Subtext by Zerodha

Brad W. Setser, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the most respected voices on global capital flows, joins us for a wide-ranging conversation on what is driving the dollar today, why China's export boom is a problem for the whole world, and what happens if the AI bubble bursts. Timestamp:  0:00 – Introduction 2:38 – History of Dollar Strength & What Drives It 5:26 – AI & Private Capital Flows into the US 9:08 – Strait of Hormuz Crisis & Oil Markets 12:49 – UAE Leaving OPEC: What It Signals 15:21 – Why Surplus Countries (China, Korea, Taiwan) Keep Buying Dollars 19:23 – Origins of Export-Led Growth: Asia's Dollar Accumulation 27:38 – What Should China Do to Fix Its Imbalances? 34:24 – Is Export-Led Growth Still Viable? 39:31 – Deglobalization: Is It Actually Happening? 45:45 – Trump-Xi Summit: Who Has the Leverage? 48:44 – Trump's Industrial Policy vs. Biden's CHIPS Act 52:42 – Brad's Experience Translating Research into Policy 56:07 – How Countries Creatively Reroute Trade & Hide Capital Flows

In this episode of Subtext, we sit down with Zohra Khan, CEO & Founder of IPEC India - a power electronics company building EV chargers for the Indian market. We cover: How EV chargers actually work and why they need to be customised for each vehicle brand Why India's power grid is both a challenge and an opportunity for EV adoption The push to standardise charging connectors and protocols for two-wheelers (Think EV version of USB-C) Why German and Chinese chargers often fail in Indian conditions - and how IPEC builds for that The semiconductor supply chain problem and India's path to self-reliance What's coming in FY2027: bidirectional charging, 2x growth, and new product launches A deep dive into the infrastructure powering India's EV revolution. Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/zohra-khan-889a8a14a/ Time Stamps: 0:00 – Introduction to IPEC & Zohra's Background 2:46 – How EV Chargers Work & What Differs Across OEMs 5:34 – Bottlenecks for EV End Consumers (Home vs Public Charging) 9:29 – Charging Protocols & Standardisation (CCS2, OCPP, OCPI) 11:49 – The LEAF Consortium & Two-Wheeler Standardisation Efforts 14:36 – AI & Innovation in EV Charging (Miniaturisation, Bidirectional Charging) 22:11 – Indian Power Grid & DISCOM Challenges 27:54 – Single Phase vs Three Phase for Home EV Charging 31:00 – Transformer Bottlenecks & Dynamic Load Management 34:03 – Why Indian-Made Chargers Outperform Foreign Ones 43:39 – Supply Chain & Localisation: What's Hard to Make in India 57:28 – Risk of OEM Backward Integration 63:23 – IPEC's Vision & What's Ahead for FY2027

0:00 Introduction 2:10 History of Copper Rallies (Last 25 Years) 2:22 China Industrialization Demand Shock (2000–2007) 4:48 Current Cycle: AI, EVs & Electrification 5:50 Falling Ore Grades — The Structural Supply Problem 7:14 Why Supply Takes So Long to Catch Up (5–15 Years) 13:48 Who Profits Most When Copper Prices Rise? 22:03 Global Mining Consolidation (Glencore, Rio Tinto, BHP) 25:11 Environmental Constraints on Copper Mining 27:33 CBAM & the Green Copper Future 30:19 India's Listed Copper Companies 32:47 How to Play the Copper Theme (Portfolio Strategy) 37:41 Sterlite Shutdown & India Becoming a Net Importer 42:44 Adani's Copper Plant Timeline (2029–2031) 46:01 India's Long-Term Mining Strategy

📄 Read the Bain India VC Report 2026 to dig into the data behind this conversation - India Venture Capital Report 2026 | Bain & Company  0:00 Introduction 3:55 About the Bain VC Report 6:08 How the Data Is Sourced 11:16 Who Funds Indian VC — Global vs Domestic LPs 13:00 Why Family Offices Are Betting on VC 15:03 The 2020–22 Vintage Problem 20:48 How the VC Ecosystem Has Matured Since 2021 27:49 VC vs Family Office — What Founders Should Know 34:37 What Goes Wrong in Founder-Investor Relationships 40:12 Best Sectors to Build in for the Next 10 Years 46:25 What India's Startup Ecosystem Is Missing 57:24 Is Entrepreneurship Spreading Beyond Top Cities? 1:00:26 2025's Surprise: VC Grew While Broader PE Cooled 1:01:46 Is Global Macro Affecting Indian VC? 1:05:08 Where Private Valuations Are Correcting 1:06:46 Quick Commerce & Shifting Consumer Behaviour 1:08:44 VCs Betting on Physical Businesses 1:20:18 AI's Impact on Software & Enterprise 1:23:14 Will AI Replace or Assist? A Measured Take 1:25:38 Bain vs Bain Capital — Are They the Same?

In this episode we explore: How Trump's tariffs reshaped the global order — and why every major economy (except China) surrendered The Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and what it means for India's ongoing US trade deal negotiations Section 301 investigations: naked bullying or legitimate trade pressure? India's energy sovereignty dilemma — should we have continued buying Russian oil? Why India's trade agreements are peripheral — and what actually drives export competitiveness The product gap: why India excels at assembly but falls short on deep manufacturing China's $110B+ trade surplus with India — a problem of low exports, not high imports WTO's slow death and the shift toward coalition-based trade rules What India must do: reverse engineering, anchor firms, and plug-and-play industrial clusters This conversation spans India's trade history from the pre-liberalisation era to today — and makes the case that trade deals are the periphery; the real battle is product development and industrial depth. Chapters: 0:00 – Intro & teaser highlights 0:48 – The fracturing of the rules-based trade order 1:56 – Guest intro: Ajit Singh (GTRI) 3:16 – Trump's biggest contribution to trade literacy 4:32 – Why every major economy surrendered to Trump 6:45 – India's strategy in a fragmented world 9:23 – Recap: One year of Trump tariffs 15:42 – India's sovereignty dilemma: Russian oil & the US trade deal 20:32 – India's FTAs: 23 agreements and what they actually achieve 28:20 – Trade deals are peripheral — product quality is what matters 37:05 – India–China trade: $110B deficit explained 40:48 – What India must prioritise to become competitive 45:38 – The WTO: history, decline, and uncertain future 52:46 – Inside a trade negotiation: what really happens in the room

In this episode we explore:  The real role of education — human capital investment vs. social signalling Why India's graduate unemployment rate has been stuck at 35–40% since 1983 The "waiting vs. fallback" dilemma — is queuing for a job better or worse than underemployment? Internal migration patterns and how states are balancing labour surpluses Caste, gender, and identity in the Indian labour market MSMEs vs. large corporations — what India actually needs for job creation Are we running out of time to cash in on the demographic dividend by 2030? The State of Working India Report is in its 5th edition, and this conversation covers the lifecycle of a young Indian worker — from higher education choices all the way through to employment outcomes.   0:00 Introduction & Guest Overview 3:27 About the State of Working India Report 4:23 The Youth Lifecycle Approach 6:43 Education: Human Capital vs. Social Signalling 16:50 Is Graduate Unemployment a Crisis or a Feature? 19:44 Queuing vs. Fallback: What's Better for India? 24:27 Migration Patterns and Labour Mobility 28:09 Caste, Identity & Occupational Mobility 31:59 Demand Side: MSMEs vs. Large Corporates 35:36 Are We Getting Better? The Demographic Dividend Question

What makes China's manufacturing machine so powerful — and what does it mean for the rest of the world? In this episode, we sit down with Kyle Chan — fellow at the Brookings Institution's China Centre, Princeton PhD, and author of the newsletter High Capacity — for a deep dive into China's industrial strategy. We cover: - How Chinese entrepreneurs operate within the state system - The rise of BYD, Huawei, and China's "overtake on the curve" strategy - The evolution debate and China's excess capacity problem - Why the Strait of Hormuz crisis is a massive tailwind for Chinese EVs - China's five-year plan and the race to dominate future industries - What India can learn — and take advantage of — from China's playbook - A conversation packed with insight on geopolitics, clean tech, and the future of global manufacturing. Timestamp:  0:00 - Introduction & Guest Welcome 0:30 - Entrepreneurship Culture in China: Hero Stories & What Gets Rewarded 3:10 - Huawei & BYD: Go-to-Market Strategies (Wolf Pack, Underdog Approach) 6:24 - How Chinese Firms Expand Globally & Adapt to Local Markets 11:02 - Chinese Industrial Maximalism: Should China Keep Its Manufacturing Base? 16:10 - China's 5-Year Plan & the Future Industries Inflection Point 20:19 - Involution, Overcapacity & the Price War Dilemma 22:44 - How Chinese Firms Are Responding to Overcapacity 24:30 - BYD's Global Expansion & the Strait of Hormuz Effect 25:26 - Lessons from the 1970s Oil Shocks & Chinese EVs Today 26:51 - "Chinese EVs Will Be Strong But Won't Dominate" — Has That Changed? 29:36 - China's FDI Strategy & the Auto Industry Story 34:49 - FDI-Led Development: Does It Still Work? 38:40 - India-China Knowhow Transfer: Geopolitics vs. Economics 40:51 - Outro  

We used to live in a world of rules. Now, we live in a world of power. Pranav Agarwal and Pranay Kotasthane break down the "Matsya Nyaya" of modern geopolitics. We cover the weaponisation of critical minerals, the shifting influence of the US and China, and the strategic path India must take to thrive in an uncertain future.   Key topics: Geopolitics, Rare Earths, India’s Foreign Policy, and the Future of Trade.   Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:05 Guest Introduction & Welcome 3:02 World Order, Power & Legitimacy 14:09 Critical Minerals & Geopolitics 15:16 Two Frameworks: Resource Leverage & Prices 28:03 China's Rare Earth Leverage (and the 2028 Prediction) 38:33 India's Critical Minerals Strategy 54:33 India's Manufacturing Challenge 1:04:25 AI & India's Opportunity 1:07:01 Technological Sovereignty 1:12:35 Bangalore & Urban Governance 1:22:32 Thinking Across Disciplines 1:27:02 Information Diet & How Pranay Thinks

Is India losing its competitive edge in labor-intensive industries? While big names like Foxconn, Kia, and Apple are setting up shop, the "spillover effect" that transforms a local economy often remains missing. In this episode, Pranav Manie sits down with Professor Aradhana, one of India’s foremost experts on Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and industrial policy. They explore why many industrial zones become isolated "enclaves" rather than engines of national growth, and what India can learn from the success stories of China, Taiwan, and South Korea. Key Topics Discussed: The "Dutch Disease": Has India’s service sector growth accidentally hampered our manufacturing potential? Linkages & Spillovers: Understanding backward linkages (local suppliers), forward linkages (domestic sales), and technology transfer. The Enclave Problem: Why SEZs often fail to integrate with the domestic mainland and how policy barriers (like foreign exchange requirements) get in the way. OEM vs. OBM: The difficult transition from being an "Original Equipment Manufacturer" to an "Original Brand Manufacturer"—and why R&D is the missing ingredient. Global Case Studies: Comparing the FDI-reliant models of Southeast Asia (Thailand, Malaysia) with the innovation-led models of Northeast Asia. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 0:43 Why SEZs Matter for India 2:19 What Are Backward Linkages? 3:05 Beyond Backward Linkages – All the Ways SEZs Connect to Economies 6:12 Why SEZ Linkages Fail: Scale & Structural Problems 6:53 Policy Barriers Blocking SEZ Integration 7:51 Domestic Sales Restrictions & Forward Linkage Failures 8:21 The Biggest Problem: Domestic Firms Not Ready to Supply SEZs 9:08 MNC Governance as a Barrier to Linkages 9:58 How Countries Are Now Fixing These Barriers 11:06 Malaysia's Joint Ownership Approach 11:19 China's Hainan Freeport – Domestic Sales Without Duty 12:19 India's Problem With Domestic Sales & FX Restrictions 13:29 SEZ-Specific Factors: Why Larger, Open SEZs Work Better 14:28 What's the Incentive for MNCs to Share Knowledge? 15:25 How Policy Can Align MNC Incentives 17:07 Taiwan's SME Development Alongside SEZs 17:48 Malaysia's Penang – Deliberate Capability Building 18:27 Why Markets Alone Can't Create Linkages 19:30 Case Study: Bangladesh – Facilitation Without Capability Building 20:11 Case Study: Sri Lanka's Brandix & the Martin Trust Story 22:48 India's SEZ Success: The Jewellery Sector Story 24:08 SEZs as Enclave vs. Transformative Tool 24:24 China's Model: Technology Sharing + Domestic Innovation Zones 25:22 Rise of Domestic Entrepreneurs as a Signal of SEZ Success 26:20 Why Thailand & Mexico Never Produced Global Brands 27:38 Southeast Asia's FDI Dependency Problem 28:38 Northeast Asia vs. Southeast Asia: The R&D Gap 29:04 Production Capability vs. Technological Capability 29:28 The OEM-to-OBM Shift – How Countries Build Their Own Brands 30:21 China, Taiwan & South Korea's Contrasting SEZ Approaches 30:39 Taiwan's Complementary SEZ Strategy Explained 31:38 South Korea's Dual Economy: Free Zones + Heavy Industrialisation 37:05 Taiwan vs. South Korea – Two Different Strategies 37:10 From Taiwan/South Korea to India: The Electronics PLI 40:45 India's PLI – Intentions vs. Implementation Gaps 42:45 India's Export Slowdown After 2011 – Textiles Deep Dive 44:08 India's Rising Wages & Loss of Labour Cost Advantage 45:04 Dutch Disease: How Service Growth Hurt Manufacturing 48:21 India's Historical Bias Toward Skill-Intensive Industries 49:13 AI & High-Tech Assembly as India's Realistic Path Forward 49:57 Is Foxconn-Style Electronics the Way Forward? 50:31 Dixon, Tata & the Rise of Domestic Electronics Entrepreneurs 53:17 Geopolitics & India's Electronics Ambitions 53:49 China+1 Strategy: Is India Capturing the Opportunity? 56:47 India's New Wave of Free Trade Agreements 57:12 Why FTAs Alone Won't Work Without Domestic Capabilities 58:38 Value Chain Approach to Industrialisation 1:00:19 The Global Clash of Industrial Policies 1:00:43 Deindustrialisation Despite Industrial Policy Efforts 1:01:12 "Servicification" of Manufacturing – India's Edge 1:02:54 Implementation Is the Hard Part – India's Recurring Challenge 1:04:35 Closing Thoughts

AI agents are reshaping the global IT industry and no one feels it more than Indian IT. In this conversation, Pranav Manie sits down with Ameya Pimpalgaonkar, a 20-year veteran of the IT industry (IBM, Accenture, Infosys) turned investor, to break down what's actually happening beneath the surface. We covered Why the shift from headcount-based to outcome-based pricing is real but slower than the hype suggests How Indian IT's pyramid org structure creates deep inertia in the age of AI agents The emerging opportunity in data labelling, annotation, and domain-specific LLM fine-tuning What deals like Infosys-Anthropic actually signal (and what they don't) Why domain specialisation, not scale, will define the next wave of Indian IT Digital sovereignty, AI governance, and why trust is the new moat in enterprise sales A nuanced, grounded take on one of the most debated topics in tech and investing today.   Checkout Ameya P's handle here: https://x.com/Finstor85   Timestamps - 0:00 Introduction & thesis: AI agents threatening Indian IT's business model 0:38 Guest intro: Ameya Pimpalgaonkar (IBM, Accenture, Infosys, CTO/co-founder) 1:18 What moat do India's Big 4 IT firms have in AI-driven revenue lines? 1:49 Headcount-to-outcome pricing: the shift is real but subtle 6:09 Why the Transition Will Be Slow 9:02 New Revenue Lines: AI Infrastructure (TCS Approach) 9:37 New Revenue Lines: LLM Era & The SLI Parallel 12:58 Data Labelling & Reinforcement Learning as Revenue 19:23 Pyramid vs Diamond Org Structure 22:16 Org Structure Inertia & AI Adoption Challenges 24:21 Do Infosys–Anthropic / HCL–OpenAI Deals Matter? 30:00 How AI Changes Client Relationships & GTM 30:16 Reality of Enterprise Sales & Demo Culture 35:21 Where AI Speeds Up GTM (Proposals, Legal) 39:05 AI & Digital Sovereignty (Question) 39:28 Where AI & Sovereignty Gel vs Collide 42:01 India's Tech Optimism & Startup Ecosystem 43:24 Old Money → New Money: India's Capital Transition 46:50 Domain Specialisation as a Moat 47:24 Why Domain Data Is India's Biggest AI Advantage 49:39 Outro

Nishit and Ankush from Phillip Capital have spent years working with NRI and global investors navigating India's financial ecosystem — and they are two of the clearest voices explaining why Gift City is changing everything. Gift City sits in a 34-kilometre stretch between Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar — technically in India, but operating as an offshore jurisdiction. NRI onboarding, which used to take 30 to 45 days, now happens in two. Funds that would cost a fortune to set up in Singapore or Mauritius are being built here at a fraction of the price. And yet, most retail investors still think it's just a tax haven — which it isn't. We sat down with Nishit and Ankush to explain what Gift City actually is and why it matters now. We spoke about why India needed its own offshore financial hub in the first place, how Gift City compares to Mauritius and Singapore as a gateway for global capital, what the onboarding nightmare for NRIs looked like before and why it's now largely gone, how the unified regulator IFSCA differs from SEBI and RBI and why that matters, what feeder funds are and how they give even smaller investors access to global equities, why the tax-free label is a myth and what the actual tax picture looks like, and what to actually watch if you want to track how Gift City grows from here — hint: it's not the headline NRI inflow number.   Phillip Capital - https://m.phillipcapital.in/ Nishit Shah - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nishit-shah-a0591315/ Ankush Datar - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ankush-datar-b00233126/   Timestamps - 0:00 – Introduction & What is Gift City? 1:02 – About Phillip Capital & Speakers 2:31 – Why Does Gift City Exist? (Origin & Problem It Solves) 4:10 – Gift City vs. Mauritius/Singapore Offshore Jurisdictions 5:57 – Why India Needed an Offshore Financial Hub 8:37 – Hassle of Investing Directly in India (FPIs, NRIs) 10:42 – How Gift City Simplifies NRI Onboarding 12:09 – Gift City's Regulator (IFSCA) vs. SEBI/RBI 15:01 – Cost Advantages of Gift City 16:05 – Summary: India Taking Control of the Capital Gateway 18:47 – Money Going Out: Global Investing Options Before Gift City 21:54 – Feeder Funds via Gift City for Global Exposure 23:37 – How Feeder Funds Differ from Indian MF/FOF Structures 25:00 – Operations: Fund Manager Perspective in Gift City 27:23 – Money Coming In: Key Players in Gift City 30:01 – Tax Structure: The Truth About Gift City & Taxes 32:17 – NRI Direct India Investment vs. Gift City Fund Route (Tax Example) 34:05 – Dollar Reporting Advantage for NRI Investors 35:55 – Should a Retail Investor Care About Gift City? 37:08 – 3 Reasons to Invest Globally via Gift City 39:07 – Common Misconceptions About Gift City 42:09 – Why Gift City is Safer Than Mauritius/Dubai Routes 45:17 – Tax Havens Explained & How They Compare to Gift City 47:37 – Closing Remarks

Deepak Shenoy of Capital Mind joins us to explain what has been happening with the rupee over the past few weeks. Some of it is straightforward — India imports a lot of oil, oil is now significantly more expensive, and that means we need a lot more dollars than before. But there has been a more technical layer to the story involving something called the NDF market, which most people haven't heard of, and that is what this conversation is really about. We spoke about how India's forex market is structured and who the players are, how the RBI manages the rupee, what the NDF market is and why it matters, how Indian banks built up billions of dollars in arbitrage positions that were quietly pushing the rupee down, how the RBI caught on and tried to shut it down, and why Deepak thinks the only real fix is something far more fundamental than anything the RBI can do on its own. LinkedIn: https://in.linkedin.com/in/deepakshenoy Twitter: https://x.com/deepakshenoy

Rory Johnston runs Commodity Context and has spent years tracking the oil market — and he is someone who, by his own admission, is normally the calm one in the room. The fact that he is genuinely alarmed right now tells you something. Since February 28th, the Strait of Hormuz — a 34-kilometre stretch of water that carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply — has been closed. Asian governments are in panic mode. Flights are being cancelled because jet fuel is running short. India is already feeling the squeeze, particularly on LPG. And yet, financial markets haven't fully caught up with what the physical world is already experiencing. We got Rory on a call to explain what is actually happening and where this goes from here. We spoke about why this is the largest oil supply shock in history, why Brent crude should already be significantly higher than it is and what is holding it back, what the "air pocket" moving through global supply chains means for when the pain fully arrives in Western markets, why Russia has emerged as the single largest winner of this crisis, what OPEC can and can't do, and what to actually watch if you want to track how this ends — hint: it's not the headline oil price. Twitter: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Commodity Context: https://www.commoditycontext.com/

Most commentary on China operates at a surface level. Xi Jinping is authoritarian, the economy is state-directed, and the Communist Party controls everything. That's all true, but it doesn't actually help you understand why specific things happen the way they do. Manoj Kewalramani is one of the few Indian analysts who can go deeper than that. He's a China Studies research fellow at the Takshashila Institution, speaks Mandarin, and spent years living in China. In this conversation, we try to understand the country as it actually is, not as the headlines describe it. We get into some genuinely interesting territory. On zero-COVID, Manoj explains why the policy became so brutal, not because Xi Jinping was being irrational, but because local officials were responding entirely rationally to a set of incentives from the centre. On China's economy, he makes the case that the overcapacity everyone criticises isn't a flaw in the system. It's how the system is designed to work. On India's favourite lesson from China, that the state should guide industry, he argues that Indian policymakers have actually got it backwards. We also talk about the recent military purges, why success itself can make you a target in a system built around one person's power, and whether China is genuinely becoming more communist under Xi or whether that's just a label people throw around. The honest answer to that last question, Manoj argues, is yes. China today is more Leninist than it was fifteen years ago. But it's also more adaptable than most people give it credit for. More about Manoj: https://school.takshashila.org.in/faculty/manoj-kewalramani https://www.linkedin.com/in/manojkewalramani/