There's Good And Bad News

That groundhog can kiss… oh.. Never mind.  Let’s look at markets.    Beef: Production numbers continue to get better with 643K head harvested last week, up from 636K head the week before.  I think with this increased production and Valentine’s Day being on a Monday this year, lack of demand is going push this market lower.  As I said last week, I don’t think we will see lower prices before Valentine’s day but beef demand is lowest in February for the whole year.  Middle meats are still holding strong and loins are moving up, but I think this complex will be moving lower in the next couple weeks.  Until them, buy only what you need. Ground beef is still in overdrive followed by rounds and chucks.  We should be about ready to break, but not just yet.  Pork: Pork bellies continue higher closing at $161 yesterday, higher than last week’s $154.  We are in a much improved position with bellies in cold storage from the end of 2021.  The new reality of the higher costs at retail have made a dent in sales.  I think we will see a buying opportunity later this month, but right now we are still heading higher.  Overall pork production is running behind last year, we may not see much relief in pork pricing though the first half of the year.  Expect strong pricing to continue. Chicken: Boneless skinless breasts continue higher still.  This time of year has not seen pricing like this since 2009. While demand for breast meat continues wings are moving up too.  February is always a high time for wings, this year will be no exception.   On an encouraging note, the hatch rate broke 80% for the first time since April of last year.  Finally. This is good news.  Labor and transportation continue to challenge chicken production but available raw material is increasing.  With QSR driving the breast demand, don’t expect anything to come off anytime soon.                                                                         Grains: Lots going on in corn and especially soy.  Let’s talk corn first, yesterday closed at $6.29 down from last week’s $6.34.  Lowered expectations on the south American crops are keeping demand on US corn strong around the world.  Lower than expected exports held things a bit in check so I think unless something drastic happens we are in the $6 corn world for the foreseeable future.  Soy ran up this week to its highest price in six months.  Biofuel demand, that bad news out of South America and higher palm oil prices all had influence on soy prices.  We are in better position than we were last year, but I think we could see another run up on soy.  Looking at flour and it is two different stories.  Hard red wheat continues to move higher while soft spring wheat seems to have topped out for right now.  I’d still stay ahead on flour needs.  Dairy:  Finally let’s look at dairy, butter gave back $.30 last week and another $.13 this week so butter is back in “normal” range. Really don’t see much more down side to butter market.  Block and barrel however are both up $.11 through Thursday’s close.  The domestic dairy herd is down 123K head since last May suggesting we may have strong dairy prices well into the year.   OK, I’m done.   Thanks for listening and  Lets do it again next week.  Market Trends with Tracy is a production of Saval Foodservice. Hosted by Tracy Anderson, Veteran Purchaser & Merchandiser. Savalfoods.com/market-trendsSavalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn