All Episodes

US Producer Price Index Cools To 9.8% YoY In July As M2 Money Growth Cools And Recession Probability Increases

What Biden Meant When He Said Zero Inflation (July CPI Rose 0% In July) While REAL Earnings Growth Remains Negative And Rent CPI Soars

US July Inflation Remains Hot (CPI At 8.5% YoY) While Real Weekly Wage Growth Remains Burned (-3.6% YoY) Mortgage Refi Apps Down -82% YoY While Mortgage Purchase Apps Down -19% YoY)

Labor Blues! US Labor Productivity Declines -4.6% In Q2 As Unit Labor Costs Sizzles At 10.8% (Fed Balance Sheet Still Out In Force)

Simply Unaffordable! Gap Between Real Home Price Growth (+11.17% YoY) And Real Wage Growth (-2.15% YoY) Near Highest Since 1988 (REAL 30Y Mortgage Rate Is Now -3.23%)

Weekend Update! US Treasury Yield Curve Inversion Worsens Screaming Impending Recession, 30Y Mortgage Rate Rises To 5.6% (5/1 ARM Rate Rises To 4.21%)

US 10-year Treasury Yield Surges +14 Basis Points As Strange Jobs Report Spurs Fed Rate Hike Fears

‘Sizzling’ US Jobs Data (+528k) Make Case for Bigger Fed Rate Increases (Real Avg Hourly Earnings Growth Sinks To -3.8173 And US Treasury Yield Curve Inverts Further To -37.6, Most Inverted Since 2000

US 30Y Mortgage Rates On Rise Again, Bankrate 30Y Rate UP 92% Under Biden/Powell (US Yield Curve Inversion Worsens, Worst Inversion Since 2000)

Zoltan!

Mr. Freeze! June JOLTs Job Openings Cool -5.4% From May, Home Price Growth Cools As Fed Tightens

Slowing! Home Price Growth Slows To +17.3% YoY As PMI Dropping Towards Contraction And Mortgage Payments Rise 62.3% YoY

Schumer/Manchin Bill With $327 Billion In New Taxes Could Cause Further Recession And Increase Taxes On Americans Making Under $400,000 (US 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Further Inverts)

Misery! PCE Deflator Rises To 6.8% YoY, Highest In 40 Years As Rents, Food, Gasoline Explode In Price (Taylor Rule Suggests Fed O/N Rate Of 17.78%)

Consumer Sentiment Remains Very Depressed (University of Michigan Sentiment Index Rises Slightly To A Depressed 51.5 While Buying Conditions For Housing Rose Slightly To A Depressed 47.0)

Sink The Mortgage Market! US Mortgage Rates Decline To 5.57%

Slipped Into Darkness! The US Economy Slumps Into Recession (GDP Price Growth Worse Than Expected) Stagflation Alert!!

Alarm! US New Home Sales Plunge -17.4% YoY As Fed Tightens Noose And Recession Alarms Sound (Median Prices Fall -9.47% YoY)

Too Much Fed Stimulus! Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Soars At 19.75% YoY In May Thanks To “Slowhand” Powell And The Never-Shrinking Balance Sheet (Red States Soaring Faster Than Blue States)

Recession Warning? Total US Foreclosures Starts UP 440.91% YoY In June (Black Knight)

Inflation And The Fed Ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting (Will Fed 75 BPS Increase Tame Inflation With Inverted Yield Curve? Or Will Biden/Congress Raise Taxes To Fight Inflation?)

Biden’s Tots? US Composite PMI Declines To 47.5 Despite Fed INCREASING Monetary Stimulus

Don’t Listen To The (Central) Bank? The Fed Is Only Tightening Their Target Rate, Not Unwinding Their Enormous Balance Sheet (Eurozone 10Y Yields Tank Nearly 20 Basis Points)

Not Always Sunny! Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Plunges To -12.30 In July As Atlanta Fed GDPNow Retreats To -1.6% For Q2 (Will The Fed Stop QT?)

Fahrenheit 8.6! ECB Raises Main Refinancing Rate For First Time Since 2011 To Fight 8.6% Eurozone Inflation (0.5% Rate Hike Will Hardly Cool Eurozone Inflation, Lagarde!)

Green Sacrifice! Ford Plans Up to 8,000 Job Cuts to Help Fund Investments in EVs (Gasoline Prices UP 55% Under Biden, Food UP 22%, Mortgage Rates UP 87%)

Heartaches By The Number! Mortgage Applications Declined For Third week In A Row, Lowest Level Since 2000 (Applications DOWN -71% Under Biden, Mortgage Rates UP 99%)

NOT Beautiful! US Mortgage Rates Decline Slightly To 5.73% As Fed Raises Rates And Recession Probability Increases (30Y Rate UP 99% Under Biden)

Goin’ Down! US Housing Starts Drop -6.3% YoY In June Thanks To Fed Tightening (1-Unit Starts Dropped -8% MoM, Multifamily Starts Soared 15% MoM)

Doom Loop? The US Dollar Is Booming, But Will A Doom Loop Follow? (US Treasury Yield Curve Inverted At -20 BPS)

Buckaroo! Why The Fed Won’t Be Able To Contain Inflation (Taylor Rule Suggests A Target Rate Of 23.30%, A Bridge Too Far)

Soothe Me? US Q2 Real GDP Sinks To -1.5% As Fed Tightens The Monetary Noose

Simply Unaffordable? Or Is The Fed Killing-off Housing In Its Quest To Crush Inflation? (REAL Home Price Growth Is 12% YoY While REAL Wage Growth Is -3.95% YoY)

Biden’s Limbo Rock! US Consumer Confidence Remains Depressed 51.1 With Inflation Ravaging Households, Housing Sentiment Even Worse At 45 (Biden Approval At 38.1%)

The Core? Flexible Price Inflation Rises To 18.74% While Core Inflation Plunges To 8.40%, “Fats” Waller Backing 75 Basis Point Hike (30Y Mortgage Rate Rises To 5.83%)

Bottle Of Wine? Strong US Dollar And Soaring Inflation Is A Brutal Cocktail For S&P 500 Firms (Will The Fed Pivot To QE Again?)

Fed Fireball? US PPI Final Demand UP +11.3% YoY As Fed May Raise Rates 100 Basis Points At July 27th FOMC Meeting (Stocks In A Sea of Red)

Small Business Optimism Crashes As Inflation Rises To 9.1% YoY (REAL Avg Weekly Earnings Plunge To -4.4% YoY)

Alarm! US Mortgage Purchase Applications Tank 14% From Previous Week As Fed Turns Up Rate Heat (Refi Applications Index Down 80% YoY)

The Shallows! Traders Fully Price 75-Basis-Point Fed Hike at July Meeting As Mortgage Rates Decline Slightly (Fed Fighting Inflation At All Costs!)

The Great Divide … In Affordability! REAL Rents Rising At 6.16% YoY As REAL Hourly Earnings Declining At -3.47% YoY (Growing Homelessness And Rise In Home Sale Transactions)

Hurt So Good? Copper Down -27% Since March 3rd, Bitcoin Down -70% Since Nov ’21 (Is The Fed Killing Off The Economy Or Just Removing “Free Money”?)

Inflation Nation! Fed’s 5Y Forward Breakeven Inflation Rate Plunges To Lowest Of Biden’s Presidency As Fed Hikes Rates (Mortgage Rates Resume Soaring)

Money! About That June Jobs Report (The Fed’s Balance Sheet Still Out In Force!)

Slowing! Jobs Friday Shows Decline In Jobs Added, Real Avg Hourly Earnings Growth Now -3.25% YoY (NOT The Strongest Economy In History!)

US Mortgage Rates Fall To 5.30% As Q2 Real GDP Falls To -1.9% (The Economy Is Falling To Pieces)

Alarm! Challenger Job Cuts Rise 58.8% YoY As Real Wage Growth Is Negative At -3.34% YoY (10Y-2Y Yield Curve SCREAMS Recession)

Sloth-Slow? Fed Expected To Raise Target Rate 75 Basis Points Today As Recession Fears Grow (Trying To Force A Recession??)

Darkness, Darkness! Recession Fears Push Mortgage Rates Down And MBA Purchase/Refi Applications Up (Home Prices Up 20.9% YoY In May)

Bidenflation Strikes! Dow Down 2% As Recession Fears Grow (Check Out M1 Money Growth!)

Ted Day! Spread Between 3M Libor And 3M Treasury Yield Rising Fast (Recession Alert!)

Misdirection On Inflation? US Refineries Near 100% Capacity As Gasoline/Diesel Prices Rise (Fed Hasn’t Removed Monetary Stimulus Yet)

The End? Home Sellers Are Slashing Prices in Sudden Halt to Fed’s Stimulypto Boom (Dallas, Phoenix AZ And Las Vegas NV Seeing >20% Price Cuts)

Wipe Out! Bitcoin Falls Below $20,000 As Crypto Slaughter Continues (Good Luck With Soaring Gasoline And Food Prices On July 4th Weekend!)

Slip, Slidin’ Away! US Q2 Real GDP Descends To -2.1% (Late In The Evening For The Midterm Elections!)

Reversal Of Fortune! Fed Funds Futures Point To Feb ’23 Reversal Of Fed Rate Hikes (Recession Alert!) As Crippling Inflation Soars

S&P 500 Posts Worst First Half Rout Since 1970 As 10Y Treasury Yield Tanks 14 Basis Points (Biden Approval Drops To 38.3% On Rising Inflation, Gasoline Prices)

Slowing! US Personal Consumption Expenditures Drop To 0.2% MoM In May As PCE Deflator Hits 6.3% YoY (US Mortgage Rates Slip to 5.7%, the First Decline in Four Weeks)

Home Listings Surge in Turnabout for Supply-Starved US Market (Are Homeowners Seeing An End To Home Price Growth With Fed Rate Increases??)

Fed Is ‘Just at the Beginning’ of Raising US Rates, Mester Says, MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications Drop -21% WoW As Rates Rise (Mester Channels The Carpenters)

The Thrill Is Gone! Richmond Fed Index Plummets To Covid-era Levels (Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Falls Below 100) As Fed Withdraws Stimulus

How Blue Can You Get? US Pending Home Sales Plunge -12% YoY In May As Fed Cranked-Up Rates (PHS Down 11 Of Last 12 Months)

More On Fed’s Bullard’s “Consumers Healthy” Remark (Consumer Sentiment At Lowest Level Since 1977 While Unemployment Rate At Only 3.6%)

Already Gone! Russia Defaults on Foreign Debt for First Time Since 1918 (Europe Sov Yields UP 10+ BPS)

Alarm! Fed’s Bullard Says US Recession Fears Overblown With Consumers Healthy (My Response In One Chart: REAL Average Wage Growth At -3.34% YoY, Real GDP Growth At … 0%)

Weekend Update! Fed Quantitative Frightening, Growing Recession Likelihood, Mortgage Rates And Gasoline Prices Drop Slightly (Out Of Time?)

Four Horsemen! US Consumer Sentiment Plunges To Lowest Level In History (Home Buying Sentiment Falls To Lowest Since 1982) As Inflation And Home Price Growth Rage

The DC Stomp! New Home Sales Decline -5.9% YoY, Median Price Rises +42% YoY As Fed Stimulypto Still In Place

Sign Of The Times! US Gasoline Prices Decline To $4.94, Diesel Prices Rise To $5.80 As Recession Fears Mount (Reverse Repos At Fed Hit All-time High)

Slippin’ Into Darkness! US Mortgage Rates Decline Slightly As Recession Probability Spikes (Will Fed U-turn From Inflation Fighting To Recession Fighting?)

Hot, Hot, Hot! Mortgage Purchase Applications UP 6% WoW, Refi Applications DOWN -3.1% WoW As Fed Keeps Massive Covid Stimulus In Place (AEI Home Price Index UP 17% YoY In May)

Mr Freeze! Existing Home Sales Drop -3.39% MoM In May, Median Price Growth At 14.8% YoY, Inventory Rises Slightly As Fed Stimulus Continues

Cleveland Ohio: 5 Of The Top 10 Foreclosure Zip Codes As Home Prices Rise 31.5% Since Covid Stimulypto (Q2 Real GDP Falls To 0% Growth)

Bitcoin Rallies To $20k As Yellen Confesses That Inflation Will Remain High For 2022 (So, Monetary Tightening ISN’T The Answer??)

Winter Is Coming 2! Mortgage Rates Hit 6%, Gasoline Prices Hit $5, Inflation Continues To Rage (Taylor Rule Implies 22.10% Target Rate, Only At 1.75%)

Alarm! US Industrial Production Slows To 0.2% In May, Lower Than Expected As Fed Tightens The Monetary Noose (It’s NOT Always Sunny In Philadelphia)

US Recession Odds At 71.7%, NASDAQ Tanks -4%, Fed Dots Plot Sags (I Couldn’t Sleep At All Last Night)

Opening Hell! The Morning After The Fed’s 75 BPS Rate Increase, 10Y Treasury Yield Spikes +11.5 bps, S&P 500 E-mini Down -1.8% (US Housing Starts Plunge -14.4% MoM In May)

Fed Raises Target Rate By 75 Basis Points To 1.75% Despite Negative Q2 GDP Forecast

US Real GDP Sinks To -0.002% As Fed Meets To Discuss Monetary Tightening (Declining Purchasing Power Of US Dollar)

Mortgage Purchase Applications SOAR As Homebuyers Rush To Lock In Mortgage Rate Before The Fed Goes Crazy (Mortgage Rates Rise Above 6%)

Curly’s Oyster Stew? April Home Prices Grow At 20.9% YoY As Fed Is Slow To Remove Massive Monetary Stimulus (But Watch Out!)

Closing Hell! NASDAQ Tanks -4.58%, 10Y Treasury Yield Spikes +22 Basis Points, 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Flattens To Near Zero (MBS Prices Pull A Titanic)

Fear The Talking Fed! US Treasury And MBS Returns Get Hammered As Fed Signals Monetary Tightening (Mortgage Rate Rises And 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Flattens To 8.8 Basis Points)

Weekend Update! US Gasoline Tops $5 (Highest In History), 2Y Treasury Yields Soaring, Mortgage Rates Highest Since 2008 (Inflation Tax Costing Households $5,200 More YoY)

Is The US Heading For Stagflation? Inflation Leading To 10Y Treasury Yield UP 10.1 Bps, NASDAQ DOWN -3.31%, WTI Crude DOWN -2%, Gold UP $12 (On Fears Of Fed Overreaction)

Feelin’ Hot, Hot, Hot! US Inflation Soars To 8.6% YoY For May, Fed Expected To REALLY Start Jacking-up Rates (Mortgage Rates Rise To 5.58%, The Highest Since 2009)

Pennies From The Fed! Who Gained The Most From Fed Stimulypto? The Top 1%, Of Course! (Fed Helps Homeowners, Not Renters)

Moving? Diesel Prices UP 117% Under Biden, Gasoline UP 106%, Natural Gas UP 281%

Fed’s Limbo Rock! Mortgage Purchase Applications Drop 18% WoW (And -21% YoY), Refi Applications Drop 6% WoW (And -75% YoY) How HIGH Can They Go??

Fed Data Shows a Half Century of Moderate Growth in the Fed’s Balance Sheet Through Two World Wars – Then a Seismic Explosion Under Bernanke, Yellen and Powell (Mortgage Rates Rise To Highest Since J

Mr. Freeze! Natural Gas Futures UP 5.53% This Morning (UP 255% Under Biden), Housing Square Footage Goes Up With Fed Easing (Stay Warm!)

Monthly P&I Payment To Purchase Price SOARS As Mortgage Rates AND Home Prices SOAR (Labor Market OVERHEATED As REAL Wage Rate Declines)

How The Fed Killed Mortgage Current Coupon Rate – MBS Index, Back To 1985 Levels (As It Tries To Fight Inflation, A Fight It Can’t Win)

Slowing? US Closed House Sales Down -9.50% YoY As Mortgage Rates Rise On Fed Tightening (New Listings Down -5.7% YoY)

Fear The Talking Fed! Mortgage Payments Rise 43.4% YoY As Fed Jawbones Monetary Tightening (But Still Has Not Shrunk Balance Sheet Yet)

Here Comes The Night! US Inflation Rate Rising, Expected Growth Declining (10Y Treasury Yield Down, US Equities Down >-1%)

Inflation Fightin’ Fed? Fed Can’t Fight Food And Energy Inflation, But They Can Crash The Housing Market (To Tame Total Inflation, Fed Would Have To Raise Rates To 21.38%!)

Still Hot, Hot, Hot! US Existing Home Sales Fall -2.4% MoM In April, But Median Price Is 14.85% YoY And Inventory For Sale Remains MIA (Fed Stimulypto Still Helping Housing Bubble)

Let’s Get Ready To Stumble (Into Recession)! Gasoline Prices UP 89% Under Biden, WTI Crude Oil UP 115% (As REAL Wage Growth Declines)