Mallen Baker: Faultlines

President Trump has the appearance of a man furious at his lack of options - to the degree where he is thrashing out at whatever is within reach. So he threatened US ally Oman with being bombed if it 'gets in the way'. He slated ally South Korea because it declined to help him in Iran, even though its forces are very much needed on its own front line. However, he praised their enemy, North Korea. And, at times, he has praised as well the Iranian leadership. What is anyone serious to make of it all? Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday August 14th 2026. President Trump is demanding expressions of loyalty from NATO members before deciding where US troops will be withdrawn. Is this the moment where it really gets ugly? 150 thousand Canadians are demanding that the US ambassador to their country Pete Hoekstra be booted out, as Alberta squares up to an independence referendum. The UK's MAGA-lite populist Nigel Farage wins his by-election against a man wearing a bin on his head - and astonishingly that seems not to have solved his problems. And various people are asking - what could every replace Trump's press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who is standing down?I have a suggestion. Let's discuss.

We just learned that Trump switched planes to fly out of the Turkey NATO summit, and he did so under the cover of a catering truck. There's one detail to this that nobody is commenting on - and a wider context that is likewise not getting attention, even though it's absolutely key to the dynamic of the Iran war, and why it's going the way it is. Let's discuss.

Various people in the know have said that President Donald Trump has not given up on his ambitions to get Greenland. And so we can see, as an oil company with strong connections to the president has been preparing to drill for oil there without the needed permission from the Greenlandic authorities. It's exactly the sort of pushing the system, asserting American privilege to do whatever they want, that could be part of Trump's battering ram approach. Interestingly, the Gandalv substack today published a very detailed scenario of how a US takeover of Greenland would be likely to proceed - and amongst the surprises contained within it are just how hard the US ultimately finds it to hold onto, and just how crucial a role Canada plays in deciding the outcome. Let's discuss. A link to the Gandalv scenario discussed in this video (paywalled, I'm afraid) https://gandalv.substack.com/p/what-a-us-war-with-europe-and-canada?r=1sy3z&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

There is nothing in the mere fact of having a dominantly powerful country in the world that says that it would be expected to act as an out-and-out bully. Indeed, before President Donald Trump, it was considered to be in the US strategic interest not to do that, for all that the US would certainly flex its muscles in specific instances reasonably often. The fact is that Trump had a completely different frame to any that came before - one based on the power dynamics of the playground and often profound misunderstandings of reality. Now, increasingly countries are reasserting the basic logic of geopolitics-as-usual, and rejecting Trump's frame. It is pushing him to the heights of fury as the techniques he assumed would always work, fail him over and over again. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday August 7th 2026. Iran and Oman are close to a deal on the Strait of Hormuz that cuts out Donald Trump's America entirely. Not everyone in the media, nor in the Trump administration itself, have entirely absorbed the fact. As the dust settles on the invasion of tens of thousands of people into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, it's worth reflecting on what the incident told us about the coiled spring that is now the far-right populists in Europe and America. And Russian and American disinformation is actively targeting the coming German state elections. And somewhat separate to that, Germany's Chancellor Merz could be about to do a repeat on Keir Starmer's premature ejection from power.

For the last year and a half, President Donald Trump and his self-styled Secretary of War Pete Hegseth have been pretty much in lockstep. But as the Iran war sours on Trump and he is confronted with the reality of weapons depletion, he has started lashing out at those he holds responsible - and the most obvious figure is indeed Hegseth himself. And so it has been reported that they had an angry confrontation last week. We discuss why Hegseth is unqualified for the job, as identified by a fifty year old book on military incompetence. And what happens if he gets booted out of Trump's cabinet. Let's discuss.

President Trump is displaying one of the most distinctive traits of the irrational dictator, as seen throughout history. And it's very bad news for Americans, given how it tends to play out as one step follows another. But it's trouble as well for the rest of the world, because the US is demonstrating that what it aims to do domestically, it is keen to export to the rest of the world. And it all starts with the fact that Trump is pushing the old red scare into high gear. Oh, and about that reflecting pool ... even that stupidity is a symptom. Let's discuss.

When President Trump threatens thunder and fury, and then announces that negotiations are under way - he rather expects to be taken seriously. And he's used to the illusion of that, because world leaders won't mock in public, and the media often report his words as though they represent more than the reality. But as he increases the exact same dance, the sheer absurdity of the presentation becomes harder and harder to ignore. And now the Iranians are gleefully mocking his latest turn, surely aware that - in so doing - they are merely voicing what the whole world is thinking. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday July 31st 2026 President Donald Trump announces that his Board of Peace has emerged triumphant with a breakthrough in Gaza. As you would expect, it's a bit more complicated than he would have you believe. Brazil denies visas to US state department officials because Trump's America is seeking to interfere in the forthcoming elections there - one of the most direct acts of defiance from a South American country. And we get a sense of the challenge for Trump in the coming mid-term elections, as the media machine of MAGA influencers, such a driving force in the last two years, seems to be struggling to hold its audience.

Many countries across the world have held inquiries into what worked and what didn't during the Covid-19 pandemic. Some have been better than others, but none of them looked like the complete sham accountability exercise that saw Anthony Fauci required to testify to Rand Paul's committee. So what should we have been talking about, and why has the United States decided uniquely that it is determined to be the least-well prepared for any future similar crisis? Let's discuss.

Following Trump's reportedly successful meeting with Ukraine's President Zelensky, many reporters are talking about how various factors are 'turning' Trump, or 'warming him' towards Ukraine and against Putin's Russia. At this stage in the Trump presidency, with all that has happened in the last year and a half - such commentary is baffling at best. Only possible by those who have a problem understanding just how much the game has changed. Let's discuss.

President Trump was in talks to discuss all his options in massively escalating the war against Iran over the weekend. It turns out, they were a lot more limited than he had imagined. Now, confronted as he has finally been, with the enfeeblement he has brought upon the US military, he must surely understand how few options he really has, and how bad all of them are. So suddenly diplomacy is back in vogue, and the US has to find a way to spin an obvious defeat into a victory. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week on Friday July 24th 2026. President Trump is furious about the rapid leaks about all the mis-steps and u-turns he's making over the Iran war. But they are many, and serious, and reveal that his push for military escalation is based on a delusion. The Saudis are furious about Trump agreeing a nuclear deal with them and then AFTER it was publicly announced, tacked on a condition that they find impossible to stomach. South East Asian countries are furious about Trump landing massive costs and consequences on them without apparently caring. And Trump has delivered the latest version of his global tariffs operation - and done so by slandering everyone for being just peachy with the idea of modern slavery.

President Trump's biggest triumph, according to some, was to get Israel and Hamas to agree to his Gaza peace deal. And then, to follow that up with the creation of the Board of Peace to oversee an astonishingly ambitious transformation of the territory from wartime disaster to thriving economic centre. Since then, it seems that the driving energy behind the plan has pretty much disappeared, leaving Gaza in as bad a position as ever before. Let's discuss.

As Trump's attacks on Iran resume, and his rhetoric escalates, reports are emerging that officials in the Pentagon are just not telling the White House, and Pete Hegseth, the truth about how depleted the US arsenal actually has become. Why? Largely because Hegseth's purges of senior figures have trained everyone to understand that the bearers of bad news, or even just cold reality as it exists outside of Donald Trump's wishful thinking, generally get fired. So it could well be that this escalation is the biggest mistake of the war so far. Let's discuss.

Canada is having a wildfire problem - a huge wildfire problem right now. In the past, it has collaborated with its southern neighbour over such moments - a reciprocal arrangement that has had lots of activation in recent years. But this time it's different. This time President Trump is seeing the large amount of unpleasant smoke making its way across the border and afflicting US cities, and using that to renew his economic threats and to mutter once again about the '51st State'. Obviously, it's not really about air pollution. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday July 17th 2026. President Trump addresses the nation and declassifies documents to show just how vulnerable US elections are. The documents don't show what he says they do - but that won't matter for what comes next. The Iran war is back in full flow - analysts are detecting a new strategy in the US military operation, and Iran's factional infighting took an interesting turn. And manly man's man Pete Hegseth doesn't think men in the US military are quite manly enough. Also, a passing nod to the UK getting a new prime minister, and the potential fascinating World Cup moment that has nothing to do with football.

President Donald Trump outraged much of the world yesterday when he announced his latest bold and audacious venture - a Strait of Hormuz protection racket. The US would promise to protect ships wanting to transit through the Strait, in the face of hostility by the Iranians, in return for a toll charged at a massive 20% of the value of the ship's cargo. The gulf states particularly were furious, and clearly made their displeasure known - with the result of one of the fastest u-turns ever. But also gathering clouds for a big announcement on Thursday. Let's discuss.

The Strait of Hormuz is the focus point once again. Iran has declared it closed. President Donald Trump has declared it closed to Iranian shipping with the reinstatement of the US blockade. But, this time, the US will escort ships out - for an extremely large fee. Seems like a return to how it was before, but it's different. This is no longer a war of economic attrition, it is a fierce fight over who controls the Strait from now on. That is established as the question that will ultimately show who won this war. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday July 10th 2026. President Trump floats what is obviously going to become his way out of the Iran war - and it's as bad as you would think. Far-right political leader Marine Le Pen has her sentence for embezzling reduced, meaning she can now stand as a candidate for president next year - a post the polls suggest she will win, which would transform France on the world stage. And far-right political leader Nigel Farage calls a special by-election, resigning his seat and determined to fight to re-win it against all comers in a special people versus the establishment election. Only, it seems to have backfired horribly almost within minutes.

stir - but the real events of substance were coming once again from Iran, and from the Strait of Hormuz. The deal, the memorandum of understanding, is full-on disintegrating, amidst accusations on both sides of non-compliance by the other side. By the written document, it seems that Iran has the stronger case, although its way of dealing with that (attacking vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz) is not supported by anyone but themselves. Can Trump rescue this, given his lack of options? Let's discuss.

The much-awaited NATO summit in Turkey has begun, and Trump went in firing off all the usual threats, statements and attacks that generated ... the usual headlines. But behind the Trump show, there are real stories to be told about what this summit is about. And they mostly come out of the quiet places where Trump isn't, where other NATO members are coming to realise the opportunity that a US exit gives them to completely reimagine how they plan to fight a future war. Let's discuss.

Trump had the perfect term to make a difference as US president - the year of the 250th anniversary of the United States, and the hosting of the World Cup tournament. Having underwhelmed on the first of those, he found a way to completely poison the US team's standing in the latter, to show himself up as a cheater to the entire world, which is watching the tournament closely, and to throw FIFA, and the game generally, into crisis. That's quite a lot for one phone call. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday July 3rd 2026. The Ukraine war is intensifying just days before a big NATO summit where Trump has made it clear he will be going in fiery mood, to punish those who dare to deny him. This comes days after his administration prevented Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from heading back to her earthquake-stricken country, because it wouldn't be helpful for Trump's Venezuela strategy. As Americans across the world prepare to celebrate July 4th, one country has stood out by disinviting US officials from the usually large events within its own borders. And one group, at least, has gone very quiet over the disclosure of how much money Trump has been raking in since becoming president.

President Donald Trump had one job in relation to the 250th anniversary of the United States. Hold a great big party to celebrate the founding mythology of America, focus on the things that bring people together, and remind them why they value their nation's remarkable experiment. Obviously that was out of the question. But now we hear that he is furious that crowds for his first rally were so small - and he is determined that his actual July 4th very similar rally should be better. All this while money has been flowing around the event in highly dubious ways. Let's discuss.

We know that President Donald Trump really cared about the birthright citizenship issue - because he made an unprecedented in-court appearance at the Supreme Court when it was being heard, and talked about it often as being a top issue for his administration. But sadly for the power of wishful thinking, the blatant unconstitutionality of what he wanted won out, and the court handed him another huge defeat - his second after the tariffs case. The actual issue is nuanced, and most countries across the world do not mimic the US birthright citizenship approach. But it was fundamentally about what sort of country America sees itself as. And for a number of reasons, that is very much in doubt, regardless of this case. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday 26th June, 2026. President Trump is back on the tariff trail, as he announces that all countries that dare to implement digital services taxes will be hit by 100% tariffs. Europe has been hit by massive heat waves many degrees above what it would normally experience at this time of year. So of course that means everyone's arguing. Ukraine is hitting Russia hard, and in particular has provoked a state of emergency in Russian-occupied Crimea as it has targeted it with massive drone strikes. And one duty being claimed by President Trump promises to put the whole world on tenterhooks worrying about the most awkward moment that might be coming their way.

When Trump came into office, everyone in public life across the world apparently started to mimic the nonsense, to talk as though Trumpian fantasy was real, even desirable. A process that one commentator has labelled 'farce politik'. But increasingly NATO's Mark Rutte is looking isolated as the only person left who seems to believe in such a process. Europeans, Gulf States, and even Trump's own party (well, baby steps maybe) are discarding the fantasies and calling out the reality for what it is. Not just allies, but also enemies such as Iran, who are working out how to use the fantasy to its best advantage. Let's discuss.

For someone who really needs this deal to work, Trump seems to be going out of his way to sabotage it. It's a reflection of two things - one, he just can't help himself. Whether it's Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, President Zelensky, or the Iranians, he needs to be insulting someone. But, more importantly, two - it's a reflection of the deeply flawed deal that is the best he could get - and his incentive to do whatever he can to appear to be in control, even when the evidence suggests otherwise. It's setting up a looming crisis moment. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday June 19th 2026. The backlash against Trump's ceasefire deal with Iran continues to intensify amongst the Republicans, and derision of the one-sidedness of it spreads worldwide. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is hearing the clock ticking loudly on his premiership as his chief rival, Andy Burnham, wins his by-election and enters Parliament next week. Ukraine hits Moscow hard, and it underlines once again how the tide is turning against Vladimir Putin in the war he had imagined would be over in two or three days. And President Trump gives up the fight against one of his most hated enemies. Ron Bailey's Bookhttps://www.amazon.co.uk/Institutionalised-Deceit-Taking-Westminster-Governance-ebook/dp/B0H378FX79 My interview with Ron in 2019 https://mallenbaker.net/podcast/ron-bailey-successful-campaigns-against-powerful-opponents 

Even as he was signing the Iran ceasefire deal, and talking more positively about Ukraine, Trump's first steps towards de facto walking away from NATO was being related to alliance defence ministers by Pete Hegseth. While berating the alliance for not spending enough, and not jumping to command on the Iran war, the US steps to reduce the forces committed to any action should Article 5 be invoked (i.e. Russia attacks NATO) were being confirmed. All in a tone of sneering superiority from the man who just lost a war. Let's discuss.

When Iran sent over its first list of demands to the Trump Administration, it was reportedly treated with derision - hopelessly unrealistic. And yet, every time when revised versions were being swapped, the Iranian demands remained - exactly the same. Now we have the final memorandum of understanding text - an earlier draft published by CNN, and literally just a couple of hours ago, the official version released by the White House. And it seems to be more or less every Iranian demand in full. UPDATE: An amended segment of the Strait of Hormuz was shot for this video, as it was the main point of substance that had changed between the two versions. Other differences exist however, and the wording on the Iran nuclear commitment is clarified to include procurement of nuclear weapons, not just development of them. But the CNN draft was the one that was digitally signed by Trump and the Iranian leadership, although the amended one will be signed on Friday.

President Donald Trump got his birthday deal - well, maybe. So far the text hasn't been released, so we only have the word of the two different sides, and their words sharply contrast with each other. Let's look at what we know, what we think we know, and why this seems far more a positive step for Iran than it does the United States. If Trump is celebrating, it is likely that, at last, he sees a way out of the morass. And he will assume he can spin it as a win, even if it's anything but. Let's discuss.

Lots of us have observed the incompetence, the trashing of US constitutional norms, the undermining of democracy, and all the rest of it - and concluded that once Americans actually notice that this is all happening, they will obviously react firmly and fully against the administration of President Donald Trump. An article this weekend in the Atlantic, based on a piece of research into how conservative Trump-supporters actually think, suggests this narrative is completely misguided. It explains how that world view has made sense of its support for the world of Trump - and it brings massive implications for what happens next. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday June 12th 2026. The ceasefire deal that President Trump conjured as the reason for pulling back from invading Kharg island - the one that both sides have been giving wholly contradictory reports about - is now being flagged by mediators and Iranian political leaders as being very close. But it still seems as likely it could unravel completely, because the language and temperaments of both sides are still so far apart. The politics of the United Kingdom continues to disintegrate, with the new potential prime minister Andy Burnham showing what he's made of - it's not wholly encouraging. And the World Cup is under way - and once again Trump's America has shown a very special knack for getting in its own way on events that should have been a huge opportunity for it.

President Trump had gone back into bombing Iran, because this time he was going to grab all of Iran's oil, and invade Kharg Island and force them to agree to his deal. And they hit back, and refused to cave - and then suddenly (and not for the first time), he blinked. And now the attacks are off, and a deal is very much fully agreed this time definitely certainly probably. What's really going on? Let's discuss.

In this Q&A video, with questions submitted by Patreon supporters, we talk about the possibility that President Donald Trump will choose to invade Cuba, or will move towards serious authoritarian moves against his political opponents. And, speaking of those opponents, why CAN'T Democrats appear to provide more robust opposition to Trump's ongoing actions? What are the options for the end of the Ukraine war, and how fast could Ukraine join Europe? Should the US adopt an industrial policy to compete better with China? And, in the UK, how on Earth did the Green Party suddenly get to be taken seriously enough to rise in the polling? Let's discuss!

A major survey of global opinion, from the citizens of countries that make up 90% of the total world population - has found that Trump's America is now viewed as the biggest threat to the world. And it's not even close. Behind them is Russia, and China, and everyone else you might think deserving of extreme caution. There is more bad news for Trump, and important news for democracies in the survey - and it represents what we've already seen, a hardening of opinion against Trump, and a growing appetite for leaders to stand up to him. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday June 5th, 2026: In an interview with CNN, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader confirms some of the detail of the deadlocked talks with Trump that he's not been admitting. Marco Rubio sets off ripples of concern over Greenland, and NATO, even as the US ambassador to the EU is trying, somewhat feebly, to dismiss them. And Trump has found a new front for slapping tariffs on the rest of the world - and it rests upon a key platform within - um - the ESG movement. Possibly he hasn't noticed that part. Let's discuss.

Congress just passed a motion to restrict President Trump's Iran war powers - something that is a significant embarrassment as he struggles to get a peace deal with the other side. And the Gulf state of Oman is refusing to be cowed by his threat to bomb them if they go ahead with doing a deal with Iran on the Strait of Hormuz. And Israel continues to bomb Hezbollah in spite of Trump's instructions that they should not, because it jeopardises everything else he's trying to achieve. There is just one silver lining, but it's one that Trump is unlikely to appreciate ... let's discuss.

One day after another, it seems that not much is going right for the administration of President Donald Trump. The Iran war is the big quagmire, of course. But increasingly, all those other things that got pushed in - they are hitting a wall. Like Trump's massive slush fund for supporters. And the renaming of the Kennedy Centre and its reshaping around Trump's wishes. And the America 250 celebrations, which have turned into total fiasco. According to Politico, this is now an exhausted operation stuck in a mess of its own making. Let's discuss.

Ignore all the blather about the 'Art of the Deal' - why is Donald Trump in real life actually such a terrible dealmaker? And if that's the case, how did he establish a reputation for being good in business, to the extent where in 2016 a majority of the American public believed it to be true? In this video we look at the key aspects that the professionals say makes for a good negotiator, and observe how Trump fails on all of them. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday May 29th 2026 - President Trump is touting how close the US and Iran now are to the final deal. Well, let's not get too excited. A Russian drone injures two in NATO alliance member Romania and it highlights how difficult responding to grey area provocations by Putin is going to be. And the last month - and the coming year - are likely to see outlier hot weather thanks to climate change and an unusually strong El Nino - so why was Trump saying it had just all been proven to be wrong?

The US needs all the allies it can get amongst the gulf states, you would think. And yet yesterday, President Donald Trump casually threatened to bomb one of the most longstanding ones - Oman - if they dared to do some sort of deal with Iran over managing traffic that traverses the Strait of Hormuz. Add to that the lack of momentum and energy that represents Trump's previous initiative, the Board of Peace - and the Gaza problem it was supposed to resolve. And add to that the fact that both Ukraine and Russia have concluded that, should negotiations between them start up in a more serious tone, the US is NOT the mediating partner they want. It seems that the entire world is increasingly turning away from the spectacle of Trump, as it seeks serious partners and equally serious ways forward to address their all-too-serious problems. Let's discuss.

One minute, President Donald Trump is breathlessly announcing to the world that a deal is on the verge of being signed - the next he is in full pace retreat as the details begin to leak out, and so many people conclude that it is an incredibly weak deal for the United States. So having thought he was about to escape his predicament, he is right back in the mess. As a result, the US attacked Iranian operations. Trump attacked the media. None of it is getting him out of a trap very much of his own making. Let's discuss.

Artificial Intelligence is, by its very nature, a transformative technology. But right now, it seems to be being driven by characters who are happy to set themselves up in messianic roles, to embrace the idea of creative destruction without regard for who and what gets destroyed. It's the sort of situation where smart, enlightened government might take a part. Not so, says President Donald Trump. Maybe yes so, says Pope Leo. It's a serious subject, to be considered carefully, so let's discuss.

After numerous false signals where President Donald Trump would claim a deal was close, only to see Iran deny any such thing - it seems as though all parties are now suggesting that there has been movement, and maybe - just maybe - a deal could be done. According to reporting, the shape of such a deal seems remarkably based on Iranian proposals that Trump dismissed out of hand just weeks ago. So it seems as though the version of what finally gets signed is going to be a lot closer to the "US surrender" version and less like the "total Iran capitulation" version - which makes sense based on the dynamics so far. But can the US under narcissist Trump really bring itself to sign such a thing? Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday May 22nd, 2026: President Trump is ratcheting up the rhetoric and moving the pieces in place for an apparent attack of some sort on Cuba. His own party's lawmakers are in revolt about his latest scheme to hand out approaching two billion dollars of cash to anyone who supported him so much they were prepared to break the law for it. And following Trump's summit last week with Xi Jinping, his place was taken this week by Vladimir Putin, and the language on how they see the world was notably different.

Now that the 'excitement' of his summit meeting with China's Xi Jinping has worn off, President Donald Trump is left back exactly where he was before - staring at the Iran war, and clearly somewhat clueless as to what he can do next to seek to bring it to a successful conclusion. He has tried bluffing. He has tried bombing. What's left? Well, he described today an exciting new approach that he was taking, all assisted by his patience and lack of urgency. Well, that's his story anyway. Let's discuss.