – it feels like this year is a bust.And inflation has us talking about demand destruction, the soft economy and labour market. We have the immediate impact on prices, that causes a spike in inflation, but we don’t think that rate hikes are part of the story for this year.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

He’s back again, our reoccurring special guest Hamish Wilkinson (aka Wiklie), Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, joins us to talk currencies and uncertainties in global markets.The war in the Middle East is ramping up or winding down, we aren’t really sure. But we speculate about what it means for the Kiwi economy. We’re especially worried about what a diesel shortage could to our essential services and key industries.Wilkie talks us through what the currency pairings are doing (or not doing). Markets are barely responding to the crisis according to the volatility index is only just starting to creep up. Read more about it in our FX Tactical. Just like us, it seems that markets are waiting and watching the situation unfold anxiously.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re sitting down to talk about the current events in the Middle East. (And hope that nothing we say becomes (too) dated in the 48-hours it takes us to hit publish on the episode.) The main point of discussion being the move higher we’ve seen in wholesale rates recently. We reference an upcoming speech from Governor Breman throughout the episode which we’ve now heard and reflected on. And you can find our take on the speech here. But over all the speech emphasised the need to take time to assess. So immediate hikes (as priced in wholesale rates) are highly unlikely. We also discuss a bit on last week's GDP numbers and the risks for growth ahead. It’s not a special guest episode, but you will notice a new face this week. We welcome Alexandra to the kiwi economics team & podcast. And we look forward to her sharing some labour market expertise in future episodes. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights ⁠here⁠. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Bringing external guests onto our podcast always makes for some of the best conversations. And our chat with Dan Heyworth, owner and co-founder of Box Design and Build, was no exception. We’ve been wanting to get some more on the ground insights on all things housing and construction. And having Dan on the show was the perfect guest to unpack how the sector is really fairing, the challenges the industry is up against and some of the forces capable of shaping the future of design and construction in NZ.What began as a modular and prefabrication venture to address housing affordability quickly revealed some limitations. Dan shares how he learnt firsthand of the flawed design systems and, more importantly, the lack of consistent pipelines that makes prefab and modular solutions largely impractical in New Zealand. But there are still solutions to reduce the cost of building Kiwi homes. It’s all about simplification and standardisation. Dan walks us through how pattern books could help unlock more affordable and frictionless building across the country. What really stood out to us though was Dan’s assessment of the housing market and in turn the construction industry. We’ve been hopeful that the significant rate easing we’ve had over the past year would help bring some life back into both sectors. But it’s just not feeding through yet. As Dan puts it, the last couple of years have been quite rubbish. And things are still moving sideways. From what Dan is seeing on the ground, the recovery in construction is not one that’s coming in the next 6–9-months. But instead, much further out into 2027-2028. And that’s just the start of this jam‑packed episode. We also reminisce about the Covid‑era surge in demand for Kiwi pools, discuss the state of construction costs, and touch on New Zealand’s severe lack of investment. Plus, we also cover the ongoing loss of Kiwi construction talent overseas, and the growing role of AI in the industry.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We need to talk… about the war in the Middle East and the impacts on the global and Kiwi economy. Shipping traffic remains at a standstill at one of the world’s most strategically important oil choke points. And to no surprise, we’ve seen a massive spike in oil prices throughout the last week. With such disruptions, a near term lift in global and kiwi inflations is all but a done deal.But central banks are trained to look through near term noise. And what’s key here is that the downside risks to global and Kiwi growth majorly outweigh the upside inflation risks. We disagree with the talks of earlier rate hikes in response to such events. The weakening growth outlook simply matters more.Ultimately, we know that a rapid increase in oil prices acts like a tax on the consumer, simply straining weak household budgets further. And it’s not fair. The lift in petrol is going to hurt lower income households much more than higher income households. Meanwhile for many businesses, the conflict brings just another spanner in the works with a fresh wave of uncertainty. And under an already fragile demand environment, there will be pressure on margins as many businesses struggle to pass on higher costs. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-b...Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve sat down to discuss all about the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement. February’s meeting was the first of the year, and first for new Governor Anna Breman. And we have to say she did a great job in delivering a sensible, simple message. That being: The economy is in its early stages of recovery, settings need to remain accommodative, and inflation is going back to 2%. It’s our sentiments exactly.And why are we sipping on sludgy instant coffee you may ask? Well, it was one of the findings in our latest Spending Tracker. Compared to last year, café visits were down in January. Interestingly, Kiwis opted for restaurants and bars over their local coffee spots this summer. Yet despite fewer café trips, total spending was actually up 9% on last year, meaning every visit is hitting the wallet a bit harder. So, for now, it seems we’re gritting our teeth through our homemade instant brews instead. That was just one of the findings in our latest spending tracker. The overall theme was that while spending was robust in December, we saw quite a strong pull back in consumption in January. Households are still navigating a few headwinds before consumption can return to full strength. Overall adding to the fact that indeed the economy is still in its early stages of recovery. Tune in for more insights on our take of the RBNZ and the market reaction that’s followed. Plus, more on Kiwi summer spending.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

It’s a bit of a mix and match episode this week. We start with discussing the ugly move higher across inflation expectations. Then switch to the latest stats on the PMI and PSI activity indicators. And later end up talking about one of, if not the biggest challenges facing the Kiwi economy: an aging population. An aging population certainly isn’t a new problem. We even joke on the podcast about a note Jarrod wrote 10 years ago on the topic and how he could dust it off and change the publishing date to today and it would all still be perfectly relevant. More importantly though, an aging population is certainly not a future issue either. Treasury predicts that in just 5 years’ time, close to a quarter of all tax revenue will go to pensions alone if nothing changes. That’s a huge share of funding and takes away from other areas that badly need funding too. Lifting the retirement age, increasing KiwiSaver contributions, and making them compulsory are all part of the toolkit to tackle the issue. But so is migration. It’s the fountain of youth as Jarrod first wrote ten years ago. So fittingly, we end with a chat about the latest migration figures and where to next from here. PS: You can check out Jarrod’s demographic note from early 2017, which has truly stood the test of time, here: https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/85722/cbas-director-interest-rate-strategy-says-demography-destiny-interest-rates-immigration Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week we’ve delved into the latest labour market stats. A fitting topic as we farewell MJ on her last episode on the podcast and her time at Kiwibank. We also talk about what we’ve seen in our own hiring processThe headline unemployment rate has lifted from 5.3% to 5.4%. At first glance, the move doesn’t look good. But beneath the bonnet, there’s encouraging signs that the appetite for labour is improving. From the lift in employment to the uptick in the total hours worked.At the same time though, we’ve also seen an influx of people dusting off their CVs and reengaging with the jobs market. The labour force saw the strongest increase in two and a half years. And we’ve seen an uptick in participation. But while more talent is coming forward, labour demand isn’t yet strong enough to fully absorb the influx of new job seekers.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The gold rush has gone bust. We’ve seen a savage sell off in precious metals, just after seeing some shiny record highs. Kevin Warsh becoming the next US Fed chair has removed much of the fear within markets around diminished Fed independence. Markets are still digesting the news of Trump’s pick for Fed chair. Warsh has a reputation as a monetary hawk. And despite recently supporting lower near-term rates, markets are picking that he may return to his hawkish roots. Especially because of his strong advocacy for shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. Tune in as we discuss our thoughts on quantitative tightening, the anti-trump trade, yield curves, and the diversification out of US assets. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

New year, and we're back at it! Kicking us off - hot inflation. To a bit of dismay, Kiwi inflation ended 2025 above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. The lift in headline inflation is a frustration. But it’s the dirty details, from sticky domestic inflation to stubborn underlying inflation that are of most concern. There was overall more broad-based strength than we expected across prices in the December quarter. But the signs aren't there yet to suggest a shift in demand. Importantly, we still expect annual inflation to fall back within the band this year. Although naturally, amongst traders and the like, the discussion is shifting from rate cuts to rate hikes. We agree, the next move is likely to be a hike. But we think it is still a story for 2027. In other news, we're hiring! MJ is becoming part of the statistic and crossing the ditch. It's a big loss. But we're on the lookout for the next MMM co-host. So, if would like to join our tight-knit economics team, please get in touch or check out the link belowhttps://kiwibankpeople.csod.com/ux/ats/careersite/1/home/requisition/2827?c=kiwibankpeople Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve pulled out the crystal ball, quite literally, and gazed deep into the mists to see what 2026 has in store for the Kiwi economy!Our inner mystics have come out to play. We’ve updated our forecasts and the future is bright. We continue to forecast a robust recovery. The settings are about right. Even with a frustrating rise in retail rates. A premature move sparked by a sell off in wholesale rates following the RBNZ’s messaging misstep in November.Beyond Kiwi growth, we also discuss the outlook for housing, inflation, the labour market and migration for next year and beyond. Tune in to see what the future has in store. Additionally check out our full Outlook note here.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-b...Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

From spam in inboxes to flooded social media feeds, we’ve just been through that time of year again – Black Friday. We’ve trawled through Kiwibank card data to see just how much Kiwi spent and what they spent it on this Black Friday. And of course, by Black Friday, we really mean the whole month of November with sales kicking off well before the official calendar date This year, it looks like Kiwi favoured hammers over handbags, couches over Converse, and books over Bluetooth speakers. Kiwi are opening up their wallets, but to select stores. For now, all things housing are the winners. The festive shopping season is only just getting started. Secret Santa and stocking stuffers may see more broad-based gains across retail this Christmas. Not to mention, Boxing Day, which still reigns supreme as the biggest spending day of the year for Kiwi. For now, significantly lower interest rates are helping free up disposable incomes and boost consumption. And with 30% of mortgaged households set to roll off onto lower rates in the next six months, the outlook for retail is merry and bright. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Is this the end of the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle? We think (and hope) it is. In this episode we’re diving right into the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement. A 2.25% cash rate looks to be the bottom. That’s good news. Policy settings are now more supportive of a recovery in 2026.After 325bps of rate cuts, the RBNZ appear more confident in the economic outlook. Positive data following the RBNZ’S decision, from confidence to consumer spending, supports as much. And against the backdrop of an upbeat hawkish RBNZ, we’ve seen a big move in markets. Wholesale rates, particularly the 2yr swap rate has ratcheted 30bps higher following last week's decision. And we’ve seen the Kiwi pop back to a 57c handle.Tune in as we break down all the details from the vote, tone, and OCR track, plus the market reaction and what it all means for the outlook.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

In this episode, we’re joined by Kiwibank Treasurer Belinda Newman to unpack the current lending landscape and the state of credit demand across New Zealand...Activity remains mixed across sectors and regions. There’s still pockets of activity in the South Island, especially as farmers benefit from a weaker currency. But there’s a clear preference to pay down debt as the share of non-performing agri loans has fallen steeply. That’s great news, but it’s limited the spillover of activity into other parts of the real economy. More generally, the current weakness in the economy is still keeping credit demand subdued.One standout trend over the past year has been households opting for shorter-dated rates to take advantage of falling interest rates. And with the Reserve Bank’s policy meeting just around the corner, we explore whether we’ve reached the bottom of the rate cycle and how markets are positioning for what’s next.The conversation doesn’t stop there. We also discuss the lingering uncertainties weighing on businesses. A big one being next year’s election. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

In part two of our Phillips Curve double-header, we’re diving into inflation—but not in the usual way. This time, we’re looking through the lens of Stats NZ’s Household Living-Costs Price Index, which breaks down inflation across 13 different demographic groups, offering a more detailed view of inflation experiences across Kiwi households. And here’s where it gets interesting, because inflation is hurting some more than others. It's unfair. Households that spend the least are now facing the highest inflation. Followed closely by retirees and beneficiaries. Meanwhile, high-spending and high-income households are seeing much smaller increases in living costs. It’s a reversal of what we saw during the peak of the cost-of-living crisis. And it all comes down to interest rates. Tune in as we unpack the numbers and what it means for Kiwi households. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Tune in for part one of a double-header episode - we're looking at both sides of the Phillips Curve. This week: the unemployment rate. There’s still a significant amount of slack in the Kiwi jobs market. The unemployment rate climbed to a nine-year high of 5.3% in the September quarter, and employment was down 0.6% on the year. Wage growth also continues to moderate, another sign of a soft market. In this episode, we unpack the latest numbers, how it changes the outlook, and what it means for policyHosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve taken Markets, Mystics, & Mayhem on the road!In this episode, we’re live at DSL Logistics and joined by CEO John Widdows and COO Aaron Hobbs. We had the privilege of touring their warehouses. And we got the the inside scoop on how cutting-edge robotics have transformed their Kiwi business.As per the title of the episode, the team at DSL are unlocking efficiency and boosting productivity one robot at a time. Their tabletop sortation robotic solution to packing and processing is one-of-a-kind in New Zealand. And it’s delivering real results, from lower costs to improved reliability. And it’s opening up the door to further automation. In the fast-moving world of e-commerce, the tech positions the DSL team well to respond to growing customer demands.We also dive into how the current economic cycle has impacted DSL. We know first-hand from our own Kiwibank data, that retail has faced acute pressure over the past two tough years. The cost of living has climbed, stretching household budgets. Our conversation with DSL confirms all this. But with further cuts to interest rates and the festive season around the corner, the outlook for retail is optimistic.It doesn’t end there though. We also chat through the impact of tariffs (or lack thereof), regional differences, and even reminisce on the scramble to secure warehousing space during Covid. It’s a jam-packed episode you don’t want to miss! Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Inflation has climbed to the top end of the RBNZ’s target band. But there is no need for panic. A reacceleration in imported inflation as well as sticky administered costs are driving the move higher. But the more interest rate sensitive components of CPI, like rents and construction costs, remain soft. We continue to expect inflation to return towards the RBNZ’s 2% mid-point in early 2026The rising costs across essentials is however biting into wallets and having an impact on consumption. Our latest look at Kiwibank spending data shows that households are being forced to prioritise costlier essential goods and services over durables and discretionary items. The pass through of lower interest rates should in time help free up more disposable incomes to be spent elsewhere. Adding to this jam-packed episode, we also touch on the RBNZ’s recent announcement around relaxing LVR restrictions. That should help spur more activity into the housing market into 2026. And with that, kick the wealth effect into effect. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week, Elliot Smith, Kiwibank’s Chief Customer Officer – Business, joins us to unpack the mood across Kiwi businesses. We're diving into the impact of the RBNZ’s circuit-breaking 50bps rate cut. As Elliot puts it, the move feels like the RBNZ is finally hearing the struggles of Kiwi businesses. But while there’s been a sense of relief, caution still lingers. Businesses are starting to feel like it’s time to take action, but hesitancy remains. Amid tough operating and financial conditions, the inaction around expansion decisions have been an ongoing theme. However, with monetary policy finally at stimulatory settings, the environment is becoming more conducive to growth. Heading into the new year, conditions are ripening for momentum to build. We also discuss the performance of the business bank and the current lending landscape. It’s more competitive than when Elliot last joined us, but Kiwibank continues to play an outsized role. Plus, Elliot sheds light on Kiwibank’s startup+ pilot programme with Ministry of Awesome, designed to support innovative businesses that are harder to collateralize. It’s all about opening doors, backing good ideas, and building strong businesses that aren’t tied to the property cycle.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re celebrating our 50th episode with special guest Hamish Wilkinson, Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, to unpack our latest FX Tactical. After some time of tariff headlines driving currencies, interest rate differentials are now back at wheel driving currency movements. And with the RBNZ clearly needing to do more relative to other central banks, the Kiwi dollar has come under significant downwards pressure. So, we’re diving into the performance and outlook for the Kiwi dollar against the Greenback, Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. And as always, we couldn’t resist throwing Wilkie a curveball currency pair. This time, it felt only fitting to ask about the Krona (Sweden’s currency) given the appointment of Dr Anna Breman as the incoming RBNZ Governor. We also take some time to compare the Swedish and New Zealand economy.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve changed our call. We now expect a 50bps cut in October, followed by a 25bps cut in November. The cash rate should end the year at 2.25%. Why? because it has become crystal clear that the Kiwi economy is not recovering. So, in the wise words of Nike, “Just do it” A year on from the deep and destructive recession we were in in 2024, the Kiwi economy has slammed back into reverse. The GDP numbers for the June quarter were far worse than anyone had expected and proved once again that the RBNZ has not yet delivered the appropriate monetary policy setting. Weakness remains broad based with 10 out of the 16 industries in decline. And over the year the economy has shrunk a further 0.6%. It’s simply not what you’d expect a year after the severe recession. We should be recovering by now. But we're not. And the weakness demands more rate relief.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re back with part two of our special episode featuring Wildlife Economist and Massey University lecturer, Brendan Moyle. And this time we’re delving into Brendan’s fascinating research in wildlife economics, exploring how economics can be applied to the conservation of endangered species. As well as unpacking the economic drivers in wildlife black markets. Brendan talks us through real-world examples involving rhinos and crocodiles to show how market-based approaches can support sustainable protection. We also explore how the fall in interest rates and a crashing equity market during the 2008 GFC led to a surge in unscrupulous investment in elephant ivory—driving up poaching levels. Across all three cases, one economic principle stands out: incentives matter. If you missed part one, be sure to check out last week’s episode, “The economics of climate change”, where we explored how the climate landscape has evolved post-COVID, the global and national challenges we face, and the policy solutions available to New Zealand today. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week we’re joined by a very special guest: Brendan Moyle, an environmental and wildlife economist (and lecturer) from Massey University, to delve deep into the complexities of climate change. Brendan brings a wealth of expertise, and we’re tapping into his insights on how the climate landscape has evolved post-COVID. Unfortunately, recent developments, particularly those stemming from the US and the Trump administration are poised to exacerbate the crisis, painting an increasingly grim pictureWith electricity generation being a major contributor to global emissions, we spend a significant portion of the episode discussing energy. New Zealand is already ahead of the curve when it comes to renewable energy thanks to our abundance of hydro, wind, and geothermal resources. However, Brendan highlights that even with our strong renewables’ foundation, maintaining and expanding this advantage comes with its own set of challenges. We also touch on the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events in New Zealand. Discussions around insurance retreat and the reclassification of flood-prone zones are becoming more pressing. And the ripple effects of what this will mean for some houses and mortgages remains front of mind. Impacts like these underscore a key theme of this week’s episode that action is needed. Both in mitigation and adaptation. Brendan shares his insights on some of the most effective strategies and solutions that can be implemented to improve economic and environmental outcomes.This is the first of a two-part episode. Next week, we’ll delve into Brendan’s fascinating research in wildlife economics, exploring how economics can be applied to the conservation of endangered species. So, if you’re curious about crocodiles, elephants, rhinos, and the economics behind protecting them, be sure to tune in next week!Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Adrian Lodge – Senior Financial Markets Dealer – is back on the pod (in familiar attire), and a lot has happened since last September. Back then, we were heading into the US election, central banks were at the start of the easing cycle, and the Kiwi dollar was climbing towards 64c. Today, tariffs dominate the headlines and uncertainty remains elevated.In all that, the Kiwi dollar has lost flight. But it’s a double-edged sword. A lower Kiwi is good news for exporters, not so much for importers. Adrian shares all the anecdotes he's hearing from his clients across the importer and exporter space, and how they're positioning themselves ahead of the coming summer months and into 2026Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

After two years of forecasting, praying and rain dancing for a 2.5% cash rate, the RBNZ finally signalled such a move at their August MPS. And they did so with plenty of conviction. The OCR track was massively lowered, now signalling an 80% chance of a move to 2.5%. This is great news for Kiwi households and businesses. Interest rates are moving from providing relief to generating stimulus. Just what the economy needs. So, join us while we unpack the RBNZ’s latest bold & brilliant move. And of course, how financial markets have reacted. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The Kiwi exodus continues. Net migration flows are dropping fast, and departures from Aotearoa are nearing all-time highs. It’s a clear sign of the times. Our economy’s certainly feeling a bit rough around the edges, especially when stacked up against our mates across the ditch. It’s no surprise we’re seeing a majority of Kiwi flock over to Australia. So, in this episode we thought to stack up the two economies side by side. The beautiful, lush Aotearoa vs the brownish vegemite Australia. We’re comparing activity, labour markets, inflation, and of course, central banks. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re delving into the details of the latest labour market report. Unemployment has lifted to a five-year high. And it would have been higher if not for the steeper-than-expected slide in the participation rate. Meanwhile, details under the headline rate portray an even weaker reality. Combined with weak underlying price pressures and the fact that inflation expectations have remained comfortably within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band, all the data to date supports, if not demands, further rate relief. We should see a 25bps cut next week to 3%. And continue to call for an eventual move to 2.5%.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

It’s a market-focused episode this week because, after a couple of—dare we say—boring weeks of watching markets, we’re finally seeing some big moves. Why? Because markets are coming around to what we’ve been saying for quite some time now: that tariffs will have an impact on demand and weaken global growth. We’re seeing that start to play out now. And markets are factoring it in. The market moves follow a week of woefully weak data. No matter where you looked, whether it was US payrolls, which incredibly disappointed, or Aussie’s soft inflation report, the impacts of tariffs and their accompanying uncertainty are becoming notable. Central banks are coming around to seeing the tariffs shock for what they are: a negative demand shock which will require lower interest rates. The same message applies here at home. And markets have responded to that. So, tune in as we cover all the latest moves in equities, rates and currency. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This has to be our favourite episode yet. Because we're talking about our favourite report - the Regional. From the top of the North Island to the bottom of the South Island, and everywhere in between, we’ve just wrapped up our annual deep dive into economic performance across the country. So how does your region stack up?For the most part, regions are performing better than last year. But they’re still far from their best. The average score across the motu lifted from a 3 out of 10 to 4. Meanwhile the South Island continues to outperform the North. Otago and Southland take the crown for best performance across the country. All while Wellington remained the weakest performer. Although to give them some credit, their score did improve from last year.Our look into the regions is extensive. So, alongside this week’s episode, be sure to also check out the full report here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/the-regional-divide-widens-as-everything-just-gets-better-the-further-you-go-south/It’s packed with even more regional insights, including some amazing anecdotes from our business bankers on the ground. Plus of course, more pretty charts. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Inflation accelerated over the June quarter. But it wasn’t as bad as many had feared. And context is key. A strengthening in imported inflation is driving headline higher. But domestic price pressures, on balance, continue to cool. It’s all about what’s really going on under the hood of the headline number. So, tune in as we break down the latest Kiwi inflation report. From what’s specifically driving the rise and where price pressures are coming off. Spoiler, it's the Interest rate-sensitive parts of the consumer basket that are notably weak. And that matters for the outlook on monetary policy. With excess capacity still sloshing around the economy, domestic inflation is set to continue easing. And taken together, this latest print adds weight to our case for more rate relief.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.