The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus

What happens when a senior KGB officer walks into the British embassy in revolutionary Iran and offers to spy for MI6?Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/DrMarcelDirsusRedwood: The Untold Story of the Cold War's Most Extraordinary Spy is out now.Buy Redwood: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/458783/redwood-by-macintyre-ben/9780241754801

Is Vladimir Putin running out of options in Ukraine—and could desperation push Russia into war with NATO?Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/DrMarcelDirsusIn this episode of The Next Best, host Marcel Dirsus sits down with military analyst and author Anders Puck Nielsen (The Logic of War) to analyze the evolving dynamics of the war in Ukraine. They discuss how technological shifts like the "drone wall" have eliminated tactical surprise, the limits of Russia's war economy, the impact of long-range strikes, and why a desperate Kremlin might test NATO’s Article 5 as a last resort.Check out Anders Puck Nielsen’s YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@anderspuckBuy Anders' Book: https://www.logicofwar.com/the-book/

There is no "magic button" in war.From naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz to precision air strikes and economic sanctions, military planners constantly search for a magic button — a way to achieve decisive political victory without mass casualties or drawn-out ground conflicts. But history shows that shortcuts in warfare rarely deliver on their promises. In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus speaks with Samuël Kruizinga, a historian at the University of Amsterdam who specializes in the history of wars, blockades, and sanctions. They explore why quick-fix strategic thinking consistently fails—examining US actions against Iran, naval scenarios around Taiwan, and lessons from World War I and World War II—before arriving at a sobering conclusion: when trying to affect political change through military force, there is no substitute for boots on the ground.

How do elite Russian spies operate? How are they recruited and trained, and what makes the life of these "Illegals" so miserable?Support the podcast on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/cw/DrMarcelDirsus In this episode of The Next Best, host Marcel Dirsus sits down with Shaun Walker, foreign correspondent for The Guardian and author of "The Illegals". They dive deep into the brutal psychological reality, extreme recruitment methods, and history of Russia’s deep-cover intelligence network—from the Soviet era to Putin’s modern-day spy ring. They also discuss the sacrifices made by spy families, the recent DHL parcel plots and sabotage ops in Europe, and how Western intelligence successfully uncovered Putin’s invasion plans for Ukraine. Get Shaun Walker’s book "The Illegals": https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/671708/the-illegals-by-shaun-walker/ Read Shaun's Guardian Article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus offers deep dives into geopolitics and international relations. We provide serious political commentary on foreign policy challenges, modern warfare, and global security.

What happens when billionaires buy democracy?In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus speaks with author and investigative journalist Casey Michel about the rise of America’s oligarchs — and how enormous private fortunes are reshaping American politics, government and foreign policy.Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DrMarcelDirsusBuy Casey's book: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250430120/unitedstatesofoligarchy/They discuss Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and the billionaire class surrounding the Trump administration; how campaign-finance rules collapsed; the impact of Citizens United; and why American politics has increasingly become a pay-to-play system.Casey also explains how today’s oligarchy compares with America’s Gilded Age, what Teddy Roosevelt can teach us about fighting concentrated wealth, how corruption and self-enrichment are affecting US foreign policy, and why a backlash against America’s billionaire class may be coming.

What would actually happen if nuclear war broke out?Nuclear weapons expert Frank Sauer explains, step by step, how a nuclear war could begin, how world leaders would make life-or-death decisions in minutes, and what the consequences would be for humanity.Subscribe to Frank's podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@sicherheitspodWe discuss:- How a nuclear war between Russia and NATO could realistically start- The difference between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons- How launch decisions are made by world leaders- Whether the US or Europe could shoot down incoming nuclear missiles- Why nuclear deterrence has worked—and why it could still fail- The Cuban Missile Crisis and the closest humanity has come to nuclear war- Nuclear winter and whether it could end human civilization- Why Frank believes nuclear weapons remain the greatest existential threat facing humanityThis is one of the most detailed conversations you'll hear on how nuclear strategy actually works, why accidents are a real concern, and what keeps experts awake at night.If you enjoy in-depth conversations on geopolitics, international security, AI, history, and the future of humanity, make sure to subscribe and turn on notifications.

Why did the United States lose the war in Afghanistan? Why did the Taliban ultimately return to power? And what lessons should policymakers take from America's longest war?In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus sits down with Carter Malkasian — former adviser to the U.S. military and author of The American War in Afghanistan—to explore the origins of the Taliban, the failures of nation-building, the 2021 withdrawal, and the enduring lessons of the conflict.

How does Kim Jong Un stay in power?In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus speaks with journalist Anna Fifield, former Washington Post Beijing bureau chief and author of The Great Successor, about the inner workings of North Korea's dictatorship.They discuss Kim Jong Un's rise to power, the assassination of his half-brother, North Korea's relationship with Russia and China, the regime's nuclear ambitions, propaganda, life inside the world's most secretive state, and whether the Kim dynasty can survive another generation.Buy Anna's book: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/anna-fifield/the-great-successor/9781541742499/?lens=publicaffairsSubscribe to Anna's newsletter: https://annafifieldnz.substack.com

How much do ordinary Russians really support the war in Ukraine? Can Ukraine's drone strikes change the course of the conflict? And what happens after Vladimir Putin?In this episode of The Next Best, I sit down with Dr Jade McGlynn, one of the world's leading experts on Russia. A research Fellow at King's College London and the author of Russia's War, Jade explains why the Kremlin's propaganda is so effective, what Russians actually think about the war, and why Putin's invasion is about far more than territory.Buy Russia's War: https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=russias-war--9781509556755Buy Memory Makers: https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/memory-makers-9781350522220/

Historian Margaret MacMillan explains why Trump's foreign policy is unprecedented, what Putin wants, and whether the liberal international order is coming to an end.What happens when the world's most powerful democracy begins turning away from its closest allies?In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus sits down with renowned historian Margaret MacMillan to discuss Donald Trump's foreign policy, Vladimir Putin's ambitions, Xi Jinping's legacy, the future of NATO, the war in Ukraine, and the future of the international order.

Germany is spending more on defence than at any point in recent history — and some analysts believe it could soon become Europe’s dominant military power.But what happens if Germany rearms in a world where Europe can no longer fully rely on the United States?Read the essay here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/europes-next-hegemon-liana-fix

What keeps Iran’s regime in power—and why has it survived repeated crises, protests, and international pressure? In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus sits down with Yeganeh Torbati (New York Times Iran correspondent) and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin (Iran International) for a deep dive into how Iran’s political system actually works. We discuss the 1979 Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini’s rise, the Supreme Leader’s power, the Revolutionary Guards’ influence, reform movements, protests, war, succession politics, and what might come next for Iran. If you want to understand the structure behind one of the world’s most consequential political systems, this conversation is for you.📚 Stolen Revolution: Betrayal and Hope in Modern IranBuy the book: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/457807/stolen-revolution-by-torbati-bozorgmehr-sharafedin-and-yeganeh/9780241744017

Most countries are not superpowers. They’re not regional hegemons. They’re small states trying to survive in a world dominated by giants.In this episode, I speak with Anders Wivel, Professor of Political Science at the University of Copenhagen, about why small states survive, how they trade autonomy for security, why they still maintain militaries, and what happens to them as the international order changes.We discuss countries like Qatar, Israel, Singapore, Denmark, Germany, and what small states can teach all of us in an era shaped by the United States and China.If you enjoy conversations on geopolitics, international relations, and power politics, subscribe for more.

The Houthis aren't Iran's puppet. That's what makes them so dangerous. They can shut down two of the world's most critical chokepoints simultaneously — and there's very little the West can do about it.In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus sits down with Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa and one of the world's leading experts on Middle Eastern security, to unpack the Houthis, Iran, and the future of the Red Sea.

Everyone thinks Putin perfected the energy weapon. But Russia has been using oil and gas as a political bludgeon for over 70 years — and it didn't start with him. Historian Sergey Radchenko traces the full arc of Russian energy coercion, from Stalin's colonial resource extraction in Eastern Europe to the Nord Stream bets that reshaped modern Europe — and makes the provocative case that the weapon has been failing for decades. How does a country turn oil and gas into a political weapon — and why has it kept backfiring? In this episode, I sit down with historian Sergey Radchenko, one of the world's leading experts on Soviet and post-Soviet diplomacy, to trace Russia's use of energy as an instrument of political power. The story begins not with the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but with Stalin treating Eastern Europe as a colonial resource colony in the late 1940s. It runs through Khrushchev's subsidized-energy trap, the 1973 oil shock, the Cold War pipeline battles, Yeltsin's gas wars with Ukraine, and Merkel's fateful Nord Stream bet. Radchenko makes a provocative case: Russia's energy weapon has been failing for decades — and may now be creating a dependence that runs in the opposite direction.

In this live episode recorded in Berlin, Marcel Dirsus sits down with researcher and author Julia Ebner to explore the psychology of extremism, conspiracy theories, and online radicalization. From QAnon and neo-Nazi networks to AI-driven propaganda and the gamification of hate, they unpack how fringe movements recruit followers, spread across borders, and increasingly shape mainstream politics.Julia shares insights from years spent researching extremist communities — including undercover investigations into online hate groups and radical movements — and explains why ordinary people can become drawn into dangerous ideologies.The conversation also explores:why conspiracy theories are emotionally powerful,how social media amplifies extremism,what separates trolls from violent extremists,and why modern radicalization is becoming harder to contain.Julia Ebner is the author of Going Dark, Going Mainstream, and The Rage. She is a researcher at the University of Oxford and works on extremism, terrorism, conspiracy myths, and the impact of emerging technologies on democracy.The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus offers deep dives into geopolitics and international relations. We provide serious political commentary on foreign policy challenges, modern warfare, and global security.

China doesn't need to invade Taiwan to win.A blockade could bring the global economy to its knees — without firing a single shot. In this episode of The Next Best, political scientist Marcel Dirsus sits down with Hoover Fellow Eyck Freymann to map out the most dangerous flashpoint in global politics: the China–Taiwan conflict. From a full-scale Taiwan invasion to a blockade strategy to gray zone pressure campaigns, they break down every realistic scenario — and ask the harder question: what would actually deter Xi Jinping?

Russia didn't just invade Ukraine. It's trying to break the rules of the international system.In this episode, I sit down with James Ker-Lindsay — one of the world's leading authorities on secession and self-determination — to trace exactly how the sovereign state was built, why the rules against conquest exist, and how Russia is now dismantling them one fake referendum at a time.About James Ker-Lindsay:James Ker-Lindsay is one of the world's foremost experts on secession, self-determination, and state recognition. He has advised governments and international organizations on questions of statehood and has authored more than a dozen books on conflict and international relations.

Russia says it's winning. The front line tells a different story. Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady just returned from Ukraine — here's what he actually saw. Russia is betting on spring advances in the Donbas. Ukrainian soldiers say they'll stay "till hell freezes over." So who's right — and does it even matter if nobody has a theory of victory?

Xi Jinping may be the most powerful man in the world. But that power may also be a trap he can't escape.In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus sits down with Rory Truex — Princeton professor and leading expert on Chinese politics — to unpack how Xi Jinping consolidated control over China's political system, why his grip on power may have made China more fragile, and what happens to the world if he suddenly disappears.

NATO isn't just weakening. It's basically dead — and that's not a headline. It's an analysis.In this episode, I break down exactly what killed the alliance: Donald Trump's deep, structural hostility to multilateral commitments, decades of European governments free-riding on American security guarantees, and a geopolitical reality that was already pulling U.S. attention toward China long before Trump returned to the White House.But here's what most people miss: NATO was never an automatic defense guarantee. It always ran on trust — on Putin believing the United States would risk its own cities to defend a European one. That belief is now gone. And without it, deterrence collapses.I also explain why this probably isn't just a four-year problem. The Republican Party has changed. Europe has lost trust in the United States. And America's strategic focus on China isn't going away. The result: Europe will need to plan its own security — and pay for it — without counting on Washington.That's bad for Europe. But it's also bad for America.

Trump's approval rating tells a story his supporters don't want to hear — and the data backs it up. Pollster and journalist G. Elliott Morris joins me to break down Trump's poll numbers and explain why he may be one of the most unpopular presidents in modern American history. If that's true, how does he keep winning? We cover:- Trump's approval ratings vs. past presidents- Why voters still support him despite the polls- The role of the economy in elections- Public opinion on the war with Iran- What polling data really tells us — and what it doesn'tSubscribe to Elliott's newsletter here: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus offers deep dives into geopolitics and international relations. We provide serious political commentary on foreign policy challenges, modern warfare, and global security.

Putin spent two decades demanding a multipolar world. Now he's getting one — and it might destroy Russia.In this episode of The Next Best, I speak with Seva Gunitsky, professor at the University of Toronto and author of Aftershocks, about the irony at the heart of today's geopolitical shift: the global order Putin wanted may be far worse for Russia than the one he helped dismantle.We discuss why the invasion of Ukraine may be the biggest strategic blunder of the century, how personalist dictatorships distort decision-making, and why a world dominated by leaders like Putin, Trump, and Xi Jinping could become more unstable — and more dangerous.We also examine whether Putin could survive peace, how dictators actually lose power, and why nuclear risk may be rising again.

Is Congress irrelevant in U.S. foreign policy? Is bipartisanship a myth? And what happens when the biggest threat to a NATO ally might be the United States itself?This week on The Next Best, I'm joined by Elizabeth Saunders, professor at Columbia University and author of The Insider's Game: How Elites Make War and Peace. We unpack how American foreign policy really works — not in theory, but in practice.From the slow erosion of congressional war powers after World War II to the sweeping authorities passed after the September 11 attacks. From Harry S. Truman and the myth of Cold War unity to Donald Trump threatening Greenland.This conversation cuts through nostalgia and looks at the raw politics of power.We discuss:• Why Congress keeps giving away authority — and why it can't claw it back• The structural political advantage of "hawks" over "doves"• Whether Trump has fixed foreign policy beliefs (spoiler: he does)• Why Trump and Greenland may have been a turning point for NATO• The internal camps shaping Trump's decisions — and what a President JD Vance might mean for Europe• Whether congressional Republicans would ever break with him• Will Europe's rearmament outlast Trump?One key argument: Trump isn't a "peace president." He's comfortable with force — drones, bombing, special operations — but reluctant to launch large-scale wars with U.S. casualties. That distinction matters.If you care about how war powers actually function, why sanctions are easy to impose but nearly impossible to remove, and whether Europe's rearmament will outlast Trump — this episode is for you.The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus offers deep dives into geopolitics and international relations. We provide serious political commentary on foreign policy challenges, modern warfare, and global security.🔔 Subscribe for more analysis: https://www.youtube.com/@TheNextBestPod📺 Watch our most popular video: https://youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY

Apple doesn’t just manufacture in China. It helped build the system that now holds it hostage.In this episode of The Next Best, I speak with Financial Times journalist Patrick McGee, author of Apple in China, about one of the most important – and least understood – geopolitical entanglements of our time.• How did Apple become dependent on the Chinese Communist Party?• Why can’t it simply move production elsewhere?• And what does this tell us about authoritarian leverage in a globalized world?We explore the rise of China’s manufacturing dominance, the scale of Apple’s exposure, and why decoupling may be far harder than many policymakers assume.The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus offers deep dives into geopolitics and international relations. We provide serious political commentary on foreign policy challenges, modern warfare, and global security.

How powerful is propaganda—really? In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus speaks with Gavin Wilde, a former White House official and U.S. intelligence analyst, about why we consistently overestimate the impact of fake news, disinformation, and "information warfare." From World War I and Edward Bernays to Russian hybrid warfare, social media bots, and AI-generated deepfakes, Wilde argues that propaganda is far less decisive than we like to believe.We discuss:• Why democracies struggle with persuasion and media literacy• How Russia exploits existing social fractures rather than creating them• Why calling out disinformation can sometimes backfire• Why "ignoring it" might be a more rational strategy than constant outrageThe conversation also explores AI, deepfakes, hybrid warfare, and the limits of deterrence in the information age—challenging many of today’s dominant assumptions.Timestamps:00:00 — Why ignoring propaganda might be the most rational response00:29 — Introduction: Gavin Wilde on propaganda, Russia, and hybrid warfare00:53 — What propaganda actually is (and how it differs from persuasion)01:04 — World War I, democracy, and the birth of modern propaganda03:40 — Edward Bernays, psychology, and “torches of freedom”05:10 — Propaganda as belonging, not mind control06:29 — Propaganda in democracies vs. autocracies06:50 — Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and reinforcing existing beliefs09:18 — The internet, bots, deepfakes, and how the game supposedly changed09:57 — Computing, social science, and the myth of predictable persuasion12:20 — Why propaganda and advertising oversell their own effectiveness13:50 — Russia, hybrid warfare, and election interference14:17 — Do we know Russia interferes in Western elections?15:30 — Soviet history and the roots of Russian information warfare17:32 — Opportunism vs. grand Kremlin strategy18:58 — The risks of overestimating foreign interference19:28 — Why blaming propaganda undermines democratic agency21:35 — Exploiting existing divisions & the Doppelgänger operation23:10 — When exposing disinformation backfires24:40 — Policy takeaway: why “ignore it” may be the best option25:58 — Should democracies fight back with information warfare?26:11 — Why information warfare is fundamentally autocratic27:30 — Telling a better democratic story (not just better facts)29:24 — Kinetic hybrid warfare: sabotage, terrorism, and fear31:34 — Attribution, deterrence, and why resilience matters more34:10 — Artificial intelligence, deepfakes, and the “dog that didn’t bark”36:51 — What we still get wrong about human behavior and propaganda37:54 — Closing remarksThe Next Best with Marcel Dirsus offers deep dives into geopolitics and international relations. We provide serious political commentary on foreign policy challenges, modern warfare, and global security.

Can Europe defend itself without the United States? The uncomfortable reality is that Europe’s security architecture is completely dependent on Washington—and that foundation is cracking.In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus speaks with Max Bergmann (Director at CSIS and former US diplomat) about the depth of this military dependence. They break down exactly what would have to change if Washington steps back, covering the "fatal flaws" in European defense—from procurement failures and intelligence sharing to the growing risk of a prolonged war with Russia.Topics Discussed:• The Command Problem: Why Europe lacks a unified military structure.• The NATO Paradox: How the alliance entrenched US leadership in European defense.• Industrial Failure: Why increased spending isn't translating into stockpiles.• The "Euro Eyes" Problem: Europe’s reliance on US intelligence and logistics.• Future Scenarios: What happens if there is a rupture in US–EU relations?Chapters:00:00 Intro00:30 Europe, NATO, and US security dependence01:18 Post-WWII origins of Europe’s defence model05:03 Why European militaries declined after the Cold War07:02 The real source of Europe’s military dependency09:49 US troops in Europe and rapid reaction forces13:09 Can a pan-European force work?16:49 Who decides? The political control problem19:56 Why Europe stopped thinking strategically21:50 Defence procurement and industrial fragmentation27:03 Ammunition, stockpiles, and production capacity30:32 Ukraine and the war of attrition problem33:04 Intelligence, “Euro Eyes,” and hybrid warfare37:08 US–EU relations and the risk of rupture40:04 Are European leaders responding fast enough?43:20 Final thoughtsIf you’re interested in geopolitics, European security, and how power actually works, subscribe to The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus.

Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Tim Weiner joins Marcel Dirsus to discuss his book, The Mission: The CIA in the 21st Century. This episode is a deep dive into the CIA, the failures of the War on Terror, and the future of modern warfare. Weiner traces the agency’s evolution from the Cold War through 9/11, revealing how fear drove the CIA into torture, secret prisons, and paramilitary operations that reshaped America’s moral standing. He argues that while the agency has had tactical successes—like dismantling nuclear smuggling networks and stealing Vladimir Putin’s invasion plans for Ukraine—it faces a strategic crisis. The conversation warns of a catastrophic intelligence failure fueled by Donald Trump’s rejection of intelligence, ideological purges within the national security apparatus, and China’s surveillance-driven operations.Timestamps:00:00 – Vladimir Putin’s shadow war across Europe00:20 – Introduction: Tim Weiner & The Mission00:49 – The CIA after the Cold War and before 9/1101:01 – Ignored warnings about Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden02:59 – The Bush administration’s obsession with Saddam Hussein03:29 – Iraq, neoconservatives, and the democracy delusion04:20 – How 9/11 transformed the CIA04:49 – Fear, raw intelligence, and the road to war06:36 – Torture, black sites, and “enhanced interrogation”07:17 – How the CIA justified torture09:26 – Did torture actually work?09:41 – The A.Q. Khan nuclear smuggling operation11:26 – Pakistan, the ISI, and playing both sides12:47 – The CIA’s lost focus on Russia and China13:14 – Russia, political warfare, and the 2016 election15:17 – Stealing Putin’s Ukraine invasion plans17:39 – CIA support for Ukraine before and after the invasion18:02 – Why subscribing helps the podcast18:15 – How the CIA rebuilt Ukraine’s intelligence services20:18 – Trump, Putin, and spheres of influence21:11 – Authoritarianism and the logic of force22:20 – Trump vs. intelligence agencies23:05 – Ideological purges inside the CIA25:35 – China’s intelligence services and surveillance strategy27:45 – CIA successes—and failures—against China29:04 – What CIA officers are really like31:38 – Democracy, dictatorship, and a personal warning31:49 – Closing remarksAbout The Next Best:Deep dives into geopolitics, international relations, and history with political scientist Marcel Dirsus. If you found this conversation valuable, please subscribe and leave a comment.

The Baltic region is Europe's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoint. From the Suwałki Gap to the stationing of German combat troops in Lithuania, we explore the geopolitical stakes of a potential conflict between Russia and NATO.Political scientist Marcel Dirsus speaks with Oliver Moody, Berlin correspondent for The Times, to analyze the strategic vulnerability of Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.00:00 Russia’s Hybrid War Against Europe00:31 Why the Baltic Region Is Europe’s Geopolitical Flashpoint01:00 Baltic: NATO, Russia, and Europe’s Future01:24 Baltic States History: From Empire to Independence03:07 How Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania Broke from the USSR04:40 Why the West Didn’t Support Baltic Independence in 199005:36 Why the Baltic States Chose NATO and the EU06:11 NATO Expansion and Western Fears of Provoking Russia07:22 Why Defending the Baltic States Is So Difficult09:39 What Europe Can Learn from the Baltic States10:03 Estonia’s Digital State and Economic Transformation12:14 Why Copy-Paste Policy Fails in Europe13:40 How Russia’s Ukraine War Changed Northern Europe15:47 Baltic Power and Influence Inside the European Union17:56 Poland, Power Politics, and Europe’s Strategic Limits19:57 Why Russia Didn’t Stop Finland and Sweden Joining NATO21:56 Is Europe Already in a Hybrid War with Russia?22:17 Russian Sabotage, Espionage, and Hybrid Attacks Explained23:26 Could Russia Invade Estonia? NATO’s Worst-Case Scenario23:47 Why Subscribing Helps the Podcast24:04 How a NATO–Russia War Could Begin26:05 NATO Troops in the Baltics: Tripwire or Real Deterrence?28:05 Finland’s Total Defense Model Explained29:53 Why Europe Is Unprepared for Civil Defense32:25 Germany’s Rearmament and Europe’s Historic Fears34:39 What US Politics Mean for Europe’s Security36:30 Could NATO Collapse Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?37:38 If America Leaves Europe: Unity or Fragmentation?39:32 Why the Baltic Region Shapes Europe’s Future41:08 Understanding Russia Through an Exiled Russian Writer42:51 OutroIn this episode:• The strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap• Why Germany is deploying a combat brigade to Lithuania• Hybrid Warfare & Grey Zone Tactics: How Russia destabilizes the region• The reality of the Russian threat to the Baltic states• NATO's defense strategy in Northeastern Europe• Historical context: The Soviet occupation and its legacy• What we can learn from Poland, Finland and EstoniaAbout the Guest: Oliver Moody is the Berlin correspondent for The Times, covering German and Northern European politics. His reporting often focuses on security policy and the shifting geopolitical landscape in Europe.Subscribe for more serious conversations on geopolitics & history.My guestBook: https://www.johnmurraypress.co.uk/titles/oliver-moody/baltic/9781399814270/Twitter: https://x.com/olivernmoodyMeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

How the U.S. turned banks, the dollar, and tech supply chains into a weapon that isolates entire countries without firing a shot.Edward Fishman is the author of "Chokepoints" and a former member of the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff. We discuss how the US transformed the global financial system into a weapon, the history of economic statecraft from naval blockades to smart sanctions, and the invisible infrastructure of the US dollar. We also cover the origins of the Iran sanctions campaign, how secondary sanctions force allies to comply, and whether the overuse of these tools threatens the dollar's future dominance. Lastly, we discuss US attempts to wage economic warfare against China and what America may do if Beijing decides to invade Taiwan. 00:00 Intro: Threatening shipping companies01:23 From naval blockades to smart sanctions03:35 How globalization created "Chokepoints"06:20 The Invisible Infrastructure (How the Dollar actually works)10:04 Weaponized Interdependence13:26 The Iran Model: Stuart Levy & the Treasury's realization18:26 Why European banks obey US law (Secondary Sanctions)21:19 Deterrence vs. rollback: what sanctions achieved in Iran24:27 The bipartisan “sanctions work” lesson—and overreach risks24:43 The sanctions‑relief paradox after the JCPOA25:06 Why firms refused to re‑enter Iran despite relief25:11 Business risk calculus and U.S. policy volatility25:14 Polarization and foreign‑policy credibility28:39 Russia: why objectives changed after 2014 and 202229:15 2014—Crimea, Donbas, Minsk, and deterrence limits35:06 The “catastrophic success” concern35:26 2022 playbook: big banks, central bank, chips; crisis and calibration38:42 Did the 2022 economic crisis distract Russia’s leadership?39:05 China export controls: ZTE → Huawei → semiconductors41:52 Taiwan question: limits of economic deterrence42:14 Build resilience first: rare earths, batteries, chips44:05 Is globalization over?44:08 The mindset shift ending globalization’s foundation45:49 OutroGuest: Edward Fishman, Columbia UniversitySubscribe for more serious conversations on Geopolitics & History. My guestBook: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/726149/chokepoints-by-edward-fishman/Website: https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/edward-fishman/Twitter: https://x.com/edwardfishmanMeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

We're now multiple years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and an end to the fighting isn't in sight. There are now negotiations, but where could these negotiations lead? What happens if Russia wins? And why did Putin decide to invade in the first place? To answer these questions, I speak to Michael Kimmage. Michael is the director of the Kennan Institute in Washington, DC and a professor of history at the Catholic University of America. His latest book is called Collisions: The War in Ukraine and the Origins of the New Global Instability.My guestWebsite: https://www.kennaninstitute.org/kimmageTwitter: https://x.com/mkimmageMeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

My guest this week is Kori Schake. Kori has an incredibly impressive CV. She is currently the Director of Foreign and Defense Policy at the American Enterprise Institute, but she has also worked at the US Department of State, the Pentagon and the White House. She advised John McCain during his 2008 presidential campaign and she has taught at Stanford and West Point.Her latest book is called The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States. We talk about Trump, of course, but also George Washington, World War II, and the general difficulty of maintaining a powerful military that doesn't become a threat for democracy. I've admired Kori's work for many years, so I'm delighted that we had an opportunity to chat. My guestWebsite: https://www.aei.org/profile/kori-schake/BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/kschake.bsky.socialBook: https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=the-state-and-the-soldier-a-history-of-civil-military-relations-in-the-united-states--9781509570539MeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.I'll see you soon.

Earlier this year, I read a book called Death is Our Business and this week I spoke to the author John Lechner. John is an interesting man. He used to work in investment banking and then he decided to become a journalist. So he moved to Africa and started reporting on Russian mercenaries. John got kidnapped at some point, but along the way he learned quite a few languages. He speaks fluent Russian, advanced Turkish, and conversational Chechen, as well as Sango, which is the most important language in the Central African Republic. In this episode, we talk about the role of the Wagner Group in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin's march on Moscow, and the growing role of private military companies in international politics.My guestWebsite: https://www.johnlechnerauthor.comBook: https://www.johnlechnerauthor.com/death-is-our-businessTwitter: https://x.com/JohnLechner1MeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

Hey, it's Marcel Dirsus and this is The Next Best. I spoke to Charles Hecker this week. Charles has spent 40 years traveling and working in the Soviet Union and Russia. He speaks fluent Russian and he just wrote a book called Zero Sum. At first glance, the book is about international business in Russia. And it is, but it is also a lens to look at political and economic developments more generally. We spoke about the chaos of the early 1990s. Western governments pushing their companies to invest in Russia and the impact that closer engagement with Moscow had on our own societies. I enjoyed the book. I enjoyed talking to Charles and I hope you enjoy our discussion. Let's go.My guestWebsite: https://www.charleshecker.comBook: https://www.charleshecker.com/purchase-linksTwitter: https://x.com/Charles_HeckerBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/charleshecker.bsky.socialMeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

My guest this week is Steve Coll. Steve is a senior editor at The Economist and he has written nine books. He has won the Pulitzer Prize not once, but twice. His most recent book is about Saddam Hussein, the CIA and America's invasion of Iraq. It is called The Achilles Trap. 1In this episode, we talk about Saddam Hussein's childhood, chemical weapons use against Iran, and a series of miscalculations that ultimately led to war. I had lot of fun talking to Steve, and the discussion is relevant beyond America and Iraq, because misunderstanding the opposite side can still lead to tragedy. Let's go.My guestBook: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/602066/the-achilles-trap-by-steve-coll/MeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

Hey, it's Marcel Dirsus and this is The Next Best.