The Open Bell

Today on The Open Bell: US forces have now struck Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz twice since July, Iran has fired back at American bases in Jordan, and oil is above $86 a barrel, which means this isn't a distant geopolitical story anymore, it's a pump-price story. The yen is closing in on 160 to the dollar, a level that last time cost Japan tens of billions to defend, and America's own Treasury Secretary just stood up at a G20 meeting and told Japan it needs to act, which is either reassuring coordination or a very public warning, depending on which side of that trade you're on. Australian inflation just came in at 4.8%, nearly two and a half times the Reserve Bank's target, and with oil prices jumping at the same time, the RBA is now trying to thread a needle that keeps getting smaller. If today's episode helped you get your head around what's moving, a five-star rating takes about three seconds and it genuinely helps other people find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:11 US Strikes Iran Again, Sending Oil Above $86 and Stocks Lowe 03:32 Yen Nears 160 vs Dollar as Bessent Signals BOJ Will Act at G 06:03 Australia Inflation Accelerates to 4.80% in July, Complicati 07:54 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The new Fed Chair used his first Jackson Hole speech to tell the world that another rate hike is back on the table, and the September odds just jumped to 60%, which is a long way from the cuts everyone was pricing in six months ago. Gold had the best month this century in August, up roughly 14%, and then one afternoon speech from a Fed Chair erased nearly 3% of that in a matter of hours, which tells you everything about how fragile this rally actually is. Germany's retail sales just fell 1.5% in July when everyone was expecting a mild 0.4% dip, and when the biggest economy in Europe can't get its shoppers to spend, the whole eurozone growth story gets a lot harder to tell. If today's episode helped things click, a five-star rating genuinely helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:13 Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech Lifts Sept Rate-Hike Odd 03:20 Gold Tumbles 2.88% to $4,529.90 as Dollar Surges on Hawkish 05:33 German Retail Sales Slide 1.5% MoM in July, Deepening Eurozo 07:16 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The Fed is openly split heading into Jackson Hole, with at least one regional president pushing for rate hikes while the rest of the world waits for Friday morning's speech from the chair, and if you own a home, a pension, or basically anything, that speech could move it. Australia's inflation just came in hotter than anyone expected, and for the roughly one-in-three Australian homeowners on a variable-rate mortgage, "hotter than expected" is just a polite way of saying their repayments may be going up again. Nvidia had a great night and Marvell didn't, and the gap between them tells you something the AI hype cycle tends to skip: the boom has a very short list of names on it, and being in the right industry doesn't put you on it. If today's episode helped you get your head around a messy news day, a five-star rating takes about four seconds and helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:14 Cleveland Fed's Hammack Calls for Rate Hikes at Jackson Hole 03:18 Australia CPI Surges to 3.5% as Monthly Inflation Beats Fore 05:16 Marvell Technology Tumbles 7%+ After Hours on Disappointing 07:02 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The Fed's preferred inflation measure just came in hotter than expected, 3.7% year-over-year, and suddenly the question of whether the Fed raises interest rates again isn't as settled as markets thought it was last week. South Korea's central bank just hiked rates for the second month in a row, and the story isn't really about Seoul: it's a signal that the inflation fight across Asia is grinding on, and that the era of cheap borrowing isn't coming back as fast as anyone hoped. Nvidia's quarterly revenue cleared $91 billion, which is more than most countries produce in a year, and the company still told investors to expect more, which is why futures on the Nasdaq, the index heavy with tech stocks, surged roughly 1% the moment the numbers landed. If today's episode helped you make sense of what's moving and why, a five-star rating takes ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:14 US PCE Inflation Tops Forecast at 3.7%, Keeping Fed Hike Ris 03:13 Bank of Korea Raises Rates to 3.00% in Second Consecutive Hi 05:44 Nvidia Q2 Revenue Beats $91B Bar; Nasdaq Futures Surge ~1% A 07:35 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Nvidia just reported $93 billion in a single quarter, roughly 95% more than a year ago, and then told investors to expect even more, which raises a genuine question: at what point does "AI demand" stop being a growth story and start being a test of whether anything in the economy can actually absorb this much money moving in one direction. Oil slipped below $85 a barrel after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled real progress on easing sanctions against Iran, and if that deal closes and 700,000 extra barrels a day hit the market, you'll feel it at the petrol pump before the month is out. Australia's inflation rate just dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in eighteen months, and mortgage holders across the country are now watching the Reserve Bank of Australia very closely ahead of its September meeting, because that number is close enough to the target that a rate cut is no longer just a hope. If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps the next listener find us. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:13 Nvidia Q2 Revenue Surges ~95% YoY; AI Chip Demand Sets New R 03:01 Oil Slides Below $85 as US-Iran Sanctions Deal Signals Progr 05:34 Australia July CPI Slows to 3.5%, Lifting RBA Rate-Cut Hopes 07:37 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The US just threatened to cut off from the global dollar system any bank, anywhere on earth, that keeps doing business with Iran, and gave them a countdown clock to comply before the consequences hit. South Korea's stock market just had its worst day in weeks because Washington is reportedly leaning on the companies that make the memory chips inside every major AI system to build their next factories in America instead. The US government is quietly buying its own debt to keep its borrowing costs from spiraling, and the people whose job it is to watch for exactly this kind of thing are not reassured. If today's episode made something click, a five-star rating helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:08 US Launches 'Operation Economic Outcast' Against Iran 02:35 South Korea's KOSPI Tumbles 2.66% on US Chip-Investment Pres 04:39 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The US government is now paying more to borrow money for 30 years than it has since before the first iPhone shipped, and the Treasury's attempt to calm the bond market lasted about 48 hours before the yield crawled right back up to 5.27%. Nvidia reports earnings this week, and at this point the entire US stock market has essentially stopped pretending it's about anything else, with semiconductors down more than 4% last week and the Nasdaq sliding 2% while everyone waits for a single company to tell them how to feel. Brent crude is holding above $93 a barrel because the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply, still isn't freely open to most ships six months into the disruption, and $93 has quietly gone from a crisis price to just the price. If today's episode was useful, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps the next listener find it. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:20 US 30-Year Treasury Yield Holds Near 19-Year High at 5.27% 03:33 US Equities Start Week Under Pressure as Semiconductor Rout 05:48 Brent Crude Above $93 as Hormuz Shipping Disruption Persists 07:13 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Walmart just posted its weakest US sales growth in six years, low-income shoppers are pulling back hard under the weight of fuel costs, and the company's own leadership won't promise the next quarter looks any better. The UAE has cut all financial ties with Iran following ballistic missile strikes on its territory, and Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is now sitting at $93 a barrel, which is 37% higher than it was this time last year and heading in the wrong direction for anyone who drives, flies, or heats their home. The US Treasury tried to calm its own bond market by announcing bigger buybacks of long-dated government debt, the bond market thought about it for a few hours, and then pushed the 30-year yield straight back up to 5.25%, which tells you something about how much confidence investors actually have in Washington's ability to manage its borrowing costs right now. If today's episode helped you make sense of a genuinely ugly week, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and it helps more people find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:15 Walmart shares tumble 9% on slowest US sales growth in six y 03:04 Brent crude climbs to $93 as UAE sanctions Iran after missil 05:04 30-yr US Treasury yield surges to 5.25% as buyback relief fa 06:58 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The US Treasury just doubled its long-bond buyback cap to $4 billion a quarter, and whether you call it market management or something closer to the government quietly buying its own debt at record prices, it worked, because 30-year yields dropped the moment the announcement landed. The Fed's July meeting minutes are out, and the part nobody's talking about loudly enough is that three of twelve officials actually wanted to raise rates last month, which means the next mortgage rate hike was one or two votes away from being real. China's central bank held its benchmark lending rate steady this morning, and the story behind that decision is a recovery where the factories are running full tilt but ordinary consumers still aren't spending, a gap that should worry anyone watching global commodity prices. If today's episode helped something click, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and genuinely helps other listeners find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:14 US Treasury doubles long-bond buyback cap to $4bn, sinking y 03:08 FOMC July minutes: 3 officials wanted rate hike; September o 05:40 PBoC holds Loan Prime Rate steady as China weighs uneven rec 07:33 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The US-Iran ceasefire expired yesterday with nothing to show for it, and Iran is now threatening to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly one barrel in every five of the world's oil supply. US government borrowing costs for 30 years just hit 5.31%, a level we haven't seen since 2007, and if you think that's just a bond market problem, your mortgage rate would like a word. Asian chip stocks got wrecked overnight, with South Korea's main index down 5.5% in a single session, and the uncomfortable truth is that the same borrowing costs making your home loan worse are now unwinding the trade that's powered global markets for two years. If today's episode helped the picture click into place, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify genuinely helps other people find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:08 Iran Shifts to Offensive Posture as US-Iran Ceasefire Expire 03:03 US 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High at 5.31% 05:26 Asia Semiconductor Stocks Tumble: South Korea's KOSPI Falls 07:05 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Iran's latest threats to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries roughly one in five barrels of oil shipped globally, are keeping crude above $84 a barrel, and that number doesn't stay in the Gulf forever — it follows you to the petrol station. BHP just reported a 30% jump in profit to $13.2 billion, and the bigger story buried inside those numbers is that copper, the metal wiring every electric vehicle and data cable on the planet, has overtaken iron ore as their biggest earner for the first time in the company's history. Meanwhile, Wall Street slid Monday after a surprise drop in July retail sales, and the part that should give you pause is that the market's own fear gauge is sitting at its calmest level of the year, right in the middle of rising oil prices, a cooling consumer, and an unresolved conflict in the Middle East. If this one was useful, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next listener find it. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:13 Oil Holds Above $84 as Iran Diplomacy Stalls, Hormuz Stays S 02:48 BHP FY26 Profit Surges 30% as Copper Overtakes Iron Ore 05:05 Wall Street Slides as Retail Sales Miss Weighs on Consumer O 07:06 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The US and Canada have 48 hours to cut a deal before a 50% tariff lands on roughly 20 billion dollars' worth of Canadian exports, and if they don't, the price of things like cheese, wine, and new cars goes up for real people on both sides of the border. Meanwhile, the US government just sold 30-year bonds, borrowing money guaranteed until 2056, at the highest interest rate since 2001, which tells you something uncomfortable about what the bond market thinks of America's fiscal trajectory right now. And Japan's economy grew at barely half the speed economists expected in the second quarter, which puts the Bank of Japan in a genuinely awkward spot as it tries to convince markets it's ready to keep raising rates. If today's episode helped things click, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and it helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:15 US-Canada Trade Talks Reach Critical Juncture With 50% Tarif 03:08 US 30-Year Treasury Yield Holds Near 5.26%, Highest Since 20 06:01 Japan Q2 GDP Grows Just 1.1% Annualised, Missing 2% Forecast 08:07 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Inflation came in cooler in July and the White House is taking a bow, but real wages are still negative, meaning prices are still rising faster than most people's pay, and that's been true every single month this year. Japan's wholesale prices have risen for five months straight and a rate hike in September is now almost a certainty, which sounds like someone else's problem until you realise the yen's weakness is quietly reshaping what everything from electronics to car parts costs you. Britain's economy grew in the second quarter, which is technically good news, but the IMF and OECD both cut the UK's outlook by more than any other wealthy country this week, and they named the reason: the UK is more exposed to the Middle East energy shock than almost anywhere else in the developed world. If today's episode helped you cut through the noise, a quick five-star rating genuinely helps other people find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:12 US CPI Cools to 3.4% in July, But Real Wages Still Negative 03:09 Japan Producer Prices Hold at 7.2%, BOJ September Hike Hits 05:40 UK Q2 GDP Grows 0.4% but Slows From Q1; June Surprise Lifts 07:27 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly shut for six months now and the IEA says the world is heading into the third quarter short by 1.8 million barrels a day, which is the kind of number that doesn't stay in the energy market for long before it shows up in your petrol bill. India just recorded its lowest inflation in seven years and almost nobody in the West is talking about it, which feels like a mistake when you're discussing the most populous country on earth and whether the global rate cycle is actually turning. US inflation came in exactly where forecasters expected, which sounds fine until you notice that wages are still running below prices for the fourth month straight, so "matching forecasts" isn't quite the same thing as things getting better for most people. If today's episode earned a few minutes of your commute, a quick rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps someone else find the show tomorrow. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:16 IEA Warns of 1.8Mb/d Oil Shortfall as Hormuz Deadlock Deepen 03:00 India July CPI Falls to 3.54%, Lowest Since Mid-2019, Openin 05:08 US July CPI Hits 3.4%, Matching Forecasts and Cooling Rate-H 06:51 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The July inflation number just came in hotter than expected, and the reason is pretty direct: the collapse of US-Iran peace talks sent oil prices climbing, and that cost has now worked its way into your grocery receipt and your petrol bill in one clean, ugly line. The 50% tariff on Canadian imports takes effect in seven days, and the uncomfortable part isn't just the price of cheese and butter going up before Labour Day, it's that the Fed has to sit on its hands and watch inflation climb from two directions at once while deciding whether to raise interest rates. If today's episode helped you make sense of what's actually going on with prices right now, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next person find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:15 US July CPI Surges Back as Oil Pass-Through Hits Consumers 03:06 US Canada Tariff Clock Ticks: 50% Levy Takes Effect August 1 05:32 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Iran's foreign minister just ruled out direct talks with Washington and renewed demands over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that 20% of the world's oil supply passes through, and crude is already up 5% this week, which means this isn't a geopolitical footnote, it's heading straight for your petrol bill. Berkshire Hathaway posted a 16% jump in quarterly profits and then did something its famously cautious new CEO Greg Abel hadn't done before at this scale: spent big on buying back its own shares, and when a company sitting on one of the largest cash piles in American corporate history decides now is the time to spend it, that's a signal worth paying attention to. If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating helps someone else find the show tomorrow. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:16 Iran Rejects Hormuz Deal Terms, WTI Crude Surges 5% to $82 03:15 Berkshire Hathaway Surges 2.3% as Q2 Earnings Rise 16%, Buyb 05:49 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The US economy shed jobs in July for the first time since February, and the bizarre part is that markets loved it, because bad news for workers still reads as good news for rate cuts and stocks closed at record highs on Friday. Iran ruled out any talks on the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and there are reports of a tanker strike, which means roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil supply is now sitting behind a door that just got slammed shut. China's latest inflation numbers show a country running two economies at once: factories exporting at full throttle while ordinary Chinese consumers have basically stopped spending, and that gap is getting harder to explain away. If today's episode helped you make sense of the week ahead, a quick rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps other listeners find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:12 US July Payrolls Shrink by 23,000, First Drop Since February 03:16 Iran Rules Out Hormuz Talks; Tanker Strike Report Roils Oil 05:34 China July CPI Cools to 0.5%, Six-Month Low; PPI Also Slows 07:18 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The US economy slowed sharply in Q2 and inflation is finally cooling, but both things are happening for the same reason, which is that oil prices fell, which is itself a consequence of the Middle East conflict, so the "good news" on prices and the "bad news" on growth aren't really two separate stories. A drone hit an American gas tanker in Egypt yesterday, the first attack of this war on a vessel at Damietta, and the port sits right next to the Suez Canal, the last functioning safe route for Gulf oil heading to Europe, so this one matters well beyond the ship itself. The Bank of England held UK interest rates at 3.75% today but three of the nine policymakers on the committee voted to raise them, which is a closer call than almost anyone expected and a real signal that another hike is on the table when they meet again in September. If today's episode helped you get your head around a genuinely complicated news day, a five-star rating helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:25 US Q2 GDP Slows to 1.5% as PCE Inflation Cools to 3.3% 03:08 Drone Strikes US LNG Vessel at Egypt's Damietta, Rattling Su 05:29 Bank of England Holds at 3.75% in Tight 6-3 Vote, Flags Hike 07:14 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The Fed held rates steady again, but three of its own members wanted a hike, the bond market threw a fit, and long-term borrowing costs are now at levels most people haven't seen since the mid-2000s — so "on hold" is doing a lot of work as a phrase right now. Iran fired ballistic missiles at US troops in Jordan, every one of them was intercepted, and oil still surged nearly 8% in a single session, because markets aren't pricing what happened, they're pricing what comes next. South Korea's stock market hit its emergency stop for the second day in a row, something that has never happened in its history, and the reason buried under all the numbers is a growing fear that the AI spending boom won't actually pay off the way everyone assumed. If today's episode helped you get your head around a genuinely strange news day, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps other listeners find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:15 Divided Fed holds rates at 3.5–3.75%, sparking bond market r 03:00 Brent crude surges 7.90% to $90.74 as Iran targets US forces 04:58 South Korea's KOSPI triggers circuit breaker for second stra 06:53 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Iran fired ballistic missiles at US troops in the Middle East overnight, every one was intercepted, and oil prices surged more than 4% anyway, because markets don't price what happened, they price what comes next. The Fed held rates steady for the fifth meeting in a row, which sounds boring until you realise your mortgage rate and your savings rate have both been frozen since December while a Middle East conflict quietly pushes prices higher. South Korea's stock market triggered a trading halt today after SK Hynix, one of the world's biggest AI memory chip makers, reported record profits and still saw its stock tumble more than 15%, which tells you everything about how brutal the expectations game has become in the AI trade. If today's episode helped you cut through the noise, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify takes about ten seconds and genuinely helps other people find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:07 Iran Launches Ballistic Missile Salvo at US Forces; Oil Surg 02:51 Fed Holds Rates at 3.50–3.75% for Fifth Straight Meeting Und 05:15 South Korea's KOSPI Tumbles 8%+ as Chip Rout Deepens on SK H 07:10 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: South Korea had to hit the pause button on its entire stock market this morning as the global bet on AI spending started looking a lot shakier than it did last week. A Chinese memory chip company you've almost certainly never heard of briefly became worth more than Walmart on its very first day of trading, and that tells you something important about where Beijing thinks the real war in tech is being fought. While everyone was watching chips crater, Europe's economy quietly crossed back into growth for the first time in months, which is either a genuine turning point or the most poorly timed piece of good news in recent memory. If this helped you make sense of a genuinely strange day in markets, a quick rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:14 Korea halts trading as Kospi plunges 9% on AI spending doubt 03:00 China's CXMT IPO surges 535% on Shanghai debut, valued at $4 05:09 Eurozone and UK PMIs return to expansion, lifting European s 07:07 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Oil just had its worst day in months, and the reason is genuinely good news: Iran and the US have agreed to stop hitting each other, at least for now, and the relief in energy markets was immediate and dramatic. The European Central Bank held rates steady at 2.25% last week, but the message underneath the pause was clear enough that anybody with a mortgage or a business loan in Europe should probably pay attention to September. Japan's inflation ticked up for the first time since March, and the story buried inside that number points straight back to the Persian Gulf, which tells you just how connected all of this really is. If this helped you join the dots today, a quick rating in your podcast app helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:13 Brent Crude Tumbles 7%+ as US and Iran Suspend Strikes 03:03 ECB Holds at 2.25% with Hawkish Tone; September Hike on Tabl 05:21 Japan Core CPI Rises to 1.6% in June, First Uptick Since Mar 07:18 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Oil crossed $100 a barrel overnight because Houthi rebels in Yemen set fire to a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, and if you're wondering what that has to do with your petrol bill, the answer is: quite a lot, quite soon. Alphabet beat its revenue forecast and still got punished by markets, because it told investors it plans to spend $205 billion on AI this year and Wall Street's patience for "trust us, the payoff is coming" is running thin. America is now twelve nights into airstrikes on Iran, the president is hinting publicly at something much larger, and with oil already above $100, the global economy is operating with almost no margin for this to get worse, and it might. If today's episode was useful, a quick five-star rating helps other people find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:11 Brent Crude Tops $100 After Houthis Strike Two Saudi Tankers 03:21 Nasdaq Tumbles 2.15% as Alphabet and Tesla AI Spend Alarms W 06:01 Trump Threatens Massive Iran Strike; US Completes 12th Night 07:56 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Iran nuclear talks have collapsed, the U.S. is on its eleventh straight night of strikes on Iranian military facilities, and for the first time since this conflict started, two of the world's biggest oil shipping routes are under threat simultaneously, with Brent crude already above $95 and Goldman Sachs calling $120 the base case if neither lane reopens. Alphabet just beat Wall Street's revenue expectations by nearly three billion dollars, announced it's spending $205 billion this year building AI infrastructure, and the stock still fell, which tells you something about how high the bar has become for the companies running this race. The European Central Bank held interest rates steady today at 2.25%, which sounds like nothing happened, but with oil prices surging and inflation forecasts already revised upward, the September meeting is quietly setting up to be one of the most consequential calls the ECB has faced in years. If today's episode helped you get your head around what's actually going on, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next person find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:17 Brent Crude Surges Past $95 as Iran Talks Collapse, Two Sea 03:02 Alphabet Q2 Revenue Hits $119.8bn, But $205bn Capex Plan Rat 05:13 ECB Holds Rates at 2.25%, Signals Caution as Oil Inflation R 06:54 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Trump just hit Canada with 50% tariffs using a law that hasn't been touched since Herbert Hoover was in the White House and the Great Depression was still getting started, and if that doesn't tell you how far outside normal territory we've moved, nothing will. Britain's bond market, which had been pricing in a rough ride under the new Burnham government, calmed down fast when the surprise chancellor pick turned out to be someone traders read as a fiscal grown-up rather than a political reward. South Korea's stock market just had one of its best sessions in months, and the reason is almost entirely Nvidia's order book, which probably tells you more about how the AI trade is reshaping the world than any summit communiqué ever could. If today's episode helped you make sense of things, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and it genuinely helps more people find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:13 Trump hits Canada with 50% tariffs on autos, dairy, wine 03:10 UK gilts stabilise as surprise chancellor pick calms markets 05:48 South Korea's KOSPI surges 5.56% as AI chip rally extends 07:37 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Nine consecutive nights of US strikes on Iranian targets have pushed oil back above $90 a barrel, and if you think that's a story about geopolitics and not about your petrol bill or your mortgage, today's episode will change your mind. US 30-year mortgage rates just hit their highest point in nearly a year, and the reason ties directly back to that same conflict, because oil, inflation expectations, and borrowing costs are more connected than most people realise until it's already showing up in their monthly payment. Then, a single sentence from an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman in the middle of the night sent chipmaker stocks rallying across Asia by 1.7%, which tells you everything about how tightly wound markets are to every signal out of Tehran right now. If today's episode helped connect some dots, a five-star rating takes about three seconds and helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:17 Brent Crude Tops $90 as US Launches 9th Night of Iran Strike 03:06 US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Hits 6.55%, Highest in Nearly a Yea 05:00 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The US and Iran escalated over the weekend in ways that will show up at your petrol pump this week, with Brent crude clearing $90 a barrel after strikes hit vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and took out a Kuwaiti oil processing facility, and the uncomfortable truth is that every tick higher in oil makes it harder for central banks to cut rates the way everyone was hoping. The AI chip trade has now given back nearly a fifth of its peak value in under a month, and Netflix missing its revenue target by roughly $40 million was apparently all it took to remind markets that "the future of tech" is still a business that has to hit its numbers. With the European Central Bank due to announce its next rate decision on Thursday, this is a good moment to sit with a genuinely awkward problem: a war in the Middle East is pushing prices up and squeezing growth at the same time, and there is no clean rate move that solves both. If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating takes ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:16 Brent Tops $90 After US-Iran Strikes Hit Kuwait Oil Facility 03:11 US Semiconductor Index Down 20% From Peak as Netflix Crash D 05:45 ECB Rate Decision Due July 24 After June Hike Cycle Restarts 07:47 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: America's biggest banks just had their best quarter on record, and the fact that JPMorgan making $21 billion in three months barely led the news cycle tells you everything about how much else happened this week. Inflation fell harder than almost anyone expected in June, which would normally be cause for a proper celebration, but oil is creeping back above $80 and the Strait of Hormuz is suddenly a geopolitical flashpoint, so the Fed's job just got complicated again before it even had a chance to feel good about the progress. Chip stocks have lost a fifth of their value in under a month, and the whole story of whether AI spending is real and durable or a build-up looking for a correction is basically going to be answered in the next two weeks of earnings. TSMC, the Taiwanese company that physically manufactures the chips inside almost every AI system on the planet, just posted its fifth straight quarterly record and pledged another hundred billion dollars into Arizona, which tells a very different story from the one the selloff is telling. And the Trump administration's new "protection tax" on oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical shipping lanes on Earth, is doing exactly what you'd expect to fuel prices just as inflation was starting to ease. If this week made more sense by the end of this episode, a five-star rating helps the next person find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:27 Big Five Banks Sweep Q2 Estimates; JPMorgan Posts Record Pro 02:06 June CPI Falls to 3.5%, Coolest Reading Since April 2023 03:32 Chip Stocks Tumble; SOX Index on Track for 20% Pullback 05:05 TSMC Posts Record Q2 Profit, Adds $100B Arizona Investment 06:29 Hormuz Tensions Lift Oil Above $80 as U.S.–Iran Conflict Wid 07:42 Closing thoughts

Today on The Open Bell: TSMC, the Taiwanese company that makes the chips inside almost everything AI runs on, just reported its best earnings in years and its stock still fell more than 4%, which tells you the AI trade isn't about fundamentals anymore, it's about whether the next number can keep topping the last one. SpaceX dropped below its $135 IPO price this week, just one month after raising $75 billion in the biggest public offering in history, and Elon Musk went from the world's first trillionaire to technically not one faster than most people get through a job probation period. US mortgage rates have climbed to 6.55%, a near one-year high, and the uncomfortable part is the Fed hasn't actually moved, the bond market has just decided it will, and that distinction matters a lot if you're trying to buy a house right now. If today's episode helped you make sense of the week, a quick five-star rating genuinely helps other people find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:13 TSMC Q2 Earnings Beat Sends Chip Stocks Tumbling Anyway 03:07 SpaceX Drops Below $135 IPO Price, Wiping Trillionaire Statu 05:35 US Mortgage Rates Hit Near-One-Year High at 6.55% on Inflati 07:23 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The US struck Iranian targets overnight for the second time in as many days, oil is back above $80 a barrel, and the risk that the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that handles about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, gets seriously disrupted is no longer a tail risk anyone's dismissing. Apple got regulatory approval from Beijing to switch on its AI features for Chinese iPhone users, roughly 17% of the company's global revenue just got a whole lot more interesting, and the stock hit an all-time record close the same day. If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating helps the next listener find it. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:12 US strikes Iran again; oil tops $80 as Hormuz risk premium c 03:26 Apple surges 4% to record close on China AI approval; Alibab 06:12 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: US inflation posted its biggest monthly drop in six years, which sounds great until you find out the main reason it fell is already going into reverse. IBM just lost a quarter of its stock market value in a single day, and the warning underneath that number is that big companies are gutting their software budgets to fund AI hardware, which is bad news for a lot more than just IBM. China's economy grew at 4.3% last quarter, well short of its own targets, and the uncomfortable reality is that the world's largest middle class has stopped spending, while Beijing is still figuring out whether it wants to admit that's actually the problem. If today's episode helped you cut through the noise, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and genuinely helps more people find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:16 US June CPI Tumbles to 3.5%, Biggest Monthly Drop Since Apri 03:03 IBM Plunges 25% on AI Budget Shift Warning, Dragging Enterpr 05:13 China Q2 GDP Growth Slows to 4.3%, Missing Target on Weak De 06:51 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Trump has reimposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, and slapped a 20% toll on everything that moves through it, and Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, jumped nearly 10% overnight to $83 a barrel, which means this isn't a market story, it's a petrol pump story. New Fed chair Kevin Warsh is testifying before Congress this morning for the very first time, and given that he's walking in the door on the same day as the inflation report and five major bank earnings releases, we're about to find out very quickly what he's actually made of. JPMorgan, Goldman, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all dropped their second-quarter results before the opening bell this morning, investment banking revenues are up around 26% across the board, and the timing tells you everything: Wall Street is printing money at the exact moment the Fed is deciding whether borrowing stays expensive for everyone else. If today's episode is earning its place in your morning, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and genuinely helps other people find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:20 Trump Reinstates Iran Blockade; Brent Crude Surges 9.6% to $ 03:17 Fed Chair Warsh Delivers Maiden Congressional Testimony on M 05:45 Five US Mega-Banks Report Q2 Earnings; Investment Banking Re 07:35 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: U.S. forces struck Iranian targets overnight and Brent crude is back above $79 a barrel, which means the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries roughly a quarter of the world's oil, is doing what it always does when tensions flare: making everyone's petrol bill a geopolitical problem. A 300-page housing affordability bill just became U.S. law, and buried inside it is a provision that blocks any government-issued digital dollar until at least 2031, which is the kind of thing that gets five words in the press release and turns out to matter quite a lot. Australia's rate markets are quietly pricing in another hike from the Reserve Bank in August, and if you want to understand why that's worth watching beyond Sydney, consider that Australian households carry some of the heaviest mortgage debt in the world and petrol is already creeping back up. If this helped you make sense of today, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and genuinely helps other people find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:15 New U.S. Iran Strikes Send Brent Crude Back Above $79 a Barr 03:03 U.S. Housing Affordability Act Becomes Law, Banning Fed Digi 05:52 Australia's Rate Market Prices Fresh Tightening as RBA Augus 07:58 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Trump stood at a NATO summit in Ankara and declared the US-Iran ceasefire finished, and oil prices jumped more than five percent within hours, which tells you everything about how fragile the assumption of calm in that region actually was. A South Korean chipmaker called SK Hynix just raised $26.5 billion on the Nasdaq, the biggest US listing by a foreign company ever, and the stock climbed 13% on its first day, so the appetite for anything touching AI-era semiconductors is clearly nowhere near exhausted. Meta is up more than 22% in ten trading days after reports emerged that the company is building its own AI chip, and at some point you have to ask whether the market is pricing in a genuinely new Meta or just getting swept up in the moment. The US added only 57,000 jobs in June, less than half of what forecasters expected, and more than 700,000 people dropped out of the workforce entirely, which is the kind of number that should be making more headlines than it is. And the Federal Reserve's own internal minutes show a committee that's split, with some officials pushing to raise interest rates again even as the jobs market cools, so the idea that rates are on a clear path down is looking shakier by the week. If this show helped you cut through the noise today, a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify genuinely helps other people find it. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:27 Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire 'Over' at NATO Summit 02:12 SK Hynix Raises $26.5B in Largest-Ever US Foreign IPO 04:01 Meta Surges 14%-Plus on the Week as AI Chip Plans Emerge 05:38 June Payrolls Miss Badly at 57K; Rate-Hike Bets Cool 07:13 FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed Split; Hawkish Wing Eyes Hike 08:46 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: SK Hynix just pulled off one of the biggest US stock market debuts in history, and the fact that investors threw seven times more money at it than was available tells you everything about how desperate Wall Street is to own a piece of the AI memory trade right now. The US government is now paying its highest borrowing cost in roughly twenty years on long-term debt, and that's not just a bond market footnote because those rates flow directly into your mortgage, your car loan, and every infrastructure project that needs financing. If this helped make sense of a big week, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:26 SK Hynix $28bn Nasdaq ADR priced 7x oversubscribed, debuts J 03:27 US 30-year Treasury auction clears at highest yield in nearl 06:13 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Trump just torched the Iran ceasefire deal and the U.S. bombed over 80 Iranian targets overnight, and the immediate consequence is sitting right there on the petrol station forecourt: oil up more than 5% in a single day. The Federal Reserve's own internal minutes show that roughly half its members are open to raising interest rates again this year, and if you've got a variable-rate mortgage or any serious credit card balance, that sentence should stop you cold. The IMF cut its forecast for how fast the global economy will grow in 2026, and they did it before Trump even scrapped the ceasefire, which means the number they published is already out of date and almost certainly too optimistic. If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps the next listener find it. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:14 Trump kills Iran ceasefire; Brent crude surges 5.2% to $78 02:58 FOMC minutes flag rate-hike risk; 25–30% chance priced for J 05:34 IMF cuts 2026 global growth to 3.0% as Iran war shock bites 07:04 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The US struck more than 80 Iranian targets and revoked Iran's oil export waivers on the same day, and if you think that's just a geopolitics story, check your petrol app in a fortnight. Samsung just posted the biggest profit in its history and its stock fell 10%, which tells you everything you need to know about how markets price expectations versus reality right now. Amazon borrowed $25 billion in a single afternoon to build AI data centres, and the fact that investors were lining up to lend it is as much the story as what Amazon plans to do with the money. If today's episode helped you cut through the noise, a quick five-star rating on Apple or Spotify helps someone else find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:13 US Strikes Iran, Revokes Oil Waiver; Brent Surges 5.7% to $7 02:39 Samsung Posts 1,810% Profit Surge; Seoul KOSPI Plunges 4.91% 05:18 Amazon Prices $25bn AI Bond Sale; 40-Year Debt at 125bps Ove 07:12 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 this morning, which means the index funds sitting in millions of retirement accounts had no choice but to buy $4.3 billion worth of Elon Musk's rocket company, because that's just how passive investing works. OPEC+ has now hiked oil output three months in a row, WTI crude is below $68.65 a barrel, and if you're filling up this week you should actually notice the difference at the pump. Foxconn, the company that assembles most of the world's iPhones, just reported a 40% revenue jump, and almost none of it came from smartphones. If this helped you make sense of today, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps a lot. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:14 SpaceX enters Nasdaq-100 on July 7, forcing $4.3bn in passiv 03:05 OPEC+ adds 188,000 bpd from August, pushing WTI below $68.65 05:11 Foxconn Q2 revenue surges 39.8% on AI demand, flags geopolit 06:41 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: US markets reopen after the long weekend and Nasdaq futures are already up nearly a percent, but the real story is what's inside the index now, because SpaceX just got added to the Nasdaq-100 and if you hold one of those index funds in your pension or retirement account, you're a SpaceX investor as of this morning whether you chose to be or not. Oil has dropped close to 20% in two weeks as US-Iran talks quietly make progress, and that's not an abstraction, it's the price at the pump coming down after months of energy costs grinding people's budgets flat. South Korean chip stocks just shed roughly $290 billion in a single day, about the same size as Portugal's entire economy, and what's wild is that the companies involved are genuinely great businesses, the market just decided that even the best trade of the decade can overheat. If today helped you cut through the noise, a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps the next listener find the show. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:20 US Stocks Reopen After Holiday; Nasdaq Futures Surge 0.92% 03:23 WTI Crude Holds Below $69 as Iran Deal Progress Damps Supply 05:31 South Korea Kospi Opens Weak as Chip Rout Extends Into New W 07:20 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Meta just announced it has so much AI computing power sitting around that it's going to start selling the surplus to other companies, and the knock-on effect was a full-blown wipeout across the semiconductor sector, because the entire bull case for AI chips was built on the idea that there'd never be enough of them. South Korea's stock market fell nearly 8% in a single session, triggered circuit breakers, and erased the equivalent of hundreds of billions of dollars, which tells you something uncomfortable: Seoul's market had become so concentrated in AI chip names that one Meta headline was enough to blow the whole thing up. The U.S. added just 57,000 jobs in June, less than half what economists expected, and then May and April got quietly revised down too, so the real picture is softer than even that headline number suggests. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the old-economy index that serious people spent years dismissing as irrelevant, just hit a record high while the flashy tech-heavy indexes were getting demolished, which is either a genuine shift in what the market thinks wins from here, or the most elaborate head-fake of the year. Gold bounced $200 an ounce in a week, oil slipped below $70 as Iran talks quietly progressed, and the jobs miss has markets pricing in rate cuts again, so the mood heading into the long weekend is: maybe the Fed eases, maybe the economy slows, and somehow both of those things feel like good news right now. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:18 Meta 'Meta Compute' Plan Triggers Global AI Chip Rout 02:07 KOSPI Triggers Circuit Breakers in 7.9% Single-Day Crash 03:47 June Jobs Miss: Only 57K Payrolls vs. 115K Expected 05:12 Dow Hits Record 52,900 as 'Great Rotation' Into Old Economy 06:31 Gold Rebounds to $4,200 as Oil Slips Below $70 on Iran Talks 07:51 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The Strait of Hormuz is half-blocked, LNG infrastructure is damaged, and the IEA is using words like "greatest threat to global energy security in history," which means the price of getting to work, heating your home, and flying anywhere this summer isn't coming down anytime soon. The US added just 57,000 jobs in June, roughly half of what forecasters expected, and if you strip out the temporary World Cup spending bump, the underlying picture looks considerably worse than a headline unemployment rate of 4.2% would have you believe. America's new Fed chair just scrapped forward guidance, meaning the central bank, which sets the interest rates that determine what you pay on a mortgage or a car loan, has stopped telling markets what it plans to do next, and whether that reads as honest or alarming probably depends on how much debt you're carrying. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:17 Middle East War Pushes Global Energy to Worst Supply Crisis 03:30 US June Payrolls Miss Badly: Only 57K Jobs, Half Forecast 05:56 US Fed Holds at 3.50%–3.75% as New Chair Warsh Drops Forward 07:39 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Meta has spent years hoarding AI chips, and it's bought so many that it's now turning itself into a cloud computing business to lease the excess out, which apparently came as enough of a shock to markets that it knocked more than 10% off several chipmakers in a single day. UK energy bills jumped 13% on July 1, the biggest quarterly increase since the 2022 crisis, and the country that has to absorb that hit is currently running without a prime minister. The US added only 98,000 private-sector jobs in June, one of the weakest prints in well over a year, but wages are still rising fast enough that the Federal Reserve, which sets interest rates in part to keep price pressures in check, has no real reason to cut rates any time soon. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:17 Meta Cloud Pivot Wipes Billions from Global Chip Stocks 03:03 UK Energy Bills to Jump 13% in July as Ofgem Raises Price Ca 05:31 US June ADP Payrolls Miss: Private Hiring Slows to 98,000 06:59 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Oil just posted its worst quarter since the pandemic, down 38% in three months, and the story isn't just cheap petrol: it's that a collapse this big reshapes everything from Saudi Arabia's government budget to how hard the Fed has to fight inflation. The Fed's own internal forecasts spooked markets badly enough last week that traders now price a one-in-three chance of a rate hike in July, which matters to anyone with a mortgage, a business loan, or the vague hope that borrowing was about to get cheaper. Japan's central bank is sitting at its highest interest rate since 1995 and the yen is still falling, because when the US looks like it might tighten even further, every other currency gets dragged along for the ride. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:20 Brent Crude Slides Below $70, Sealing 38% Quarterly Collapse 02:54 Fed Rate-Hike Odds Surge to 36% After Hawkish June Dot Plot 05:15 Japan's BOJ Holds at 1.00% as Fed Divergence Pushes Yen Lowe 07:13 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: The US and Iran agreed to stop shooting at each other across the Strait of Hormuz, and oil markets dropped so fast you'd think someone had flipped a switch, which is exactly what happened. The Dow Jones, the 30-stock index that's been tracking American business since 1896, crossed 52,000 for the first time in its history, and the uncomfortable truth is that Google joining the club had more to do with it than anything the economy actually did this week. If you own a Nasdaq index fund, a tracker that holds the hundred biggest tech and growth stocks on the exchange, you're now a SpaceX investor, because the company joined the index and passive funds are required to buy it, no vote, no opt-out, just automatic. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:17 US and Iran Agree Ceasefire Standdown; Doha Talks Set for Ju 03:42 Dow Tops 52,000 First Time as Alphabet Joins Blue-Chip Index 06:08 SpaceX Joins Nasdaq-100, Forcing Passive Funds to Buy $30B+ 07:45 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Venezuela's earthquake death toll has passed 1,450, the country's worst in over a century, and the fact that U.S. Marines are now surveying its main port tells you something important about who actually has leverage in a disaster — even one involving a government Washington has spent years trying to isolate. The European Central Bank hiked rates just weeks ago for the first time since 2023, markets are now pricing another hike by December, and the North African conflict that's been driving energy costs across the continent is the reason your heating bill has a European accent right now. Alphabet joins the Dow Jones Industrial Average — that's the 30-company list most people mean when they say "the market is up today" — replacing a phone company, which is either a statement about how the economy has changed or the most obvious thing to happen in markets all year, depending on how much credit you give the people who run these things. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:18 Venezuela quake death toll hits 1,450; U.S. Marines begin La 03:13 ECB December hike now fully priced as eurozone flash CPI loo 05:47 Alphabet joins Dow Jones at Monday open, ending Verizon's 8- 07:49 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow channel that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil — was closed, on the exact same day the US quietly granted Iran permission to sell more of that oil, which tells you everything you need to know about how well these Switzerland talks are actually going. SpaceX pulled off the biggest stock market debut in years, pocketed $75 billion, and then immediately walked over to the bond market — where companies borrow by issuing debt to investors — to ask for $20 billion more, which is either visionary capital strategy or a sign that building a rocket empire costs more than even a $75 billion payday can cover. For the first time in 25 years, an AI chip company just knocked the previous king off the top of the global stock market rankings — the list of the most valuable companies on Earth — and if that feels distant from your life, consider that most pension funds are still catching up to a shift that already happened. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:23 Iran's Hormuz Closure Statement Rattles Oil as Switzerland T 03:26 SpaceX Launches $20bn Bond Sale Days After Record $75bn IPO 05:43 AI Boom Crowns New Global Market Cap Leader for First Time S 07:40 Closing thoughtsSupport the show

Today on The Open Bell: Brent is still above $100 and the ceasefire holding the Strait of Hormuz together is contested enough that calling it a ceasefire feels generous — this is the biggest oil supply shock in recorded history, and it isn't over. Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC meeting and walked out threatening rate hikes, not cuts — and the bond market's reaction was the loudest it's been on a Fed day in nearly two decades. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.Support the show

Today on The Open Bell: American consumers spent nearly twice what forecasters expected in May, which sounds like great news until you ask whether they're actually better off or just paying more for the same stuff. China has just published a five-year plan to lock down global critical minerals, and Europe is already reaching for import quotas — the materials trade war that's been simmering for years is starting to boil. Brazil is sitting on a 13.5% interest rate with inflation still running hot, but falling oil prices — a side effect of geopolitics nobody saw coming — may quietly hand its central bank the exit ramp it's been waiting for. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.Support the show

Here's something nobody tells you: the global economy doesn't ask permission before it rearranges your life.Interest rates, oil prices, currency moves, trade deals — these aren't abstractions happening to someone else. They're why your mortgage payment went up. They're why your weekly shop costs more than it did two years ago. And they're why your pension is doing whatever it's doing right now, whether you've checked it or not.I'm Alex Monroe, and The Open Bell is a daily financial podcast for curious, intelligent adults who want to understand markets — but don't work in them. Every weekday morning, plain English, around ten minutes.Subscribe now wherever you get your podcasts. The first episode drops soon.Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.Support the show