June 2024: crypto insight

In May 2024, the cryptocurrency market saw a significant surge, primarily driven by substantial growth in Ether. This shift has led to changes in market dynamics, including a decline in Bitcoin's market cap dominance and increased interest in riskier assets. Both Bitcoin and Ether have been on upward price trends since November 2022, although these trends are not guaranteed to continue indefinitely. Additionally, recent developments such as regulatory changes and industry acquisitions are poised to impact the market's future trajectory.Thanks for reading Crypto Njal’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.Crypto capIn May 2024, the total cryptocurrency market cap surged by $276 billion, marking a 12.7% increase. Most of this growth was driven by Ether, which saw a substantial rise of 22.8%. Consequently, Bitcoin's market cap dominance fell by 1.1% to 54.2%, while Ether's dominance increased from 16.9% to 18.4%, a rise of 9.0%. This shift indicates a risk-on sentiment, particularly as smaller market cap cryptocurrencies outperformed larger ones and the dominance of stablecoins decreased.Bitcoin, price and annual ROI trendSince November 9, 2022, Bitcoin has been on an upward price trend. However, it is important to recognize that price trends do not last forever. If the current trend continues, there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin's price will be either above or below $69.0k by June 30, 2024, and a 98% probability that the price will fall between $56.1k and $81.8k by that date. Nevertheless, if Bitcoin gains or loses momentum, its price could exceed or fall short of these estimates.One way to measure price momentum is by looking at the annual return on investment (annual ROI), which reflects the ROI if Bitcoin was purchased exactly one year ago. Similar to the price, Bitcoin's annual ROI has been in an upward trend since November 9, 2022. This trend, too, is not guaranteed to last indefinitely. If the annual ROI trend continues, there is a 50% chance that it will be either above or below $102.4k by June 30, 2024, and a 98% probability that it will range between $80.1k and $124.7k by that date. However, as with price momentum, any significant shifts in Bitcoin's market dynamics could lead the annual ROI to deviate from these projections.Ethereum, price and ROI trendSince November 9, 2022, Ether has been on an upward price trend. However, it's important to remember that price trends are not permanent. If this trend continues, there is a 50% chance that Ether's price will be either above or below $3.3k by June 30, 2024, and a 98% probability that the price will fall between $2.5k and $4.1k by that date. If Ether gains or loses momentum, its price could exceed or fall short of these estimates.One way to measure price momentum is by examining the annual return on investment (annual ROI), which considers the ROI if Ether was purchased exactly one year ago. Similar to its price, Ether's annual ROI has been on an upward trend since November 9, 2022. This trend is also not guaranteed to last indefinitely. If the annual ROI trend continues, there is a 50% chance that it will be either above or below $4.8k by June 30, 2024, and a 98% probability that it will range between $3.5k and $6.0k by that date. However, significant changes in Ether's market dynamics could cause the annual ROI to deviate from these projections.Crypto Market NewsHere are the key crypto news items in June 2024:* Ether ETF ApprovalThe SEC approved a rule change allowing ether ETFs to trade in the U.S., a major milestone for the crypto industry. This paves the way for institutional investors to gain exposure to ether through regulated vehicles, potentially driving further adoption and investment in ether and other altcoins.* Miner Selling PressureAs bitcoin's mining difficulty increases and profitability declines, miners may be forced to sell portions of their bitcoin holdings to maintain cash flow. This potential selling pressure from miners could weigh on bitcoin's price performance in June.SummaryIn May 2024, the cryptocurrency market experienced a substantial surge, propelled by Ether's significant growth, leading to shifts in market dynamics and a decline in Bitcoin's dominance. Both Bitcoin and Ether have been on upward price trends since November 2022, though their trajectories are uncertain. Recent regulatory approvals and industry acquisitions suggest potential future impacts on the market.Thank you for reading Crypto Njal’s Substack. This post is public so feel free to share it. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cryptonjal.substack.com