Bellies Drop while Beef Corrects

Try to say "Avian Flu Front" five times fast, go ahead, give it a whirl. The beef market is continuing the market correction started last week.  Middle meats were leading this market higher, and now they are leading this market lower.  Ribeyes, Tenderloins, Strip Loins, all lower for the week. Rounds and Chucks coming off as well.  The one area the reduced harvest numbers are really pushing on is thin meats, briskets, flanks, sirloin flap, and skirt steak all steadily moving higher each week.  I expect we will see this continue higher right into Cinco de Mayo.  Mother’s Day is right after, so we do have some events coming to move some beef.  I’d still stay ahead of my needs, cattle harvest was only 512K last week, down from 533K the week before so while prices may be declining, inventories continue to be tight.   Chicken demand remains strong and production is continuing to outpace last year running about 2% up for the year.  Recently boneless skinless randoms and tenders have been on a weekly move higher.  It looks like randoms will take a little breather and actually decline a few pennies, tenders and wings will continue higher for next week.  Overall I still see this market continuing higher at least the next few weeks.  On the Avian flu front, another relatively good week, 3 new cases affecting 251K birds.  Heat is not this virus’s friend, so hopefully as the weather warms the virus will be less active.   War can’t move the corn market, this week’s close $4.55/bushel, last week’s close $4.53.  New crop is coming and we still have plenty of last year’s crop and I believe still some 2024 crop; there is lots of corn available.  Soy: now soy moved higher a few weeks ago, not letting go those recent gains and demand for biofuel is keeping soybeans moving.  Wheat is seeing effects of internation unrest, market is up $.13bushel from last week.  Nothing to panic but I think we will see modest increases in flour pricing.   I started seeing the pork belly market move lower this week, then it just dropped, today’s close $136 down from last week’s $149.  This market reset should move bacon prices down.  The rest of the pork complex is moving by pennies, butts, loins, ribs, all a good value with good availability.   A split market this week in dairy, thru Thursday’s close the CME for butter is up 2, while the barrel is down 1 and block down 3.  Production numbers say this should be a stable market at least for the next few weeks.   Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn