When the Facts Change
by The Spinoff
When the Facts Change, Hosted by journalist Bernard Hickey, When the Facts Change is your essential weekly guide to the intersection of economics, business and politics in Aotearoa New Zealand. Presented by The Spinoff. When the Facts Change is currently on hiatus and is open for sponsorship. For more details, contact [email protected]
Episodes
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At Large with Toby Manhire: Is the Reserve Bank’s blunt tool just too blunt?
Since 1990 the Reserve Bank has been tasked with taming inflation independently from the government of the day. But is the tool it uses today, the official cash rate, with its focus on hitting an inflation rate of 1%-3%, causing more pain that it’s alleviating? Bernard Hickey joins Toby to make…
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Going up after digging down
Billions has been spent on the construction of Auckland’s City Rail Link, largely at the cost of taxpayers and ratepayers. The current Auckland council zoning rules, however, prevent the building of high-rise residential and commercial buildings at Mt Eden, Kingsland and Morningside stations....
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To cut or not to cut?
The Reserve Bank gets another chance to cut interest rates next week. So far 2025 has seen the RBNZ make three consecutive cuts to the official cash rate, which was widely expected by economists up and down the country. But next week, for the first time this year, there’s doubt. Kiwibank…
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Post Covid hybrid work
Many bosses now want their workers back in the office full time, but for a while in the immediate aftermath of Covid, workers had the power to demand the flexibility to stay home. Now the jobs market has sagged, the balance has shifted and a new hybrid way of working is becoming more common....
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How big do we want to be?
It’s no secret that Aotearoa is facing a range of monumental infrastructure challenges — much has been made lately of the state of our water pipes, ferries, railways and roads. Successive generations of decision makers have kicked the infrastructure maintenance can down the road, and now we are...
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An abundance of energy
‘Abundance’ is the hottest word in the political economy right now all around the world. A book by Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein called ‘Abundance: How we build a better future’ argues the centre-left should adopt urbanisation and electrification as central aims to improve affordability of…
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Dissension in the RBNZ ranks
The Reserve Bank cut the Official Cash Rate this week, as expected, but one of the six members of the bank’s rate setting committee voted to hold the OCR. That surprised markets and pushed up the wholesale interest rates that drive fixed mortgage rates. Bernard Hickey speaks with Kiwibank’s Mary…
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Budget special: When The Facts Change x Gone By Lunchtime
In the year of growth, Nicola Willis has presented a growth budget. But does the Investment Boost initiative, which speeds up depreciation for businesses, promise the kind of growth that the economy needs? In this special Spinoff pod for budget day, Toby Manhire asks Bernard Hickey for his take…
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Let the Budget battles commence
Fresh off a pre-Budget speech that took aim at the recent changes to pay equity, Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the government’s plans to cut $4.4 billion of spending over the next four years. What are the potential downsides of Nicola Willis’ austerity approach...
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Warmer, drier - and cheaper in the long run
In 2010, the NZ Green Building Council introduced the Homestar sustainability certification, a framework that aims to allow designers, architects and builders to build better, more environmentally friendly, energy efficient housing. The upfront cost of building to the Homestar certification can…
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Housing market psychology 101
This week, Bernard Hickey dives into the psychology of the housing market and talks to realestate.co.nz CEO Sarah Wood about why so many home sellers are holding on and simply not selling, rather than lowering their price to “meet the market” and “clear the market” in a way other markets do when...
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How do we create the ‘2degrees Effect’ for supermarkets, banking and electricity?
More than half of consumer spending is dominated one way or another by a collection of monopolies, duopolies and quadropolies that generate higher prices and profits than would be normal if there was true and tough competition, as a myriad of market studies and inquiries have found for...
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An AI-powered startup
Bernard Hickey talks to the co-founders of Christchurch-based AI start-up, Contented. Lucy Pink and Hannah Hardy-Jones tell their story from meeting over coffee and jam, to working with US news publishers to turn live-streamed council meetings into news articles.
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The global aftermath of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’
Donald Trump’s bigger-and-stupider-than-expected tariffs have upended the global trading system and are threatening to create a new financial crisis. Bernard Hickey talks with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about the latest day “when the facts changed”, and what might happen next.
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The green shoots and brown roots of our economy
If New Zealand’s economy was a grass paddock, it would be in pretty rough shape. We’re coming out of a pretty bad drought (economic recession) and there’s widespread political disagreement about how to get our worn-out field of brown grass back to the lush green pasture it once was. Bernard…
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Planting the trees we’ll never sit under
For 30 years, a little-known number in government circles has quietly stymied investment for future generations. Set by Treasury, the ‘discount rate’ was once set at 10%, and it meant future benefits and costs were heavily devalued, becoming worth almost nothing after six or seven years. In a...
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New Zealand’s greatest invention: a monetary policy framework?
Bernard Hickey chews the monetary policy fat with returning guest Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway. Was inflation targeting (a policy framework first introduced in Aotearoa 35 years ago) actually our greatest invention? Was quantitative easing a success? Is inflation different now? And...
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A handy Primer for the global AI economy
This week we dive deep into the worlds of AI, defence technology businesses and the great technological arms race between China and the US. Bernard is joined by Sean Gourley, a New Zealander who founded US-based tech success story Primer, an AI intelligence company helping governments understand...
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Shock and Orr
Adrian Orr resigned as Reserve Bank Governor this week after 7 years in the job, but three years early, effective immediately and without explanation. Bernard Hickey talks in an emergency edition of When The Facts Change with NZ Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich, an Orr critic, about...
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Mortgage rates, braking and accelerating
Even as New Zealand’s economy was in the depths of a recession, the Reserve Bank kept a firm grip on monetary policy, only easing up in mid-2024. This week, Bernard Hickey sits down with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr to discuss whether the Reserve Bank should be hitting the accelerator…
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The startup savant behind Trade Me and Xero
Described by The Spinoff’s Duncan Greive as “the most important figure in New Zealand technology you’ve never hear of”, Rowan Simpson has had a guiding hand in Aotearoa’s most successful tech companies. His new book “How to be Wrong: a crash course in startup success” shares the close calls and...
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‘Show me the money’: What Kiwi are buying this summer
Retail spending figures from shops, cafes, restaurants, hotels and holiday hotspots over December and January are the ultimate barometer for spending appetites, income levels and general confidence in job security. Kiwibank senior economist Mary Jo Vergara joins Bernard Hickey to discuss a note…
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Rising tides and sinking boats
Free trade agreements are the global political economy’s hottest topics at the moment, especially since a tariff-toting Donald Trump recently argued (to great political success) that the rising tide of global free trade wasn’t lifting all boats. While global economic growth has lifted many out of...
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How do we measure the value of social investment?
Our social welfare system is complicated, expensive - and incredibly necessary. How do we know when it’s working properly? And when it’s not? ImpactLab CEO Maria English joins Bernard to unpack the data and evidence-based metrics they use to assess the “social return on investment” of social...
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Is 2025 the year to thrive?
Last June the economists at Kiwibank published an article titled “Survive ‘til 25”, outlining what they saw as a tough six months ahead for our economy. Well we’ve made it to 2025, but is the economic year ahead going to be about surviving or thriving? Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado joins...
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What austerity actually means
In order to reduce debt, the coalition government wants to cut spending from 34% of GDP down to 30%. In practice, that means cutting spending on people with disabilities, even though those cuts often increase hospital and care costs in the long term. Bernard is joined this week by disability…
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A fast track to cronyism?
Political and economic debates in 2024 were dominated by the Government’s new fast-track legislation, a controversial bill that aims to speed up infrastructure and development, which passed just before Christmas. The debate, and the risks, were summed up in an impassioned plea in parliament by...
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“Tariffs are beautiful. They’ll make us rich”
Donald Trump’s re-election was the defining moment (and the major shock) in the world of politics this year. His proposed tariff regime is set to upend global economics, which he has kicked off by threatening 25% tariffs on America’s two biggest trading partners: Canada and Mexico.
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It’s darkest before the dawn
Finally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand started cutting interest rates this year, having moved before everyone else and stayed higher for longer than everyone else. The economy slumped significantly early in the year, remaining firmly in recession since. By August 14, Adrian Orr felt safe enough...
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What’s on Aotearoa’s shopping list?
Kiwibank senior economist Mary Jo Vergara has dug through card-spending data to find out how retail spending has changed since Covid, and over the last year of high interest rates. Have we collectively tightened the purse strings in response to a cost-of-living crisis? Or are we taking advantage…
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Inside Wellington’s homeless crisis
Homelessness in Aotearoa has hit an all-time high, forcing organisations like Wellington City Mission to adopt innovative new strategies. Wellington City Missioner Murray Edridge joins Bernard Hickey to talk about the scale of the housing crisis in our capital city and how a couple of new...
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Home on the marae
Motueka might appear sleepy and remote to visitors, but like much of Aotearoa, it faces a severe shortage of rental housing—often far pricier than expected. Bernard Hickey sits down with Miriana Stephens to discuss how her iwi is tackling this crisis by building dozens of affordable homes, with…
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The OCR grinch has turned into Father Christmas
In 2022, Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr told Christmas shoppers to “cool your jets”, as the bank scrambled to control inflation by hiking interest rates. This week - now inflation has been beaten back down - he delivered another whopper 50-basis point rate cut in the RBNZ’s latest monetary…
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How fair is our tax system?
Victoria University professor of taxation Lisa Marriott talks to Bernard Hickey about the fundamental flaws at the core of our tax system, how they have produced historic levels of wealth inequality in Aotearoa - and how we can fix them. Lisa is speaking at the Pakukore: Poverty, by Design...
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Behind Porirua’s poverty
For decades, Pat Hanley has been a tireless advocate for the rights of beneficiaries, drawing attention to the persistent challenges they face. In this week’s episode of When the Facts Change, he sits down with Bernard Hickey to unpack the deep-rooted causes of poverty in Porirua. Hanley argues...
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The cost of prison
Our prisons are bursting at the seams. They cost at least $2 billion per year to run – and that’s before we consider the longer-term and wider-reaching costs to our health, education, housing, justice and welfare systems. University of Auckland indigenous studies professor Tracey McIntosh joins...
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How to give employees what they want, when they want it
Fintechs are changing the way we spend and save, but they are also set to change the way we could be paid for work, or more correctly, how workers are paid benefits on the fringes. Bernard Hickey talks to Steven Zinsli, the founder of Extraordinary (formerly HealthNow) about his new payments card...
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An economic spring in our step
The animal spirits of the economy are stirring back to life after a whopper of an interest rate cut - with expectations of one more to come. Bernard Hickey talks with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about how businesses are feeling heading into the Christmas sales season, and what might…
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The hidden battery in your home
What if your hot water cylinder could help solve New Zealand’s energy crisis? And how is an hour of free electricity helping with our notoriously problematic electricity market? Electric Kiwi co-founder and CEO Huia Burt sits down with Bernard Hickey to explore how they are helping New Zealanders...
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Is Nicola Willis cutting costs or cutting growth?
Finance minister Nicola Willis is on a mission to crunch the size of government debt from well over 33% of GDP to under 30% within a few years, as well as fire up growth in an economy experiencing its worst-ever recession per capita. Doing one would be hard, but both at the same time seems a...
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We’re all getting older and something has got to give
As our national population grows older (and the superannuation system becomes increasingly burdened by the growing ranks of retirees), how will the government balance the books? The ratio of tax-paying adults to superannuitants is steadily falling, and raising the age of eligibility for super…
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Gazing into the infrastructure crystal ball
Aotearoa’s biggest problems are largely caused by a lack of infrastructure - housing, transport, water, hospital and education - in the areas that need it most. So how could (or should) we plan the systems that keep our country running? And who is responsible for divining the future to make...
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When the interest rates change
Kiwibank chief executive Steve Jurkovich joins Bernard to discuss the current economic landscape and what’s happening (and likely to happen) with interest rates. Steve also shares his thoughts on the future of Kiwibank, open banking and if he considers possible banking plays by likes of Apple and...
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Navigating our economy forward (by looking in the rear-view mirror)
As recently as late May, the Reserve Bank thought it wouldn't need to cut rates until well into 2025. However, a batch of leading indicators revealed a slump in economic activity through June, and the RBNZ decided to hit the brakes by lowering the official cash rate in its August monetary policy...
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This is Kiwi: Dane and Stacey on choosing adventures over assets
Selling everything and booking one-way tickets to Thailand marked the beginning of an extraordinary life for popular travel vloggers Dane and Stacey. With over 200,000 followers on Instagram and YouTube, the digital nomads have built a thriving business by offering travel tips, guides and an...
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An electrifying plan for Aotearoa
Saul Griffith helped change the world a couple of years ago when he and a couple of "tech bro" mates convinced Joe Biden to rewrite the Democrats’ Green New Deal and pitch it as an Inflation Reduction Act to rewire America’s economy with renewable energy. Saul makes a pitch for Aotearoa to do the...
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This is Kiwi: Jess Hong on chasing dreams as an introvert
Most actors don’t go straight from performing lunchtime school shows to landing the lead role in a big-budget Netflix series, but Jess Hong isn’t most actors. Since being cast as Jin Cheng in the blockbuster sci-fi series 3 Body Problem, life has been a whirlwind for the self-confessed introvert....
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Building better goal posts for emissions accounting
Accountants often have low profiles and their accounts seem merely to keep score on the games of capitalism, but they can sometimes shape capitalism itself - and maybe even the atmosphere. Bernard Hickey talks with Dr Amelia Sharman from the External Reporting Board. Typically an obscure setter…
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This is Kiwi: Taylor Roche on turning obstacles into opportunities
How do you become the most viewed New Zealand artist on TikTok? With over 46 million likes on the platform, Taylor Roche has shown that challenging the status quo and turning obstacles into opportunities can truly pay off. What began as posting funny videos online for fun has evolved into a...
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The lights have switched off at the Consumer Advocacy Council
In 2018, The Consumer Advocacy Council was set up by cabinet in response to a commissioned investigation into the nation’s problematic electricity market. It was designed to act as an independent advocate for residential and small business electricity consumers in Aotearoa. Then came Budget 2024....
About this show
When the Facts Change, Hosted by journalist Bernard Hickey, When the Facts Change is your essential weekly guide to the intersection of economics, business and politics in Aotearoa New Zealand. Presented by The Spinoff.
When the Facts Change is currently on hiatus and is open for sponsorship. For more details, contact [email protected]
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