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Podgecaste Brazil
by Podgecaste
The show where we talk about politics, predictions, and Brazil. podgecaste.substack.com
Episodes
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Bonus: Our Wrap-Up of The First Round of Brazil’s 2026 Elections
The results of the first round of Brazil’s 2026 election have been simultaneously surprising and predictable. Flávio Bolsonaro has secured an upset in the first round, coming in 2 percentage points ahead of the incumbent Lula. Beyond the presidential result, there have also been shock outcomes...
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Understanding Latin America’s Economic Wins and Woes w/ John Authers (#35)
Discussed: * John’s introduction to Latin America via The Financial Times. * Why the IBOVESPA was one of the best investments you could make in the early 2000s. * By the way, John was a colleague of a former guest of this podcast, Richard Lapper, whose appearance you can listen to here. * Foreign...
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Will Flávio Bolsonaro Pull Off The Ultimate Upset? (#34)
Discussed: * The Path to The Planalto #02. Read it now. * Will ‘Tight Washout Theory’ survive? * Key battlegrounds in Minas Gerais and São Paulo seem to be shifting in Flávio’s favor. Will it be enough to win? * Evaluating the possibilities of a flip between the first and second rounds. *…
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#33: Our First Round Predictions for Brazil’s 2026 Election
Podgecaste Brazil is the show where we talk about politics, predictions, and Brazil. So in that spirit, we decided to lay out a swathe of predictions for the upcoming election, looking at everything from senate and gubernatorial race outcomes to a state-by-state breakdown at the presidential…
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#32: Campaign Pain & Champagne
As Brazil’s 2026 election campaign officially gets underway, we took some time on a tie-loosening Tuesday to discuss: * Brazil is a conservative country, but is there any polling evidence to suggest that is working in Flávio Bolsonaro’s favor? * The Partido Liberal’s struggle to form meaningful...
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#31: Trump's Tariffs Strike Back
As Brazil faces another round of tariffs from the Trump administration, we discuss: * Reflections on Brazil’s national mood during the World Cup. * To the extent one exists, what is the game plan here? * How Trump changed the definition of the word ‘tariff’ (which is the most beautiful word in…
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#30: Brazil’s Lost War on Drugs (w/ Felipe Krause)
Discussed: * Felipe’s early life as the son of a Brazilian diplomat. * Rediscovering his home country as an adult. * Passing Brazil’s toughest public-service entrance exam. * Journey to academia. * The evolution of Oxford University’s Latin American Studies Department. * Felipe’s assessment of…
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#29: Demystifying Lula (w/ Richard Lapper)
Discussed: * From Sheffield to covering the Sandinistas. * The failures of the far left against Latin America’s military dictatorships. * “Running to stand still.” * Fernando Henrique Cardoso and the Plano Real. * Socialist idealism meets capitalist pragmatism. * Brazil’s victims and…
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#28: Terror and Treason in The Tropics
Discussed: * A (very belated) recap on the Trump and Lula showdown. * Flávio Bolsonaro goes to Washington. * “It’s terror, but not that kind of terror.” * Lula’s case for national sovereignty. * Getting in the mind of the Uber driver voter. * Will Flávio achieve his father’s dream of…
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#27: How Bolsonaro Misread Brazil in 2022
Discussed: * Big Brother Brasil has a winner. * Will Flávio’s bad tweets get him disqualified from the race? * Glenn Greenwald’s takes on the Supreme Court. * Romeu Zema becomes the muppets latest showrunner. * The impossible politics of pardons Jan 8 and attempted coup plot. * The Path to the...
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#26: Why Nobody Can Truly Win Brazil
Discussed: * It’s Brazilian election boy summer! * Lula’s looksmaxxing must be stopped. * “Why are you running, bro?” * Geraldo Alckmin returns for Lula’s Veep Season 4. * Move over saudades. Sapatênis is the new untranslatable word. * Disinformation is just bad politics for the right. * A long...
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#16: Predictions - The Havana Hazard
Discussed: * Note to self: never get distracted by Iran. * A quick phone-in from an expert on the history and geography — which is an island, in case you didn’t know. * Latin American despots were looksmaxxing before it was cool. * “If they do anything to Cuba, I’m gonna be really, really mad.” *...
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BONUS: Irate on Iran
In attempt our to not talk about the events of the past 48 hours, we couldn’t help ourselves by starting a carefully thought out episode on the Brazilian election by discussing that which should not be named. Anyway, here’s our deeply uninformed take on the most complex geopolitical issue of our...
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#15: Predictions - Will Lula Drop Out?
Discussed: * Jack’s latest article, Like Our Parents (Como Nossos Pais). Read it now. * Will Gen Z shift towards Flávio in 2026? * University or Multi-Level Marketing. The choice is yours. * Thoughts on Lula’s tribute at Sapucaí. * ‘Carnaval’s just like football, innit.” * No one is safe from the...
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#14: Predictions - A Master Scandal
Discussed: * The Secret Agent, and other Oscar predictions. * Norway, Sweden, Iceland, Greenland. It’s all a block of ice. * A Ricky Gervais rant on actors and their political opinions. * A lot of necessary legal throat clearing. * The Brazilian Report’s Banco Master matrix. * Is Brazil running…
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#13: Predictions - Tarcísio the Tank Engine
Discussed: * Delcy Rodríguez is not a terrific person. * Nissan Navara Media. * Stop naming companies after random Latin words. * One too many mentions of Glenn Greenwald. * Bolsonaro heads to Papudinha. * Smart TVs vs. Cable. The great legal battle of our time. * Globo loses the linear…
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#12: Predictions: Neocon Nirvana
Discussed: * Excuse the aircon sounds. We’re in a heatwave, because, climate change, or something. * Boots on the ground is boots on the ground, but it’s not those boots on the ground, so it doesn’t count. * Glenn Greenwald, Rory Stewart, and Jeremy Corbyn join the podcast. * It’s legal; it’s not...
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#11: Predictions - The Christmas Comeback
Discussed: * Our 2025 Polymarket Wrapped. * That’s it. No more Trump mention markets. * Shocked not surprised. Surprised not shocked. * “It’s jail, but Norwegian serial killer jail.” * Why Flávio Bolsonaro is a candidate worth taking seriously. * Milicianos by Rafael Soares. * Brazil’s…
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#10: Predictions - The Kuala Lumpur Konnection
Discussed: * Trump and Lula—the meeting we’ve been waiting for. * “You were in jail? They tried to put me in jail.” * Nothing to do with Venezuela. * Little Marco takes the spotlight. * Peronismo perishes to the sweet tunes of La Renga. * Lula Makes Boring Great Again (muh-buh-guh). * The 4D…
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#09: Predictions - ¡Venezuela Libre! in 2025 (?)
Discussed: * It’s been a long hiatus, and a lot’s happened. * “Maduro doesn’t want to f**k around with the United States.” * The Fifth Column: #524 - BTW, Venezuela is a Dictatorial Commie Narcostate (w/ Thor Halvorssen) * María Corina Machado is a win for centrist dads. * The chances for a...
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#08: Predictions - Trials, Truancy, and Treasury Bonds
Discussed: * Blueanon is so much more depressing than Qanon. * In defense of Trump on Biden. * Lawfare here. Lawfare there. Lawfare everywhere. * If only Obama never had a pen and a phone. * Nothing Ever Happens—September edition. * Bolsonaro on trial (again). * ‘Is Selena Gomez Married in 2025’...
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#25: 'Apocalypse in the Tropics' - A Review
In this episode, we give our HOTTEST takes on Oscar nominee Petra Costa’s latest documentary, ‘Apocalypse in the Tropics’. Something of a sequel to her documentary ‘Edge of Democracy’, this latest film looks at the rise of Evangelical Christianity in Brazil, particularly through the lens of its...
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#07: Predictions - Peace, Presidents, and Paisans
Discussed: * Who would would win? The post-1945 liberal world order, or one curious 79-year-old boi? * Donald J. Trump is the only president to actually enjoy the job. * The stage is set for the world’s HOTTEST 80s blockbuster. * Bolsonaro on house arrest. * Lula and Trump may never speak. Does…
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#06: Predictions - Brazil and Bannon Winning Bigly
Discussed: * Tariff Day is finally here—unless you’re Brazil. * As always, our predictions were (mostly) spot on. * Can Alexandre de Moraes still use Netflix? * The politics of the talking parrot. * Jack’s definition of a Muppet—courtesy of Homer Simpson. * Javier Milei’s still holding out for…
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#05: Predictions - Brazilian Carnage
It’s here. Trump-tariff chaos looms over Brazil, and we’re ready to guide you through the storm. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com
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#04: Predictions - Mad Monday
Discussed: * Trump finally mentions Brazil—the COLDEST country on Earth. * TRADE and TARIFFS are back on the menu. * The funniest leader in human history. * No rest for the potentially primaried. * The EU says, “no more straight bananas for you.” * Did Steve Bannon end hypocrisy on the right by...
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#03: Predictions - Catastrophes and Curtis
Discussed: * The definition of a suit. * Did Trump make the right call? * Our PhDs in New York municipal politics. * Staten Island socialists. * Unsolicited advice for Democrat strategists. * Nothing to report from Brazil. * Are musical biopics the worst genre of all time? * The Social Network...
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#02: Predictions - Something Happened
Discussed: * The ‘Nothing Ever Happens’ philosophy. * Rory Stewart joins us for a quick explainer. * Did something really happen? * Dominic Cummings and the future of warfare. * The turmoil of Nate Silver’s approval ratings. * The Oval Office is just a podcast studio, bro. * Lula’s G7 gameplan. *...
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#01: Predictions - Nothing Ever Happens
Welcome to our new segment, Podegecaste Predictions! In an attempt to streamline our ramblings, we’re now splitting the show into two segments. Our main episode will become the place for more deep-dives on Brazil, while Podgecaste Predictions will be the place where we muse on a wider range of...
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#24: Rio Records (w/ Chris Pickard)
A few weeks ago, we had the pleasure of welcoming Chris Pickard to the show. He initially joined us to talk about his friendship with the legendary Ronnie Biggs (check out that episode if you haven’t yet) and his soon-to-be-released documentary “Ronnie Biggs: Run to Rio”. Fortunately for us…
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#23: Gaga, Greens, and Glenn
Discussed: * Lady Gaga’s mega show at Copacabana beach. * Should the public foot the bill? * Eduardo Paes, a California Democrat(?) * A (reluctant) take on the Australian election. * Can Brazil make 2026 boring again? * We used to have protests. Where’d they all go? * Lula, the Goldman Sachs...
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#22: Is Brazil Still Catholic?
* Ronnie Biggs (w/ Chris Pickard) recap. * The rise and fall of Big Brother Brasil. * Is Brazil still Catholic? The numbers. * Brazil’s rise of evangelical/protestant Christianity. * How did FHC get away with being agnostic? * The diversity of the Brazilian family. * Street preachers need better...
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#21: Ronnie Biggs on the Run (w/ Chris Pickard)
Chris Pickard is a self-described jack of all trades — but what trades! Who wouldn’t want to juggle launching a record store called Gringos in Ipanema, editing the legendary Brazil Herald, and becoming an authority on the Cannes Film Festival? He may be a jack of all trades, but he’s certainly...
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#20: Tariff Tantrum
Discussed: * Has the deal been arted? * Jack’s A-Level class on bonds. * David Sacks is a genius. * Haddad x Mônica Bergamo * Does black-and-white footage make you more serious? * Haddad’s PhD thesis. * Has the US ‘lost’ the gloabalization game? * Chris’s tirade on tariffs. Spoiler: they don’t...
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#19: We're So Back
After a brief hiatus, we’re back—only to find it’s well and truly over. Discussed: * You get a tariff! You get a tariff! Everybody gets a tariff! * Trump on The View vs. Trump on Ellen. * Jack’s updates from Civil War Island. * The blessings of a few weeks off podcasting. * Does Big Money work in...
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#18: Carnaval Carnage
* Feels Fake vs. Feels Real—unpacking Jack’s latest piece. * Russel Brand reads Jack’s article. * Bolsonaro vs. Tech Bros—who brings more mystique? * A case for Dominic Cummings. * Tony Soprano economics. * Tariffs are a tactic, or they make us rich. Pick one. * Rumble vs. Alexandre de Moraes. *...
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#17: Bolsonaro, Bets, and BAFTAs
* Our war with the mics continues. * Milei’s crypto blunder. * Is 60 Minutes making TV great again? * Brazil’s bot armies. * I’m Still Here on Amanpour. * Are the BAFTAs an omen for Brazil’s Oscar chances? * Jesse Singal on DOGE. * Setting the record straight on the Bolsonaro years. * Note: we...
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#16: Centrão Core
* Brazil’s battle of the stupid hats. * Ciro is GOAT’d. * Lula needs Malcolm Tucker. * The student politics comms genius. * Who are Brazil’s new overlords? * A deep dive on the Centrão. * Is the Centrão a force for good? * Thoughts on The Edge of Democracy and The Trial. * The (grammatical)…
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#15: O Golpe Tá Aí
* Podgecaste re-born. * Trump vs. Petro vs. Lula vs. Trump. * Can LatAm leaders out-deal the Donald, or does the US always win? * Brazil prepares to be tariffed. * Musings on Trump 2.0 and immigration. * A rare case for civil liberties. * Are we for or against drivers’ licenses? * Kash Patel…
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#14: Lyin' News, Lost Nuance, Late Night
* Audio’s fixed. We promised and delivered. * The Trouble with Sam Harris. * Faz o Pix. * Lula’s Globo L (clip mentioned). * Nikolas Ferreira — President in twenty-thirty-something (clip mentioned). * Haddad goes full McCarthy (clip mentioned). * What is even the point of John Oliver? * Gregório...
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#13: New Year, New Us
* Last episode with imperfect audio (we promise). * Musings on Civil War (the movie, not a prediction for 2025). * MAGA Civil War. * Elon vs. the groypers. * Tariff, it’s a beautiful word. * The tech bros and the master strategy. * Steve Bannon vs. the nerds. * Is Luigi Mangione the first…
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#12: Christmas Special 2024
Discussed: * Is the Brazilian economy so over or so back? * It’s another crisis, and of course, memes are to blame. * Does the dollar really matter? * 69% of Brazilians prefer democracy, but to what? * How Brazilians feel about the chance of another dictatorship. * Christmas boteco quiz (are you...
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#11 - Panama Lula
Discussed: * Super stable and neurologically perfect. * Few men can save democracy, and they’re all in their 80s, apparently. * What’s going on with that Quaest poll? * Pedro Menezes (friend of the show) thinks the electorate will punish Bolsonaro. We’re not so sure. * Check out his livestream...
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#10: I'm Still Here - A Review
Discussed: * The vicious novela cycle. * Central do Brasil (trailer here). * Was Fernanda Montenegro robbed of the Oscar in ‘99? * Our best Brazilian film picks (Chris’s pick & Jack’s pick). * Ramblings on “I’m Still Here”. Spoiler: we’re (kinda) fans, but ehhhhhh. * Why can’t we have just a…
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#09: Bolsonaro Indicted
While Jack lounges on a beach (irresponsibly, by the way) on an undisclosed island off the Brazilian coast, Chris picks up the mic and shares some quick solo thoughts on Bolsonaro’s indictment and the Brazilian left’s reaction. Disclaimer: he’s not feeling particularly generous. This is a public...
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BÔNUS: "A Luta pelo Fim da Escala 6x1" com Luiz Franco (Margem de Erro)
Em seu primeiro episódio em português, os Podgecaste boys falam com Luiz Franco—jornalista, Substacker e YouTuber da capital Fluminense. Sua publicação, Margem de Erro, começou como um canal de reportagens no YouTube durante as eleições de 2022, e ele atualmente publica no Substack e faz...
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#08: Going Out in a Blaze of Cope
Discussed: * Rory Stewart (no hard feelings, Rory). * Jack’s wild election night losing streak. * It’s ‘literally’ fascism, but you know, the world keeps turning. * Did hard work deliver results? * Trump and his three musketeers. * Will the Democrats ever learn? * Mandatory tallow fat is coming…
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BONUS: US Election Live Stream
As the polls close, the Podgecaste boys share their initial thoughts. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com
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#07: Why We're Broke
Discussed: * Keir Starmer’s accent. * Our dwindling Polymarket portfolio. * Centrist dads sell out the O2. * Is Trump going to win bigly? * The grifter becomes the grifted. * Are billionaires elites? * Tim Walz is actually a blue man. * Brazilian election debrief. * Why Brazilian politics needs...
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#06: Are We Coping?
Discussed: * Jack’s slipping grip on (political) reality. * Trump and the untapped demographics. * Does the election circus meaning anything at the end of the day? * Kamala loves the gavel. * Peak Obama-era cringe is back. * Predictions for Trump on Rogan. * Final predictions for the Brazilian...
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
The show where we talk about politics, predictions, and Brazil.
podgecaste.substack.com
HOSTED BY
Podgecaste
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How many episodes does Podgecaste Brazil have?
Podgecaste Brazil currently has 57 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is Podgecaste Brazil about?
The show where we talk about politics, predictions, and Brazil. podgecaste.substack.com
How often does Podgecaste Brazil release new episodes?
Podgecaste Brazil has 57 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
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Podgecaste Brazil is created and hosted by Podgecaste.
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