Morning Coffee and Ag Markets

 Arkansas soybeans have shaped the state’s agricultural landscape for the last century, growing from a rotational crop in the 1920s into Arkansas’s leading row crop today. In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Hunter Biram is joined by Brad Doyle, Doug Hartz, and Jeremy Ross to reflect on 100 years of Arkansas soybean production. The conversation explores the history of soybeans in the state, major technological advancements in production, how Arkansas farmers became leaders in soybean yields, and what the future may hold for the industry through new technologies, genetics, and market opportunities. 

Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram discuss the 2026 Arkansas net farm income outlook. While income is projected to remain steady, it is largely supported by increased government assistance as crop receipts decline and production costs rise. The conversation also highlights major acreage shifts, including a sharp reduction in rice and movement into soybeans, and what these trends may signal moving forward. 

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Eunchun Park to discuss a new integrated decision-support tool for Arkansas producers. The tool brings together crop insurance, farm program decisions, grain marketing, and input cost risk into one platform, helping producers compare their current strategies against profit-maximizing model recommendations. The conversation highlights how the tool can be used not just to maximize returns, but to better understand downside risk, test scenarios like rising input costs, and make more informed, whole-farm decisions in an increasingly uncertain environment. 

Hunter Biram is joined by Ryan Loy to discuss the March 2026 Fed decision to hold interest rates steady and what that means for farmers. While rates have eased slightly, higher input costs mean producers are still borrowing more, keeping interest expenses elevated. They also touch on how ongoing uncertainty could shape future rate decisions and what it means for tight farm margins this season. 

Ryan Loy is joined by Mike Popp to discuss his recent research on floating solar systems in Arkansas.  The discussion covers how these systems can generate electricity without taking farmland out of production, while also reducing water evaporation and potentially lowering maintenance costs. They also touch on ongoing research into feasibility, producer adoption, and willingness to pay. Check out the MCAM Newsletter (https://fryar-risk-center.uada.edu/category/publication-reports/podcast-newsletters/) for a link to the survey to share your opinion, open until May 15, 2026. 

Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram discuss the March Prospective Plantings report and what it means for 2026 crop acreage. Arkansas rice acres came in close to expectations but remain historically low, while cotton acres were higher than expected and soybean acres came in lower than anticipated. They walk through the economic factors driving planting decisions, including government programs, landlord considerations, and local yield potential. The episode also highlights how rising diesel and fertilizer costs tied to global events could still shift acreage ahead of the June report, especially for corn and rice. 

 Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy discuss the economic impact of the January winter storm on Arkansas’s poultry industry, where prolonged outages and freezing conditions led to major production disruptions. They walk through the difference between damage estimates and economic impact, highlighting over $200 million in structural losses alongside additional losses tied to bird mortality and reduced production. The conversation also explores how these losses ripple through labor income, jobs, and tax revenues across the state. While rebuilding activity will generate significant economic output, they emphasize that it largely reflects recovery from losses rather than new growth. The episode highlights the scale of the storm’s impact and what it means for producers moving forward. 

Rising input costs are creating new challenges for producers as fertilizer and fuel markets respond to global conflict and supply chain uncertainty. In this episode, Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Grant Gardner (University of Kentucky) to discuss how these shifts are impacting crop margins, input availability, and decision-making. They cover potential acreage shifts between corn and soybeans, the role of energy markets in commodity prices, and how these dynamics are influencing demand. With volatility building across multiple markets, they also discuss what producers should be watching and how to approach risk management in the current environment.

Join Hunter Biram and Breana Watkins as they discuss how rising fuel and fertilizer prices linked to conflict in the Persian Gulf are reshaping crop profitability heading into the 2026 season. Updated University of Arkansas enterprise budgets show tighter margins across several major crops as higher diesel and nitrogen costs increase production expenses. While soybean returns appear stronger in some scenarios, factors such as yield expectations, soil type, equipment needs, and rental agreements all influence planting decisions. The episode highlights how producers can use enterprise budgets to evaluate breakeven scenarios and manage risk in a volatile input cost environment. 

Hunter Biram is joined by Will Maples of Mississippi State University to discuss building a disciplined crop marketing plan for 2026. They emphasize using breakeven costs to set realistic price targets, spreading sales to manage risk, and documenting marketing decisions to reduce emotion and improve long-run performance. The conversation also highlights how marketing plans should work alongside crop insurance and Farm Bill programs to support proactive, rather than forced, marketing decisions. 

In this episode, Hunter Biram and special guest Francis Tsiboe explore how USDA’s new Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule will reshape prevented planting insurance starting in the 2027 crop year. With the elimination of the prevented planting buy-up option, producers who want to maintain similar levels of protection will now have to increase their overall coverage levels, which will raise premiums and expand exposure to other types of losses. Drawing on recent analysis from the Agricultural Risk and Policy Center, the discussion looks into why coverage substitution only partially replaces targeted planting risk protection and what this means for farm-level risk management and program costs moving forward. 

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy walk through the newly finalized Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payment rates and estimate Arkansas producers will receive about $347 million in total support. They discuss how the per-acre rates for key crops compare to earlier expectations, what the FBA does (and doesn’t) do for breakeven prices across different land tenure arrangements, and how payment limits could affect farms with heavy rice or cotton acreage. They also highlight updated tools including the Arkansas Crop Profit & Loss calculator and FBA Payment Estimator to help producers and lenders evaluate cash flow and planning going into 2026. 

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Jennifer James, a fourth-generation rice and soybean farmer from Newport, Arkansas, part owner of H&J Land Company, and host of the Field Good Life podcast. Jennifer shares her path back to the family’s Century Farm and discusses the realities of operating a diversified row crop operation in today’s economic environment.

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy discuss the launch of the National Cotton Profit & Loss Tool, a free, web-based budgeting and planning resource designed to help cotton producers evaluate profitability, breakeven points, and financial risk. Ryan outlines how the tool pairs county-level yield expectations with customizable enterprise budgets, enabling producers to run detailed what-if scenarios and build cost structures that reflect their own operations. The episode also highlights how the tool can support clearer financial planning, strengthen conversations with agricultural lenders, and invites producer feedback as the tool continues to evolve. 

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles discuss the December 2025 WASDE report, noting the most significant price reductions in rice and cotton markets. Long-grain rice prices declined 9%, while cotton fell to around $0.60 per pound, driven by sluggish export demand, higher yields, and rising ending stocks. The episode also covers corn and soybean markets, where corn exports were revised upward and ending stocks lowered, though farm price projections for both crops remained unchanged. Hunter and Scott also review the newly announced Farm Bill Assistance (FBA) Program, expected to allocate up to $11 billion to row-crop producers.

In this episode, we sit down with U.S. Senator John Boozman to discuss the major federal policy issues shaping American agriculture. We cover how Congress has approached farm policy this year, including reconciliation packages, appropriations work, and efforts to advance USDA nominees. Senator Boozman also shares insight on the state of farm economic assistance, the rollout of recent disaster and commodity support programs, and how trade and new markets fit into long-term farm profitability.

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the November 2025 WASDE, where small adjustments still led to very different price signals across major crops. Soybean and corn price projections inched higher, supported by tighter soybean ending stocks and strong corn export demand, while rice and cotton prices softened under the weight of large supplies. The episode also touches on factors to watch heading into 2026 including global demand and how South American weather could shape markets over the next few months. 

Arkansas’s 2025 net farm income was revised down by $850 million, and in this episode Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy break down what’s driving the shift. Wet spring conditions cut rice and soybean acres, delayed and smaller disaster payments pulled income even lower, and only modest livestock gains helped offset the decline. They also look ahead to 2026, where most crop margins remain negative, but updated safety-net provisions offer a bit more stability for soybeans, corn, and peanuts. 

With harvest wrapping up across much of the Midsouth, today’s episode looks at how pre-harvest marketing strategies can guide decision-making after the crop is in the bin. Ryan Loy is joined by Andrew McKenzie and Scott Stiles to discuss how to adapt pre-harvest marketing plans for the post-harvest window, factoring in storage costs, breakevens, and recent export-driven price moves in soybeans.

Join us for an in-depth discussion between Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy on prevented planting (PP) decisions in Arkansas rice production. Using simulated 2025 yield and price outcomes, they evaluate when PP could be financially preferable to planting. The episode also addresses second-crop soybean considerations and how the timing and scale of pre-plant costs can determine whether PP is a strategic choice or a costly one. 

For the third consecutive year, Arkansas crop producers are facing a hard reality — total cash expenses exceed total cash income. In this episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets, Hunter Biram, Ryan Loy, Scott Stiles, and Grant Beckwith sit down together to unpack what’s driving the financial stress on Arkansas farms.They discuss the key takeaways from the “Farm Gate Economics: Surviving the Cost-Price Squeeze” meeting, including fertilizer prices that refuse to drop and record global grain supplies. The conversation also covers cost-management tips for producers heading into 2026.

Interval timing matters more than you think when it comes to Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance. Hunter Biram and guest Walker Davis unpack new University of Arkansas research comparing dry, median, and wet counties to reveal how rainfall trends and interval selection shape profitability. They discuss interval-selection strategies—from Near Peak Forage Months to Historical Variation—and why these two outperform profit-max and basis-risk methods across most scenarios. With the December 1 enrollment deadline approaching, the episode offers practical guidance for forage and livestock producers looking to make PRF a true safety net, not a gamble.

Historic April floods in the Mid-South forced widespread replanting, setting the stage for a volatile 2025 rice marketing year. Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Alvaro Durand-Morat to unpack global market forces reshaping U.S. rice competitiveness. They discuss how India’s lifted export ban, record global harvests, and shifting import policies in key markets like the Philippines have driven prices down nearly 30% from last year. They also examine the quality challenges facing U.S. rice in contrast to Mercosur competitors, the political motivations behind trade bans, and what opportunities remain for Arkansas producers amid high beginning stocks and tightening margins. 

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 brings sweeping changes to the farm safety net. Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram break down what motivated Congress to expand Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agricultural Risk Coverage–County (ARC-CO) programs, how those updates shift risk management across regions, and the modeling behind county-level payment estimates. They also unpack what the ongoing government shutdown could mean for the timing of program payments and farm operations this fall, and take a look ahead at policy tradeoffs and payment limits likely to shape the next farm bill debate. 

The Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since 2024, easing short-term lending costs but offering little immediate relief for producers in a tough ag economy. Ryan Loy is joined by Erica Barnes Fields as they connect these market shifts to rising farm financial stress, drawing lessons from the 1980s crisis and outlining red flag warning signs and resources available to support farm families today.

Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram recap USDA’s Sept. 12 reports on this week's episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets. USDA found more corn acres while trimming yield, and futures firmed after early field reports of disease in the western Corn Belt and late-season dryness in the east. Soybeans lean toward record crush while exports lag amid South American competition and tariffs. Long-grain rice sees a downward revision in price, and cotton stays rangebound with Brazil’s growing export share in focus.

Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram sit down to talk margin insurance. They break down Margin Protection and the Margin Coverage Option, how each fits with other crop insurance plans, and the signup windows. Hunter also walks through the Margin Protection Payment Estimator tool to show how Arkansas producers can use it to check breakevens and potential payments for the 2026 crop year. 

Hunter and Ryan are back with part two of our Prevented Planting (PP) series. They look at 30 years of Arkansas trends—how PP losses surged after 2011 and have topped production losses since 2019 (often outpacing premiums), in addition to which crops drive the payouts. Rice and corn lead the pack, 2019 stands out as a peak year, and preliminary 2025 FSA data points to high PP acreage led by rice, with final tallies still coming in. They close the episode with takeaways for risk management as we head into next season.

For the fourth year in a row, Mississippi River levels are dropping to severe lows during harvest. Join Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy as they discuss how these conditions are impacting barge freight rates, soybean basis, and local cash bids. They break down what it all means for grain marketing in the Midsouth as harvest approaches.

Hunter Biram is joined by Ryan Loy to explore Chapter 12 bankruptcy trends across the U.S. and in Arkansas. They discuss what rising filings reveal about farm financial stress, how margins are tightening due to rising costs, and why this matters for producers and rural communities.

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles break down USDA’s Aug. 12 forecasts. Corn is on track for record yields and production, rebuilding U.S. supplies. Soybeans pair record yield potential with fewer harvested acres, keeping new-crop supplies relatively tight. Long-grain rice sees higher beginning stocks and a modest production bump largely offset by stronger demand. Cotton acreage is reduced; even with better yields, production declines and ending stocks tighten. Grains look well supplied, while soybeans, rice, and cotton trend tighter amid lingering demand uncertainty.

Dr. Ryan Loy unpacks the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady for the fifth straight meeting and what it means for farm borrowing costs. We also break down rising inflation pressures, the looming August 7 tariff deadline, and how trade tensions could impact input prices and export markets. Tune in for practical insights on navigating agriculture’s financial challenges in today’s uncertain economy. 

In this episode, Eunchun Park and Ryan Loy explore whether USDA’s Daily Large Export Sales Reports (DLESR) influence commodity futures markets. Unlike regularly scheduled USDA reports like WASDE, DLESRs are unscheduled and announce significant export transactions—making them potentially impactful market events. Park discusses findings from intraday futures data showing how markets may react to these unexpected announcements, especially given the unique two-day lag between a sale and its public release. The episode also contrasts DLESRs with weekly export reports, which tend to have little market impact due to their predictability and delayed information. Tune in for a deeper dive into how timing and surprise affect market movements and price discovery.

 In this episode, Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy explore Prevented Planting coverage—the indemnity within Yield and Revenue Protection policies that compensate producers when extreme events, like April’s floods, prevent planting. They explain RMA’s crop-specific base coverage factors (plus an optional 5% buy-up), walk through cost breakdowns and payment calculations, and outline rules for second-crop planting and APH yield adjustments. Join us next week for part two, where we’ll examine historical PP loss trends across Arkansas. 

In this episode, Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram unpack USDA’s July WASDE, which largely met expectations as favorable weather and robust yields continue to underpin ample supplies. Soybean acreage cuts trimmed production slightly, but stronger crush demand held stocks steady and nudged forecast prices lower; long-grain rice saw acreage-driven production cuts offset by demand revisions that lifted ending stocks; corn stocks eased on old-crop export gains and residual adjustments; and cotton output rose on expanded acreage despite a modest yield dip. Overall, heavy stocks across the board keep downward pressure on price outlooks as we look ahead to the August 12 report. 

In this episode, Hunter Biram and Will Maples break down recent federal policy updates affecting U.S. agriculture. The newly passed “One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) strengthens the farm safety net with major changes to PLC, ARC, and crop insurance—including higher reference prices, expanded SCO eligibility, and increased premium subsidies. They also discuss the “Skinny” Farm Bill’s potential follow-up measures and USDA’s rollout of SDRP disaster payments for producers impacted by 2023–24 natural disasters. 

In this episode, Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles recap one of the quietest June 30 USDA reports in recent memory. With little market reaction, they dig into what the numbers mean for corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice heading into the July WASDE. Corn and soybean acres came in slightly under expectations, while cotton saw a surprise jump and rice acres declined more than forecast. The team breaks down how these shifts may influence production, stocks, and pricing in the months ahead—and why weather will play a critical role in shaping markets through mid-summer. 

In this episode, Ryan Loy and Scott Stiles break down the rise in Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies and why Arkansas now accounts for over a quarter of filings in the 8th Circuit. They explore what this trend reveals about farm financial stress, how rising input costs and stubbornly low margins are squeezing operations, and why the disparity between prices received and prices paid continues to threaten farm solvency. From national policy shifts to local realities, tune in to understand the economic warning signs facing family farms across the South. 

Prices are down, breakevens are up — and Arkansas producers are stuck in the middle. In this episode, Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy walk through the latest crop market trends and how the updated Arkansas Profit/Loss Tool can help producers make sense of where they stand. With the June WASDE confirming price pressure for corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans, the duo explores how to use the tool to evaluate your own breakeven points, marketing windows, and risk. Whether you own, rent, or crop share, this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets gives you the data and decision support to take control of your 2025 bottom line.

In this episode, Scott Stiles and Dr. Hunter Biram unpack the June WASDE report and its big surprises for U.S. rice and cotton production. The duo also dives into the latest Senate proposal on farm safety net reform, including a 15% increase to PLC reference prices, expanded ARC-CO guarantees, higher crop insurance subsidies, and extended benefits for beginning farmers. Grab your coffee for a data-packed discussion on shifting ag markets and evolving safety net policy. 

Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy sit down with Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat to discuss the outlook for U.S. long-grain rice in the 2025/26 marketing year. They cover the latest global supply and demand dynamics, including record global rice production and rising use in key markets. The discussion highlights USDA’s projection for lower U.S. rice exports and competition from South American suppliers, as well as trends in rice prices and trade policy developments. Grab your coffee and join us for an in-depth update on the global rice market and what it means for U.S. producers. 

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Hunter is joined by Walker Davis, a graduate student at the University of Arkansas, for an insightful discussion on the complexities of Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance policy selection. Together, they dive into Walker’s ongoing research titled “Analyzing the Upside and Downside Risk in PRF Policy Selection: Timing Mismatch.”Tune in as they break down how timing mismatches between rainfall indices and forage production can significantly impact risk exposure and policy effectiveness. Whether you're a producer, policymaker, or student of agricultural economics, this conversation offers valuable perspectives on navigating PRF decisions in a changing climate and market landscape.Grab your coffee and join us for a timely and thought-provoking conversation!

Pour yourself a fresh cup and join Riley, Hunter, and Ryan at the table for this special episode of Morning Coffee and AG Markets. Today, the trio dives into the surprising 22% increase in Arkansas' net farm income — a jump largely driven by federal economic support and weather-related disaster assistance. They unpack what’s behind the numbers, how one-time payments are masking deeper volatility in the ag sector, and what this means for producers heading into the next crop year. With their signature blend of insight, straight talk, and a touch of humor, the crew brings clarity to the policies and pressures shaping rural economies today. From the sectors that saw the biggest gains to the long-term sustainability of this income spike, this episode delivers timely analysis on what matters most to ag producers. Your morning coffee never tasted so informative.

Dr. Hunter Biram sits down with Scott Stiles, Extension Program Associate in Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, to discuss key takeaways from the May 2025 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The duo notes that the May USDA WASDE report provides the first look at prices for the 2025/2026 crop year and that continued downward pressure on prices might trigger farm programs for some crops.

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Dr. Hunter Biram visits with Dr. Ryan Loy about the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on May 6-7, 2025 and implications for short and long-term interest rates. Dr. Loy also discusses the differences in breakeven yields and prices for corn, soybean, and rice farmers under full ownership of agricultural land, cash rent, and a 75-25 crop share rental agreement.

 Join Riley for a fresh brew of ag insights on this weeks episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets. As he's joined by Dr. Hunter Biram and special guest Dr. Andrew McKenzie to unpack the critical intersection of forward contracting and crop insurance in today’s volatile ag markets. Drawing from recent findings, the discussion explores how combining forward contracts with Revenue Protection (RP) crop insurance can stabilize farm revenue, even when yield shortfalls trigger non-delivery penalties. Learn how strategic risk layering helps producers confidently market their grain while safeguarding against both market and production risks. Don’t miss this practical, research-backed conversation on managing uncertainty in agriculture. 

In today’s episode of Morning Coffee and AG Markets, Riley covers the latest on Arkansas’ row crop planting progress after heavy early April rains. The USDA report shows planting is slightly behind last year, but recent dry weather helped farmers regain ground.Riley also breaks down fertilizer market trends, with notable price jumps in urea, UAN, DAP, and potash, and explains the difference between wholesale and retail price movements. Plus, a look at crude oil prices near four-year lows and what cheaper fuel could mean for planting season.Grab your coffee and tune in for a quick snapshot of the AG markets as the 2025 season picks up.

This morning on Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Riley Smith is joined by Dr. Hunter Biram, Extension Agricultural Economist at the University of Arkansas, to discuss the preliminary findings of a new report estimating nearly $79 million in crop-related damages from the historic April 2025 flooding across 32 Arkansas counties. With over 30% of early planted acres impacted—including corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat—Dr. Biram breaks down the economic toll using field-level reports, crop budgets, and insurance data, highlighting the major losses from replant costs, sunk input expenses, and lost production value. Tune in for a timely conversation on how this generational flood event could shape the rest of the 2025 growing season.

This morning, we’re shining a light on the Southern Risk Management Education Center (SRMEC), led by Dr. Ron Rainey at the University of Arkansas. SRMEC is helping farmers across the Southeast tackle the everyday uncertainties in ag—from weather to markets—through risk education, crop insurance navigation, and financial planning tools. Whether you're just starting out or have decades in the field, SRMEC’s programs, including the Crop Insurance Navigator, are designed to help producers make informed, financially sound decisions for a more secure future.For more info, visit srmec.uada.edu or call 877-866-1848.

 In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Riley and Scott dive deep into the USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings report and its price implications for corn and soybeans. They break down the anticipated 95.3 million acres of corn—4.7 million more than last year—marking the highest U.S. corn acreage since 2013. This surge, however, puts downward pressure on corn prices, especially with a potential record crop in 2025. Meanwhile, soybean acreage is set to decline to its lowest level in five years, potentially tightening supplies and driving prices higher. Tune in as they analyze these trends and explore what they mean for farmers and the broader market.