All Episodes
Astral Codex Ten Podcast — 1000 episodes
Your Book Review: The Book Of Abraham
The AI Superforecasters Are Here
Chip Off The Old Block
The Metaculus Threat To Democracy Index
Should People Avoid Whole-Body Screening Info?
Preliminary Thoughts On The Midjourney Scanner
Waiting For The Miracle
Never Cross a River Four Feet Deep on Average
My AI Opinions
Book Review: The Dialectical Imagination
Use AI This Election
New Paradigms Won't Save You
The Types Of Candidate You Find In The California Gubernatorial Race
The Sigmoids Won't Save You
Nostalgebraist's Hydrogen Jukeboxes
Three Model Organisms For Taste
Contra Everyone On Taste
What Deontological Bars?
Your Attempt To Solve Debate Will Not Work
Links For April 2026
Half A Month Of Consolation Writing Advice
Orban Was Bad, Even Though We Don't Have A Perfect Word For His Badness
Against The Concept Of Telescopic Altruism
A Buddhist Sun Miracle?
How Natural Tradeoff And Failure Components?
Every Debate On Pausing AI
Being John Rawls
Support Your Local Collaborator
Shameless Guesses, Not Hallucinations
Last Rights
SEIU Delenda Est
Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day
"All Lawful Use": Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species
The Pentagon Threatens Anthropic
Malicious Streetlight Effects Vs. "Directional Correctness" - A Semi-Non-Apology
Book Review Contest Rules 2026
Crime As Proxy For Disorder
Record Low Crime Rates Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care
What Happened With Bio Anchors?
Political Backflow From Europe
Links For February 2026
Moltbook: After The First Weekend
Best Of Moltbook
Slightly Against The "Other People's Money" Argument Against Aid
Highlights From The Comments On Scott Adams
The Dilbert Afterlife
Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls
SOTA On Bay Area House Party
The Permanent Emergency
Highlights From The Comments On Boomers
You Have Only X Years To Escape Permanent Moon Ownership
Highlights From The Comments On Vibecession
ACX/Metaculus Prediction Contest 2026
Against Against Boomers
The Pledge
Links For December 2025
Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
The Good News Is That One Side Has Definitively Won The Missing Heritability Debate
Why AI Safety Won't Make America Lose The Race With China
The New AI Consciousness Paper
Suggest Questions For Metaculus/ACX Forecasting Contest
What Happened To SF Homelessness?
In What Sense Is Life Suffering?
The Bloomer's Paradox
Writing For The AIs
Links For October 2025
Model City Monday 10/27/25
Highlights From The Comments On Fatima
Tech PACs Are Closing In On The Almonds
Non-Book Review Contest 2025 Winners
ACX Grants Results 2025
Fascism Can't Mean Both A Specific Ideology And A Legitimate Target
The Fatima Sun Miracle: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Your Review: The Russo-Ukrainian War
Sources Say Bay Area House Party
Your Review: Project Xanadu - The Internet That Might Have Been
Defining Defending Democracy: Contra The Election Winner Argument
Your Review: The Synaptic Plasticity and Memory Hypothesis
Book Review: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
Links For September 2025
Your Review: Participation in Phase I Clinical Pharmaceutical Research
What Is Man, That Thou Art Mindful Of Him?
Open Letter To The NIH
In Search Of AI Psychosis
Your Review: Ollantay
My Responses To Three Concerns From The Embryo Selection Post
Your Review: Dating Men In The Bay Area
In Defense Of The Amyloid Hypothesis
Highlights From The Comments On Liberalism And Communities
Your Review: My Father's Instant Mashed Potatoes
Should Strong Gods Bet On GDP?
Your Review: Joan of Arc
Suddenly, Trait-Based Embryo Selection
My Heart Of Hearts
Your Review: The Astral Codex Ten Commentariat ("Why Do We Suck?")
Apply For An ACX Grant (2025)
Press Any Key For Bay Area House Party
Your Review: Islamic Geometric Patterns In The Metropolitan Museum Of Art
Book Review: Arguments About Aborigines
Your Review: Of Mice, Mechanisms, and Dementia
Practically-A-Book Review: Byrnes on Trance
Now I Really Won That AI Bet
Your Review: School
Highlights From The Comments On Missing Heritability
Links For July 2025
Contra Skolnick On Schizophrenia Microbes
Your Review: Alpha School
Missing Heritability: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Open Questions For Future ACX Grants Rounds
ACX Grants 1-3 Year Updates
The Claude Bliss Attractor
"But" vs. "Yes, But"
If It's Worth Your Time To Lie, It's Worth My Time To Correct It
P-Zombies Would Report Qualia
Choose Nonbook Review Finalists 2025
Bayes For Everyone
Sorry, I Still Think MR Is Wrong About USAID
Moments Of Awakening
Contra MR On Charity Regrants
The Evidence That A Million Americans Died Of COVID
The Other COVID Reckoning
Book Review: Selfish Reasons To Have More Kids
In Search Of /r/petfree
Highlights From The Comments On AI Geoguessr
Testing AI's GeoGuessr Genius
Moldbug Sold Out
The Populist Right Must Own Tariffs
AI Futures: Blogging And AMA
Links For April 2025
Highlights From The Comments On POSIWID
Come On, Obviously The Purpose Of A System Is Not What It Does
My Takeaways From AI 2027
AI 2027 (Full Recording with Footnotes and Text Boxes)
Introducing AI 2027
The Colors Of Her Coat
"Deros And The Ur-Abduction" In Asterisk
More Drowning Children
Misophonia: Beyond Sensory Sensitivity
OpenAI Nonprofit Buyout: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
The Ozempocalypse Is Nigh
What Happened To NAEP Scores?
Everything-Except-Book Review Contest 2025
Why Should Intelligence Be Related To Neuron Count?
Links For February 2025
Why I Am Not A Conflict Theorist
Highlights From The Comments On Tegmark's Mathematical Universe
Lives Of The Rationalist Saints
Tegmark's Mathematical Universe Defeats Most Proofs Of God's Existence
Only About 40% Of The Cruz "Woke Science" Database Is Woke Science
Deliberative Alignment, And The Spec
1DaySooner's Trump II Health Policy Proposals
Money Saved By Canceling Programs Does Not Immediately Flow To The Best Possible Alternative
Model City Monday 2/3/25
Why Recurring Dream Themes?
ACX Survey Results 2025
Everyone's A Based Post-Christian Vitalist Until The Grooming Gangs Show Up
Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest
Links For January 2025
Highlights From The Comments On Lynn And IQ
How To Stop Worrying And Learn To Love Lynn's National IQ Estimates
Bureaucracy Isn't Measured In Bureaucrats
On Priesthoods
It's Still Easier To Imagine The End Of The World Than The End Of Capitalism
H5N1: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Why Worry About Incorrigible Claude?
Claude Fights Back
Links For December 2024
Highlights From The Comments On Prison
Indulge Your Internet Addiction By Reading About Internet Addiction
Friendly And Hostile Analogies For Taste
Book Review: From Bauhaus To Our House
Prison And Crime: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Against The Generalized Anti-Caution Argument
How Did You Do On The AI Art Turing Test?
The Early Christian Strategy
Book Review: The Rise Of Christianity
Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced
Links For November 2024
Mantic Monday: Judgment Day
ACX Endorses Harris, Oliver, Or Stein
The Case Against California Proposition 36
Notes From The Progress Studies Conference
Secrets Of The Median Voter Theorem
ACX Local Voting Guides
Book Review: Deep Utopia
AI Art Turing Test
Book Review Contest 2024 Winners
SB 1047: Our Side Of The Story
Triple Tragedy And Thankful Theory
Against The Cultural Christianity Argument
Preliminary Milei Report Card
How Often Do Men Think About Rome?
Your Book Review: The Ballad of the White Horse
Sakana, Strawberry, and Scary AI
Mantic Monday 9/16/24
Your Book Review: Nine Lives
Links For September 2024
Contra DeBoer On Temporal Copernicanism
Your Book Review: The Pale King
Highlights From The Comments On "Sorry You Feel That Way"
Interview Day At Thiel Capital
Your Book Review: The History of the Rise and Influence of the Spirit of Rationalism in Europe
In Defense Of "I'm Sorry You Feel That Way"
Your Book Review: The Complete Rhyming Dictionary and Poet's Craft Book (1936 Edition)
The Compounding Loophole
Lukianoff And Defining Cancel Culture
Your Book Review: Silver Age Marvel Comics
Why Does Ozempic Cure All Diseases?
Your Book Review: How the War Was Won
Highlights From The Comments On Nietzsche
Altruism And Vitalism As Fellow Travelers
Your Book Review: Two Arms and a Head
Matt Yglesias Considered As The Nietzschean Superman
Your Book Review: Real Raw News
Links for July 2024
Some Practical Considerations Before Descending Into An Orgy Of Vengeance
Your Book Review: How Language Began
Highlights From The Comments On Mentally Ill Homeless People
Consciousness As Recursive Reflections
Your Book Review: The Family That Couldn't Sleep
Lifeboat Games And Backscratchers Clubs
Details That You Should Include In Your Article On How We Should Do Something About Mentally Ill Homeless People
Your Book Review: Don Juan
Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden
Your Book Review: Dominion
My 2024 Presidential Debate
Clarification On "Fake Tradition Is Traditional"
Your Book Review: Autobiography Of Yukichi Fukuzawa
Fake Tradition Is Traditional
Failure To Replicate Anti-Vaccine Poll
Nobody Can Make You Feel Genetically Inferior Without Your Consent
Unsong Available In Paperback
Contra Stone On EA
Links for May 2024
A Theoretical "Case Against Education"
What Is Going On In IFS?
Book Review: The Others Within Us
Choose Book Review Finalists 2024
Profile: The Far Out Initiative
Mantic Monday 5/13/24
Highlights From The Comments On Hanson And Health Care
The Emotional Support Animal Racket
Asterisk/Zvi on California's AI Bill
Highlights From The Comments On "The Origin Of Woke"
Book Review: The Origins Of Woke
Response to Hanson On Health Care
Survey Results: PMS Symptoms
Desperately Trying To Fathom The Coffeepocalypse Argument
Contra Hanson On Medical Effectiveness
Ye Olde Bay Area House Party
Updates on Lumina Probiotic
Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate
Links For April 2024
Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024
Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate
In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities
The Mystery Of Internet Survey IQs
In Partial Grudging Defense Of Some Aspects Of Therapy Culture
Verses On Five People Being Killed By A Falling Package Of Foreign Aid
Mantic Monday 3/11/24
Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024 - Call For Organizers
How Should We Think About Race And "Lived Experience"?
ACX Grants Followup Impact Market
Who Predicted 2023?
Book Review Contest Rules 2024
Links For February 2024
Less Utilitarian Than Thou
Who Does Polygenic Selection Help?
Highlights From The Comments On Polyamory
Mantic Monday 2/19/24
X Fact Check: Does Gender Integration Moderate Politics?
Love And Liberty
Sam Altman Wants $7 Trillion
ACX Grants Results 2024
Evolution Explains Polygenic Structure
You Don't Hate Polyamory, You Hate People Who Write Books
It's Fair To Describe Schizophrenia As Probably Mostly Genetic
Seems Like Targeting
Mantic Monday 1/29/24
The Psychopolitics Of Trauma
Some Unintuitive Properties Of Polygenic Disorders
Should The Future Be Human?
Subscrive Drive 2024 + Free Unlocked Posts
Links For January 2024
Against Learning From Dramatic Events
AI Sleeper Agents
Highlights From The Comments On Capitalism & Charity
The Road To Honest AI
Does Capitalism Beat Charity?
Singing The Blues
In The Long Run, We're All Dad
Son Of Bride Of Bay Area House Party
Apply For An ACX Grant (2024)
Defying Cavity: Lantern Bioworks FAQ
Beyond "Abolish The FDA"
Mantic Monday 12/4/23
Links For November 2023
Contra DeBoer On Movement Shell Games
In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruism
God Help Us, Let's Try To Understand AI Monosemanticity
Book Review: I See Satan Fall Like Lightning
Does Anaesthesia Prove Ketamine Placebo?
Followup: Quests And Requests
Hardball Questions For The Next Debate
Highlights From The Comments On Kidney Donation
Quests And Requests
Dictator Book Club: Chavez
Mantic Monday 10/30/23
My Left Kidney
Impact Market Mini-Grants Results
Pause For Thought: The AI Pause Debate
How Are The Gay Younger Brothers Doing?
Links For September 2023
Book Review: The Alexander Romance
Highlights From The Comments On Elon Musk
Book Review Contest 2023 Winners
Book Review: Elon Musk
Highlights From The Comments On Last Week's Model Cities Post
Vote In The 2023 Book Review Contest
Contra Kirkegaard On Evolutionary Definitions Of Mental Illness
Model City Monday 9/4/23: California Dreamin'
My Presidential Platform
Your Book Review: Zuozhuan
Here's Why Automaticity Is Real Actually
Highlights From The Comments On Fetishes
Mantic Monday 8/28/23
Your Book Review: Why Nations Fail
Meetups Everywhere 2023: Times & Places
Highlights From The Comments On Dating Preferences
More Thoughts On Critical Windows
Critical Periods For Language: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
What Can Fetish Research Tell Us About AI?
Your Book Review: The Mind Of A Bee
Bride Of Bay Area House Party
In Defense Of Describable Dating Preferences
Your Book Review: The Weirdest People in the World
Highlights From The Comments On Putin
Links for August 2023
Your Book Review: The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich
More Memorable Passages From "The Man Without A Face"
Dictator Book Club: Putin
Meetups Everywhere Fall 2023 - Call For Organizers
Mantic Monday 7/31/23: Room Temperature Superforecaster
Your Book Review: On the Marble Cliffs
Bad Definitions Of "Democracy" And "Accountability" Shade Into Totalitarianism
Highlights From The Comments On Social Model Of Disability
We're Not Platonists, We've Just Learned The Bitter Lesson
Your Book Review: The Laws of Trading
Highlights From The Comments On British Economic Decline
The Extinction Tournament
Contra The xAI Alignment Plan
Your Book Review: The Educated Mind
Contra The Social Model Of Disability
Why Match School And Student Rank?
Your Book Review: Secret Government
Links For July 2023
Tales Of Takeover In CCF-World
Your Book Review: Safe Enough?
Is There An Illusion Of Moral Decline?
Sure, Whatever, Let's Try Another Contra Caplan On Mental Illness
Every Flashing Element On Your Site Alienates And Enrages Users
"Through A Glass Darkly" In Asterisk Magazine
Your Book Review: Public Citizens
Davidson On Takeoff Speeds
Your Book Review: Njal's Saga
Your Incentives Are Not The Same As Media Companies'
The Canal Papers
Your Book Review: Man's Search for Meaning
Attempts To Put Statistics In Context, Put Into Context
Highlights From The Comments On The Academic Job Market
Your Book Review: Why Machines Will Never Rule the World
Links For May 2023
All Medications Are Insignificant In The Eyes Of God And Traditional Effect Size Criteria
Are Woo Non-Responders Defective?
Your Book Review: Lying for Money
Hypergamy: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Mantic Monday 5/22/23
Your Book Review: Cities And The Wealth Of Nations/The Question Of Separatism
Why Is The Academic Job Market So Weird?
Galton, Ehrlich, Buck - An exploding generational bomb
Highlights From The Comments On Long COVID And Bisexuality
Highlights From The Comments On Housing Density And Prices
Constitutional AI: RLHF On Steroids
Raise Your Threshold For Accusing People Of Faking Bisexuality
Replication Attempt: Bisexuality And Long COVID
Change My Mind: Density Increases Local But Decreases Global Prices
Highlights From The Comments On Nerds And Hipsters
Mantic Monday 4/24/23
Links For April 2023
Contra Kriss On Nerds And Hipsters
[CLASSIC POST] Book Review: The Hungry Brain
Highlights From The Comments On IRBs
Book Review: From Oversight To Overkill
Spring Meetups Everywhere 2023
Book Review: The Arctic Hysterias
Most Technologies Aren't Races
Highlights From The Comments On Telemedicine Regulations
MR Tries The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy
The Government Is Making Telemedicine Hard And Inconvenient Again
Turing Test
Half An Hour Before Dawn In San Francisco
Why Do Transgender People Report Hypermobile Joints?
Why I Am Not (As Much Of) A Doomer (As Some People)
Links For March 2023
Give Up Seventy Percent Of The Way Through The Hyperstitious Slur Cascade
Issue Two Of Asterisk
Kelly Bets On Civilization
Impact Market Mini-Grants Update
Against Ice Age Civilizations
OpenAI's "Planning For AGI And Beyond"
Highlights From The Comments On Geography Of Madness
Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants
Book Review: The Geography Of Madness
Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023
Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Trying Again On Fideism
Contra Kavanagh On Fideism
Ro-mantic Monday 2/13/23
Links For February 2023
Crowds Are Wise (And One's A Crowd)
Mostly Skeptical Thoughts On The Chatbot Propaganda Apocalypse
Book Review Contest Rules 2023
Response To Alexandros Contra Me On Ivermectin
Mantic Monday 1/30/2023
Janus' Simulators
You Don't Want A Purely Biological, Apolitical Taxonomy Of Mental Disorders
Who Predicted 2022?
ACX Survey Results 2022
Which Political Victories Cause Backlash?
SSC Survey Results On Schooling Types
2023 Subscription Drive + Free Unlocked Posts
Conspiracies of Cognition, Conspiracies Of Emotion
Highlights From The Comments On The Media Very Rarely Lying
Stage 2 Of Prediction Contest
Even More Bay Area House Party
How Do AIs' Political Opinions Change As They Get Smarter And Better-Trained?
Take The 2022 ACX Survey!
Sorry, I Still Think I Am Right About The Media Very Rarely Lying
Links For December 2022
Selection Bias Is A Fact Of Life, Not An Excuse For Rejecting Internet Surveys
[Classic] Abraham Lincoln, Ape-Man
Fact Check: Do All Healthy People Have Mystical Experiences?
The Media Very Rarely Lies
Prediction Market FAQ
2023 Prediction Contest
Perhaps It Is A Bad Thing That The World's Leading AI Companies Cannot Control Their AIs
Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise
Why I'm Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency
Know Your GABA-A Receptor Subunits
Book Review: First Sixth Of Bobos In Paradise
Highlights From The Comments On Semaglutide
Can This AI Save Teenage Spy Alex Rider From A Terrible Fate?
Semaglutidonomics
"Is Wine Fake?" In Asterisk Magazine
Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition
The Psychopharmacology Of The FTX Crash
Contra Resident Contrarian On Unfalsifiable Internal States
Can People Be Honestly Wrong About Their Own Experiences?
Highlights From The Comments On Brain Waves
Highlights From The Comments On My California Ballot
ACX Grants: Project Updates
My California Ballot 2022
Moderation Is Different From Censorship
Highlights From The Comments On Jhanas
Book Review: Malleus Maleficarum
Nick Cammarata On Jhana
Highlights From The Comments On Supplement Labeling
From The Mailbag
Book Review: Rhythms Of The Brain
Another Bay Area House Party
Mantic Monday 10/17/22
Highlights From The Comments On The Central Valley
Links For October 2022
Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day
A Columbian Exchange
[Classic] You're Probably Wondering Why I've Called You Here Today
LA and San Diego Meetups This Weekend
How Trustworthy Are Supplements?
CHAI, Assistance Games, And Fully-Updated Deference
Universe-Hopping Through Substack
Highlights From The Comments On Unpredictable Reward
From Nostradamus To Fukuyama
Highlights From The Comments On Billionaire Replaceability
Why Is The Central Valley So Bad?
Janus' GPT Wrangling
Bay Area Meetups This Weekend (September 17-18 2022)
Unpredictable Reward, Predictable Happiness
I Won My Three Year AI Progress Bet In Three Months
Links For September 2022
Book Review Contest 2022 Winners
The Prophet And Caesar's Wife
Billionaires, Surplus, And Replaceability
Your Book Review: Kora In Hell
Meetups Everywhere 2022: Times & Places
Highlights From The Comments On The Repugnant Conclusion And WWOTF
Effective Altruism As A Tower Of Assumptions
Book Review: What We Owe The Future
Your Book Review: 1587, A Year Of No Significance
Highlights From The Comments On Subcultures
Skills Plateau Because Of Decay And Interference
Meetups Everywhere 2022 - Call For Organizers
Mantic Monday 8/15/22
Your Book Review: God Emperor Of Dune
Will Nonbelievers Really Believe Anything?
A Cyclic Theory Of Subcultures
Why Not Slow AI Progress?
Your Book Review: Exhaustion
Absurdity Bias, Neom Edition
Slightly Against Underpopulation Worries
Model City Monday 8/1/22
Your Book Review: Viral
Links For July '22
Highlights From The Comments On Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism
Forer Statements As Updates And Affirmations
ELK And The Problem Of Truthful AI
Your Book Review: The Society Of The Spectacle
Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism
Your Book Review: The Righteous Mind
Impact Markets: The Annoying Details
Book Review: The Man From The Future
Mantic Monday 7/11/22
Your Book Review: The Outlier
Highlights From The Comments On The 2020 Homicide Spike
Nobody Knows How Well Homework Works
Study: Ritalin Works, But School Isn't Worth Paying Attention To
Your Book Review: The Internationalists
Links For June
Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko
What Caused The 2020 Homicide Spike?
Model City Monday 6/27/22
Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy
Book Review: San Fransicko
Your Book Review: The Future Of Fusion Energy
Peer Review: Nightmares
Mantic Monday 6/13/22
Your Book Review: The Dawn Of Everything
Somewhat Contra Marcus On AI Scaling
Against "There Are Two X-Wing Parties"
Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster?
My Bet: AI Size Solves Flubs
Your Book Review: The Castrato
Birth Order Effects: Nature vs. Nurture
A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows
Your Book Review: The Anti-Politics Machine
In Partial, Grudging Defense Of The Hearing Voices Movement
California Gubernatorial Candidates From Z to Z
Willpower, Human and Machine
Your Book Review: Making Nature
Lavender's Game: Silexan For Anxiety
Link: Troof On Nootropics
Contra Dynomight On Sexy In-Laws
Your Book Review: Consciousness And The Brain
Book Review: The Gervais Principle
Mantic Monday 5/9/22
Berkeley Meetup This Saturday
Why Do People Prefer My Old Blog's Layout To Substack's?
Every Bay Area House Party
Highlights From The Comments On Xi Jinping
Book Review: A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis
Initial Conditions
Contra Hoffman On Vitamin D Dosing
Highlights From The Comments On "Sadly, Porn"
Mantic Monday 4/18/22
Irvine Meetup This Monday
Links For April
Obscure Pregnancy Interventions: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Men Will Literally Have Completely Different Mental Processes Instead Of Going To Therapy
Deceptively Aligned Mesa-Optimizers: It's Not Funny If I Have To Explain It
Spring Meetups In Seventy Cities
Dictator Book Club: Xi Jinping
Highlights From The Comments On Self-Determination
Yudkowsky Contra Christiano On AI Takeoff Speeds
The Low-Hanging Fruit Argument: Models And Predictions
Idol Words
Who Gets Self-Determination?
Information Markets, Decision Markets, Attention Markets, Action Markets
Highlights From The Comments On Justice Creep
Contra Hoel On Aristocratic Tutoring
Mantic Monday 3/21/22
Highlights From The Comments On Zulresso
Justice Creep
Mantic Monday 3/14/22
Ukraine Thoughts And Links
Progesterone Megadoses Might Be A Cheap Zulresso Substitute
Advice For Unwoke Academic?
Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolone!
What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?
Microaddictions
Ukraine Warcasting
Austin Meetup Correction
Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work
Links For February
Play Money And Reputation Systems
Austin Meetup Next Sunday
The Gods Only Have Power Because We Believe In Them
Book Review: Sadly, Porn
Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold
Highlights From The Comments On Motivated Reasoning And Reinforcement Learning
ACX Grants ++: The Second Half
So You Want To Run A Microgrants Program
Heuristics That Almost Always Work
Two Small Corrections And Updates
The Passage Of Polymarket
Book Review Contest Rules 2022
ACX Grants ++: The First Half
Why Do I Suck?
Motivated Reasoning As Mis-applied Reinforcement Learning
Predictions For 2022
Highlights From The Comments On Health Care Systems
Against That Poverty And Infant EEGs Study
Bounded Distrust
Grading My 2021 Predictions
Resubmit And Summarize Your Proposals For Grants ++
Book Review: Which Country Has The World's Best Health Care?
Practically-A-Book Review: Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents
There's A Time For Everyone
Highlights From The Comments On "Don't Look Up"
Movie Review: Don't Look Up
Lewis Carroll Invented Retroactive Public Goods Funding In 1894
Links For December
ACX Grants Results
Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats
Highlights From The Comments On Diseasonality
Addendum To "No Evidence" Post
Addendum To Luvox Post
The FDA Has Punted Decisions About Luvox Prescription To The Deepest Recesses Of The Human Soul
Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You
The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication
Ancient Plagues
Does Georgism Work, Part 3: Can Unimproved Land Value be Accurately Assessed Separately From Buildings?
Does Georgism Work? Part 2: Can Landlords Pass Land Value Tax on to Tenants?
Does Georgism Work? Is Land Really A Big Deal?
Diseasonality
Model City Monday 12/6/21
Book Review: Lifespan
MM: Omicron Variant
[Classic] The Virtue of Silence
Links For November
Pascalian Medicine
Highlights From The Comments On Ivermectin
Highlights From The Comments On The FDA And Paxlovid
When Will The FDA Approve Paxlovid?
Highlights From The Comments On Great Families
Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Mantic Monday 11/15
Apply For An ACX Grant
Highlights From The Comments On Orban
Secrets Of The Great Families
Model City Monday 11/8/21
Dictator Book Club: Orban
Non-Cognitive Skills For Educational Attainment Suggest Benefits Of Mental Illness Genes
Mantic Monday 11/1/21
Jhanas and the Dark Room Problem
Epistemic Minor Leagues
Chilling Effects
Links For October
Highlights From The Comments On Kids And Climate Change
Please Don't Give Up On Having Kids Because Of Climate Change
Highlights From The Comments On Modern Architecture
Book Review: The Scout Mindset
Whither Tartaria?
Links For September
Lisbon Meetup This Saturday
Book Review: The Revolt Of The Public
Book Review: Modi - A Political Biography
Washington DC Meetup This Saturday
The Unbearable Semiheaviness Of Being
Too Good To Check: A Play In Three Acts
New York Meetup This Monday
Boston Meetup This Sunday
Long COVID: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
On Hreha On Behavioral Economics
Berkeley Meetup This Saturday
Highlights From The Comments On Missing School
If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Governor Of California?
Carbon Costs Quantified
Meetups Everywhere 2021: Times And Places
Highlights From The Comments On Aducanumab
Links For August
Kids Can Recover From Missing Even Quite A Lot Of School
Blindness, Schizophrenia, and Autism
Contra Hanania On Partisanship
(Outdoor, Careful) Meetups Everywhere 2021 - Seeking Organizers
Eight Hundred Slightly Poisoned Word Games
Contra Drum On The Fish Oil Story
Details Of The Infant Fish Oil Story
Highlights From The Comments On Acemoglu And AI
Adumbrations Of Aducanumab
What Should We Make Of Sasha Chapin's Claim That Taking LSD Restored His Sense Of Smell After COVID?
Model City Monday 8/2/21
Updated Look At Long-Term AI Risks
When Does Worrying About Things Trade Off Against Worrying About Other Things?
Contra Acemoglu On...Oh God, We're Doing This Again, Aren't We?
Mantic Monday 7/26
Links For July
Things I Learned Writing The Lockdown Post
Highlights From The Comments On "Crazy Like Us"
Peer Review Request: Ketamine
Please Take The Reader Survey
Book Review: Crazy Like Us
Reader Survey Final Check-In
Use Prediction Markets To Fund Investigative Reporting
[Your Book Review] Disunited Nations vs. Dawn Of Eurasia
Book Review Contest: Winners
Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Model City Monday
Highlights From The Comments On "How Asia Works"
Welcome Polygenically Screened Babies
Book Review: How Asia Works
ACX Reader Research Survey: Call For Submissions
Links For June
Mantic Monday 6/21/21
[Classic] FEAR AND LOATHING AT EFFECTIVE ALTRUISM GLOBAL 2017
Vote In The Book Review Contest!
Your Book Review: Plagues And Peoples
On Cerebralab On Nutt/Carhart-Harris On Serotonin
Contra Smith On Jewish Selective Immigration
Your Book Review: How Children Fail
Your Book Review: Down And Out In Paris And London
Drug Users Use A Lot Of Drugs
I Will Not Eat The Bugs
Instead Of Pledging To Change The World, Pledge To Change Prediction Markets
Your Book Review: Where's My Flying Car?
Your Book Review: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
Moral Costs Of Chicken Vs. Beef
What Do Treatments For Accelerated Aging Tell Us About Normal Aging?
Your Book Review: Humankind
Peer Review Request: Depression
Book Review: Arabian Nights
Your Book Review: The Accidental Superpower
Links For May
Highlights From The Comments On Culture Wars
Your Book Review: Addiction By Design
Highlights From The Comments On CBT-i Apps
Welcome To The Terrible World Of Prescription-Only Apps
Theses On The Current Moment
The Rise And Fall Of Online Culture Wars
Your Book Review: The Years Of Lyndon Johnson
Your Book Review: Through The Eye Of A Needle
Why Is It Hard To Acknowledge Preferences?
Book Review: A Brief History Of Neoliberalism
If You Can Be Bad, You Can Also Be Good
Your Book Review: The Wizard And The Prophet
Your Book Review: Double Fold
Nootropics Survey 2020 Results
Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021
Your Book Review: Why Buddhism Is True
Your Book Review: Are We Smart Enough To Know How Smart Animals Are?
Book Review: Global Economic History
No, Really, Why Are So Many Christians In Colombia Converting To Orthodox Judaism?
Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions
Your Book Review: Progress And Poverty
Prospectus On Próspera
[LINK] Unifying Predictive Coding With Backpropagation
Links For April
Your Book Review: On The Natural Faculties
Your Book Review: Order Without Law
Metis And Bodybuilders
Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems
2020 Predictions: Calibration Results
Ambidexterity And Cognitive Closure
[Classic] The Parable Of The Talents
Oh, The Places You'll Go When Trying To Figure Out The Right Dose Of Escitalopram
Toward A Bayesian Theory Of Willpower
More Antifragile, Diversity Libertarianism, And Corporate Censorship
Book Review: Antifragile
Adding My Data Point To The Discussion Of Substack Advances
Book Review: The New Sultan
Sleep Is The Mate Of Death
Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y
Richard Nixon Vs. Cool
[Classic] Contra Grant On Exaggerated Differences
Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality
The Consequences Of Radical Reform
Highlights From The Comments On Class
Highlights From The Comments On March Links
Links For March
Shilling For Big Mitochondria
Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy
Bay Area Plant-Based Meat Reviews
A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word "Class"
Book Review: Fussell On Class
Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions
A Look Down Track B
Ezra Klein On Vetocracy
Highlights From The Comments On Cult Of Smart
Book Review: The Cult Of Smart
COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Coronavirus: Links, Discussion, Open Thread
Statement on New York Times Article
The Precision Of Sensory Evidence
List Of Fictional Cryptocurrencies Banned By The SEC
Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Tradeoffs And Failures
Book Review: Why We're Polarized
Metaculus Monday 2/8/21
Journalism and Legible Expertise
WebMD, And The Tragedy Of Legible Expertise
Book Review Contest Final Rules
Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Dynamical Systems
Riddle Of The Sphinx II: Sustained Release Riddlin'
Metaculus Monday
Weyl Contra Me On Technocracy
Contra Weyl On Technocracy
Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Taxometrics
Know Your Amphetamines
Logistics
You're Probably Wondering Why I've Called You Here Today
Still Alive
[Classic] Social Psychology Is A Flamethrower
[Classic] Lizardman's Constant Is 4%
[Classic] We Are All MsScribe
[Classic] Why Were Early Psychedelicists So Weird?
[Classic] The Influenza Of Evil
[Meetup Audio] Professor Stuart Russell - Human Compatible
[Classic] Reporter Degrees of Freedom
[Classic] How The West Was Won
[Classic] Reverse Voxsplaining: Drugs vs. Chairs
[Classic] A Modern Myth
[Classic] A Theory About Religion
Here Are The Nine Ways The Election Could End
[Classic] The Ideology Is Not The Movement
[Meetup Audio] Jason Crawford: "The Non-Linear Model of Innovation"
[Classic] Weak Men Are Superweapons
[Classic] Skin in the Game
[Meetup Audio] David Friedman: "Legal Systems Very Different from Ours"
[Classic] In The Future, Everyone Will Be Famous To Fifteen People
[Classic] The Lottery of Fascinations
[Meetup Audio] Diana Fleischman: Integrating Evolutionary Psychology and Behaviorism
[Classic] Freedom On The Centralized Web
[Classic] Against Interminable Arguments
[Meetup Audio] Connor Leahy on GPT-3 as an AI Fire Alarm
[Classic] Should You Reverse Any Advice You Hear?
Update on my Situation
[Classic] SSC Gives A Graduation Speech
[Classic] Yes, We Have Noticed The Skulls
NYT Is Threatening My Safety By Revealing My Real Name, So I Am Deleting The Blog
Slightly Skew Systems of Government
Open Thread 156.25 + Signal Boost for Steve Hsu
The Vision of Vilazodone and Vortioxetine
Wordy Wernicke's
[Classic] Proving Too Much
The Obligatory GPT-3 Post
Take the New Nootropics Survey
Problems With Paywalls
Book Review: Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind
Bush Did North Dakota
[Classic] Guided by the Beauty of Our Weapons
Creationism, Unchallenged
"My Immortal" As Alchemical Allegory
Coronalinks 5/18/20: When All You Have Is a Hammer, Everything Starts Looking Like a Dance
[Classic] Cardiologists and Chinese Robbers
Studies on Slack
Book Review Contest: Call for Entries
[Classic] The Goddess of Everything Else
Predictions for 2020
Give Yourself Gout for Fame and Profit
Employer Provided Health Care Delenda Est
The Amish Health Care System
Depression: The Olfactory Perspective
A Failure, but Not of Prediction
Coronalinks 4/10: Second Derivative
2019 Predictions: Calibration Results
Never Tell Me the Odds (Ratio)
SSCJC: Real World Depression Measurement
Book Review: The Precipice
SSC Journal Club: MacIntyre on Cloth Masks
Legal Systems Very Different From Ours, Because I Just Made Them Up
Coronalinks 3/27/20: We're Number One
Face Masks: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
Coronalinks 3/19/20
Book Review: Hoover
For, Then Against, High-Saturated-Fat Diets
[Classic] Book Review: Surfing Uncertainty
Socratic Grilling
Coronavirus: Links, Speculation, Open Thread
Book Review: The Seven Principles for Making Marriage Work
Book Review: Just Giving
Sleep Support: An Individual Randomized Controlled Trial
Addendum to "Targeting Meritocracy"
Confirmation Bias As Misfire of Normal Bayesian Reasoning
Welcome (?), Infowars Readers
Autogenderphilia Is Common and Not Especially Related to Transgender
Suicide Hotspots of the World
Book Review: Human Compatible
Assortative Mating and Autism
Book Review Review: Little Soldiers
SSC Survey Results 2020
Contra Contra Contra Caplan on Psych
2019 Adversarial Collaboration Winners
What Intellectual Progress Did I Make in the 2010s?
A Very Unlikely Chess Game
Hardball Questions for the Next Debate (2020)
Why Doctors Think They're The Best
Please Take the 2020 SSC Survey!
Please Vote for ACC Winner
[ACC Entry] How Much Significance Should We Ascribe to Spiritual Experiences?
[ACC Entry] Should You Have a Merry Christmas?
[ACC Entry] Will Automation Lead to Economic Crisis?
A Maximally Lazy Guide to Giving to Charity in 2019
[ACC Entry] When During Fetal Development Does Abortion Become Morally Wrong?
[ACC Entry] Should Gene Editing Technologies Be Used in Humans?
[ACC Entry] Should We Colonize Space to Mitigate X-Risk?
[ACC Entry] Does Calorie Restriction Slow Aging?
[ACC Entry] Is Eating Meat a Net Harm?
[ACC Entry] What Are the Benefits, Harms, and Ethics of Infant Circumcision?
2019 Adversarial Collaboration Entries
Symptom, Condition, Cause
SSC Meetups Everywhere Retrospective
Mental Mountains
Book Review: All Therapy Books
More Intuition-building on Non-empirical Science: Three Stories
Autism and Intelligence: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
Fish – Now by Prescription [Classic]
Sleep – Now by Prescription [Classic]
Book Review: The Body Keeps the Score
Building Intuitions on Non-empirical Arguments in Science
Samsara
The Life Cycle of Medical Ideas [Classic]
New Atheism: The Godlessness That Failed
Financial Incentives Are Weaker Than Social Incentives but Very Important Anyway
Highlights from the Comments on PNSE
Indian Economic Reform: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
The PNSE Paper
Is Enlightenment Compatible With Sex Scandals?
The Control Group Is Out of Control [Classic]
Book Review: Against the Grain
Beware Isolated Demands for Rigor [Classic]
Too Much Dark Money in Almonds
Against Tulip Subsidies [Classic]
Against Against Pseudoaddiction
SSC Meetups 2019: Times and Places
Lots of People Going Around With Mild Hallucinations All the Time
SSC Journal Club: Relaxed Beliefs Under Psychedelics and the Anarchic Brain
[Partial Retraction] Age Gaps and Birth Order Effects
Book Review: Seeing Like a State [Classic]
List of Passages I Highlighted in My Copy of Ages of Discord
Book Review: Ages of Discord
Meetups Everywhere 2019
Book Review: Reframing Superintelligence
A Thrive/Survive Theory of the Political Spectrum
Don't Fear the Simulators
Maybe Your Zoloft Stopped Working Because a Liver Fluke Tried to Turn Your Nth-Great-Grandmother Into a Zombie
Attempted Replication: Does Beef Jerky Cause Manic Episodes?
Book Review: Secular Cycles
All Debates Are Bravery Debates [Classic]
Against Bravery Debates [Classic]
Highlights from the Comments on Billionaire Philanthropy
Squareallworthy on UBI Plans
Against Against Billionaire Philanthropy
Who By Very Slow Decay [Classic]
The Categories Were Made for Man, Not Man for the Categories [Classic]
Adversarial Collaboration Contest 2019
Book Review: The Electric Kool-aid Acid Test
Know Your Gabapentinoids
Caution on Bias Arguments
Against Lie Inflation
Archipelago and Atomic Communitarianism [Classic]
Do People Like Their Mental Health Care?
Survey Results: Sexual Roles
Gay Rites are Civil Rites
Style Guide: Not Sounding Like an Evil Robot
Some Clarifications on Rationalist Blogging
Editing Unsong
Considerations on Cost Disease [Classic]
More Confounders
If Only Turing Was Alive to See This
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If Kim Jong-un Opened a KFC, Would You Eat There?
Followup on the Baumol Effect: Thanks, O Baumol
Nobody is Perfect Everything is Commensurable [Classic]
Highlights From the Comments on Cultural Evolution
Book Review: Why Are the Prices So D*mn High?
Addendum to "Enormous Nutshell": Competing Selectors
Asymmetric Weapons Gone Bad
List of Passages I Highlighted in My Copy of "The Secret of Our Success"
Book Review: The Secret of Our Success
[Repost] Epistemic Learned Helplessness
In Favor of Niceness, Community, and Civilization [Classic]
Postscript to APA Photo-Essay
The APA Meeting: A Photo-Essay
A Critical Period for Lactation Fetishes
Age Gaps and Birth Order Effects
Is There a Case for Skepticism of Psychedelic Therapy?
5-HTTLPR: A Pointed Review
Little Known Types of Eclipse
Update to Partial Retraction of Animal Value and Neuron Number
Buspirone Shortage in Healthcaristan SSR
1960: The Year the Singularity Was Cancelled
Highlights From the Comments on College Admissions
Increasingly Competitive College Admissions: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
Pain as Active Ingredient in Dating
Short Book Reviews April 2019
Social Censorship: The First Offender Model
Two Wolves and a Sheep
Partial Retraction of Post on Animal Value and Neural Number
Cortical Neuron Number Matches Intuitive Perceptions of Moral Value Across Animals
Neurons and Intelligence: A Birdbrained Perspective
Translating Predictive Coding Into Perceptual Control