All Episodes
Notes on the Week Ahead — 354 episodes · page 1 of 4
A Season of Moderation in the Year of Boom and Doom
The PCE-CPI Gap and the Outlook for Further Fed Tightening
The Fed Paints itself into a Rate-Hiking Corner
The New, New Normal
Labor Market Mysteries
The Road to $40 Trillion
What Lies Beneath: An Updated Outlook on the Economy and Investing
The People versus Inflation
A Top Down View of the Earnings Surge
The Fed Communications Debate: Bernanke Versus Warsh
Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market
The Healing of Housing
The MOU and Warsh: A Changing Macro Landscape
The Inflation Outlook and Fed Policy under New Leadership
Investing in a Divergent Economy
Five Scenarios for the Federal Debt
Quarter Days and the Economic Outlook
AI, Inflation and Interest Rates
The Latest News and the Economic Outlook
The Receding Tariff Tide
The Investment Implications of Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
How Will It End?
An Updated Outlook for the U.S. Economy
The Investment Implications of the Tariff Decision
Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook
Real Economy Challenges
The Federal Reserve – New Leadership, Same Landscape
The Direction of the Fed
International Equities: Looking Beneath the Currency Icing
A Baseline Forecast for 2026
Why Stocks are Outperforming the Economy
Forecasting the Fed’s Forecasts
The Outlook for Autos
The Health of the Consumer
Why a 1:13 expansion feels like a 1:20 recession
The Importance of Navigation in the Dark
Oil, Inflation and the Fed: The Slide and the Rollercoaster
Going Broke Slowly: The Investment Implications of Still-Rising Federal Debt
The Investment Implications of the Government Shutdown
Checking the Foundations of a Roaring Bull Market
Truth or Consequences: The Fed’s Next Move
Rate Rescue Reality Check
Back from the Beach: Reviewing the Investment Landscape
The Investment Implications of the Refund Surge
Why Money Doesn’t Talk Any More
The Inflation Outlook
The Investment Implications of Weaker Labor Supply
The Fed Decisions
Underreacting and then Overreacting to Policy Shocks
The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar
OBBBA and a Cold, Hot, Cold Forecast
Tariffs and Inflation
Economic Sogginess and the Market Party
The Macro Jigsaw
Policy and the Investment Landscape: An Update
A Softer Sort of Slowdown
Tracking the Economic Slowdown
Recession Risks, Resilience and American Exceptionalism
Tariff Turmoil and Investment Strategy
Fiscal Fudge
The Wait and See Economy
The Trouble with Tariffs
The Implications of Slowing Population Growth
The Growth Drag from Policy Uncertainty
Europe: The Slow and Steady Train
The Investment Implications of the Trade War
White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing
The Big Picture on Debt, Deficits and Interest Rates
Interest Rates, Inflation and the Uncertainty Tax
Stability and Extremes
Reading Between the Lines (On the Direction of Monetary Policy)
Initial Conditions
Irish Lessons
Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook
The Investment Implications of the Republican Sweep
Finding Balance in a Broadening Expansion
The Deficit, the Election and Interest Rates
Four Banks and the Dollar
The Investment Implications of the Wealth Surge
The Investment Implications of a $769,900,000,000 Mistake
Previewing the Fed: Easy Does It
The Jobs Mosaic
Demographics, Debt, the Dollar and Apocalyptic Assets
Jackson Hole and the Speed of Fed Easing
The Outlook for Housing in a Macro Game of Inches
The Slowdown Scenario
Concentration Risk as the Fed gets Ready to Cut
Is 4.1% Unemployment a Recession Warning?
Expansion on Broadway
Risks and Exposure
The Wide and Foggy Road
The Normalization of an Abnormal Job Market
The Causes and Consequences of Gloom and Doom
The Investment Implications of the Federal Debt: An Update
Commercial Real Estate: Macro Risk or Investment Opportunity?
The Right Track
The Causes and Consequences of More Volatile Bonds
The Dollar Dynasty
The Right Time to Cut Rates
Wage War