All Episodes
Notes on the Week Ahead — 340 episodes
Investing in a Divergent Economy
Five Scenarios for the Federal Debt
Quarter Days and the Economic Outlook
AI, Inflation and Interest Rates
The Latest News and the Economic Outlook
The Receding Tariff Tide
The Investment Implications of Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
How Will It End?
An Updated Outlook for the U.S. Economy
The Investment Implications of the Tariff Decision
Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook
Real Economy Challenges
The Federal Reserve – New Leadership, Same Landscape
The Direction of the Fed
International Equities: Looking Beneath the Currency Icing
A Baseline Forecast for 2026
Why Stocks are Outperforming the Economy
Forecasting the Fed’s Forecasts
The Outlook for Autos
The Health of the Consumer
Why a 1:13 expansion feels like a 1:20 recession
The Importance of Navigation in the Dark
Oil, Inflation and the Fed: The Slide and the Rollercoaster
Going Broke Slowly: The Investment Implications of Still-Rising Federal Debt
The Investment Implications of the Government Shutdown
Checking the Foundations of a Roaring Bull Market
Truth or Consequences: The Fed’s Next Move
Rate Rescue Reality Check
Back from the Beach: Reviewing the Investment Landscape
The Investment Implications of the Refund Surge
Why Money Doesn’t Talk Any More
The Inflation Outlook
The Investment Implications of Weaker Labor Supply
The Fed Decisions
Underreacting and then Overreacting to Policy Shocks
The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar
OBBBA and a Cold, Hot, Cold Forecast
Tariffs and Inflation
Economic Sogginess and the Market Party
The Macro Jigsaw
Policy and the Investment Landscape: An Update
A Softer Sort of Slowdown
Tracking the Economic Slowdown
Recession Risks, Resilience and American Exceptionalism
Tariff Turmoil and Investment Strategy
Fiscal Fudge
The Wait and See Economy
The Trouble with Tariffs
The Implications of Slowing Population Growth
The Growth Drag from Policy Uncertainty
Europe: The Slow and Steady Train
The Investment Implications of the Trade War
White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing
The Big Picture on Debt, Deficits and Interest Rates
Interest Rates, Inflation and the Uncertainty Tax
Stability and Extremes
Reading Between the Lines (On the Direction of Monetary Policy)
Initial Conditions
Irish Lessons
Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook
The Investment Implications of the Republican Sweep
Finding Balance in a Broadening Expansion
The Deficit, the Election and Interest Rates
Four Banks and the Dollar
The Investment Implications of the Wealth Surge
The Investment Implications of a $769,900,000,000 Mistake
Previewing the Fed: Easy Does It
The Jobs Mosaic
Demographics, Debt, the Dollar and Apocalyptic Assets
Jackson Hole and the Speed of Fed Easing
The Outlook for Housing in a Macro Game of Inches
The Slowdown Scenario
Concentration Risk as the Fed gets Ready to Cut
Is 4.1% Unemployment a Recession Warning?
Expansion on Broadway
Risks and Exposure
The Wide and Foggy Road
The Normalization of an Abnormal Job Market
The Causes and Consequences of Gloom and Doom
The Investment Implications of the Federal Debt: An Update
Commercial Real Estate: Macro Risk or Investment Opportunity?
The Right Track
The Causes and Consequences of More Volatile Bonds
The Dollar Dynasty
The Right Time to Cut Rates
Wage War
Dot-Plot Danger and QT Limits
From Business Cycle to Stretched-Out Expansion
Japanese Lessons
The Investment Implications of the Migration Surge
The Pressures of a Full Employment Economy
Will Job Market Strength Delay the Inflation Slide?
Too Much Growth for Early Easing
A Thaw in Sentiment
Will Rising Federal Debt Force Rates Higher?
The Inflation Slide Looks Set to Continue
Balance Sheets and Resolutions
The Investment Climate
Winter Driving: Can the Economy Keep Growing into 2025?
The Remarkable Resilience of Corporate Margins
Falling Tensions in a Cooling Economy
Tracking the Inflation Slide
Slowdown Delayed; Cooldown Ahead of Schedule
The Addicted Consumer
Investing in World of Increasing Complexity
The Investment Implications of a Rising Federal Deficit
The View from the Top of Tightening Mountain
Worrying about Oil
Unemployment and Wage Inflation
Letter from Wyoming
Real Rates in the Long Run
Bull Market Investing
The Soft Landing Scenario
The Inflation Perfectionists
The Sin of Wages: A Last, Bad Excuse for Monetary Tightening
The Investment Implications of Consumer Gloom
Waiting for a Negative
The Recession Questions: Yes, No, When and How Bad?
Cooler Inflation and Slower Growth should Convert a Fed Skip into a Fed Pause
The Steady Normalization of the U.S. Labor Market
Sizing up the angles on Fed policy
Slow-Motion Slowdown
Debt-Ceiling Cliff Dancing
When Money Stops Talking
The Road Back to 2% Inflation
The Real Threat to Dollar Dominance
The Recessionary Price of a Faster Decline in Inflation
The Economic Impact of Banking Turmoil
The Investment Implications of a Demographic Bounce
Investing Beyond The Profit Squeeze
A Seasonal Surge (and its Implications for Jobs, Growth, Inflation and Rates)
The Lurking Slowdown
A Turning Point for the Economy
Debt-Ceiling Danger
Resolution and Confidence
The Challenged Consumer
The Investment Implications of the Oil Slide
Redhotnot – The Investment Implications of the Job Market Mosaic
The Investment Implications of the Housing Slump
Recession Risks: Standing on the Edge of a Swamp
The Market-Moving Menu of Data and Events
Lifting the Fog of Uncertainty on Growth, Inflation, Politics and Rates
The Monetary Implications of Fiscal Drag
The Slope of the Inflation Slide
The Recession that Didn’t Bark
The Scales of Fundamentals and Price
Why the Fed should worry less about sticky inflation (but probably won’t)
Job Openings, Recession Risks and Prospects for a Fed Reversal
The Investment Implications of Jackson Hole
A Line in the Sand on Inflation
The Global Inflation War
The Inflation Cold Front
Twists and Turns on the Road to a Better Investment Environment
From Allegro to Adagio: Growth, Inflation and the Fed
The Lag in the Drag
The Quiet Machinery of Repair
The Rollover Race between Growth and Inflation
Recession Risks and Investment Implications
The Keeping Cool Heads amidst Hot Inflation
The Investment Implications of Food and Energy Inflation
Growth? Inflation? Recession? Principles!
The Investment Implications of a Falling Budget Deficit
Slowing Growth and the Potential for an Extended Soft Landing
The Dollar in a World of Worries
Killing it Softly: How the Fed should Fight Inflation
The Economy and Markets after a First-Quarter Roller Coaster
Where have all the workers gone?
Small Paddle, Big Rapids: What the Economy Could Do to the Fed
Getting Going on Monetary Tightening
Ukraine and the U.S. Economy
The Financial Backdrop as Ukraine Waits and Worries
Ukraine: The Investment Implications of a Loser’s Game
Interest Rates: How High and How Fast?
Feddle
Housing and the Fed
The Recession Scenario
Shifting Fundamentals Still Point to Higher Rates
Pumping the Brakes on the U.S. Economy
The Fed turns more hawkish…for now
The Great Worker Shortage
The Investment Implications of Omicron
More Clarity and Less Stimulus from Washington
Why Inflation still looks mostly Transitory
Getting Back on the Recovery Track
The Pandemic and Financial Waves
The Stagflation Scare
Facing Reality on Growth and Inflation
The American Consumer: Still Ready to Drive the Recovery
Haircuts and Roulette Wheels: Are we “Due” for a Correction?
Washington games and their consequences for risks, taxes, stimulus and investing
Speedbumps on the Road to Recovery
Monetary and Fiscal Timetables
The Profits Wave
The Investment Implications of a Mutating Economy
New Palette Same Picture
The Variants and the Vaccines
Speeding More Slowly
After the Storm
The Season of Supercharged Demand
Why the Bond Market is Ignoring Inflation
The Fed’s Forecasts
The Evolving Expansion
U.S. Housing - Booming not Bubbling
Midterm Report Card
The Jobs Mosaic and the Outlook for Interest Rates
The Washington Menu
Commodities and the Risk of Inflation
Inflation, Taxes and the Need for Mindful Investing
Double-Dose
The Calm before the Surge
Runway for the Rotation
Time for a Fed Change of Tune
Boil then Simmer
Interest Rates and Equities in a Strengthening Economy
Interest Rates in an Early Spring
Investing With a Lead
A New Year for China
The Race to Full Employment
The Pandemic Crisis and the Policy Reaction
The Investment Implications of Biden Rescue Plan
The Price of Partisanship
The Investment Implications of the Stimulus Deal
What the Fed Can’t Fix
The Need for Support more than Stimulus
The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar
The Winter Wave and the 2021 Rebound
A Long-Term Perspective on Investing
Mapping out the road ahead
Recovery Realities
Reversing the Population Pause
The Fed’s Timetable
The Investment Implications of a Contested Election
The Problem with MMT
The Pandemic Marathon
An Exuberant Rally in an Incomplete Recovery
Average-Inflation Targeting in a Washington without Hawks
The Human Implications of the Washington Stalemate
The Investment Implications of the Coronavirus Debt Surge
The View from the Base of Recovery Mountain
An Antidote to Risk
The Backroads of Economic Recovery
The Investment Implications of a Rolling-Wave Pandemic
Risks to the Market
The Patchwork Quilt
Patterns of Recession
Lessons from East Asia
Inflation risks in the wake of the pandemic
The Road to Recovery
Why the stock market isn't more worried
The Investment implications of the CARES act
Holding an economy in suspended animation
The Investment Implications of COVID-19 ; an update
The year of the virus
When Markets drift apart
Adjusting strategy for slower growth
Virus
Getting to 21 without going bust
Stable Growth, Fading Risks and Rising Valuations
Understanding Underreaction
Hot and Cold Wars
A Turning Point in Trade Turmoil
Holding pattern
Extra Toothpaste in the Tube: The Remarkable Elasticity of U.S. Labor Supply
Giving Thanks and Planning Ahead
Fiscal Truth and Investment Consequences
The Inflation Corridor
A Sudden Change in Seasons: Investing in a Slower-Growing Economy
Jigsaw
The Problem with Profits
Winning Ugly
Close Calls
2020 Vision and Political Distortions
Why the Fed shouldn’t cut rates on Wednesday (but probably will)
Recession or Resilience: The Hiring Tiebreaker
Filling in the Demographic Pothole
The Message from the Yield Curve
Investing for the Middle Run
The Investment Challenge from Washington Policies
New Brush Strokes for the Big Picture
Summer Sequels
The Investment Implications of Excessive Stimulus
Chairman Powell’s Message
Can the Fed stop at just two rate cuts?
Schrodinger’s Market
The Fed Shows its Hand
Nice Levels – Shame about the Pace
Investing for a Middle-Case Scenario
The Slowdown is Coming -Take Two
Adjusting to Demographic Reality
Tariffs and the Lessons of History
The hierarchy of monetary mistakes
Investment implications of 'All systems go'
Slowdown is coming
Federal credit card day
Down the middle of a narrowing road
Water stops
Framing the Fed
Delaying deadlines
Wheels down for soft landing
Why deficits matter - The problem with one more steak
The extra sixpence
Political lions and corporate cattle
Decaffeinated economy
Microwaves and markets
Labeling the boxes
Wounded Warriors
Earnings and the fog of Wall
Momentum investing, momentum economics, Washington
Investment implications of stock market swoon
Happy Holidays!
One Sword and Three Dragons: What the Fed Should Do Next
A better way to forecast growth
Reduced risks
Chinese-American chicken
Giving thanks for low inflation
Pay, wait or forget about it
Cyclical implications of mid-term elections
Grass beneath the leaves - Fundamentals still supporting
Friday night lights out
A tumble without a theme
The case of rising rates
Balance at takeoff, landing
The asset arcade
The problem with populism
Fixing the roof and making hay
The investment implications of a return to 2% growth
The flight to Jackson Hole
Getting the test back
Organizing the international desk
The Fed's focus
Four to six inches of GDP growth
The danger in the deficit
Pizza Shop Pressures - Economic disortions at the edge
Heating Up, Cooling Down, Preparing for What Comes Next
Halftime checklist
My Trade Deficit with Costco
The hare and the pack
Vodka and Espresso
Roadblocks
American retailer habits