Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

Ryan Loy is joined by James Mitchell, Associate Professor and Fryar Price Risk Management Center Associate Director at the University of Arkansas, to dig into the new Beef Cow and Heifer Investment Analysis tool. With cattle prices at historical highs, this free online dashboard lets producers plug in their own numbers to compare buying a bred heifer against raising one of their own, returning net present value, breakeven price, and payback period in real time. James and Ryan explain how the tool treats a cow as a long-term investment and why the opportunity cost of holding a heifer calf back matters at today's prices. 

Hunter Biram, Scott Stiles, and Breana Watkins to look at why attractive winter wheat and canola prices may draw Arkansas acres this fall. With row crop margins still squeezed by high input costs, they dig into the newly released 2027 University of Arkansas enterprise budgets for both crops, walk through a side-by-side return comparison, and explain why canola holds a gross revenue edge on paper. The conversation also covers the fundamentals driving the wheat rally and the practical realities of canola's closed-loop marketing, limited delivery points, and the learning curve growers may face with a new crop. 

Ryan Loy sits down with Matthew Marchant, a PhD student in agricultural economics at the University of Arkansas, to discuss how highly pathogenic avian influenza moves through the Mississippi flyway. They explain why the current strain spreads mainly through wild waterfowl rather than farm-to-farm contact, and how that ties bird flu risk to a predictable seasonal pattern that widens across the flyway from fall into spring. Marchant walks through what that seasonality means for producers, from timing biosecurity efforts to preparing before peak exposure arrives each year 

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the August USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports, where a recurring theme of more acres but lower yields shaped the outlook for soybeans, long grain rice, corn, and cotton. They dig into the surprising jump in corn and soybean acreage, the drought driving yield cuts from Texas through the western Corn Belt, and why cotton comes down to what gets harvested rather than what gets planted. Hunter and Scott also cover Arkansas' record projected soybean yield, a 50,000-acre increase in long grain rice, and a record soybean crush forecast. Even with tighter supplies, they explain how improved price expectations for the 2026/27 marketing year offer a bright spot against still-elevated input costs.

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy dig into why global cotton mill use is projected to reach its highest level since the 2017/18 marketing year, the fourth consecutive year of growth. They explain how the gain is concentrated in China, India, and Pakistan, which together account for nearly 75 percent of this year's increase, and why demand happening thousands of miles away shows up in the price an Arkansas producer sees. Ryan unpacks how rising crude oil prices have made cotton more competitive with polyester, and how tighter supply is pushing world ending stocks to their lowest point since 2018/19. They close on what stronger demand and a projected 73-cent season-average price could mean for cotton growers heading into the new marketing year. 

In the third and final episode of our series on USDA's Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule, Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram dig into what the rule means for rice producers' premium costs, with a timely twist, since USDA moved to reinstate the prevented planting "plus-five" buy-up just before recording. Hunter breaks down why a seemingly small change could carry meaningful consequences for producers, why those effects vary so much from county to county, and what the reinstatement means for rice farmers going forward. 

In this episode, Hunter Biram walks through how the share of long grain rice base shapes a farm's average Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payment rate, drawing on the University of Arkansas PLC Payment Calculator to run the numbers. He explains why farms with roughly 500 base acres or fewer stay insulated from payment limits, while larger operations may face a whole farm average rate that falls short of recouping 2025's economic losses. With per-acre net returns for rice running deep in the red, producers should visit their local FSA office and update their farm operating plans for the 2026 crop year before September 15th. 

 Hunter Biram is joined by Scott Stiles to go through the July 2026 WASDE report and what it means for Arkansas producers. They cover the sharp cut to long-grain rice production, now the smallest crop since 1993, and a higher price outlook. The conversation also gets into the surge in Arkansas soybean acres, a tighter corn balance sheet tied to European drought, and a larger cotton crop. With harvest running weeks ahead of schedule, better prices still aren't enough to fully offset rising input costs. 

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's June 2026 meeting ended in a federal funds rate hold, but the odds of a rate hike by September have jumped to nearly 70%. Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy unpack what's driving the shift, from lingering energy-price inflation to the disappearing benefit of last year's rate cuts on farm budgets. If the Fed does move, it's one more squeeze on operating costs at a time when farm profitability is already stretched thin. 

Rice acreage in Arkansas just hit a 50-year low, so what's driving farmers away from a crop they've grown for generations? Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles break down the 2026 USDA June Acreage Report, exploring why rice and peanut acres fell while cotton surged past expectations. They dig into soaring input costs, a wave of acres shifting to soybeans, and whether this marks a lasting structural shift for Arkansas rice. 

Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings are up 20% year over year, with Arkansas leading the nation. Hunter Biram, Ryan Loy and LSU's Mike Deliberto break down where filings are concentrated, why rising input costs have eaten into recent crop price gains, and what the new farm bill's higher rice reference price means for Delta producers facing payment limitations. 

This week on Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Hunter Biram visits with Arkansas Agricultural Hall of Fame inductee Carl Brothers about the history of rice marketing assistance loans, world market price calculations, and the growing possibility of loan deficiency payments (LDPs). Drawing on more than 50 years in the rice industry, Brothers explains how rice policy has evolved, why global competitiveness matters, and what current market conditions could mean for rice producers. 

Hunter Biram is joined by Enil Serrano and Grant Gardner to discuss the Crop Insurance Decision Maker, a web-based tool developed by the University of Arkansas and University of Kentucky that evaluates expected net returns across different crop insurance and farm program scenarios. They walk through key findings on how a farm's yield relative to the county average shapes the optimal coverage level, and why skipping crop insurance altogether is rarely the right call. 

USDA's new Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule eliminates the option for producers to purchase an additional 5 percentage points of prevented planting coverage. In this episode, Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy discuss what this change means for rice producers, how it affects flexibility within crop insurance decisions, and why Arkansas farmers may be particularly impacted given their reliance on prevented planting coverage. The conversation also explores trends in rice insurance participation, adjustment capacity, and potential implications for future risk management decisions. 

This week’s Morning Coffee and Ag Markets Podcast revisits a 2025 episode on prevented planting decisions for Arkansas rice producers as the 2026 final planting date arrives. Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy discuss when prevented planting may be financially preferable to planting using simulated yield and price scenarios. While commodity prices referenced in the original episode have changed, the core concepts and risk management considerations remain relevant, including the role of pre-plant costs, expected returns, and second-crop soybean opportunities.

Hunter Biram is joined by Scott Stiles to discuss the May 2026 WASDE report and what it could mean for Arkansas producers. The conversation covers tightening grain stocks, stronger price outlooks for soybeans, rice, and cotton, and how changing input costs and drought conditions are shaping acreage decisions heading into summer. They also discuss seasonal price trends, marketing strategies, storage considerations, and why proactive risk management may be especially important this year. 

 Arkansas soybeans have shaped the state’s agricultural landscape for the last century, growing from a rotational crop in the 1920s into Arkansas’s leading row crop today. In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Hunter Biram is joined by Brad Doyle, Doug Hartz, and Jeremy Ross to reflect on 100 years of Arkansas soybean production. The conversation explores the history of soybeans in the state, major technological advancements in production, how Arkansas farmers became leaders in soybean yields, and what the future may hold for the industry through new technologies, genetics, and market opportunities. 

Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram discuss the 2026 Arkansas net farm income outlook. While income is projected to remain steady, it is largely supported by increased government assistance as crop receipts decline and production costs rise. The conversation also highlights major acreage shifts, including a sharp reduction in rice and movement into soybeans, and what these trends may signal moving forward. 

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Eunchun Park to discuss a new integrated decision-support tool for Arkansas producers. The tool brings together crop insurance, farm program decisions, grain marketing, and input cost risk into one platform, helping producers compare their current strategies against profit-maximizing model recommendations. The conversation highlights how the tool can be used not just to maximize returns, but to better understand downside risk, test scenarios like rising input costs, and make more informed, whole-farm decisions in an increasingly uncertain environment. 

Hunter Biram is joined by Ryan Loy to discuss the March 2026 Fed decision to hold interest rates steady and what that means for farmers. While rates have eased slightly, higher input costs mean producers are still borrowing more, keeping interest expenses elevated. They also touch on how ongoing uncertainty could shape future rate decisions and what it means for tight farm margins this season. 

Ryan Loy is joined by Mike Popp to discuss his recent research on floating solar systems in Arkansas.  The discussion covers how these systems can generate electricity without taking farmland out of production, while also reducing water evaporation and potentially lowering maintenance costs. They also touch on ongoing research into feasibility, producer adoption, and willingness to pay. Check out the MCAM Newsletter (https://fryar-risk-center.uada.edu/category/publication-reports/podcast-newsletters/) for a link to the survey to share your opinion, open until May 15, 2026. 

Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram discuss the March Prospective Plantings report and what it means for 2026 crop acreage. Arkansas rice acres came in close to expectations but remain historically low, while cotton acres were higher than expected and soybean acres came in lower than anticipated. They walk through the economic factors driving planting decisions, including government programs, landlord considerations, and local yield potential. The episode also highlights how rising diesel and fertilizer costs tied to global events could still shift acreage ahead of the June report, especially for corn and rice. 

 Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy discuss the economic impact of the January winter storm on Arkansas’s poultry industry, where prolonged outages and freezing conditions led to major production disruptions. They walk through the difference between damage estimates and economic impact, highlighting over $200 million in structural losses alongside additional losses tied to bird mortality and reduced production. The conversation also explores how these losses ripple through labor income, jobs, and tax revenues across the state. While rebuilding activity will generate significant economic output, they emphasize that it largely reflects recovery from losses rather than new growth. The episode highlights the scale of the storm’s impact and what it means for producers moving forward. 

Rising input costs are creating new challenges for producers as fertilizer and fuel markets respond to global conflict and supply chain uncertainty. In this episode, Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Grant Gardner (University of Kentucky) to discuss how these shifts are impacting crop margins, input availability, and decision-making. They cover potential acreage shifts between corn and soybeans, the role of energy markets in commodity prices, and how these dynamics are influencing demand. With volatility building across multiple markets, they also discuss what producers should be watching and how to approach risk management in the current environment.

Join Hunter Biram and Breana Watkins as they discuss how rising fuel and fertilizer prices linked to conflict in the Persian Gulf are reshaping crop profitability heading into the 2026 season. Updated University of Arkansas enterprise budgets show tighter margins across several major crops as higher diesel and nitrogen costs increase production expenses. While soybean returns appear stronger in some scenarios, factors such as yield expectations, soil type, equipment needs, and rental agreements all influence planting decisions. The episode highlights how producers can use enterprise budgets to evaluate breakeven scenarios and manage risk in a volatile input cost environment. 

Hunter Biram is joined by Will Maples of Mississippi State University to discuss building a disciplined crop marketing plan for 2026. They emphasize using breakeven costs to set realistic price targets, spreading sales to manage risk, and documenting marketing decisions to reduce emotion and improve long-run performance. The conversation also highlights how marketing plans should work alongside crop insurance and Farm Bill programs to support proactive, rather than forced, marketing decisions. 

In this episode, Hunter Biram and special guest Francis Tsiboe explore how USDA’s new Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule will reshape prevented planting insurance starting in the 2027 crop year. With the elimination of the prevented planting buy-up option, producers who want to maintain similar levels of protection will now have to increase their overall coverage levels, which will raise premiums and expand exposure to other types of losses. Drawing on recent analysis from the Agricultural Risk and Policy Center, the discussion looks into why coverage substitution only partially replaces targeted planting risk protection and what this means for farm-level risk management and program costs moving forward. 

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy walk through the newly finalized Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payment rates and estimate Arkansas producers will receive about $347 million in total support. They discuss how the per-acre rates for key crops compare to earlier expectations, what the FBA does (and doesn’t) do for breakeven prices across different land tenure arrangements, and how payment limits could affect farms with heavy rice or cotton acreage. They also highlight updated tools including the Arkansas Crop Profit & Loss calculator and FBA Payment Estimator to help producers and lenders evaluate cash flow and planning going into 2026. 

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Jennifer James, a fourth-generation rice and soybean farmer from Newport, Arkansas, part owner of H&J Land Company, and host of the Field Good Life podcast. Jennifer shares her path back to the family’s Century Farm and discusses the realities of operating a diversified row crop operation in today’s economic environment.

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy discuss the launch of the National Cotton Profit & Loss Tool, a free, web-based budgeting and planning resource designed to help cotton producers evaluate profitability, breakeven points, and financial risk. Ryan outlines how the tool pairs county-level yield expectations with customizable enterprise budgets, enabling producers to run detailed what-if scenarios and build cost structures that reflect their own operations. The episode also highlights how the tool can support clearer financial planning, strengthen conversations with agricultural lenders, and invites producer feedback as the tool continues to evolve. 

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles discuss the December 2025 WASDE report, noting the most significant price reductions in rice and cotton markets. Long-grain rice prices declined 9%, while cotton fell to around $0.60 per pound, driven by sluggish export demand, higher yields, and rising ending stocks. The episode also covers corn and soybean markets, where corn exports were revised upward and ending stocks lowered, though farm price projections for both crops remained unchanged. Hunter and Scott also review the newly announced Farm Bill Assistance (FBA) Program, expected to allocate up to $11 billion to row-crop producers.

In this episode, we sit down with U.S. Senator John Boozman to discuss the major federal policy issues shaping American agriculture. We cover how Congress has approached farm policy this year, including reconciliation packages, appropriations work, and efforts to advance USDA nominees. Senator Boozman also shares insight on the state of farm economic assistance, the rollout of recent disaster and commodity support programs, and how trade and new markets fit into long-term farm profitability.

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the November 2025 WASDE, where small adjustments still led to very different price signals across major crops. Soybean and corn price projections inched higher, supported by tighter soybean ending stocks and strong corn export demand, while rice and cotton prices softened under the weight of large supplies. The episode also touches on factors to watch heading into 2026 including global demand and how South American weather could shape markets over the next few months. 

Arkansas’s 2025 net farm income was revised down by $850 million, and in this episode Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy break down what’s driving the shift. Wet spring conditions cut rice and soybean acres, delayed and smaller disaster payments pulled income even lower, and only modest livestock gains helped offset the decline. They also look ahead to 2026, where most crop margins remain negative, but updated safety-net provisions offer a bit more stability for soybeans, corn, and peanuts. 

With harvest wrapping up across much of the Midsouth, today’s episode looks at how pre-harvest marketing strategies can guide decision-making after the crop is in the bin. Ryan Loy is joined by Andrew McKenzie and Scott Stiles to discuss how to adapt pre-harvest marketing plans for the post-harvest window, factoring in storage costs, breakevens, and recent export-driven price moves in soybeans.

Join us for an in-depth discussion between Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy on prevented planting (PP) decisions in Arkansas rice production. Using simulated 2025 yield and price outcomes, they evaluate when PP could be financially preferable to planting. The episode also addresses second-crop soybean considerations and how the timing and scale of pre-plant costs can determine whether PP is a strategic choice or a costly one. 

For the third consecutive year, Arkansas crop producers are facing a hard reality — total cash expenses exceed total cash income. In this episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets, Hunter Biram, Ryan Loy, Scott Stiles, and Grant Beckwith sit down together to unpack what’s driving the financial stress on Arkansas farms.They discuss the key takeaways from the “Farm Gate Economics: Surviving the Cost-Price Squeeze” meeting, including fertilizer prices that refuse to drop and record global grain supplies. The conversation also covers cost-management tips for producers heading into 2026.

Interval timing matters more than you think when it comes to Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance. Hunter Biram and guest Walker Davis unpack new University of Arkansas research comparing dry, median, and wet counties to reveal how rainfall trends and interval selection shape profitability. They discuss interval-selection strategies—from Near Peak Forage Months to Historical Variation—and why these two outperform profit-max and basis-risk methods across most scenarios. With the December 1 enrollment deadline approaching, the episode offers practical guidance for forage and livestock producers looking to make PRF a true safety net, not a gamble.

Historic April floods in the Mid-South forced widespread replanting, setting the stage for a volatile 2025 rice marketing year. Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Alvaro Durand-Morat to unpack global market forces reshaping U.S. rice competitiveness. They discuss how India’s lifted export ban, record global harvests, and shifting import policies in key markets like the Philippines have driven prices down nearly 30% from last year. They also examine the quality challenges facing U.S. rice in contrast to Mercosur competitors, the political motivations behind trade bans, and what opportunities remain for Arkansas producers amid high beginning stocks and tightening margins. 

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 brings sweeping changes to the farm safety net. Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram break down what motivated Congress to expand Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agricultural Risk Coverage–County (ARC-CO) programs, how those updates shift risk management across regions, and the modeling behind county-level payment estimates. They also unpack what the ongoing government shutdown could mean for the timing of program payments and farm operations this fall, and take a look ahead at policy tradeoffs and payment limits likely to shape the next farm bill debate. 

The Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since 2024, easing short-term lending costs but offering little immediate relief for producers in a tough ag economy. Ryan Loy is joined by Erica Barnes Fields as they connect these market shifts to rising farm financial stress, drawing lessons from the 1980s crisis and outlining red flag warning signs and resources available to support farm families today.

Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram recap USDA’s Sept. 12 reports on this week's episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets. USDA found more corn acres while trimming yield, and futures firmed after early field reports of disease in the western Corn Belt and late-season dryness in the east. Soybeans lean toward record crush while exports lag amid South American competition and tariffs. Long-grain rice sees a downward revision in price, and cotton stays rangebound with Brazil’s growing export share in focus.

Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram sit down to talk margin insurance. They break down Margin Protection and the Margin Coverage Option, how each fits with other crop insurance plans, and the signup windows. Hunter also walks through the Margin Protection Payment Estimator tool to show how Arkansas producers can use it to check breakevens and potential payments for the 2026 crop year. 

Hunter and Ryan are back with part two of our Prevented Planting (PP) series. They look at 30 years of Arkansas trends—how PP losses surged after 2011 and have topped production losses since 2019 (often outpacing premiums), in addition to which crops drive the payouts. Rice and corn lead the pack, 2019 stands out as a peak year, and preliminary 2025 FSA data points to high PP acreage led by rice, with final tallies still coming in. They close the episode with takeaways for risk management as we head into next season.

For the fourth year in a row, Mississippi River levels are dropping to severe lows during harvest. Join Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy as they discuss how these conditions are impacting barge freight rates, soybean basis, and local cash bids. They break down what it all means for grain marketing in the Midsouth as harvest approaches.

Hunter Biram is joined by Ryan Loy to explore Chapter 12 bankruptcy trends across the U.S. and in Arkansas. They discuss what rising filings reveal about farm financial stress, how margins are tightening due to rising costs, and why this matters for producers and rural communities.

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles break down USDA’s Aug. 12 forecasts. Corn is on track for record yields and production, rebuilding U.S. supplies. Soybeans pair record yield potential with fewer harvested acres, keeping new-crop supplies relatively tight. Long-grain rice sees higher beginning stocks and a modest production bump largely offset by stronger demand. Cotton acreage is reduced; even with better yields, production declines and ending stocks tighten. Grains look well supplied, while soybeans, rice, and cotton trend tighter amid lingering demand uncertainty.

Dr. Ryan Loy unpacks the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady for the fifth straight meeting and what it means for farm borrowing costs. We also break down rising inflation pressures, the looming August 7 tariff deadline, and how trade tensions could impact input prices and export markets. Tune in for practical insights on navigating agriculture’s financial challenges in today’s uncertain economy. 

In this episode, Eunchun Park and Ryan Loy explore whether USDA’s Daily Large Export Sales Reports (DLESR) influence commodity futures markets. Unlike regularly scheduled USDA reports like WASDE, DLESRs are unscheduled and announce significant export transactions—making them potentially impactful market events. Park discusses findings from intraday futures data showing how markets may react to these unexpected announcements, especially given the unique two-day lag between a sale and its public release. The episode also contrasts DLESRs with weekly export reports, which tend to have little market impact due to their predictability and delayed information. Tune in for a deeper dive into how timing and surprise affect market movements and price discovery.

 In this episode, Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy explore Prevented Planting coverage—the indemnity within Yield and Revenue Protection policies that compensate producers when extreme events, like April’s floods, prevent planting. They explain RMA’s crop-specific base coverage factors (plus an optional 5% buy-up), walk through cost breakdowns and payment calculations, and outline rules for second-crop planting and APH yield adjustments. Join us next week for part two, where we’ll examine historical PP loss trends across Arkansas.