Forex Daily Podcast - Tuesday, November 29, 2005

The EUR shot up to 1.1902 yesterday. If the EUR is still correcting upward then expect it to fall to the 1.1760 level at least before beginning another move up. If the EUR's correction is complete, then it should not rise above yesterdays high. Look for some sideways trading today. If the EUR rises immediately this morning to about 1.1866 level or above, then it will probably drop 50 to 100 pips. The EUR currently trades at 1.1814. Like we mentioned yesterday, long wicks typically indicated the start and finish of big runs on the GBP. The wick we mentioned yesterday was the start of the trade on the GBP and a long wick was the finish at 1.7341. Look for some sideways trading today. The GBP currently trades at 1.7249. The CHF joined in on the party yesterday. As we wait for the pattern to become clearer, we have a tip similar to the EUR. If the CHF drops immediately this morning to about the 1.3033 level or below, then it should rise 50 to 100 pips. Be patient and wait for extremes. Our computer model shows the JPY upward move potentially complete at 119.91 for at least the next few weeks. This does not mean it will not try to take out the 120 level, we expect it to advance beyond 120, perhaps even today. If it does take out 120, we don't expect it to get much beyond the 120.90 level before beginning move down of 300-600 pips over the next few weeks. The JPY currently trades at 119.20. The CAD came within a few pips of us abandoning our long USD scenario in the mid-term. Although it's looking shaky right now, that is still some hope left for the CAD to fall. We thought the Canadian government toppling might come to our defense, but it's seems to have no effect yet. Regardless, the CAD should rise at least to the 1.1715 to 1.1820 levels before beginning it's next move. The CAD currently trades at 1.1695.