Recharge: Overtake Mode's Podcast

Nate and John continue to evaluate Overtake Mode’s model after the 2026 Spanish Grand Prix, Nate praises Verstappen (don’t tell Russell or Tad), John defends Hamilton’s legacy (Nate doesn’t write the episode copy), and both look forward to the rest of the F1 season. Graphics for this post available at overtakemode.net. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

Nate and John discuss Ferrari and Merecedes favoritism, how our model outperformed the bookmakers after qualifying, and Nate confesses something “special” about his love for George Russell. Then we look forward to the next race in Madrid: can Alpine continue to surprise and will Aston Martin ever have a fast car? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

Can Norris challenge Kimi Antonelli for the title? Can Albon and Sainz race for points rather than into each other? After the summer break, Zandvoort got us excited about F1 again despite what the reg-haters say. McLaren banked another win by doing something we thought they had forgotten how to do: make a brilliant strategy call. Nate talks us through the "bottom feeders" (his word, not John’s) from Aston Martin to Haas to Williams. Speaking of Williams, Vowles makes a new "appearance" in our latest recurring Recharge feature. You won't want to miss this week's pod. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

F1 took a break, but we didn’t this week. Nate and John speculate wildly on the silly season futures of Alonso, Verstappen, and Piastri (and more). They then break down how the model did during the first half of the season. And you can see a graph of that performance at overtakemode.net! Thanks again to Edward for encouraging us to graph our performance versuses the bookmakers. Recorded on 8/6/26. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

Overtake Mode's Recharge signs off before the F1 summer break with a review of the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix, where Lando Norris won from pole and Nate's model had its best weekend of the season. He beat the bookmakers both before and after qualifying. John and Nate dig into Aston Martin's genuine resurgence (Newey still has the magic), Ferrari's baffling strategy and Hamilton's latest penalty, and decode exactly why Toto Wolff calling those race engineers "Teletubby engineers" is a filthier insult than it sounds. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

Listen to our real-time reactions to the action on track, a breakdown of Nate’s live model, and get our thoughts on the Hungary 2025 GP. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

After nailing our predictions in Austria, our model had a much rougher time at Silverstone — and so did the bookmakers. But there's a receipt worth reading: once you strip out the three DNFs and Antonelli's broken-car heartbreak, our post-qualifying model actually called the finishing order more accurately than the market did. The chaos hurt everyone; the underlying read held up. We get into the ongoing challenges this new regulation era poses — to our model and to the F1 teams themselves — and look ahead to what Spa might have in store. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

We discuss the model's performance this past weekend against the bookmakers' odds — and we start entertaining ways to improve it further. We also get into all the on-track action, from Russell's victory to Verstappen's "Karen" moment when Hamilton blocked one of his passes. And then there's Cadillac… This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

This week on Recharge, we break down Lewis Hamilton's win, John and Lando Norris' shared takes on George Russell, and how the race's DNFs shook our model at the 2026 Spanish Grand Prix. We also get into the underrated role team managers play in their drivers' success. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

After a chaotic and penalty-ridden Grand Prix in the principality, Nate and John break down how the Overtake Mode model did in the face of an onslaught of penalties, safety cars, and mega upsets. Hint: we actually didn’t do so badly! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

Following the 2026 Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal, we break down the madness on track, all the DNFs, and McLaren's epic misfire. This race weekend battered our model, but the bookmakers didn't fare much better. Nate also teases our model’s Monaco predictions as we brace for another weekend without F1. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

Following the 2026 Miami Grand Prix, we break down Antonelli's win, McLaren's resurgence, our model’s performance, and Toto’s neglect of George in favor of Kimi. We also dig into the Red Bull second seat curse, Williams' mysteriously slimmed-down chassis, and John finally — finally — understands super clipping. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

After Suzuka, we discuss why the model reached its greatest accuracy yet for both our pre- and post-qualifying predictions. After John gushes over Piastri’s return to form, "Toto Wolff" even calls in to congratulate Kimi Nate on his first F1 victory. We then discuss why Verstappen continues to rank highly in our predicted finishes despite Red Bull's poor form this season, and why we expect McLaren to outperform our model's current predictions. Depending on how strong both constructors look after the 2026 Miami Grand Prix, we explain how the model should begin accounting for the new regulation realities of 2026. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

Following the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix, we discuss the challenges of modelling the grid's prevalent unreliability problems, Hamilton's return to form, Kimi Antonelli's successful campaign for his first F1 win, and why Alpine has a better handle on the Mercedes power unit than fellow customer teams McLaren and Williams. Nate also attempts to apologize for underestimating Hamilton — even while paying homage to Volde-stappen.recharge-chinese-gp-2026-f1-predictions This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

Our F1 prediction model called 2 of 3 podium finishers in Australia — and it painted a relatively accurate picture of where the other 19 drivers finished. We break down Mercedes' dominance, Ferrari’s resurgence, and what the data got right and wrong. Plus: Piastri's costly crash, Nate scolds John for insufficient Russell reverence, and a preview of what our model sees coming in China.recharge-australia-gp-2026-f1-predictions This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

The wait is over. The new cars finally race this weekend, and we’re dropping our predictions. Listen to the latest episode of Recharge for our thoughts on testing, our model’s top ten drivers, and what might break our forecast. Stay tuned for our complete list of race weekend predictions on Thursday and a post-quali slate of predictions before the Grand Prix! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

As the first week of official testing came to a close, we sat down to discuss where the model currently stands for the first episode of our mini-podcast. What are our predictions? What will we be looking for this season? Tune in to find out!We’re still perfecting our audio quality, and we also mention a few F1 personalities that may not be familiar to the new or casual F1 fan. See below for a short dramatis personae . . .Adrian Newey: Featured in our “Kingdoms of Speed” series, he’s arguably the best car designer to ever walk the grid. He recently departed Red Bull for Aston Martin where he now serves as team principal.Hannah Schmitz: A former high school water polo player and graduate of Cambridge University, which has produced some of the sport’s best engineers, she sits on Red Bull’s pitwall in her capacity as their Principal Strategy Engineer. She often makes some of the best strategy calls.Gianpiero “GP” Lambiase: He has long served as Max Verstappen’s righthand man as his race engineer, and he recently became Red Bull’s Head of Racing.“Bono”—Peter Bonnington: He worked with Lewis Hamilton as his race engineer at Mercedes when the latter won six of his seven World Driver’s Championships. To everyone’s surprise, he remained at Mercedes instead of following Hamilton to Ferrari. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com

Subscribe Now This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit overtakemode.substack.com