Why Andy Constan Says The AI Bubble is in Earnings, Not Price

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm Monetary Matters is now streaming daily as part of Monitoring the Situation. Join us live on X and YouTube from 4 to 5 PM ET Monday through Friday @mtsituation for live interviews and analysis breaking down the market’s most important situations. This is recording of a recent live interview from MTS. Veteran macro trader Andy Constan joins Monetary Matters live on Monitoring the Situation to discuss why he has 100% confidence that AI stocks are in a bubble. The nuance though is that unlike most bubbles, where the bubble is in unsustainable prices with no earnings, this is a bubble in unsustainable earnings that will eventually fall and make the current somewhat reasonable prices look lofty in hindsight. Constan highlights metrics like the $400 billion in S&P 500 earnings expectations and the over 60% of that is supposed to accrue to AI winners, and argues that based on projected GDP growth that their simply “isn’t enough pie for all of the S&P 500 to eat” without it coming other very important areas of the economy. Follow Andy Constan on X: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Jack Farley on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max Wiethe on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Earnings Bubble Thesis 01:22 Defining a Bubble Regime 04:02 Past Bubbles and Patterns 07:57 Why PE Looks Normal 08:57 GDP Pie Math Reality 13:06 Unlimited ETFs HFGM 15:23 AI ROI and Inflation Risks 18:34 Three Cohorts Funding Compute 23:36 What a Real Pop Looks Like 28:22 Timing and Investor Discipline 30:27 Trading It Collars Not Shorts 33:13 Closing and Sign Off