The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

This week Eimear Daly and Paul Robson explore the reasons behind sterling’s strength against uncertainty both politically in the UK and geopolitically in the Middle East. They also discuss Chinese-US relations ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, and the value of the yuan ahead of Donald Trump’s visit there. Key takeaways:- UK political risk may matter more to sterling later in 2026 than immediately.- The Trump–Xi summit could become a major catalyst for USD direction, and Asian currencies.- Markets are increasingly focused on capital flows, reserve diversification and long-term exposure to US assets. You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. This episode was recorded on 7 May 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore the FX implications of central bank rate holds in the US, the euro area and the UK. They also discuss Japan, where it appears as though policymaker intervention is boosting the value of the yen as oil prices hit new highs. But can such a move work in the long run? This episode was recorded on 30 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore further market developments amid geopolitical tensions around Iran, including central bank policies and wider macroeconomic developments.Key topics covered:1. Impact of Iran-US tensions on FX markets2. Central bank reaction functions and monetary policy outlooks3. US dollar and yen outlook, alongside market expectations for Fed and Bank of Japan actionsThis episode was recorded on 23 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

FX markets are caught between relief and reality. This week on The Currency Exchange, Paul Robson, Brian Daingerfield, and Eimear Daly unpack how a fragile Middle East ceasefire is reshaping the dollar narrative – unwinding war-driven gains, but leaving behind stubbornly higher energy prices and hawkish rate expectations. With positioning reset and the dollar stuck mid-range, the team debates what parts of the pre-war playbook – and what’s changed for good.In Europe, attention turns to capital flows and whether structural pressures on the dollar could finally push EUR/USD higher. Meanwhile, in the UK, a sharp repricing of Bank of England expectations is already reversing as policymakers signal patience in the face of an energy shock.Looking ahead, all eyes are on Fed nominee Warsh: will he accelerate the pivot to rate cuts, or reinforce the market’s wait-and-see stance?Finally, we take a closer look at how a political shake-up in Hungary sparked a rally in the forint, and raises the prospect of deeper EU integration.This episode was recorded on 16 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss sources of heightened market uncertainty and puzzle over the calm that has beset currency volatility.Key topics covered:1. Market reactions to the Middle East conflict2. The US dollar and market positioning3. Sterling’s surprising resilience4. The Yen and fiscal considerations5. Lasting themes for currency markets This episode was recorded on 26 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist) is joined by Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to talk about the ongoing situation in the Middle East. They explore how threats to energy infrastructure might affect central bank policies, even if interest rates are still on hold in major economies. They also delve into what the crisis means for emerging markets. This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist) is joined by G10 FX Strategy Co-Heads Brian Dangerfield and Paul Robson to talk about currency moves during ongoing military action in Iran. Key topics include: - Energy prices and oil market volatility- Central bank reaction functions and monetary policy- Emerging markets' response to geopolitical risks- Sterling’s performance and UK monetary policy- The Bank of Japan's stance on inflation and energy costsThis episode was recorded on 12 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week’s combined episode of Currency Exchange and Bondcast focuses on the ongoing Middle East conflict and its impacts on currency and rates markets. This episode features edited highlights from a client webinar hosted on Tuesday, featuring host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) and guests Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) and Paul Robson (Co-Head of G10FX Strategy). They discussed: - Management of ammunition and defence resources by regional players.- Political pressure on President Trump to conclude this initial phase swiftly.- Expected continuation of heightened military activity over the next few days.- Monitoring Iranian missile, drone, and maritime operations, including possible threats to the Strait of Hormuz.- Indicators for de-escalation: signs of pragmatic politics or regional diplomatic intervention.- Importance of maritime security in global energy markets.- Currency markets responding as expected: dollar strength sterling resilience in cross-currency pairs.- Volatility in bond markets reflecting both safe-haven demand and concerns over defence spending and future inflation.- Key market drivers to watch.This episode was recorded on 3 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this crossover episode of Bondcast and its sister show Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to explore the recent Supreme Court decision on US tariffs, its implications for FX and rates market dynamics, and the future of tariff policy. This episode was recorded on 25 February 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss market sentiment for major currencies. Firstly, they dissect UK economic data and the implications for sterling, plus the Bank of England policy and receding political risk. They also cover Fed policy, wider geopolitical influences on FX markets, the price of oil and implications for Japanese yen. This episode was recorded on 19 February 2026. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Eimear Daly and emerging market specialist Aditya Sharma discuss the recent India-US trade deal and its implications for Indian assets and the rupee. They also delve into the upcoming Hungarian elections, analyzing the potential outcomes and their impact on markets. You can also find this episode of The Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. This episode was recorded on 12 February 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield dig into the major themes affecting currency markets. They begin by examining the Bank of England’s ‘dovish hold’ on 5 February – and the drivers behind a recent uptick in volatility in UK assets more generally of late.Then they turn to the US, where they discuss the recent nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell when his leadership term at the Fed ends in May – and the potential impact on monetary policy and Fed independence. Finally, they take a closer look at the ECB’s latest rates hold, Japan’s lower house elections, and the impact on global FX dynamics.You can also find this episode of The Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. This episode was recorded on 5 February 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield to discuss some major themes affecting currency markets. They begin by examining how the US dollar has responded to geopolitical developments and provide an update on the Federal Reserve. They also discuss volatility as it relates to Japan’s currency, and stability as it relates to sterling and recent UK data. Finally, they touch on emerging trends in European and Scandinavian currencies, and examine the nuances between currencies and their traditional market drivers.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 22 January 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield and guest Paul Robson delve into the current state of foreign exchange markets. They discuss the recent strength of the pound against the euro, the implications of upcoming UK economic data, and the overall low volatility in FX markets despite significant geopolitical events. They also focus on the Federal Reserve's influence on the dollar, and how political events in Japan are affecting the yen.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 15 January 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of the Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson return to discuss the state of foreign exchange markets as we enter 2026. They analyse the recent performance of the British pound, the euro's stability, and the implications of geopolitical events on the dollar. The conversation also touches on New Year's resolutions for FX watchers, Paul's intake of Stilton cheese and potential future drivers for the dollar.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead This episode was recorded on 8 January 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this lookahead to 2026, host Tim Phillips is joined by Eimear Daly, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield to discuss key themes shaping the year ahead. They start with the dollar, where 2026 is expected to be dominated by the Fed’s interest rate policy. Should we expect a policy error if rates are kept low under new Fed leadership and continued fiscal expansion? And what, crucially, does this mean for the dollar's exceptional status in foreign reserves? They also discuss how FX markets have become desensitised to geopolitical drama, only reacting when real economic effects are visible. And in emerging markets, lower volatility and a weaker dollar appear to create a favourable backdrop for high-carry currencies.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead This episode was recorded on 12 November 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

On the back of the Fed’s widely-predicted decision to cut rates this week, Eimear Daly speaks to Brian Daingerfield about changes to the monetary guidance, and how this feeds indecision about a further cut in December. Elsewhere they talk about Japan’s currency, and the structural versus cyclical nature of monetary policy in Canada.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 30 October 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on UK inflation data, the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook, the upcoming UK budget, and the performance of sterling. They also touch on the European Central Bank's position, the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions, the Bank of Japan's policy considerations, and the Canadian economy's inflation data. The conversation highlights the interconnectedness of global economic indicators and their impact on currency markets.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 23 October 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current dynamics in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the UK budget, European currency outlook, US trade tensions, the impact of the government shutdown, and Japanese politics. Phew! They also explore how fiscal and monetary policies are influencing currency movements globally. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 16 October 2025. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Ian Vanderhorn discuss the recent LDP leadership election in Japan, its impact on the yen, and the implications for fiscal and monetary policy. They also explore the potential coalition dynamics and the Bank of Japan's decision-making process amid political uncertainty.This episode was recorded on 9 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week host Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to discuss the major themes affecting currency markets. They focus on the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision and the Bank of England's interest rate hold. They analyse the implications of these decisions on the dollar and sterling, the impact of economic data on market expectations, and the significance of dollar hedging of international assets and interest rate differentials.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 18 September 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield and Ian Vanderhorn discuss the current state of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts. They highlight the implications of recent labour market data and inflation readings, as well as the legal back-and-forth surrounding President Trump’s tariff moves. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 11 September 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

The Currency Exchange returns from the summer break, with host Eimear Daly and guest Paul Robson discussing recent dynamics in currency markets. They focus on the sensitivity of sterling to fiscal developments, the outlook for the UK economy, and the implications of political risks in France on the euro. They also analyse Poland's recent interest rate decisions and the potential for its currency to track emerging market peers.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 4 September 2025, and captions are automatically generated. For any terms used please refer to our glossary:https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here:https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Listen to host Brian Daingerfield and guest Ian Vanderhorn discuss recent developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the strengthening of the dollar due to trade deals, the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, and the contrasting approaches of central banks like the Bank of Canada. They also analyse the implications of the quarterly refunding announcement by the Treasury and its impact on interest rate dynamics.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 31 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, host Eimear Daly is joined by Brain Daingerfield and Paul Robson to discuss the significant impact of Japan's upper house elections on FX markets, the implications for fiscal policy, and the potential for changes in leadership. They also explore the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, the European Central Bank's recent hold, and the outlook for the Bank of England and sterling. The conversation highlights the interconnectedness of global monetary policies and their effects on currency markets.Remember to subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 24 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson dig into the latest US and UK data prints and discuss how labour and inflation trends are affecting their views on the GBP and USD outlook.They look ahead to what we might expect from the forthcoming European Central Bank meeting – and the potential impact on the outlook for EURUSD. And they consider the impact of recent shifts in US trade policy on markets more broadly, and the market whiplash around media reports about Fed Chair Powell’s fate.NB. This episode was recorded on 17 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Eimear Daly and Kevin Cummins discuss the latest US labor market report, which revealed a surprising increase in job growth. They analyse the implications of the report for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly in light of inflation concerns and market reactions. The conversation also touches on the performance of the government sector and the outlook for emerging market currencies.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 3 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, host Brian Daingerfield and guest Paul Robson discuss the recent developments in the Middle East and their impact on foreign exchange markets, particularly the dollar's safe haven status. They delve into the Federal Reserve's differing views on interest rates and the implications for the dollar, and cover the performance of sterling amid global economic changes and the fiscal risks facing both the UK and US.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 26 June 2025For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson in a Bondcast/Currency Exchange crossover to talk about interest rate holds in the UK and US. Were there any clues about the nature of future decisions? Away from the central banks, they also discuss the impact of military tensions on market sentiment. Remember to like and subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 19 June 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson discuss recent UK economic data, its implications for the Bank of England, and the outlook for sterling. They delve into the labour market's performance and the significance of upcoming interest rate decisions. They also talk about the potential impact of political risks in emerging markets, particularly in Europe.Remember to hit like and subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 12 June 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current state of foreign exchange markets, focusing on the influence of the US dollar, recent decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB), and the fortunes of sterling. They also analyse economic data, tariff impacts, and the outlook for central bank policies.Remember to hit like and subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 5 June 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Paul Robson discuss the current state of global markets, focusing on US trade re-escalation and de-escalation – and the impact on global FX markets. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. NB. This episode was recorded on 29 May 2025. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Brian Daingerfield and Eimear Daley discuss the current state of the dollar, emerging markets, and the implications of recent US trade policies. They analyse the impact of the recent tax bill in the US and the political landscape in Poland following its recent elections.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 22 May 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current state of global markets, focusing on unexpected strength in the UK economy and the impact of recent US trade de-escalation on the dollar. But what challenges lie ahead for growth and monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic?This episode was recorded on 15 May 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the Bank of England's recent decisions, the implications of the UK-US trade agreement, and the Fed's cautious stance. They analyse how these factors impact the value of sterling and the dollar, as well as the broader economic landscape.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 8 May 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Brian Daingerfield and Ian Vanderhorn discuss the recent Canadian election results, which saw former central banker Mark Carney elected as prime minister. They analyse the continuity of the new coalition government, the challenges posed by trade arrangements, and the performance of the Canadian dollar amid the current economic backdrop. The conversation also turns to the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan and its impact on the yen.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 1 May 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current state of foreign exchange markets, focusing on the volatility of the US dollar, the dynamics of European currencies, and the implications of FX reserve diversification. They analyse the impact of US economic policy on currency strength, the outlook for the euro and sterling, and the potential shifts in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 24 April 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this crossover episode of Bondcast and Currency Exchange, Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Oriane Parmentier to discuss all things tariffs, and the political situation in France. It's not just markets that are surrounded by uncertainty. How the Fed will dictate interest rates now seems less clear than it did just a few weeks ago, owing to likely higher inflation alongside weaker growth expectations. In France meanwhile, will Marine Le Pen's criminal conviction lead to a crisis?Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 3 April 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson discuss recent US auto tariff announcements and their muted market reaction and the implications of the UK Spring Statement on fiscal policy. Against this backdrop and inflation data, how will the Bank of England set monetary policy? And what to make of the outlook for sterling? Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 27 March 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the recent Federal Reserve meeting, focusing on updated economic projections and the implications for interest rates. They also explore the distinction between soft and hard data in the US economy and how this affects the Fed's wait-and-see approach to decision-making. The conversation also covers the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate decision and the potential impact of upcoming US tariffs on global economies and currency markets – and the ways this is measured.You can also find this episode of The Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 20 March 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current dynamics of the foreign exchange markets, focusing on the influence of US politics on euro-dollar rates. They explore the drivers behind the recent movements in currency values, the outlook for the Euro and Swedish krona, and the position of sterling amidst changing global policies. The conversation highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary policies in shaping currency trends and the potential implications for investors.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 13 March 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of the Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Giovanni Zanni discuss significant developments in European defence spending and the implications for the economy and financial markets. They also analyse the European Central Bank's decision to cut rates on Thursday, and explore what's next for the Euro and the US dollar. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 6 March 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week's episode, we dive into the fast-moving world of currency markets with a special focus on the latest developments in US trade policy. Host Eimear Daly is joined by US FX and rates strategist, Ian Vanderhorn, to break down the potential impact of Trump's shifting tariff policies, the implications for the Canadian dollar, and the broader global economic landscape.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 27 February 2025For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson discuss the significant implications of the Trump presidency on European security. They explore the potential shifts in defence spending, and what it may mean for the EUR and regional European currencies, as well as the consequences for regional government bond markets. They also delve into what this week's key UK data may mean for Bank of England policy rates and sterling, and take stock of US tariff-related headlines.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 20 February 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the Bank of England's monetary policy stance, recent UK economic data, US tariff risks, and the broader political landscape in Europe. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.NB. This episode was recorded on 13 February 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In a week when the Monetary Policy Committee's arch hawk Catherine Mann turned most dovish, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson find themselves with much to analyse. Aside from the Bank of England's decision to cut rates, they also cover Trumpian tariffs, the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.NB. This episode was recorded on 6 February 2025For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the recent Federal Reserve meeting, its implications for the currency markets, and the potential impact of tariff threats under the Trump administration. They also explore the political risks in emerging markets, particularly focusing on the upcoming presidential election in Poland and its potential effects on the Polish złoty.    Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.NB. This episode was recorded on 30 January 2025For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Donald Trump made a running start to his second presidency by signing a record-breaking number of executive orders. This week Brian Daingerfield and Eimear Daly debrief on what Trumponomics 2.0 means for the dollar and emerging market currencies.    Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.NB. This episode was recorded on 23 January 2025For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Will markets applaud Donald Trump’s second act as president? The Fed has been handed some welcome news on both inflation and labour - accompanied by some dollar highs and hopes for rate cuts. As Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss, however, markets remain skittish about Trump’s potential trade policies. So what next for the currency?  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.NB. This episode was recorded on 16 January 2025For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson and Ian Vanderhorn to cover discordant sounds emanating from FX markets. They start with Sterling’s grapple with stagflation fears, moving on to the strength of the dollar against emerging market currencies and CAD performance following political upset in Canada. None of which is a reason to do Dry January. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.NB. This episode was recorded on 9 December 2025For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html