Retire By Investing

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.comWe have an articles section filled with free financial education. Click here to gain accessSpread the Wealth: Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY/RSPSPY is at all-time highs driven largely by the NASDAQ. Both QQQ and QQQE are extended. New positions started here carry higher risk of going underwater on any pullback — waiting for a pullback to the SMA improves the probability significantly.RSP has a lot of rotation building underneath. If tech slows, RSP catches up and the broader market picks up the baton. A breakout in RSP to all-time highs would signal a very strong rally ahead. If it goes sideways through June or July, that just sets up an even bigger move. Structure is intact — nothing to do but watch.QQQ/QQQEBoth extended at all-time highs. No new positions needed here. If already in — ride the wave and let the portfolio sit. For anyone looking to start fresh, wait for a pullback to the 10 or 20 SMA for a much better entry and risk profile.MDY/IWMMDY at all-time highs with a bearish engulfing inside day — some rotation possible. Key level to watch is $677. A break above triggers a retest of recent highs. A break below the candle low signals more downside. Until price breaks the 20 SMA there is nothing else to do.VIXBelow the 10 SMA and below the majority of moving averages. Swing environment remains intact. Safe to hold positions without major whipsaw risk for now.Bottom LineBull market. All-time highs. Do not get bearish until structure breaks. Relax, stay invested, and let rotation do its work. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY/RSPSPY is at all-time highs and above all moving averages. To turn bearish, price would need to break back below 700 and begin making lower highs and lower lows — that hasn’t happened. Don’t overthink it. At all-time highs, markets tend to go higher. People who wait for the pullback that never comes get left behind.RSP hasn’t even reached the upper resistance at 205 yet. Consolidating above the 5 and 10 SMA with rotation happening underneath. Still above moving averages — no reason to be cautious.QQQ/QQQEQQQ is at all-time highs. A sideways consolidation from here is healthy and expected given how extended it is. Unless structure breaks, there is nothing else to do but stay involved.QQQE momentum is shifting. After nearly six months of chop, breaking out of this range sets up a move higher for the rest of the year. A retest is possible but the bias is up.MDY/IWMMDY breaking out of its range. Above 668 the path higher opens up. Still basing but trending in the right direction.IWM knocking on the door of all-time highs — within cents of 279.81. Could pull back slightly, flag, and set up the next move. As long as structure holds, stay invested.VIXBelow the majority of moving averages and continuing to trend lower. Crash talk is noise — the data does not support it. Low and falling volatility means the swing environment remains favorable and long-term positions are not at risk of being whipsawed. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.comWe have an articles section filled with free financial education. Click here to gain accessSpread the Wealth: Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY/RSPSPY is at all-time highs, led by semiconductors. Above all moving averages — being long is the play. Price is the only argument that matters here, and price is going up.RSP basing at the 10 SMA after hitting resistance as expected. A two-day base formed and broke above. The bull case: reclaim 203, push to 205, then break out. As long as RSP holds above its moving averages, the market remains risk-on.QQQ/QQQEQQQ broke to all-time highs — one of the fastest recoveries ever seen. No reason to be on the sidelines. A flag and consolidation here before the next leg would be ideal. If setups are working, play them.QQQE also broke all-time highs and retested. Now sitting at a decision point. A break above 107.50 likely leads higher. Rotation is happening in tech broadly — semiconductors are leading the charge.MDY/IWMMDY broke all-time highs and is retesting. A break above 668 opens the door to more upside. Healthy base forming right at the highs.IWM building a six-bar base — small caps are digesting. A break above 278 would be significant and could trigger an explosive move. Small caps (300M–2B market cap) can see 50–60% moves when they get going. Risk management is critical if playing individual names in this space.VIXSitting at the 200 SMA support zone, rejected prior resistance near the 20 SMA. Volatility looks likely to continue lower from here. Favorable for swing traders. Stay aware — anything can change — but current conditions support staying long and active in setups. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY/RSPSPY is at all-time highs. No resistance above — that’s the key takeaway. All-time highs go higher. If a pullback comes, 697 is the level to watch — hold or reclaim that and the path higher stays intact.RSP is approaching resistance at 205. Could base sideways, retest lower, or push through. This area has been tested twice before with a two-day break and follow-through. Still in play, but be aware resistance is close.Long term view is that this will go higher.QQQ/QQQEQQQ is at all-time highs after a six-month consolidation. That kind of base resolving to the upside typically leads to a stronger, sustained move higher. Retest of 638 is possible — hold that and the setup remains bullish.QQQE met resistance. A consolidation day with MAs catching up before a breakout is the ideal scenario. If it pulls back, watch 105.54 as support. A deeper pullback into 103–104 is also possible before another run at all-time highs.Long term view is that this will go higher.MDY/IWMMDY at all-time highs. Same playbook — retest 657, hold, then break out.IWM same structure. Watch the 270 area on any retest. A pause here is healthy and expected. Nothing broken.Long term view is that this will go higher.VIXBelow all moving averages and trending down — favorable conditions for swing trades. Watch the 22 level. A move above 22 would signal caution, as it opens the door to overnight gap risk in either direction. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.comWe have an articles section filled with free financial education. Click here to gain accessSpread the Wealth: Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY / RSP The SPY experienced a momentum run above key moving averages, but the current area represents significant resistance that has been tested multiple times. The RSP similarly sits in a stubborn resistance zone, having failed the 50 SMA on multiple occasions. The more important question isn’t where price is right now, but where it stabilizes — a pullback that builds a base before heading higher would be the healthiest outcome for both.QQQ / QQQE The QQQ is above all major moving averages, which is a positive technical development, though the current zone presents heavy resistance that will be difficult to break through cleanly. The QQQE is back above the 21 EMA, which is generally a constructive sign, but it previously broke below both the 50 and 200 SMAs — something worth monitoring as the market attempts to consolidate.MDY / IWM Mid-caps (MDY) are facing resistance around the 648 area, with the 200 SMA near 605 acting as a deeper level to watch if price falls back into its prior range. The IWM is considered the healthiest chart among the indexes reviewed, trading above all major moving averages, with 651 identified as the key level to hold on any pullback before a potential base forms and price attempts to break higher.VIX The VIX has dropped below most of its major moving averages, which is generally a positive sign for the trading environment as it reduces the risk of large overnight moves. However, it remains above the 200 SMA, meaning some volatility could still return. A potential gap fill or mean reversion move higher in the VIX would suggest more choppiness ahead before the market finds a more definitive bottom. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY/RSPSPY remains in a downtrend below its declining moving averages, though a loose base has formed over the past two weeks. Price is trading just below the 200-day moving average, with the 50-day SMA descending toward the 673 area. RSP shows a similar but slightly cleaner basing pattern, having reclaimed the 200-day before pulling back. Both indexes are still positioned below their key moving averages.QQQ/QQQEQQQ is forming a short-term base while remaining below its declining moving averages. The pattern has shown little overall change, with price struggling to reclaim important overhead resistance. QQQE mirrors this setup, staying in a weak technical position below its major moving averages.MDY/IWMIWM broke below its 200-day moving average, reclaimed it, and is now forming a modest base with potential to test the 50-day SMA near 257 and a longer-term trendline. MDY displays a cleaner, roughly three-week base, creating a more defined short-term setup compared to the broader market indexes.VIXThe VIX is trading below its 50-day moving average but remains above key longer-term moving averages, keeping volatility elevated. On the weekly chart, it has formed an inside bar, leaving the near-term direction uncertain as it tests the upper end of its recent range. The overall volatility picture has not improved significantly. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.comWe have an articles section filled with free financial education. Click here to gain accessSpread the Wealth: Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY/RSPThe market is in a downtrend and technically in a bear market, marked by a triple top, lower highs, breakdown below key levels, and declining moving averages with repeated retests. Price action is extended, raising the possibility of one more flush lower before any recovery. A bear market rally is expected due to heavy selling, but rallies in bear markets differ from bull market pullbacks. For SPY, potential support levels include the 590s area (based on prior monthly candle congestion turning into support) and the 615-620 zone on the weekly chart. RSP has entered a clear bear market and is aligned with SPY weakness, with most sectors seeing broad selling pressure.QQQ/QQQEQQQ has broken below its 200-day moving average, with a death cross becoming imminent. The structure currently resembles a short-term bear move within what was previously a bull market. Potential downside targets on the monthly chart include the 520s, 540-530 zone, 507-520 area, and a deeper gap-fill scenario down to the 480-490 region. Not all gaps fill, but these levels represent possible areas of interest if selling continues. Overall, the near-term picture remains cautious with limited actionable setups.MDY/IWMMDY has moved below its 200-day moving average and is in a retest phase. This setup could support a bear market rally if a flush lower occurs first, followed by a retest of the 200 SMA. IWM is still holding above its 200-day moving average for now, which is a relative positive, though it may retest the 10, 21, or 50-day moving averages before any further downside. Both mid-cap and small-cap indexes reflect the broader market’s cautious tone.VIXThe weekly VIX chart shows a concerning pattern: an open above a significant range, closing higher, which opens the door for volatility to spike toward 35, 45, 60, or even 80. Multiple moving averages are clumped together and rising, with the 50-day now above the 200-day. Sustained moves above 50 historically lead to large volatility spikes. This setup signals elevated risk across the market. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY/RSPThe market is in a correction, with SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and RSP (equal-weight S&P 500 ETF) trading below declining moving averages. Expect rallies back to shorter-term averages (like the 10, 20, or 50), but the 200-day moving average acts as potential support. A rally could occur, but failure to base and break higher (similar to prior patterns) keeps the outlook bearish unless a reversal forms with a failed downside retest and follow-through.QQQ/QQQETech remains in a bear market, with QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) and QQQE (equal-weight Nasdaq-100 ETF) showing declining trends. A potential death cross looms if the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA, signaling stronger bearish confirmation and warranting staying out of the market entirely at that point.MDY/IWMMDY (S&P MidCap 400 ETF) and IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) are positioned near or at the 200-day moving average, which should provide support and could lead to a rally next week. This makes it a reasonable area for traders to take some calculated risk (though not for going fully long), as the technical setup suggests possible bounces into declining moving averages.VIXVolatility is rising, with moving averages on the VIX trending upward. The picture is not favorable, and a break above 35 could signal a significant event driving VIX toward 66 or higher. For now, holding cash is prudent while observing how volatility evolves. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.comWe have an articles section filled with free financial education. Click here to gain accessSpread the Wealth: Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY/RSPSPY is in a downtrend and has not found a bottom. It has been respecting the 21 EMA for the most part and is near the 200 SMA. A rally into declining moving averages is likely. The trend remains in place until a break above the 50 SMA or 21 EMA occurs with follow-through, potentially forming a higher low. The market is in a range with chop. It is heading toward a correction, and a bear market would be confirmed with a significant break below the 200 SMA. RSP has fallen steeply and sharply lower.QQQ/QQQEQQQ is at the 200 SMA, which has acted as support after being tested multiple times. It remains below the 21 EMA and 50 EMA. QQQE is in a bear market, with tech taking a significant hit. Momentum growth names are accelerating to the downside.MDY/IWMMDY has fallen sharply and is currently at the 150 SMA. It is expected to bounce into declining moving averages. Potential support exists at the 200 SMA and a horizontal trend line. IWM follows a similar corrective pattern.VIXThe VIX has the potential to go much higher. After a recent pullback, it found support in the 20-25 area. It is positioned to go sideways and then either break up or down. Factors like dollar strength suggest it is likely to rise further.Overall takeaway from RC: The market is in a correction phase with bearish undertones across most indices/ETFs discussed, no strong buy setups, high caution advised, and capital preservation prioritized over FOMO-driven participation. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY/RSPThe speaker highlights a bearish shift in SPY, with a close below the key ~675-679 level (previously a line in the sand, alongside ~697) confirming downside momentum. Moving averages are rolling over to the downside, resembling an early breakout in inverse views (like short positions), though not yet a full bear market confirmation. RSP (equal-weight S&P) shows similar weakness, forming what looked like a double top earlier, now trading below the 50-day and 21-day SMAs, signaling caution as downside acceleration could follow. Value stocks (SPYV) had been holding up but are now weakening alongside growth, reinforcing a broad risk-off trend.QQQ/QQQEQQQ is in a clear downtrend, having closed below key levels and showing potential breakout to the downside (with inverse like SQQQ signaling ramps lower if it opens/closes below certain points like ~75-61 equivalents). The speaker notes heavy potential downside ramping from here. QQQE (equal-weight Nasdaq) had been ranging but repeatedly rejected higher levels multiple times (7+ rejections), turning that area into strong resistance, making upside breaks unlikely and supporting the overall bearish Nasdaq/growth outlook.MDY/IWMMid-caps (MDY) and small-caps (IWM) have “fallen off a cliff,” with many stocks dropping below the 50-day SMA, indicating intermediate-term risk-off conditions. Small rallies or green days may occur (similar to up days in bear markets), tempting dip-buying, but the speaker urges caution—true basing requires sustained holding at lows over several days (e.g., multi-day breakouts), not fleeting blips. Without confirmation of stability, these are likely traps in a downtrending environment.VIXThe VIX has been building ominously for 4-5 weeks, with significant tightening followed by a rapid, sustained breakout—resembling pre-crisis patterns (e.g., before the 2025 flash crash) rather than short spikes. It’s already cracked prior highs (~28.99) and sits around ~29.49, with potential targets at 35, 45, 60, or even 65+ in extreme scenarios (though not expecting COVID-like 80s). The speaker views this ramp as a major warning of amplified moves in a volatile bearish setup; high VIX levels could eventually signal buying opportunities for testing risk, but for now, it’s a “scary” picture favoring caution over aggression, as the market sniffs out trouble ahead of news.Overall, the core message is to avoid impulsive dip-buying in this risk-off phase—wait for objective basing and confirmation rather than reacting to temporary green days, as volatility and breakdowns suggest potential for sharper downside. Stay safe and follow your plan. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.comWe have an articles section filled with free financial education. Click here to gain accessSpread the Wealth: Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-generated from the video.SPY/RSPThe speaker sees SPY showing signs of weakness after a failed breakout attempt above key levels (around 697), with price gapping down, failing to hold gains, and trading below declining EMAs. This forms a lower high and indicates underlying distribution, with broader market strength fading (e.g., watchlist stocks dropping from 98 to 31). The bullish thesis holds only above 697; below 675 signals bearish conditions. In contrast, RSP (equal-weight S&P) shows breakout potential tied to rotation into value sectors like energy, metals, biotechs, and defensives (evident in SPYV strength vs. SPYG), but caution remains due to possible distribution even near resistance (around 595-598 area). Overall, growth is out of favor, and caution/protection is advised.QQQ/QQQEQQQ (Nasdaq-100) looks weak technically after breaking above a prior base, failing to follow through, and falling back below key levels (around 615), with no sustained upside momentum. Tech appears vulnerable in the current environment. QQQE (equal-weight Nasdaq) paints a somewhat better relative picture, as certain non-mega-cap or selective stocks show strength and are performing well despite broader weakness. The speaker emphasizes that even in a deteriorating market, individual stocks with relative strength can still be playable—but trading remains highly selective, risky, and environment-dependent. Profits should be taken quickly, and positioning must be cautious with limited exposure.MDY/IWMMDY (S&P MidCap) is holding up relatively well after gapping down but failing at resistance, with the key question being whether it breaks down further or stabilizes. IWM (Russell 2000/small caps) is below certain levels but still holding decently for now, though downside risk persists and a breakdown remains possible. Neither shows strong conviction upward, and the speaker leaves their near-term direction uncertain, to be determined by future price action. Small/mid-caps are not highlighted as leading in the current rotation, which favors other sectors instead.VIXThe VIX has been forming higher lows while its moving averages compress tightly—an unusual degree of compression not seen in a while, signaling building potential for a significant volatility expansion. The speaker has been warning about this setup for weeks, comparing it to past explosive moves (e.g., August 2024, April, and even 2020-like events). If volatility breaks out (likely starting Monday per recent news/war developments), it could drive sharp market moves in either direction, but the speaker leans toward caution, expecting potential significant sell-offs if a big spike occurs. People shouldn’t rush to buy dips in such a scenario, as the market may not support it—downside protection is critical. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

RetireByInvesting Trading Journal – Your Personal Edge, 100% Offline, Zero SubscriptionsDownload LINK.RBI Trading Journal Hello Investors and Traders!Imagine having a full-featured trading journal that feels like a $20–50/month SaaS tool… except it’s completely free, lives entirely in your browser, never phones home, and you own your data forever. That’s RetireByInvesting Trading Journal – a single HTML file packed with everything serious discretionary stock traders actually use every day.Clean, Fast, Mobile-Ready InterfaceDark/light theme, collapsible sidebar, keyboard shortcuts (N = new trade, 1–7 = jump to any page, ? = help), undo/redo, toasts, and responsive design that turns into touch-friendly cards on your phone. No laggy cloud sync nonsense – everything is instant because it’s local.Trade Entry That Matches How You Actually TradeOne modal handles it all: complete round-trips, single BUY/SELL legs, scaled partial exits (tagged “Scaled @ 3R – Runner Active”), and manually flagged open positions. Enter MAE/MFE, entry/exit times (feeds the heatmap), custom labels (breakout, pullback, etc.), rich notes, and – best of all – attach multiple chart screenshots with drag-drop or Ctrl+V paste. Screenshots auto-compress and open in a clean full-screen lightbox with arrow navigation. No more “where did I save that NVDA setup pic?”Position & Risk Discipline Built InExecutions automatically group by ticker + ~7-day window and show as expandable rows. Open positions live in a sidebar widget with avg entry, shares, and cost basis. The position-size calculator appears in four places (quick dashboard widget, full page, settings, everywhere risk matters) and toggles between % of account and fixed-dollar risk – instantly showing shares, $ at risk, total cost, and % exposure. Set a daily loss limit % and get a red banner the moment you breach it. Never guess position size again.Analytics That Actually Help You ImproveDashboard gives you 12 color-coded cards at a glance: win rate, profit factor, expectancy, R:R, payoff ratio, streaks (with 5-win / 3-loss alerts), max drawdown, and more. Equity curve supports all/YTD/3M/1M views + optional 10/20/50/200 SMA overlays with automatic 50-SMA breach warnings. Win/loss doughnut, P&L-by-setup bars, daily/weekly/monthly/yearly breakdowns, and a beautiful day-of-week × time-of-day heatmap that highlights your real edge (and your danger zones).The killer feature? Strategy Audit. It scores every trade’s relative strength against SPY/QQQ/IWM/MDY, checks whether you entered above prior highs, whether the index was above its 21 EMA, and whether you exited prematurely. It then compares win rate when rules were followed vs violated and spits out blunt, actionable recommendations: “Avoid trading when index below 21 EMA,” “Wait for proper breakout confirmation,” etc. This is the accountability most traders pay thousands for coaching to get.Playbook + Reflection That Evolves With YouBuild your personal playbook: document setups with entry/exit rules, risk %, target R, mistakes to avoid, and example chart images. Every card automatically pulls live stats from your actual trades – trade count, win rate, total P&L. Full-text notes search spans everything you’ve ever written. Save common setups as templates for one-click entry. Attach screenshots to remind yourself exactly what the chart looked like.Broker Imports & Exports That Just WorkDrop a CSV from Fidelity Brokeragelink, thinkorswim, IBKR, Schwab, Robinhood, Webull (or generic) – it auto-detects format, matches FIFO, flags open positions, and warns about orphaned sells. Export back out as clean CSV, multi-sheet Excel (trades + summary + by-setup + monthly + winners/losers), polished PDF performance reports, or basic tax summaries.Privacy, Control, No BSNo accounts, no cloud dependency, no usage tracking. Optional beta Google Drive sync if you want multi-device access. Daily JSON auto-backup for peace of mind. If the file gets too big, IndexedDB takes over seamlessly.Traders spend hundreds – sometimes thousands – per year on journal software that does less, locks you in, and sells your data. RetireByInvesting gives you enterprise-grade logging, analytics, risk tools, reflection, and broker integration… for the price of saving one HTML file.Open it once, start logging, and watch your process sharpen. Your future self will thank you. Ready to level up without the subscription trap? Just download, open, and trade like you mean it.We Want Your Feedback!If you guys have any feedback. Please let us know in the comment section below!! Looking forward to hearing from you all! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY/RSPThe speaker provides a bullish outlook on SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and RSP (equal-weighted S&P 500), noting that the market remains near all-time highs with ongoing basing patterns that could allow for a breakout higher. There’s potential for a thrust upward toward 697 level after a four-day base, though a decisive breakthrough may not happen immediately and could require multiple attempts; failure to clear it in the next couple of weeks might lead to a rollover. Overall, the setup appears positive for Monday and suggests a rally is likely, with selective stocks setting up well in a broadly supportive large-cap environment.QQQ/QQEWFor QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) and QQQE (equal-weighted Nasdaq-100 ETF), the analysis highlights a shift from a prior downtrend, with recent strength pushing above the 5 and 10 SMAs as a positive sign. However, significant resistance remains at the 20/21 EMA and especially the 50 SMA, where price has faced rejection despite a near-decisive close over the 21 EMA. The speaker prefers QQQE for its equal-weighting and sees basing with stubborn overhead levels; follow-through on the next trading day (Monday) is hoped for to enable growth/tech stocks to advance meaningfully, though the market remains selective.IWM/MDYIWM (Russell 2000/small-cap ETF) and MDY (S&P MidCap 400 ETF) show constructive basing without major issues, remaining above key moving averages while working through a downtrend line. IWM features a multi-day (one-to-five day) base with potential to break higher, and nothing appears wrong technically in either chart. The speaker views these as supportive for broader market strength, particularly if SPY leads a breakout, positioning small- and mid-caps for upside participation in a less volatile environment.VIXThe VIX (volatility index) presents a concerning picture with persistently elevated levels, having trended mostly above 17 since October and stubbornly refusing to decline meaningfully. The speaker expresses hope for a drop back to the 13 area to allow the market to “chill” with reduced choppiness, as current high volatility has been “killing” many traders. Until volatility eases significantly, the market is likely to stay range-bound or selective, reinforcing the advice to avoid forcing trades in unfavorable conditions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.comWe have an articles section filled with free financial education. Click here to gain accessSpread the Wealth: Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:If you like the video format comment please. Let me know how I can improve so I can help you with your journey. Thanks.This was AI-Generated from the video.SPY/RSPSPY is currently below its 50-day moving average, reflecting weakness largely driven by the underperformance of the Magnificent Seven and tech/growth stocks, which is dragging the index down despite appearances. However, this doesn’t tell the full story, as RSP (the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF) is at all-time highs, meaning broader market participation is strong and the underlying market (when viewed equally across stocks) is actually performing well and above its moving averages. If you’re positioned in the right stocks or sectors outside of heavy tech influence, conditions are favorable, but the cap-weighted SPY masks this rotation and strength in non-mega-cap areas.QQQ/QQEWThe Nasdaq (represented by QQQ) has formed what appears to be a double top pattern and is showing significant weakness, trading below its key moving averages in what the speaker describes as a bear market in tech. This makes it a poor environment for tech or growth stocks, with the chart looking “horrible” and no bounce forthcoming unless relief arrives soon (potentially by Tuesday). The speaker warns that without a rebound, tech could face a rough period ahead, and the overall picture points to avoidance of this area right now.IWM/MDYSmall-caps (IWM) and mid-caps (MDY) are looking solid, with IWM holding up well in a sideways pattern with nothing concerning, and MDY near all-time highs while trending sideways or up. The speaker notes that many of the stocks they’re buying are in the mid-cap space (MDY-related), which is “killing it” for trading opportunities compared to other areas. These indices represent where strength and relative performance currently lie, making mid-caps a preferred area to focus on in the current selective market environment.VIXThe VIX is painting a “very scary” picture, having risen sharply from the 13 level since January and showing elevated volatility that could lead to further downside if not stabilized. The speaker expresses hope for a drop back to 15-17 (or even lower, as seen historically in 2024), but notes uncertainty—if the VIX breaks certain levels (implied around higher readings or failure to contain), it could signal more market downside. A flush lower is possible, but stabilization might prevent worse outcomes, advising caution over the weekend. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:If you like the video format comment please. Let me know how I can improve so I can help you with your journey. Thanks.AI generated from video.SPY/SPYG/SPYVSPY is currently facing a key resistance level after forming a short three-day base, with potential follow-through to the upside on Monday—possibly breaking above, pulling back, and then breaking higher again—to confirm strength toward higher levels overall. However, growth-oriented SPYG remains muted and is trading under declining moving averages in what appears to be an underside retest, with shorter-term averages looking weak and suggesting only short covering rather than robust bullish momentum. In contrast, value-focused SPYV is showing genuine breakout strength, aligning with clear sector rotation into value names (e.g., Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Walmart, Target, Costco), which are driving much of the market’s underlying progress while growth lags. (Not financial advice or stock recommendations for those listed above)QQQ/QQEWQQQ continues to underperform significantly and remains below key moving averages with substantial work needed to reclaim prior levels; would only become more constructive on growth once it reclaims above the 10/21/50 MAs and re-enters a previous range for basing. Similarly, QQEW (equal-weight Nasdaq/growth proxy) is theoretically in a bear market, having failed to decisively break above important resistance zones from last year’s breakout period (September–October), creating the opposite technical setup compared to that prior strong advance and warranting caution for those heavily positioned in growth stocks.IWM/MDYIWM (Russell 2000/small-caps) is performing strongly, having returned above all major moving averages with good recent strength, though it still requires follow-through confirmation (potentially with a breakout, pullback, and retest pattern) to solidify the move. The speaker highlights positive developments in related Russell indices, including IWO (Russell Growth) showing signs of recovery and IWN (Russell Value) “killing it,” reinforcing that small-cap value in particular is participating robustly in the current rotation and supporting the case for a potentially strong upcoming bull phase if momentum continues.VIXThe VIX picture is becoming increasingly concerning, noting a “scary” setup where repeated pushes above certain levels have historically led to volatility ramps, as moving averages are starting to turn up and coil in a way that suggests impending volatility expansion (though timing is uncertain). Unless the VIX drops back below ~15, the cautious stance remains intact, especially over the next 2–3 months; for now, the speaker advises enjoying the current environment but staying vigilant for a shift after this bull phase, as leverage has already been removed in areas like software while volatility coils build. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.comWe have an articles section filled with free financial education. Click here to gain accessSpread the Wealth: Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:If you like the video format comment please. Let me know how I can improve so I can help you with your journey. Thanks.AI-Generated from the VideoSPY SPY has shown another reversal after breaking above all-time highs, retesting, and reclaiming the 9 EMA area, but this has led to increased chop and a “death by a thousand cuts” environment for traders amid broader market weakness. For longer-term investors, the outlook remains bullish as long as price stays above the 100, 150, and 200 SMAs, where the market has historically trended positively without major issues — though corrections can occur, and recent price action near the all-time high (around 697) is critical, with potential for a flush lower if rejected, making risk management key in this uncertain setup.QQQ QQQ hit the anticipated resistance area before pulling back into its prior range, which is concerning as it failed to retest the breakout point from above and instead closed lower after a reversal day — never ideal after a breakout. While still above the 50-period moving average on an intermediate timeframe, there’s risk of short-term weakness, with a small base below that could lead to a flush lower if broken, signaling more downside for tech-heavy names in this momentum-shifting environment.QQEWQQEW mirrors the same problematic picture as QQQ, with downward-pointing moving averages in tech signaling poor momentum. Mean reversion trades may tempt some, but overall caution is warranted coming into the week, with limited constructive price action and a need for the market to rest before any stronger moves.RSP RSP broke above a key area but quickly returned to the range and retested it stubbornly, failing to break out as hoped and showing non-constructive price action that could lead to a retest of lower levels like 194 before any upside. This might flush out players with an undercut, test of the 50-period, and potential base-building in the range before a Feb/March breakout — but for now, the market lacks the strength for clean advances, requiring patience and risk awareness.IWMIWM (along with similar small-cap exposure) is now breaking down below the 21 EMA, a negative development that could lead to a flush toward the 50-period before any retest and base-building. With moving averages starting to point lower, this points to at least one to two weeks of choppy action, reinforcing the need for caution as the broader market digests recent gains without clear constructive momentum.MDY MDY shares a similar breakdown below the 21 EMA, with potential for more downside if it revisits key areas, as moving averages trend lower and signal one or two weeks of chop ahead. Like IWM, this mid-cap exposure reflects broader weakness and the market’s need to rest, with quick shifts possible but chop as the more likely near-term outcome.VIX The VIX is showing concerning signs as its moving averages converge, with volatility now trending above the 5, 9, 21, 50, 100, and 150 periods — and having rejected the 200 area twice, there’s risk of a base break if it closes decisively higher. This could signal a mini-correction (not necessarily a flash crash) rather than calm conditions, advising against aggressive buying into dips while above these levels, as weak stocks could weaken further and trigger emotional selling — track it closely, as it’s a key warning for heightened caution this week. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Spread the Wealth:Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:SPY/QQQRotation is now into bigger/mega caps as earnings season is around the corner. Still constructive action with the QQQ’s building higher lows - both indexes reclaiming moving momentum moving averages. The SPY in the last two days we printed a range with Friday being an inside day that signals consolidation. An inside just signals that there’s a pause in the market, but the next market open will give us the direction of the market.In terms of the QQQs, if we open above the 627 then we can breakout higher.My thesis on the market is that we’re still in a bull market.RSP/QQEWBoth looking constructive here with sector rotation. The QQEW is now at resistance after reclaiming momentum moving averages. Breakout/follow through out of this area will be important for growth stocks to start moving.IWM/MDYConsolidation. We’ve had a run for about 1.5 Months. Things can still consolidate here and be constructive. I think a rest period for the IWM and MDY to go sideways, pull in, and then launch out another leg would be the best case scenario.VIXVIX is now coming down (we’re at 16.09), which is better. Ideally I do not want this to be above 20 when taking new positions, but for now getting under 15 would be the best case scenario.Something to note here is that all of the MA’s on the VIX are starting to come together and if we do start to stabilize above the 200 SMA then that will be a case for extreme volatility. For now it’s a nothing burger. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Spread the Wealth: Join our referral program and earn a free year with Retire By Investing! Share your unique referral link or use the ‘Share’ button on any post to invite friends. Here’s what you can earn:* 5 Referrals: Get a 1-month complimentary subscription ($20 Value)* 10 Referrals: Enjoy a 3-month complimentary subscription ($60 Value)* 15 Referrals: Secure a 12-month complimentary subscription ($200 Value)What’s New:If you like the video format comment please. Let me know how I can improve so I can help you with your journey. Thanks. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

IntroductionInvesting can be daunting for some people. The topic itself is scary because there is a lot of uncertainty, but the majority of our audience is into dollar cost averaging (DCA). In this article you will learn a different way to invest your money by capitalizing on money you have in your employer sponsored plan. If you do not have an employer sponsored plan then it may be a great time to look into it because you may be missing out on potential financial strategies.What are employer sponsored plans?Employer sponsored plans are tax-deferred retirement accounts in the form of a 403b, 401k, or 457. For the sake of this article we will not explain the difference between them, but they do have distinct differences. Pre-tax money is deposited into one of these accounts from your paycheck depending on the percentage contribution you manually set. The capital deposited into this account decreases your gross income for the current tax year. Depending on how much you’ve contributed over the years, you may be able to unlock the ability to loan yourself money from this plan. The ability to do this enables you to make investing and saving easier for you.What do most people do?In a financial crunch most people will take a loan from a bank. Although this is normal for the general public, it may not be as beneficial as you think. When you loan from the bank, you have to pay interest to the bank and other fees associated with the generation of the loan. This is theoretically a wasted use of capital, but is sometimes needed in dire situations. Rates and terms for specific loans are dependent on the institution and are dependent on personal credit scores. Credit scores may be affected if the borrower defaults on the loan, which can lead to other detrimental effects in the future. A borrower may be denied access to capital if they default on a loan and may require consignment requirements or higher rates in the future.The benefits of loaning from yourself.There are more pros than cons when you loan yourself money from your retirement. “Don’t touch your retirement” is what most people will tell you, but we encourage everyone to look into this strategy. Another way of thinking about it is that it is rarely ever a car’s fault for a car crash - it’s the driver. This also applies to finance. We will explore the pros of loaning money from your retirement and why the benefits outweigh the cons of traditional methods.No credit checks* There are no credit checks because this is money you’ve earned from a working wage. Loans from your retirement are considered secured loans because they use your retirement funds as collateral.Interest goes to you* Instead of paying interest to the bank/institution - all of the interest goes to you. In time you will increase the capital in your account, but loaning to yourself allows for no wasted capital. You keep everything in-house. The interest for this loan is usually less than what is offered at a bank/institution, which also helps with payments overtime.You set the loan amount/term* This may vary depending on the institution that holds your retirement, but it is usually a 0-60 month term that will show the amount of payment before accepting. The max amount is dependent on the institution, but it is usually up to $50,000.No Taxes**** Notice that there are asterisks next to the word taxes. If a loan is paid on time then no taxes will take place. If the borrower defaults on the loan then the amount loaned will count towards income, for the year, and will incur taxes. For example if you made 100k for the year, borrow 50k, and default on the loan. You will effectively pay 150k in income tax for that tax year.How you can use this to your advantage.Lump sum at risk price points* Simply put you can’t buy a house in 2008 at the price point that was deep into the recession. This allows you to take advantage as a value investor by setting your risk and capitalizing on opportunities that will possibly not present themselves again in the future. Of course this can be a double edged sword, but this is only to be used if you're an experienced investor that knows their risk management and investment thesis.Flexible Investing/Payments* It allows you to have flexible monthly payments instead of dollar cost averaging. Consistently saving 500 dollars a month for a Roth IRA can be challenging for some people, but if you want to save and have the flexibility then this may give you that option. Of course you can take more or less of an amount, but this should help you either way.ConclusionLoaning from your retirement can be a double edge sword. We understand that there is some risk involved with this strategy, but market conditions may allow you to acquire assets at certain price points. There’s really no point in paying other banks/institutions when you can do everything yourself. Allowing yourself the flexibility to keep your own capital for emergencies, while loaning from yourself, will allow you to keep yourself in the market without ever having to stop annually investing. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comment section below. Take care.Retire By Investing is on a mission to help others increase their free time through financial education. This substack does not provide financial advice of any kind. We do not sell or manage financial investments or vehicles. We are not licensed individuals and are not liable for any financial decisions you make. Please do your own due diligence and consult/seek your financial advisor regarding any decisions. Thank you. Have a great day!Thumbnail Pictures Provided By These Artists on Pexels.* Burak Kebapci* Anthony ShkrabaThanks for reading Retire By Investing! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

IntroductionFor more than half a decade, tech employees have dominated the real estate market by buying homes with asymmetrical returns on their equities. This rapid increase in their net worth allowed them to snowball the majority of their gains to buy other assets that were increasing at a slower pace. Other occupations were no match when it came to purchasing homes because this group of people bought homes in cash. As a result, other occupations were shut out or had to settle for less. To be clear, this is not an article to bash on tech employees - in fact, it’s a learning lesson for majority of our audience because tech employees will be winning in the end.How is it being leveled?Companies are going to be budget conscious when it comes to a recession or global economic downturn. This means that majority of the people in tech may not have a job to sustain a home mortgage (this does not apply if they bought in cash). Tech also can get paid through an “employee stock purchasing program” (ESPP), but the time it takes for their stock to increase may be delayed. Tech will not be able to keep up in the short term because they are usually paid a lower base than healthcare workers. This gives healthcare workers a chance to go into the market and buy a house because they can stomach the payment with a consistent and stable income.But the interest is too highMany people are going to look at the interest and not get into the market, but what is more important is the payment and type of loan. For starters, many will want to be on a fixed rate because it will prevent price fluctuations in payment which increases livelihood through stability. Variable loans will eventually get hard capped, but that is a risk one takes if they decide to go with a variable rate mortgage.If someone decides to buy a house now, they are sacrificing for the future which will allow them to be one step closer to a refinance if rates come down (or be lucky if they keep increasing). This gives a significant advantage because obtaining a house is usually the hard part - especially if tech is in the market.Risk firstPeople may be trying to time the market, but more money has been lost timing the market than having time in the market. What should matter more is how much risk you’re willing to take when you’re buying a house. Are you going to be paycheck to paycheck? Will you be ok if the price of the home decreases in value? Will you be able to save/invest even after buying this house? Many questions need to be answered, but assessing your risk is the most important piece of the puzzle of finance. In a severe market downturn, many people will be stuck with a decision that can hold them back financially for many years. There are golden era times where people can accumulate assets, but a wrong decision can prevent someone from accumulating.What happens when Tech comes back into the picture?When tech finally comes back into the real estate market, they will increase the demand for homes and the playing field will no longer be fair. There is no profession that will be able to beat their asymmetrical gains. The cycle will repeat again and those who are waiting again to buy will not be able to get into the market. Areas that do not have enough supply will heavily increase in price due to demand, and other alternatives will need to be made to live in the designated area you wish to live in.Be proactive. Good luck with everything. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Everyone wants a recessionHindsight bias is always 20/20. Many people who lived through 2008 always say they should have bought more houses/a house during that time because they would be rich. The people that are saying this are definitely not wrong – they would have been rich if they did. Sadly, they didn’t. It’s very easy to point out the past and say exactly what one should have done, but very few understand what makes it possible to even do so.The hardest part is that people want a recession to happen, but when it happens they never act. This is because most people either don’t have a plan or aren’t well versed in risk management to pull the trigger. When maximum pain and fear are in the market, people have a hard time overriding their emotional impulses. Much of this is attributed to recency bias, and temporarily exaggerates the amount of damage being done in a certain period of time.What made 2008 the best era for obtaining wealth?The housing market was unregulated. It was very easy to qualify for a home loan because there wasn’t any checks and balances to prove someone was financially stable to make the payments. Other people who were flipping homes were able to “cash out refinance” (pulling equity from a home without selling it) and snow ball their gains into more projects. As supply started to come off the market, house prices started to increase, and temporarily increased the demand. This started to have a negative domino effect when the fun stopped, and many people were liquidated or caught holding the bag when things started to go south.Some of these people had subprime/adjustable rate mortgages (variable interest loans) because they offered the cheapest amount of interest and allowed the buyer to afford the payments. As the interest rates started to increase, the payments started to increase, and when people started to default on the payments – supply started to come back onto the market. However, what if everyone in the United States defaulted all at once? That’s exactly what happened – a massive supply shock that put all of the homes on fire sale. No buyers. Just empty homes.What is happening with cryptocurrency?You may be wondering where I’m going with this, but if you’ve caught on – congrats! Yes. Cryptocurrency is going to be regulated in the next one to two years and continue to be regulated for decades. This is where the fun starts because people are about to miss the point completely. It’s very easy to look at the crypto market and think Ponzi schemes are everywhere, but they exist in all asset classes. One of the questions you may need to ask yourself is why would something need to be regulated, if at all, if there’s no potential or if it’s a scam. Why would the government go to such lengths to do so? Of course we cannot answer this question for you, but it’s something to think about. As a result there’s a lot of studying one needs to do if they’re unaware of what’s going to happen next.Why we think there’s going to be massive capitulation?One word: Leverage.We mentioned that we would talk about our thesis for a 13.5k Bitcoin price in one our market updates: read that hereInstitutions have more sophisticated tools and money, but they have the same counter-party risk as anyone else. We believe there will be a liquidity crunch because many people are leveraged too much. This is not just in the United States – this is a worldwide problem.From some of the headlines above, you can already see some of these events have played out. Unfortunately, majority of the people that left their crypto on exchanges became the secured creditors for some of these firms. If you are lending Bitcoin out when it is an unregulated asset class – things can definitely go wrong. This is no different than the 2008 lending problem, but when times are good people tend to get greedy.Many people were getting a yield on their cryptocurrency this cycle, but some took this too far on the institutional side. This is not something new in the finance industry – in fact, many of these crypto exchanges were executing something called “fractional reserve Bitcoin.” Fractional reserve is when a bank/institution loans out a significant amount of BTC/money that is deposited to their bank/institution to make money. It looks something like this:This is the start of the problem, but it won’t be the last. Many people will be wiped out when all of this blows over. These are just some of the companies that are trying to make it through, but other institutions are starting to get sweaty palms due to margin calls.Marketcap comparisonThe picture below is outdated since it was in 2020, but that hasn’t stopped assets from growing. The amount of resources will decrease as the global population increases, which is why asset classes are important to hold over the long term.If we take Bitcoin right now, not cryptocurrency, then we can see that it is less than 1 trillion dollars in market cap. To increase the value of an asset by double, the same amount of money has to be invested in the asset. Bitcoin is trading around 19k levels, at the time of writing (7/2/2022), and is around a 400 billion dollar market cap. At 800 Billion it trades at 40k.To give you a comparison of Bitcoin to other asset classes:* Derivatives – 500 Trillion – 1 Quadrillion Market Cap* Real Estate – 250 Trillion Market Cap* Stocks – 115 Trillion Market Cap* Gold – 10 Trillion Market Cap* Bitcoin – 400 Billion Market Cap.* What do you think is easier to move?Is crypto the lottery ticket?Maybe. This industry has the most potential growth.The masses may not take advantage of this period of time that will be coming up, but we hope that everyone can see through the smoke and mirrors and execute their plan flawlessly. Everyone thinks they are late to the party, but the party has only just begun. As the liquidity crunch destroys the market cap for Bitcoin/Crypto, many people will be too fearful to get in at these cheap levels. Once we achieve adoption - money will flow into this space and increase the marketcap exponentially. Just remember that crypto is one area that is globally new to everyone. Many people don’t even understand the industry, but what will happen when they understand it? We can look at multiple areas of technology and see the same human behavior – cell phones, planes, cars, mobile apps, computers, etc. It’s a prime time to understand a technology when the masses do not understand it because it gives you an investors edge by knowing the industry and the value it holds. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

We have an articles section filled with free financial education. Click here to gain accessThis is a simplified version of a very complex topic. What’s written in this article is a very basic understanding to entice you to look deeper into the subject. This isn’t just for this article, but all of the articles that we write on this blog.The Illusion of IndividualismEveryone is looking out for themselves. This is a basic human behavior and there is no shame in that. Everyone thinks that they’re alone on this financial journey, but they’ll soon find out that they’re not. They are part of a bigger picture that’s meant to keep everyone poor while getting richer themselves. Once the game is figured out – it’s all about positioning and managing risk. Emotions prevent people from making financial decisions and keep people from ever investing in the market. Due to recency bias people are unable to ever invest because they are either too risk averse or scared to lose money.The Paradox of Money.The challenge about money is that it’s the same as high blood pressure. You don’t even know you’re dying from high blood pressure or you’re getting poor because it’s a very slow process. Let’s say one million dollars was ever created and that someone wanted to borrow that same one million dollars that was ever created at a 10% interest rate. That means by the next year that same person would owe one million one hundred thousand dollars. If there was only million dollars ever created then how is that one person, who borrowed that money, ever going to pay it back? The answer is simple – they can’t.If they are unable to pay this debt back then what happens is that every single interest injected dollar, into the system, will reprice all asset classes accordingly. We have not accounted government intervention such as injecting money through quantitative easing.The Game of InterestAny loan ever created has an interest rate. Some of these loans include credit cards, home mortgage, student loans, home equity line of credits, and personal loans. The amount of interest that is generated from all of these loans is adding to the balance sheet on a daily basis. As new interest dollars keep flooding the monetary system - again, everything gets repriced accordingly.Anyone paying any interest is participating in the monetary game. They are slowly, but surely, increasing the monetary balance sheet. This also leads to inflation as time goes on and makes it harder for anyone that’s not investing to sustain their living.The Game of InflationInflation is a silent tax that everyonepays. Pre-covid levels of inflation was dependent on where someone lived, but overall on a national level it ranged from 1-3%. If banks during this time offered 0.01% interest rate on all of their accounts, then any savings was being debased by inflation. Why does this matter?The reason this matters is because any money locked into an asset class would have been a better choice - it would have been growing by 1-3% instead of losing by that same amount. Areas like New York and California grew at astronomical rates and at the same time people around the world were losing by that amount of appreciation.So Assets… Why Are They Important?This is the kicker, so focus. Holding assets is the only way that one is going to be ok in the long term. We have talked about interest and inflation and how anyone that is participating in the game through paying interest on any type of debt. If you know that interest causes inflation and inflation will theoretically grow any asset class. Then you must understand that if you buy and hold assets - over time, you will eventually get wealthy.The reason why you need to hold assets is because everyone is going to do the work for you. There are millions of people in America. There are people with student loans, home mortgages, and credit card debt. As they keep paying into the system, you will automatically get rich by default because every single dollar that comes from interest will reprice your assets for the future.To speed that process, you hold assets through debt and pay interest as well. The longer people don’t invest, the more they lose. Assets are scarce - limited amount of equities, land/real estate, gold, and Bitcoin. If all of these asset classes are scarce, and the amount of dollars is infinite through interest and quantitative easing. Then all you have to do is manage risk and wait.This is the Paradox of Money.AffiliationsOur Crypto Custodian.BlockFi - was created to provide credit services to markets with limited access to simple financial products. BlockFi sets itself apart from other crypto service providers by pairing competitive rates with institutional-quality benefits. BlockFi is the only independent lender with institutional backing from investors that include Valar Ventures, Galaxy Digital, Fidelity, Akuna Capital, SoFi, and Coinbase Ventures.Sign up here!NFT PartnerEssential Workers - There’s no substitute for appreciation and gratitude to all the heroes that put their lives on the line to serve the public. See every profession in unique backgrounds, clothing, accessories, and events. Collect your professions while they’re available. We celebrate you and your hard work. Have your livelihood minted.Click Here For More Information!Retire By Investing is on a mission to help others increase their free time through financial education. This substack does not provide financial advice of any kind. We do not sell or manage financial investments or vehicles. We are not licensed individuals and are not liable for any financial decisions you make. Please do your own due diligence and consult/seek your financial advisor regarding any decisions. Thank you. Have a great day! Join us on our journey to help others by subscribing below! If you liked this post from Retire By Investing, why not share it?Thumbnail Pictures Provided By These Artists on Pexels.* Burak Kebapci* Anthony Shkraba This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

We have an articles section filled with free financial education. Click here to gain accessIntroductionHome ownership allows one to have access to certain tax benefits. If you’re thinking that a house can lower your tax bill to some extent – you’re right. Home ownership not only gives you a tax deduction, but it also gives the average investor a way to utilize equity to cover a hefty tax bill rather than being forced to sell off investments. Massive wealth can be accumulated if an investor understands the creativity behind taxes and investment vehicles. In this article you will learn how we snowball our gains and pay minimal taxes. Oh yeah – all of this is legal.Building equity in the house is a priorityAfter two to three years of home ownership – two things may have happened: 1) appreciation of the home value and 2) built-up equity from making payments. Huge opportunities open up once your home value appreciates and you have built up equity. In fact, you can use this equity to cover you tax bill (this will be discussed below). Having built up equity allows the investor to choose whether they want to temporarily take money from their Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) or sell off investments to cover their tax bill.The difference between long term and short term capital gainsThere’s a striking difference between long term capital gains (LTCG) and short term capital gains (STCG) in how they are taxed. Long term capital gains is taxed up to 20%, depending on your Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI). LTCG is any security of commodity that is held for more than 366 days and then sold. Short term capital gains, on the other hand, is added on top of your taxable income and can heavily increase your tax bill. STCG can be taxed up to 37% (yes, 37%!!!). STCG is anything held and then sold at 365 days or less.Loaning against the house to pay taxesIt is important to note that tax bills can be extremely high, and as a result, you may not have the cash on hand to cover the bill. So the predicament is 1) to sell off investments and pay either STCG or LTCG the following year vs. 2) to utilize the equity you’ve built up in your home to pay your tax bill. You can utilize the equity you’ve built up through a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) and using the HELOC money to pay off a high tax bill. This money isn’t free - there’s interest tacked on that you must pay per month, but it could turn out to be significantly less in the long run. In other words, leveraging your home can allow you to pay off your current tax bill while also allowing you to prolong the sale of your investments as STCG. The goal is to get your investments to the point where they qualify as LTCG rather than STCG. Utilizing the HELOC money to pay your current tax bill can buy you the time you need. Allowing investments to qualify for LTCG can keep next year’s tax bill lower than if you had sold the investments as STCG. If you have a strong investment thesis – you can create a rolling LTCG year over year if you dollar cost average into a certain stock for a long period of time. Each year, if you’re investing in one particular stock or index, you’ll be able to sell off a portion and keep rolling your long term capital gains via FIFO (Research FIFO: First in First Out Accounting). Once the snow ball happens, you will be able to keep a fairly low tax bill (through LTCG) in comparison to those who are consistently selling off their assets as STCG to cover their taxes year after year. In the next section you will the difference in a hypothetical tax bill.The tax bill comparison between LTCG and STCGHypothetical Filing Married Filing Joint making 250kHypothetical Filing Single making 250kAffiliationsOur Crypto Custodian.BlockFi - was created to provide credit services to markets with limited access to simple financial products. BlockFi sets itself apart from other crypto service providers by pairing competitive rates with institutional-quality benefits. BlockFi is the only independent lender with institutional backing from investors that include Valar Ventures, Galaxy Digital, Fidelity, Akuna Capital, SoFi, and Coinbase Ventures.Sign up here!NFT PartnerEssential Workers - There’s no substitute for appreciation and gratitude to all the heroes that put their lives on the line to serve the public. See every profession in unique backgrounds, clothing, accessories, and events. Collect your professions while they’re available. We celebrate you and your hard work. Have your livelihood minted.Click Here For More Information!Retire By Investing is on a mission to help others increase their free time through financial education. This substack does not provide financial advice of any kind. We do not sell or manage financial investments or vehicles. We are not licensed individuals and are not liable for any financial decisions you make. Please do your own due diligence and consult/seek your financial advisor regarding any decisions. Thank you. Have a great day! Join us on our journey to help others by subscribing below! If you liked this post from Retire By Investing, why not share it?Thumbnail Pictures Provided By These Artists on Pexels.* Burak Kebapci* Anthony Shkraba This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

RMD, or required minimum distribution, is how the IRS generates taxable income from your hard earned retirement nest egg. You cannot keep your retirement assets untouched indefinitely. The RMD law affects those with retirement accounts, excluding ROTH IRAs. Your RMD is the minimum amount you must withdraw from your account each year. After the SECURE Act (Setting Up Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement) was passed, the RMD age moved from 70.5 years to 72 years of age. Basically if your 72nd birthday is after July 1, 2019 then you don’t have to take your first RMD until April 1 in the year after your 72nd birthday (ain’t that a brain teaser). However, it is not recommended to defer your first RMD to April 1 the following year of your 72nd birthday - for reasons which we will discuss below.What retirement accounts do the RMD rules apply to?* Traditional IRAs* SEP IRAs* SIMPLE IRAs* 401(k) plans* 403(b) plans* 457(b) plans* profit sharing plans* other defined contribution plansWhat are the RMD rules? * You can withdraw more than the minimum required amount. However, the minimum amount must be withdrawn each year by December 31, unless it is the year you turn 72, in which case you don’t have to take your first distribution until April 1 in the subsequent year.* Your withdrawals will be included in your taxable income each year. Your basis after tax contributions in an IRA will not be taxed again, only the capital gains will be taxed (pro-rata rule). * If you do not take any distributions, or if the distributions are not large enough, you may have to pay a 50% excise tax on the amount not distributed as required.How do I calculate the minimum I have to withdraw?Don’t worry, the RMD calculation does not require higher algebra or the utilization of multi-variable vector calculus. In fact, the IRS provides a table called the Uniform Lifetime Table. You take the sum of all your eligible accounts and then divide that number by the value provided on the Uniform Lifetime Table. Let’s break it down: let’s say you are 75 years old, have 1 million dollars in a 401k, 500k in an IRA, and 100k in a ROTH IRA. You’ll see that only the 401k and IRA accounts are eligible in regards to the RMD rules - so we take 1 million plus 500k which equals 1.5 million dollars. We then go to the Uniform Lifetime Table and find that the value provided for a 75 year old is 22.9 (from distribution period column). 1.5 million/22.9 = 65,502.18 which is nearly 4% of the accounts worth. The value provided on the uniform lifetime table continues to increase as your age increases, so a larger and larger percent will dwindle your hard earned savings. So wouldn’t I want to defer taking my first RMD to the year after to let my money grow longer? Most likely not. The reason is you’ll get a harder tax hit on your money if you don’t take your first RMD the same year you turn 72 and instead delay until April 1 the subsequent year. Let’s take a closer look: Say you just turned 72 and you have 1 million dollars in an IRA. Your first distribution needs to be 36,496.35. Your second distribution the year you turn 73 will be about 37,735 (assuming the value of 1 million has not changed). If you delay your first distribution to the subsequent year then you will need to take TWO distributions the same year you turn 73 (which will both contribute to (36,496 + 37,735 = 74,231) taxable income and possibly move you into a higher marginal tax bracket). Basically, those two distributions will be added together and possibly move you into a higher tax bracket. What strategies exist to protect my wealth? Yes - you can convert pre-tax savings to ROTH and pay the taxes now. Once money is in a ROTH you can leave it to grow until you are deceased. However, once you’re over 72 years old, you cannot convert money into a ROTH until AFTER your full required minimum distribution is taken. So I recommend planning early and converting pre-tax money before you reach 72. Converting pre-tax dollars to a ROTH does not affect your Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) used to calculate eligibility to contribute to an IRA or a ROTH IRA - you’ll just have to pay the taxes now, but at least you’ll have more control over your assets when you turn 72. Our Crypto Custodian.BlockFi - was created to provide credit services to markets with limited access to simple financial products. BlockFi sets itself apart from other crypto service providers by pairing competitive rates with institutional-quality benefits. BlockFi is the only independent lender with institutional backing from investors that include Valar Ventures, Galaxy Digital, Fidelity, Akuna Capital, SoFi, and Coinbase Ventures.Sign up here!Retire By Investing is on a mission to help others increase their free time through financial education. This substack does not provide financial advice of any kind. We do not sell or manage financial investments or vehicles. We are not licensed individuals and are not liable for any financial decisions you make. Please do your own due diligence and consult/seek your financial advisor regarding any decisions. Thank you. Have a great day! Join us on our journey to help others by subscribing below! If you liked this post from Retire By Investing, why not share it?Thumbnail Pictures Provided By These Artists on Pexels.* Burak Kebapci* Anthony Shkraba This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Income Bias vs Purchasing PowerPurchasing power is not the same as income. The amount of income one receives for their product or service determines one’s income, but it does not define the amount of wealth they have accumulated. Many people define someone making a decent amount of money by how many figures they make per year. Majority of people, through conversations, will frame upper class as anything more than 250k per year. No one necessarily talks about how many assets they’ve accumulated because net worth is more private than the amount of money one makes per year. We call this the Income Bias because it focuses the attention on how much one should make, but doesn’t talk about the amount of purchasing power one attains from investing and accumulating wealth.It really isn’t about the income.There are about 56.1 million millionaires globally, 22 million millionaires are located in the United States, and 1/3rd of those 22 million millionaires in the US, have never made six-figures in their lifetime. The importance of this research shows that it is not the amount of income, but what an individual does with their money that makes the difference.The amount of money someone makes per year will never translate to how much they will able to make in the future. Income can shrink or expand depending on inflation or deflation, but in an inflation environment, it can shrink one’s lifestyle significantly. Income can allow one to live comfortably, but it will not help them attain anything significant in the long run if they do not understand the concept of purchasing power.So what is purchasing power?Purchasing power is defined as what your dollar is/can be worth in the future. Those who have been investing for the longer term have seen their money grow as assets continue to increase in value. Assets that increase in value are growing the original amount of capital to a higher value to be sold at. If the rate of return is outpacing inflation and more, then they will be able to attain other assets classes such as equities, commodities, cryptocurrency, and real estate. The importance of this concept is vital to attaining any amount of wealth because it allows one to “snowball” once they understand how to use certain asset classes to their advantage.Anyone with a W-2 will eventually get capped on their salary/income. This cap will weigh heavily overtime as asset classes start to grow faster than one earns. A great example of this is the Silicon Valley, also known as the Bay Area, where majority of the homes are over a million dollars. Of course these homes weren’t always worth a million, but homes bought back in the day, have definitely kept up with the amount of purchasing power for those that got in early.Keep it simple.Don’t get sucked into the façade of a high-income lifestyle. It is easy to spend more than you make and live above your means - causing you to accrue debt rather than assets that will appreciate over time. Income is not typically transferred over to any family members and will end when that individual dies. Wealth, however, can be transferred over to family members, and will usually preserve the capital from the original purchase price.Not having any assets right now isn’t a problem. It’s usually the lack of education and execution that will force an individual to become another statistic.  Habitually saving, investing, and lifelong learning can lead the process to attain wealth. So if you haven’t, try to start dabbling in saving, investing, or accruing assets. You don’t have to start big, small steps and changes in your habits can snowball into millions.“The best time to have planted a tree was 20 years ago, the next best time is today” - Confucius“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.” - Charles Dickens from David CopperfieldRetire By Investing is on a mission to help others increase their free time through financial education. This substack does not provide financial advice of any kind. We do not sell or manage financial investments or vehicles. We are not licensed individuals and are not liable for any financial decisions you make. Please do your own due diligence and consult/seek your financial advisor regarding any decisions. Thank you. Have a great day! Join us on our journey to help others by subscribing below! If you liked this post from Retire By Investing, why not share it?Thumbnail Pictures Provided By These Artists on Pexels.* Burak Kebapci* Anthony Shkraba This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

IntroductionOwning a home is one of the biggest milestones for some people. A place to own and call home is something many wish they could do, but are unfortunately not able to. When an opportunity arises, many people think about their life within the home they are buying, but do not think about the financial risk. Majority of the conversations that occur in the workplace, or outings with friends, revolve around a 20% down payment on a mortgage to avoid Private Mortgage Insurance - otherwise known as PMI. Due to hearsay opinions, this concept of 20% down on a house or the “wasted” money on PMI gets thrown around without much thought into the risk part of the decision.Why do people put 20% down on a home?Lender’s (majority are banks) have to protect themselves from taking on a huge mortgage liability. A homebuyer is required to put a minimum down payment of 3.5%. If a homebuyer is only putting 3.5% down then the lender has to finance 96.5% percent of the loan. On a million dollar home, the lender is financing a 965,000 dollar loan.Private Mortgage insurance is a fee that the homebuyer pays just incase the homebuyer defaults on the loan. This extra payment is actually paying for the lender’s cost of the insurance because the bank is assuming majority of the risk. Unfortunately, this extra fee is not considered a write-off during tax time, which most see as wasted money.A 20% down payment is required to remove the monthly fee of Private Mortgage Insurance. This is worth it for some people because it decreases their monthly expenses.Who is taking on Financial Risk?20% Down Payment ScenarioIt is up to the homebuyer to decide what is best for their financial situation. For a million dollar home, one needs 200k to free themselves from PMI. 200k for most people is a hefty amount of money. In comparison to the lender, the lender is actually not taking as much financial risk if the homebuyer does this while depleting their emergency funds. The homebuyer may be putting themselves into financial risk if they decide to empty all of their savings. Loss of a job, unplanned events, or economic downturns can create a stressful living situation if they are not planned for. Any of these situations may also cause the homebuyers to default on the loan and may end up losing all of their capital. If the homebuyer has extra emergency funds, this may be the reason to get rid of PMI, but only if the downside risk is assessed.3.5% Down Payment ScenarioThe same homebuyer with 200k ,who is putting a 35k down payment, is actually at less risk overall, but their monthly payment will be higher than the person putting 20% down. Loss of a job, unplanned events, or economic downturn will not heavily affect the homebuyer who has 165k left in savings. If they default on the loan, the max loss on the home is 35k. The monthly payment will be higher because the PMI will be added until a certain threshold of equity is reached (usually 80% loan to value). Since the bank is taking on the majority of the risk, the consumer has the upper hand if things go south, but may also take a hit on their credit.So which is better?That decision is up to the homebuyer. Everyone has different financial liabilities, but it’s important to weigh the pros and cons of each situation when buying a home. As a rule of thumb, plan for your downside risk first - you already know the best case scenario. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

1.Introduction.What is a Brokerage Account? It is an arrangement where an investor deposits money with a licensed brokerage firm. This firm places trades on behalf of the customer. What are the tax implications of selling investments in a Brokerage Account? When the customer sells an investment, they will need to pay either short term capital gains (income level taxes, see tax brackets - up to 39.6%) or long term capital gains (ranging from 0% to 20% based on taxable income). Capital gains is any profit your original investment has earned. Long term capital gains is any sale that is 366 days or more after the date of the original purchase, any sale that is 365 days or less is considered short-term capital gains.2. So why make my children beneficiaries instead of the primary account owner? Reason #1: Step-up BasisSay the brokerage account owner dies and has listed beneficiaries to inherit the account upon their death. Their beneficiaries will inherit the account and get step-up basis. Step-up basis is when the assets received by the beneficiaries are “stepped-up” to its current market value, tax-free. For example, if the original owner of the account bought Apple Stock for $10 USD/share over a year ago and upon their death Apple Stock is now trading for $170 USD/share, then, the new “stepped-up” cost basis for the beneficiary will be considered at $170 USD/share. What this means is if the beneficiaries sell their Apple inheritance for $170 USD/share they owe zero taxes. If, however, they sell Apple for $180 USD/share then they will owe long term capital gains taxes on only the $10 USD gain/share (because the original purchase was 366 days or more ago).2) Avoiding Probate CourtLet’s take the above example and say the original brokerage account owner did not have any listed beneficiaries. Then that account’s assets will have to go through probate court (if account is worth more than $150k). You can research more about probate court, but it is essentially a long and grueling process (1-2 years) that takes unnecessary money away from the inheritance (for CA: 4% of the first 100k, 3% of the next 100k, and 2% of the next 800k plus attorney fees). That is why it is extremely important to have your beneficiaries listed on all of your accounts. Now compare this to if your children were the primary account owner. You will see that there would be no stepped-up basis and they would owe long term capital gains tax on the Apple Stock originally purchased for $10 USD/share. If they were to sell the Apple Stock at $170 USD/share they would owe at most 20% long term capital gains tax on $160 dollar profit/share ($170 minus $10 = $160). Important Info: Say before the account owner died they gifted their beneficiary all of their apple stock. This would not receive “stepped-up” basis and the original cost basis for the Apple Stock would remain at $10 USD/share. Food for thought: One could gift up to 15k a year (as of 2021) to their parent (or other entrusted family member). Their parent invests that money into a brokerage account they own with the person who supplied the 15k gift as a beneficiary. When that money is inherited in the future, the investments will get a step-up in cost basis. 3. Additional informationConsider setting up a Revocable Trust as the primary account owner. Revocable Trusts can make it much easier to manage your estate upon your death and ensure your assets do not end up going through probate court. Watch for new tax laws. Congress may try to end step-up basis in the future. Make sure to understand estate taxes upon inheritance. Federal estate taxes kick-in on anything over 11.7 million (for 2021) and 12.06 million (for 2022) ranging from 18%-40% (depending on how much over the threshold your estate is). Some states also have estate taxes (California does not!) You would need to compare the burden of estate taxes (brokerage account with beneficiaries) vs. gifting the assets (as discussed above) and make a decision on which strategy is better for you (which results in fewer taxes). Retire By Investing is on a mission to help others increase their free time through financial education. This substack does not provide financial advice of any kind. We do not sell or manage financial investments or vehicles. We are not licensed individuals and are not liable for any financial decisions you make. Please do your own due diligence and consult/seek your financial advisor regarding any decisions. Thank you. Have a great day! Join us on our journey to help others by subscribing below! If you liked this post from Retire By Investing, why not share it?Thumbnail Pictures Provided By These Artists on Pexels.* Burak Kebapci* Anthony Shkraba This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

How To Read Market UpdatesDisclaimer: Every market update reflects the opinion of Retire By Investing based on the date in the title. Market updates are not financial advice. Please seek a licensed professional before investing or trading. We are not liable for any decisions you make based on our opinion.Explaining the ChartCandle sticksCandle sticks are important because they represent price movement in a minute, hour, day, week, or month. Depending on the timeframe that you’re on (in this case, we go by a weekly chart), you can dive into deeper detail. A better understanding of this is to look at your own hand. On the macro level you can see it’s a hand, but on the mid-level you know there are layers of skin, muscle, fat, that make up the hand, and what makes up those parts, in a micro-level, are the cells that are all put together.Green/Red CandlesDepending on the timeframe, these candles can be red or green. Red means that the price decreased for that timeframe and green would mean that the price increased. You may see other investors use charts and have different colors, but the important takeaway is to know if the price closed red or green for the day.OHLC Open, High, Low, and Close. The most important part of these candles is the open and the close. The open and close will primarily make up a green or a red candle in relation to the price. The low and the high just tell you what happened within the designated timeframe.WicksThe low and the high of a candle stick make up the “Wick”, which is a very thin line that travels through price. During volatile days the price can dip or rise to a certain level, but close in totally different price at the end of the day.PatternsOvertime candle sticks can make up certain patterns. These patterns can tell you about supply, demand, and human behavior in the markets. These patterns can tell you when the market is shifting from an uptrend to a downtrend and vice versa. Fortunately, you will not have to worry about this because we will point out the patterns in the chart. SupportImagine being on the third floor of an apartment, breaking through the floor you’re on, landing on the second floor, and stabilizing on the second floor. That is the visual representation of price action when it hits a support. When price action hits a support, or when we say it, it means that the price has hit an area that is hard to break. We expect that price to hold depending on market conditions, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will.ResistanceImagine trying to push the ceiling of your car, it would be pretty hard right? Now think of price action trying to hit a ceiling of the car – it will most likely fail. It doesn’t mean that overtime it’ll never break the ceiling. It just means that the price may not advance for a while, but when it does there is nothing blocking the price from going higher.Terminology* Bull - Investors who believe the stock will go up.* Long – Investors who have a position and profit by the stock going up.* Bear - Investors who believe the stock will go down.* Short – Investors who have a position and profit by the stock going down.What do we cover?We cover Cryptocurrency (Digital Assets) and Stocks (Equities). We believe the majority of people follow these two topics when it comes to investing. Bitcoin is our main focus in Cryptocurrency because it has the longest history out of all the digital assets. We have shared our opinion on this asset, which can be seen here. As for equities, our focus is the NASDAQ (IXIC), which primarily includes growth stocks. We believe growth stocks bring in the highest return and use the NASDAQ as a marker for the general health of most stocks in the index.Why a weekly timeframe?Investors usually have longer time horizons than most people. Majority of Equities and Cryptocurrency will go through boom and bust cycles. Watching the market every single day isn’t going to change the decision if the NASDAQ or Bitcoin is going to fail or succeed. If you’re investing for the longer term then the weekly timeframe is going to reflect that in your decision. In our opinion, we believe that you should live your life and look at the market at the end of every single week. You don’t have to do it alone though. We’re here to help.What do the colors represent – Explained in-depth.These colors are going to mean more to you as you get more into investing. They may seem vague, but once you have the understanding through this article, you’ll appreciate it more.The colors represent certain areas of support and resistance in relation to the probability of market direction (Please refer to the beginning of this article to clarify any terminology you do not understand). No one has a crystal ball that can tell us where the market is going, but we can make an educated guess based on price action. Price action is objective data that we interpret and put in probabilities. As an investor, you are always taking a probability or a chance that the price of a stock or crypto will increase or decrease. There are no absolutes in investing, and you will most likely lose money if you think this way.In our market updates, the colors represent our opinion on the market direction based on historical price movement. It reflects our ideas on when we would most likely buy or sell, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we will. We understand that the market can be hard to navigate, and we want to help everyone understand the probabilities so they can hedge themselves against risk. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

1. IntroductionThe first Roth IRAs were opened in 1998 due to the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997. This Act is arguably one of the greatest gifts Congress has ever given the American Taxpayer.What is a Roth IRA (R-IRA)?A Roth IRA is simply an after-tax individual retirement arrangement (IRA) that grows tax-free - giving the taxpayer the opportunity to pay their taxes upfront and owe nothing later.What is a Traditional IRA (T-IRA)?A Traditional IRA is a way to utilize tax-deferred income that grows - giving the taxpayer savings on taxes upfront but will owe them later - and trust me - Uncle Sam always collects his debts.2. Tax Difference Between R-IRA / T-IRASay you max out your Roth IRA one year at $6000 and it grows to $100,000. When you turn 59 and 1/2 years old, that $100,000 is all yours - nothing more needs to go to Uncle Sam.Now say you max out a traditional IRA one year at $6000 and it grows to $100,000. If your original $6000 contribution was after-tax money then you owe income level taxes (based on tax bracket system) on $94,000 ($100,000 minus $6,000). If however your $6000 was pre-tax money then you owe income level taxes on the whole $100,000 the account grew to.3. The “Backdoor” Method“But I make too much money to save into a Roth IRA” is something I hear all the time. The fact is yes on the surface if you make a modified adjusted gross income greater than $139,000 for single-filers or $208,000 if married and filing jointly (for the year 2021), then you cannot contribute directly to a Roth IRA. But if you delve deeper you will see that original statement is false- you actually can contribute to a Roth IRA through the “backdoor” Roth IRA method. Since there is no income limit to contribute money to a traditional IRA one simply needs to contribute USD to a T-IRA up to $6000 (for 2021) and then convert their traditional IRA to a Roth IRA.If you meet Income Requirements:Bank → Roth IRAIf you do not meet Income Requirements:Bank → Traditional IRA → Roth IRALet’s say, as a single-filer, you made a modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of $150,000 for the year 2021. Given that you made over $139,000 MAGI you cannot contribute directly to a Roth IRA. Therefore, you instead open up a Traditional IRA and decide to contribute $6000 and max out that year’s contribution limit. If the $6000 is used as pre-tax money, when you convert it, you will pay income tax on whatever amount you convert to Roth IRA. If the $6000 you contributed to the T-IRA is after-tax money, then only the earnings your contribution made, is taxed as income upon the conversion. An example is as follows: In January 2021 you contributed $6000 after tax dollars to a T-IRA for the 2021 tax year. In December, you check your account and it is now worth $6100 and you decide to convert your T-IRA to a Roth IRA. This will result in you paying income taxes on the $100 earned in your account. Therefore, it is best to convert your T-IRAs to R-IRAs sooner than later if you are using the backdoor method to save even more on taxes.4. Required Minimum DistributionsRequired Minimum Distributions (RMDs) are not required for Roth IRAs, but are required for Traditional IRAs after age 72 (for 2021 - this age may increase depending on laws passed by Congress).5. Who qualifies to contribute to a Roth IRA/Can I open one up for my kids?You need to have reported taxable income for the year you want to contribute directly to a Roth IRA that is also less than the MAGI limits discussed above. If you only make $4000 USD from a summer job and file taxes you can contribute only up to the amount you made that tax year ($4000 USD) even though the IRA contribution limit is $6000 USD. This particular topic is for people asking if they can open up a Roth IRA for their children (simple answer is yes only if they have earned income and file taxes).6. Withdrawing from your Roth IRA:You can take out what you put in (contributions) penalty-free, but the earnings your contributions make are untouchable unless you pay a 10% early withdrawal penalty and income level taxes (for Roth IRA).To withdraw your earnings (not contributions) you must have had a Roth IRA for at least five years (open one sooner than later to meet your five year requirement!) and meet one of the following: you’re 59 and 1/2 years old, disabled, deceased (your estate withdraws your funds), or using the money up to $10,000 for a first-time home purchase.7. What to watch out for:New tax laws: Congress will potentially try to get rid of the backdoor conversions either for everyone or for high-income earners in 2022 (we won’t know until something is passed).Pro-Rata Rule: If you have a Traditional IRA or multiple Traditional IRAs and rollover IRAs with a mixture of pre-tax and post-tax money, it becomes a ratio of how much tax you owe when you convert from T-IRAs or rollover IRAs to a Roth IRA. An example: if you have two traditional IRAs, one with $5000 of after-tax money and the other one with $10000 of pre-tax money and you decide to convert $5000 to a Roth IRA you will have to use the Pro-Rata Rule to determine how much income tax you owe. You cannot say the $5000 converted is only the after tax money in your one account, all accounts must be added together before you convert. So if you convert $5000 you will owe income level taxes on two-thirds (2/3) of it - which amounts to income level taxes on $3,333.33 (2/3 times 5000 = 3,333.33). This fraction is found from the use of proportions as follows: $10,000/$15,000 or pre-tax money divided by total worth of pre-tax IRA (Rollover, SEP, Simple, Traditional IRAs) accounts.Important to note: Conversions of rollover IRAs or Traditional IRAs do not count towards the contribution limit per year ($6000 contribution limit for year 2021). There is no limit on how much money you convert. If you have $200k pre-tax money in a rollover IRA you can convert any amount up to the $200k in a given year to a Roth IRA (just be aware of how much income tax you’ll owe on the conversion). You cannot contribute 6k to both a traditional and Roth IRA in the same year. The 6k limit (year 2021) is cumulative between both the traditional and Roth IRAs. For example, you can legally contribute 3k to a traditional and another 3k to a Roth IRA (3k + 3k = 6k). You cannot contribute 6k to a traditional and 6k to a Roth (6k + 6k = 12k contributed- which is over the 6k contribution limit).Retire By Investing is on a mission to help others increase their free time through financial education. This substack does not provide financial advice of any kind. We do not sell or manage financial investments or vehicles. We are not licensed individuals and are not liable for any financial decisions you make. Please do your own due diligence and consult/seek your financial advisor regarding any decisions. Thank you. Have a great day! Join us on our journey to help others by subscribing below! If you liked this post from Retire By Investing, why not share it?Thumbnail Pictures Provided By These Artists on Pexels.* Burak Kebapci* Anthony Shkraba This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Bitcoin is the apex asset class that is a true hedge against inflation. Bitcoin, known as being a cryptocurrency, has been labeled as an asset class after reaching a market capitalization of more than one trillion dollars. Bitcoin has been the leader for the past decade with a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) greater than 150% when compared to all other asset classes. There has been no other asset class that has produced such a return in a small amount of time. Fundamentally, Bitcoin has a fixed supply cap of 21 million Bitcoin, making it one of the the most scarce resources known to man. Other asset classes, when compared to Bitcoin, do not have this characteristic of having a hard fixed supply cap.Long term holders (Orange) has increased to an all time high (at the time of this writing), while price is slowly increasing back to Bitcoin’s all time high price.Out of the total 21 million Bitcoin, there are roughly 18 million Bitcoin that have already been mined and 3 million Bitcoin left to be mined over the next 119 years. It is estimated that 16 million of the 18 million Bitcoin can no longer be purchased, leaving around 2 million Bitcoin on exchanges for the world to purchase. If you take the global population of 8 billion people and divide that by the sum of the remaining 2 million Bitcoin left on exchanges and 3 million to be mined over 119 years – you quickly realize that not everyone can own a full Bitcoin. Every 4 years, the amount of Bitcoin that comes onto the market (mined per day) is lessened (halvening cycles per Bitcoin protocol), which makes it harder for people to mine or obtain Bitcoin. Since the amount of Bitcoin lessens, the supply is constrained, which will increase the demand for this asset over time.Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap is attractive to many investors because it automatically adjusts for inflation. Inflation is a hidden tax that only gets worse as the government injects more and more money into the economy. Many do not realize how much inflation eats into their purchasing power of everyday costs. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) of October is said to be 6.2 percent inflation – the highest it’s been in 30 years. CPI is a metric that does not include food, energy (gas), or rent – which is important to any human. Since CPI does not include all data for inflation, the number is actually higher than what is stated. The majority of larger cities over the last five years have experienced an inflation rate of 12% (If you haven’t read our other article – please do so here), but that was before COVID. With COVID and the increase in monetary supply, inflation is way over 15%. Housing prices for 2021 have risen 18% - meaning, if you were holding USD (fiat) then your money has depreciated by the same amount.Bitcoin is potentially a great investment over a longer timeframe. Over a shorter timeframe, Bitcoin can chop up many investors who try to take profits early. Those that have held for more than 4 years have received asymmetrical returns on their capital. Four years may seem like a long time, but in the investment world that is very short. Investors do not need to put in a large portion of their net worth to obtain a great return. Many have put in less than 5% of their net worth and have grown that into astronomical amounts due to Bitcoin’s programmed asset scarcity.The macro backdrop of the global economy is accelerating the cryptocurrency trend. The massive amounts of quantitative easing we have witnessed is a powerful driving force for Bitcoin, along with other asset classes, to adjust accordingly to accommodate for inflation. Gold, which has historically been used as an inflation hedge, has performed poorly when compared to Bitcoin. It can be argued that Gold (when compared to Bitcoin) is harder to use as a currency (means of exchange), experiences more inflation as Gold is mined every year (not a true fixed supply), and can be confiscated more easily. The current market cap of Gold is around ten trillion dollars while that of Bitcoin is only 1 trillion. If Bitcoin succeeds in taking over Gold as a store of value, then Bitcoin’s market capitalization will go from one trillion to ten trillion dollars. At a ten trillion dollar market cap, each Bitcoin will be worth more than $500,000 USD per coin. Bitcoin also has the potential to become a peer-to-peer monetary network that will provide a way to pay for good and services. Simply put, Bitcoin’s worst case scenario is that it replaces Gold as a store of value.Some of the wealthiest people have started to invest in Bitcoin on a personal and institutional level. Jack Dorsey (Square), Elon Musk (Tesla), Michael Saylor (Microstrategy), Cathie Wood (Ark Invest), and Tim Cook (personal only) (Apple has not publicly announced BTC purchase to date) have exposure to Bitcoin. This begs the question why some of the greatest minds are beginning to invest in Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not just for the wealthy - politicians and athletes are now starting to collect their salaries in Bitcoin.The question is not why are they adding Bitcoin to their portfolios – the question is why aren’t you?Disclaimer: Retire By Investing holds a position in Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Please seek a financial advisor. This content is intended to introduce the thought of adding Bitcoin to your portfolio, but it is not financial advice. Please seek a licensed professional for your financial decisions.Retire By Investing is on a mission to help others increase their free time through financial education. This substack does not provide financial advice of any kind. We do not sell or manage financial investments or vehicles. We are not licensed individuals and are not liable for any financial decisions you make. Please do your own due diligence and consult/seek your financial advisor regarding any decisions. Thank you. Have a great day! Join us on our journey to help others by subscribing below! If you liked this post from Retire By Investing, why not share it?Thumbnail Pictures Provided By These Artists on Pexels.* Burak Kebapci* Anthony Shkraba This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

Emotions and Investing.Everything you've ever wanted is on the other side of fear. - George Addair People have different risk tolerances, exposure, and mental capacity to handle money. The meaning behind money is different for everyone, and that is why investing is hard for any individual. An investment journey is more than rocketship or moneyface emojis - It is the journey one takes to learn more about themselves and how they react to the market. There could be deeply rooted behaviors/beliefs when it comes to investing that may push/pull people into different directions when making decisions. It’s important to have a plan and to continue to refine their process to handle more money in their account over time.Volatility Simply put, you’re not coming into the investment game thinking you’re going to lose because you are investing to grow your money. If you hate volatility then you’re definitely in for a ride. You must learn to be ok with volatility because it will not go away now or in the future.  As your account increases in value – so does the volatility, which can make you sick to your stomach or elated. It’s not a bad thing if you’re starting out feeling both sides of the emotional spectrum. Overtime you should start to feel detached and unmoved. This is comparable to any task you do thousands of times per year. To a surgeon – it’s just another surgery. To a mechanic – it’s just another car. To a NASCAR driver – it’s just another race. Overtime, the goal of obtaining assets and growing your money will be the same – it’s just another investment. Imagine your account showing an increase/decrease like this. Ask yourself how you feel when you see these pictures? If you feel any type of emotion, such as greed/fear – try to understand why you feel that way. It doesn’t matter if its three, four, five, six, or seven figures in your account. What matters more is not getting sidetracked by the amount of monetary swings that happens day by day. It’s easy to stay in the game when the market is trending upwards – only because your account is most likely in the green. The opposite may not be true when you’re in a downtrending market or first starting out. As you get deeper into investing, reflecting will become important for self growth. To help you stay level headed on your journey, here are some factors that may make you emotional.Unrealized Gains Unrealized gains/losses can make you feel different levels of fear or greed. Unrealized losses are harder to deal with than unrealized gains. This is because losing money is hard for people to cope with – especially if you’re new to the market. As people get more into investing, they sometimes “marry” the stock – meaning they never sell despite the downturn of that stock. When the stock has reversed from gains to losses, people hope and wait for it to reverse. This ‘hope’ is your fear that has finally kicked in because you didn’t take the necessary steps to secure profit on that particular stock. I’m not saying that you’re trading, but sometimes when investing in new stocks, you may see the stock take off and then come back to earth. Unrealized gains are pretty much the opposite, but the problem is that people don’t sell off to retain their capital to get into another stock. The importance of taking your capital out is to keep yourself level headed. Majority of people think of the “homerun” play, which prevents them from taking any profit beforehand. Please understand that profits are not profits until realized, and that unrealized losses should be cut.Perspective & Time frames The person who is looking to profit today or tomorrow is bound to end up losing their capital. When you’re investing, you should actually be investing – not looking for quick profits. New investors are not used to holding money in the market because they are very risk averse. This can definitely work against you if you’re quick to take profits. The greatest arbitrage is having the longest timeframe, which can be seen on this chart. When you’re looking at the longest time frames, you’ll be able to have a better perspective of what the future could/can bring you. Having the mental fortitude to have your capital in the market is a fee that you pay everyday. It’s something that you have to be cognizant of. Majority of people do not have the risk tolerance or balls to be in the market all the time. If you’ve seen Real Estate – something that is held for 30 years. That asset class that has definitely gone up over time no matter what. If you’re looking at this chart of the S&P 500. Anyone who has held in the past is 100 percent in profit. Keep that in mind when you’re thinking of the future. Simply put, when you’re in doubt – zoom out.Capital At Risk. Money is money regardless how you cut it. The importance of risk management is definitely a must if you’re going to survive the investment journey. Going all in is risky because you subject yourself to price swings you may not be ready for. If you find yourself not able to sleep at night – that may be a sign that you have too much money/risk in an investment. In time you will have the mental fortitude to put a large amount of capital towards an investment, but that takes time. When you have a hefty account, putting a small portion of that at risk to gain a bigger pie is how it’s really done. As your account grows, you can grow your account relatively easily without breaking the bank to propel yourself forward. Rule of thumb is to only invest the amount of capital you’re willing to lose.  Investing is a marathon to retiring wealthy. Sprinting your way through your investment journey can have your money sprinting away from you just as fast. On some investments you will lose. Not every investment you pick will be a winner so it’s important that you’re not putting the house up on any type of investment – unless you’re very skilled in doing so.Only Deviate When The Data Changes.                An investing thesis is always needed to make sure you do not deviate from your plan. Anything that is worth having does not come easy. It’s very easy to become emotionally attached to the gains or the money that you may lose, but it’s important to stay focused on your plan. If you invest in random stocks, you get random results. At the end of the day you need to remind yourself why you invested in the stocks you picked. Personally, I would learn how to read a stock chart, but that is next level stuff that I invite others to learn when they can. It’s not needed, but it can help you get an edge on your investment. Understand the macro picture behind the stocks you’re picking so you can logically understand if you need to change course. When markets are red, you will not be able to think. Have everything ready so you do not have to think – you’ve already done the prep work. Trust yourself.When is it enough? So let’s say you have a winner – what’s next? Nothing wrong with taking profits if you want to dip your head into other sectors or industries. Have a plan to realize some profits, but if you don’t need the profits always make sure you do not let your winners become losers. Investing is a hard game because you don’t know what will happen. However, if you feel that you want to consolidate your portfolio or make a purchase on something big - just know what it took to get there. However, the money you gained from investing allows you to buy the things you want without having to save up for the whole amount. Understand that investing is a fluid concept, but it only takes one time to get it right. Once you get right you’ll be able to duplicate the same process.Good luck to all. Believe in yourself.Retire By Investing is on a mission to help others increase their free time through financial education. This substack does not provide financial advice of any kind. We do not sell or manage financial investments or vehicles. We are not licensed individuals and are not liable for any financial decisions you make. Please do your own due diligence and consult/seek your financial advisor regarding any decisions. Thank you. Have a great day! Join us on our journey to help others by subscribing below! If you liked this post from Retire By Investing, why not share it?Thumbnail Pictures Provided By These Artists on Pexels.* Burak Kebapci* Anthony Shkraba This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe

            On November 5th, 2021 a new 1 trillion dollar infrastructure bill was passed. There are many things to be watching for as the government starts to intervene with brute monetary injection of capital into the system. If you hold assets, this is definitely a plus for you, but if you do not own a house, stocks, crypto, or commodities – then you are an involuntary victim of what the government is doing to the lives of American people.You may be thinking, “why does it not affect those who hold assets?”Simply put, those who hold assets are going to become richer and richer as more capital flows into the system. More on that later. For now, let’s start with supply and demand.(Investopedia) (Look at the chart vertically not diagonal)Disclaimer: Before you read the rest of the article, it is important you understand this concept. If you don’t, the rest of this article is not going to make much sense. To keep things easy, I have included this chart to understand the concept of asset classes and supply and demand. There is a reason why people have been investing for the longer term, but I hope this gives you an idea on why everything is getting more expensive. You may have seen homes, groceries, gas, rent, and other things start to rise in price around you. So now looking back at this chart you’ll have a reference. This chart is simply stating that if there is no supply then the demand for a particular object is very high – if that demand is high then the price will go up because it is sought out. The opposite is also true because if there’s so much supply then the demand for that particular object starts to dwindle – pretty much leaving it priceless.FederalReserve.gov Going back to those who do not hold any assets. Their money isn’t tied to anything so therefore there’s no growth on their money overtime. So as new money gets injected in the system – everything around them starts to increase and their dollar seems like it’s staying the same. They’re being robbed without them knowing. Majority of those people in the bottom 50% barely hold any assets, while the top 90-100% hold the majority of assets. So as the asset prices get inflated by new dollars, the bottom 50% start to lose out and are basically locked out of the system.So now that you have this concept, let me briefly discuss the asset classes in relation to the US Dollar.Stocks:(Finviz.com) You may recognize two powerhouse technology stocks in this table. It’s very important to note the difference in SHARE FLOAT and SHARE Price. Tesla is shy of 1 Billion shares out, and of that amount of shares – only 788.12 million share are available for the public to hold at any given time. Apple on the other hand is shy of 16.5 Billion shares with 16.39 Billion available for the public. Now if you’re trying to understand why Tesla costs more – it’s because there’s only 788 Million Shares for the whole world to grab versus the 16.5 billion shares that Apple has. This also explains volatility in each stock, but I will not be talking about that here. So if we go back to supply and demand, there’s really not much of Tesla for all of world to grab. This means that people will ultimately have to pay a higher price for these stocks as more money flows into the market. Those that hold stock, as money gets injected into the system, will eventually see gains in their account because stocks are considered an asset. If there’s a limited supply of stock and the supply of money increases – then the demand for assets will go up to offset the inflation that hits the market.However, that isn’t all. You can see this in cryptocurrency, real estate, and commodities markets. Anything that has a limited supply eventually starts to grow in price because the reserve currency of the world has to reprice assets in relation to the monetary supply. So now let me introduce you to the Monetary Supply (M2).Investopedia(FRED) Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 [M2SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL, November 9, 2021 In this chart, you can see the graph start to skew upwards after 2008. During this time Quantitative Easing was introduced and increased the monetary supply by 500 billion dollars. That 500 Billion dollars started to spiral out of control as asset prices started to increase. Since there’s more money in the system that is available for everyone – the credit system started to print more money in addition to what is already put into the system. How is that possible?            For simple math, let’s take the 500 billion from 2008 as an example. 500 Billion is injected into the monetary supply, but let’s say it’s being loaned out as a student loan (shameless plug) and let’s say people have to pay 10 percent interest. Which means that 25 Billion is now owed back to in interest so now theoretically there’s 525 Billion dollars in circulation per say.            If you asked the question  “But there’s only 500 billion dollars that was printed… how is that possible?” Then you got the correct answer. It cannot be paid back. It literally forms as a spiral of debt. That debt overtime starts to compound. Asset prices from that debt is inflation and that eventually makes everything more expensive by default. So going back to the chart, you can see that Inflation started to slowly melt upwards. However, after 2020 you can see the monetary supply go parabolic. Everything around you is definitely worth more than it was a year ago or even in 2019. There’s always an after effect for anything that is introduced into the system. Now is temporarily holding Fiat (money that isn’t backed by anything) currency a bad thing? No. Temporarily holding Fiat currency is a strategy for those who know how to use the dollar to it’s maximum potential; however, many will learn this skill too late in life. There’s nothing wrong with holding dollars if it’s temporary, but in the long run – the value of the dollar will continue to diminish. Those that continue to wait on the sidelines will see their net worth start to slowly diminish. What was once 1 dollar will become pennies, and at that point we’re bound to repeat history – Rome, Germany, and Venezuela (collapse of currencies).Retire By Investing is on a mission to help others increase their free time through financial education. This substack does not provide financial advice of any kind. We do not sell or manage financial investments or vehicles. We are not licensed individuals and are not liable for any financial decisions you make. Please do your own due diligence and consult/seek your financial advisor regarding any decisions. Thank you. Have a great day! Join us on our journey to help others by subscribing below! If you liked this post from Retire By Investing, why not share it?Thumbnail Pictures Provided By These Artists on Pexels.* Burak Kebapci* Anthony Shkraba This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit retirebyinvesting.substack.com/subscribe