General Offensive - General Uprising

There are definitely British monarchs about whom I know a great deal. I once spent a great deal of time with King Charles I’s encrypted correspondence with Queen Henrietta Maria, for instance, and that lamented king and martyr had a tremor in his handwriting that reads to my eye like a stammer. I said a few months ago that King Charles was going to advance British interests no end by tucking the Grand Cross of the Order of St Michael and St George into his checked bag. It would not surprise me if President Trump would delight in holding a higher order of chivalry than Ronald Reagan’s, and I’m sure he’d wear the glittery breast badge and neck medal on formal occasions whatever the protocol people said. When President Trump was being rather less charming in his comments on British fighting spirit a few weeks ago, I said that King Charles will have been told to send that GCMG hardware back to Asprey’s. Never mind that, though: I rather relished the thought of doing modern royal commentary, and I don’t imagine I’ll have another chance. A plug for some of my off-podcast work though: I’ve just been on Sky News talking about efforts to recruit people to be Iranian spies on Telegram, and those might actually be Iranian efforts! I’ve got a Chernobyl documentary running on Discovery Channel in the US and on Channel 4 in the UK. I’m also on a rather sharply produced Suez documentary, also on Channel 4. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

It’s been a goal of Russia since the 1980s to peel member states off of NATO, to achieve a favourable correlation of forces against the West. Have the Russians hit the jackpot by peeling off the Big Enchilada? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

You’ll see me pause in this video to check a news feed for current US/Iran negotiation updates. As soon as I pressed ‘stop’ on my video camera, a story popped up saying that Aragchi has left Islamabad. If the ceasefire is indefinite on the American side, and if the Iranians aren’t keen to go into a negotiation that might require significant concessions; why stay?By the time I was done uploading, President Trump had told Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to stay at home (apparently no need to say that JD Vance was staying home). In his call to unofficial White House spokesman Barak Ravid, POTUS said, ‘we have all the cards’, which presumably means that the Strait of Hormuz remains successfully sealed and gasoline will hit a fiver a gallon in America.A week ago I said to keep an eye out for ceasefire violations, and of course they’ve been notable but trivial. Notable in that there doesn’t appear to be an American willingness to start rocketing Iran again; trivial in the sense that nobody appears to notice Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Lebanon firing away like billy-o. As to the Iranians mining Hormuz more? If the Strait is closed, who cares? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

The senior leadership of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards isn’t filled with people who would volunteer to be a pro-American military dictator in Iran, but you know that offers are hitting generals’ inboxes.The key takeaway is that Qalibaf and Aragchi have got a convenient air gap between themselves and the men in charge. It's not a crack, but it does mean that there isn't an easy path to ‘yes’.This confirms that Bibi Netanyahu's bet on hitching his wagon to Donald Trump’s star looks like an increasingly perishable move, particularly as America First is shaping up to fight MAGA for dominance in the Republican Party.Meanwhile, with the Strait closed, this is the best thing POTUS could possibly do to break the world's dependency on the fossils.Also, recording in a hotel room feels kind of inappropriately intimate, but here I am. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Should the US be negotiating with the Speaker of Parliament and the Foreign Minister when they aren’t in charge of much? Should they be the Iranian negotiating team in the first place? I was meant to be talking about Lebanon this evening, but of course it ends up being about Iran. You’ll notice that on at least one occasion I say ‘Iran’ when I mean ‘Lebanon’ in this piece. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

This is a quick upload from T5 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

In Iran the US negotiators will have to be very flexible indeed about the ‘deal’ they agree, because the Iranians won’t be. In Lebanon the mediators (the US) are trying to go from an ambassadorial meeting to a summit instantly, and that will require some real incentives from the Americans. The Lebanese Government (as I’ve already said this week) are not going to be eager to accept an open-ended commitment to go to war with Hizballah.Meanwhile, the US is expressing itself pleased that everyone is complying with their blockade of Iran (which blockade is of course largely enforced by the shipowners’ insurers), which cuts off Iran from all commerce with Russia, China and North Korea, except whatever moves to Iran across their land borders or across the Caspian Sea with … Russia?Why, though, hasn’t ‘decapitation’ defeated Iran or Hizballah? Nor, for that matter Hamas? Why keep trying to achieve strategic effect by killing enemy leadership, if it doesn’t work? Is it because it’s important to be seen to do something? Is it because continuous warfare against an implacable enemy gets votes? Will that make a difference in the Israeli election in the next six months? What about the American election in seven? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Hizballah has already threatened the Lebanese government not to go to these talks in Washington, but apparently there’s enough intestinal fortitude in Beirut to support two ambassadors sitting at a table in Washington. The Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs is trailing more Iran discussions. What’s the difference? One set of negotiations is being run the old fashioned way, and one is being run the New York real estate way. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

The Iranians asked for JD Vance to negotiate with Qalibaf and Aragchi, and President Trump appears to have been happy to send him. We all know that Kushner and Witkoff have failed to extricate America from this phase of the Iran War, but somehow we'll blame the war’s lightweight America-first opponent. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

It’s odd that we know what the Iranians think the ceasefire terms are, the Pakistani mediators know, but the American version of the terms are unclear. We recall that at some point Hamas is going to voluntarily disarm and self-exile from Gaza. Today the Iranians say they won’t even, unless the Israelis leave Hizballah alone as the Americans maybe agreed or maybe didn’t. The Iranians are going to keep building missiles. Does this mean the Israelis are going to do this all over again in the summer?Did Henry Kissinger put up with nonsense like this?! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

I should start calling this the Ludendorff Effect: failing to achieve war aims and continuing to fight in hopes of finding a path to some kind of victory. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Notwithstanding the Secretary of War’s allergy to post-conflict reconstruction, why does he want partners for a bit of rebuilding and a bit of demining? Could it be because the Chinese-instigated Pakistani-brokered ceasefire is basically flimflam, to enable the Iranians to carry on as before, America to extricate and regional partners to deal with a still-extreme Iranian theocracy? Does he want someone else to be left holding the bag?Are these all rhetorical questions? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

The dogged insistence by one of my Israeli national security professional friends that the war aim really was regime change? It’s a bit more understandable now. It’s what Netanyahu briefed to POTUS, and in spite of Ratcliff of the CIA now saying it had been ‘farcical’ and Rubio of Foggy Bottom saying it was ‘b******t’, POTUS went for it. If we’ve avoided a global economic downturn by freezing the war with a bit of a ceasefire, perhaps it will be worth the price of losing the Strait of Hormuz as an international waterway and letting the Iranians charge $2M a bottom to let ships through. The winners in the short term are Israel, who have got a much weaker regional rival. In the medium term, the present Iranian regime appears to be solidly in control even if the IRGC is comparatively more powerful and the Supreme Leader appears to be a bit of a figurehead.Of course the big winners in this are the Reliable Superpower: China. They didn’t start this war, but they appear to have dodged significant economic damage, and will increase their influence in the region at America’s expense. Russia hasn’t done badly, though the sudden popularity of the Ukrainians in the Middle East has got to be a little unsettling to the Kremlin. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

… and economy appear more a tragic failure of diplomacy and less the callous destruction of a rogue country of 93 million?My concept of metastability was articulated in a futures paper I collaborated on for an energy-sector client shortly after returning from my tour on Op TELIC (a tour spent very much in the rear with the gear). In it, I talked about an Iraq on the edge of state failure, in which the state as such no longer existed, and only local economies and security structures supported local life. This is a walk-and-talk in my sports kit, which includes my pretending not to have walked through nettles with bare ankles. Anyone listening to this as a podcast might wonder why I went from speaking to my phone in a confidential tone to shouting over the sound of a waterfall. It’s because I walked over to a waterfall while filming outdoors. Please feel free to feed back whether this sort of film works better / as well as / worse than the pieces to camera I record in my study. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

I wrote this article years ago during a different Gaza war. I wrote it because I thought we leaned far too hard on the idea that war crimes were the problem in war, not that war itself is the problem. This is comparable to the more recent construction that a revised-down definition of genocide made genocide the problem in war, not war itself. Saying that an American attack against Iranian critical national infrastructure is by nature a war crime, isn’t entirely true under the International Law of Armed Conflict as it is currently understood, even in democracies apart from the US. Also, American government behaviour redefines legitimacy in a way that people are rightfully reluctant to accept. Just as the requirement in American constitutional law for Congress to approve war appears now to be all but a dead letter, an understanding that war crimes are crimes appears now to be all but a dead letter. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

I'm not seeking to dispense soft soap; not seeking to alarm; just talking about some support but around decisions on nuclear release.Note: in this video I refer to the Israeli ‘war cabinet’, when I should have said ‘national security cabinet’, an informal name for the Israeli cabinet’s National Security Committee. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Iran learned the power of the Strait of Hormuz in a Tanker War, and the resilience of its people to aerial attack in the War of the Cities. They also learned from their counter-invasion of Iraq (when Saddam Hussein tried to cut his losses and end the Iran-Iraq War) that they could keep punishing an enemy who didn't want to fight anymore. All three of these are relevant as President Trump offers to escalate the Iran War if the Iranians don't open the Strait of Hormuz. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

I do like to answer a subscriber question! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Harold asked a series of questions, and of course I had to answer. Here's my statement of his scenario: the US declares victory: Persia delenda est.what remains is no longer the Iranian state. Missiles striking Israel and the Gulf monarchies are being shot by individual warlords. Israel continues to operate against launchers. Only RMB-denominated cargoes pass Hormuz. Why wouldn't the Iranians stop fighting? How could they go on fighting? Where would they get money to rebuild? I'm sure I left a bunch of unanswered questions, though. I only had 15 minutes! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

31 MEU is steaming a long way, from Okinawa to the Gulf. It's going to take a long time. Is President Trump going to keep the war going that long? Why? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

The Lebanese Army is very likely convinced that it hasn’t got the combat power to push Hizballah around, and perhaps more important that not even Lloyd’s of London could lay off enough insurance to cover the lives of Lebanese Army leaders if they tried. There’s a sort of pretense that Hizballah isn’t effectively a provincial government in Lebanon, and that the ‘real government’ ought to be able to make its writ run in the South against Hizballah’s will. I suppose it’s convenient. This is the second podcast this weekend that I’m making available to people with free subscriptions. I’ve also posted it to Xitter, because that’s where Gary Steinberg asked me the question. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

The spot price of Urea is USD600 a tonne; sulfuric acid is selling at USD169 a tonne. These are high prices, because freighters can’t get through the Strait of Hormuz, which means farmers are lacking fertiliser, and that means lower crop yields next year. Lower yields mean higher prices; the knock-on effects of the war are going to be felt for a while. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

There is a triangle of autocracies which have allied with each other to oppose the West. American national security strategy and national defence strategy has in recent months dictated a pivot away from these confrontations and a retrenchment in the Western Hemisphere. Nonetheless, the US finds itself moving combat power and influence away from two theatres of operation against these powers to commit to a third. This could be a significant dislocation of American power, not so much from the Western Hemisphere, but from relevant theatres of operation in World War 3.0. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

The US went to war in Iran last week without a clear understanding of its war aims or strategic pathways. I’ve characterised this as a divergence between the US and the Israeli approaches to this war: the Israelis are in it to degrade Iranian offensive capability. The Americans are in it for reasons that aren’t entirely clear, and which differ among senior Administration officials. Last Thursday we started to see convergence, not along the lines of a replacement Iranian regime (which both the US and Israel have offered as their desired end-state), but along the lines of giving Iran enough of a kicking that regardless of their intentions, they are incapable of menacing anyone. Speaking loosely, the American President suggested that Iran wouldn’t be a threat for a decade, but that’s hyperbole: like the ‘obliteration’ of Iran’s nuclear programme in 2025, it underestimates Iran’s resilience, particularly the resilience of its ballistic missile production.The British Government was right to expect a more complete explanation of America’s war aims before permitting American forces to fly attack missions from British bases in England and British Indian Ocean Territory. The British Government is now trying to appear decisive by sending the ship we have (HMS Prince of Wales, an aircraft carrier) instead of the ship we needed last week (HMS Dragon, an air defence destroyer) to defend RAF Akrotiri from drone attack. The American president’s response has been … unkind. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

I've been looking all afternoon for a moment to record this. I've had meetings, I've answered questions, I've done interviews. I've realised one minute before air that my headphones were in the car. I've had supper. This morning's wallballs (sets of 20) and deadlifts (sets of 10) have caught up to me. I've abandoned my usual upright posture, and just talked to the phone, but not into the external microphone which is over there on my desk.APOLOGY: The microphone gain was set too low, and this commentary can be difficult to hear. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

If I wanted the Iranian regime to collapse and be replaced by something better, and I was ready to expend blood and treasure to achieve this, and I wanted to make it all happen in a welter of death from above, with aircraft carriers and missiles and bunker-busting gravity bombs…I'd start 10 years ago with the seeds of insurgency, and creating a government-in-waiting, and building slowly, and by now Reza Shah would be sitting on the Peacock Throne swearing in a new democratically elected prime minister.Why hasn't this happened? Because the Iranian state is optimised to prevent exactly this. They're really, really good at repressing dissent and nipping insurgency in the bud.Good thing the Americans and the Israelis aren't actually trying to do that, because they'd be failing.I mean, we'd all cheer at that new democracy with a population of millions shrugging off the fanatical Twelver Shi’a Islamist dogma they've been schooled in from birth. The Iranians deserve freedom and prosperity same as everyone else. But that's not why this is going on. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Also, the Chagos Islands: Hamish Falconer says the deal is paused. Number Ten says it isn't. Right: It isn't paused; it's stalled.Also, most of the viewers of this Substack are American. Is my talk about British policy too much… inside baseball? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

I noticed that Admiral Tony Radakin wasn't saying this. I also notice that neither of them seemed to have a force package in mind, so I’ve suggested one in this morning’s video.I'll note that on Xitter, known for… being Xitter, my thoughts attracted some subtle racism. Somewhere in the Afterlife, Roald Dahl is smiling approvingly and thinking, ‘yes, she is a hook-nosed warmongering old b***h’. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

At about the same time I recorded this, Netanyahu got onto his flight home from Washington. He said, in effect, that President Trump was going to go back to the Iranians with all three Israeli demands: no Iranian nukes, no Iranian ballistic missile production and no Iranian proxies (Hizballah and the Houthis in particular) in the Middle East. President Trump posted to Truth Social that he’s going to get whatever deal with the Iranians that he’s going to get. Because the Iranians have been very clear that they’re only negotiating a freeze on their nuclear programme, Bibi is going to have a bit task to spin this visit as anything other than a disaster. As President Trump sits down with the bright lights of the Board of Peace to fundraise for reconstructing a Hamas-controlled Gaza, this is going to be difficult. Difficult why? Difficult because Netanyahu has to call an election before October, and he’s no longer going to be viewed as the victor over the Iranians (the way he was last Summer), or the victor over Hamas (the way he was last Autumn). As the major defeat of 7 October 2023 gets hung round his neck, he’s going to have a hard time getting enough votes for his own party, never mind forming a coalition. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Witkoff and Kushner are going to Israel for meetings. The Israeli Chief of Staff General Staff is in America for meetings. Open Source sites are marking down every chalk heading into the region, and of course the USS Delbert D Black is steaming around the Red Sea (other ships are available). Subtle it ain't. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Britain’s main export to China is cars, not Scotch whisky. A 5% reduction in China’s tariff on whisky isn’t going to add much to Scotland’s balance of trade with the People’s Republic. Maybe it’ll hit £180M a year? Compare that with more than £5Bn a year in British cars exported to China (and China’s 15% tariff on importing big diesel vehicles like Range Rovers). Starmer was promised visa-free travel in China for UK nationals with no timetable for implementation. Not earth-shaking, because lots of other countries do too. We act as though there has been some sort of chill in UK-China relations because it’s been years since a British Prime Minister has visited. There was something that came up in the intervening period, though, wasn’t there? Something that made travel to China difficult?Completely trivial: China’s tariff on imported British warships is, like China’s tariff on imported Scotch whisky, 5%. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

I’ve been made aware by my social media advisor panel (I have 20something daughters) that Substack does a fairly poor job of creating clips for posting to the socials. The ‘AI’ appears to be particularly good at creating thumbnails in which I’m blinking. I’ve also seen that YouTube shorts based on those clips do very well if I’m in front of a bookcase, less well from my desk in my study. I’m not sure what I’m going to do about this, because I’m not sure I care about how this appears on the Socials or on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Yes, European leaders need to be robust in responding to the American approach to Greenland, but the Governor of California telling the rest of the world not to truckle and bow to the man with the flamethrower is rich. If anyone needs to take a robust line with America’s Chief Magistrate it's the elected representatives of the American people. Gavin Newsom does a good line in snotty posts on Xitter, but if he can't deal with American politics, and needs Europe to put air defence batteries on Greenland to deal with American SOF insertions, his chances of becoming President much less succeeding as President aren't impressive.Meantime, Ukrainians freeze, the USS Abraham Lincoln is steaming towards the Iranians who needed it last week. US policy process isn’t focused; the rest of the world’s can be.I apologised to the producer for nearly swearing. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Completely setting aside the question how you impose a tariff selectively on some EU members (a lot of French wine is going to be entering the USA from Irish ports), and setting aside whether EU states will use the so-called ‘Trade Bazooka’ against America, and setting a side whether King Charles is taking a Grand Cross of the Order of St Michael and St George to Washington with him, and setting aside what more price rises will mean to the American economy, what is the effect of raising tariffs on European goods? Money flowing to China, that's what. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Is the Executive Committee of the Gaza Board of Peace the same as the Founding Executive Committee of the Gaza Board of Peace? Did the White House run the list of names for the Peace Board past the Israelis before announcing the list? If not, why not? Did Steve Witkoff figure that Bibi Netanyahu’s people wouldn’t notice, or was he trying to bounce Israel into accepting yet another version of Hamas rebuilding in Gaza?Actually I don’t answer most of those questions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

With US resources stretched into the previously quiet Caribbean, and Administration attention focused, oddly, on pulling NATO to bits over Greenland; the Iranian protesters weren’t going to get any help. They will take little comfort in the knowledge that the Secretary of Tehran’s Supreme National Security Council is now subject to US sanctions. The Iranian government have received the signal that they’re still untouchable within their own borders (as long as they leave the Israelis be). Sanctions will continue to grind down the Iranian economy, but nobody is offering the Iranian government a deal to stop pursuing their vision of a new Persian Empire. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

I started my day talking about Iran in the pre-dawn. I expected to be asleep by now, and you can see how bloodshot my eyeballs are, but I paused to answer a question from a journalist. I'll leave you to figure out what the question was, but here's what I told him. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

Almost the first thing I ever did on social media was live tweet a lecture by Joe Nye. His concept of 'soft power' was in almost every way brilliant. The name, however is rubbish. It invites us to imagine that enduring cultural power is ineffective, unreliable, or incompatible with combat power. This is the time of year when I come to Windsor Castle. I focus my mind on leadership, and I can't forget the tower up at the top of the hill, which used to house the core of a heavy cavalry unit that controlled the river crossing. There are two barracks in Windsor for modern British Army units: the Coldstream Guards in Victoria Barracks and the Welsh Guards and a squadron of Household Cavalry in Combermere Barracks. The combat power in those lines are integrated with the enduring power of the king. There's nothing soft about that. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

It’s really an excuse to talk about Mao Zedong’s method for waging revolutionary war, which is important because it’s proven effective over the last 100 years or so. Mao used it, Ho used it (which is how I got the name for this short-short podcast series, General Offensive! General Uprising!), and a book about the British Army mocked us for still teaching it in the 1990s as though it should have become unfashionable by then. After watching a first-rate army kicking Hamas to pieces at tremendous cost between 2023 and 2025, it’s significant that Hamas is still operating. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe

This connects to American operations in Venezuela a few days ago; and it connects to the ever-so-slightly surprising American focus on Greenland. I know some of my American friends view the hemispheric sphere of influence as a stepping stone to a future in which the US and China are two superpowers. It will be interesting to see whether you can get there from here.Coming video comments: Why I keep saying that Hamas are Maoists, and why it was a bad idea to call soft power ‘soft power’; because it’s not about squeezable softness. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe