Mallen Baker: Faultlines

For someone who really needs this deal to work, Trump seems to be going out of his way to sabotage it. It's a reflection of two things - one, he just can't help himself. Whether it's Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, President Zelensky, or the Iranians, he needs to be insulting someone. But, more importantly, two - it's a reflection of the deeply flawed deal that is the best he could get - and his incentive to do whatever he can to appear to be in control, even when the evidence suggests otherwise. It's setting up a looming crisis moment. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday June 19th 2026. The backlash against Trump's ceasefire deal with Iran continues to intensify amongst the Republicans, and derision of the one-sidedness of it spreads worldwide. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is hearing the clock ticking loudly on his premiership as his chief rival, Andy Burnham, wins his by-election and enters Parliament next week. Ukraine hits Moscow hard, and it underlines once again how the tide is turning against Vladimir Putin in the war he had imagined would be over in two or three days. And President Trump gives up the fight against one of his most hated enemies. Ron Bailey's Bookhttps://www.amazon.co.uk/Institutionalised-Deceit-Taking-Westminster-Governance-ebook/dp/B0H378FX79 My interview with Ron in 2019 https://mallenbaker.net/podcast/ron-bailey-successful-campaigns-against-powerful-opponents 

Even as he was signing the Iran ceasefire deal, and talking more positively about Ukraine, Trump's first steps towards de facto walking away from NATO was being related to alliance defence ministers by Pete Hegseth. While berating the alliance for not spending enough, and not jumping to command on the Iran war, the US steps to reduce the forces committed to any action should Article 5 be invoked (i.e. Russia attacks NATO) were being confirmed. All in a tone of sneering superiority from the man who just lost a war. Let's discuss.

When Iran sent over its first list of demands to the Trump Administration, it was reportedly treated with derision - hopelessly unrealistic. And yet, every time when revised versions were being swapped, the Iranian demands remained - exactly the same. Now we have the final memorandum of understanding text - an earlier draft published by CNN, and literally just a couple of hours ago, the official version released by the White House. And it seems to be more or less every Iranian demand in full. UPDATE: An amended segment of the Strait of Hormuz was shot for this video, as it was the main point of substance that had changed between the two versions. Other differences exist however, and the wording on the Iran nuclear commitment is clarified to include procurement of nuclear weapons, not just development of them. But the CNN draft was the one that was digitally signed by Trump and the Iranian leadership, although the amended one will be signed on Friday.

President Donald Trump got his birthday deal - well, maybe. So far the text hasn't been released, so we only have the word of the two different sides, and their words sharply contrast with each other. Let's look at what we know, what we think we know, and why this seems far more a positive step for Iran than it does the United States. If Trump is celebrating, it is likely that, at last, he sees a way out of the morass. And he will assume he can spin it as a win, even if it's anything but. Let's discuss.

Lots of us have observed the incompetence, the trashing of US constitutional norms, the undermining of democracy, and all the rest of it - and concluded that once Americans actually notice that this is all happening, they will obviously react firmly and fully against the administration of President Donald Trump. An article this weekend in the Atlantic, based on a piece of research into how conservative Trump-supporters actually think, suggests this narrative is completely misguided. It explains how that world view has made sense of its support for the world of Trump - and it brings massive implications for what happens next. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday June 12th 2026. The ceasefire deal that President Trump conjured as the reason for pulling back from invading Kharg island - the one that both sides have been giving wholly contradictory reports about - is now being flagged by mediators and Iranian political leaders as being very close. But it still seems as likely it could unravel completely, because the language and temperaments of both sides are still so far apart. The politics of the United Kingdom continues to disintegrate, with the new potential prime minister Andy Burnham showing what he's made of - it's not wholly encouraging. And the World Cup is under way - and once again Trump's America has shown a very special knack for getting in its own way on events that should have been a huge opportunity for it.

President Trump had gone back into bombing Iran, because this time he was going to grab all of Iran's oil, and invade Kharg Island and force them to agree to his deal. And they hit back, and refused to cave - and then suddenly (and not for the first time), he blinked. And now the attacks are off, and a deal is very much fully agreed this time definitely certainly probably. What's really going on? Let's discuss.

In this Q&A video, with questions submitted by Patreon supporters, we talk about the possibility that President Donald Trump will choose to invade Cuba, or will move towards serious authoritarian moves against his political opponents. And, speaking of those opponents, why CAN'T Democrats appear to provide more robust opposition to Trump's ongoing actions? What are the options for the end of the Ukraine war, and how fast could Ukraine join Europe? Should the US adopt an industrial policy to compete better with China? And, in the UK, how on Earth did the Green Party suddenly get to be taken seriously enough to rise in the polling? Let's discuss!

A major survey of global opinion, from the citizens of countries that make up 90% of the total world population - has found that Trump's America is now viewed as the biggest threat to the world. And it's not even close. Behind them is Russia, and China, and everyone else you might think deserving of extreme caution. There is more bad news for Trump, and important news for democracies in the survey - and it represents what we've already seen, a hardening of opinion against Trump, and a growing appetite for leaders to stand up to him. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday June 5th, 2026: In an interview with CNN, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader confirms some of the detail of the deadlocked talks with Trump that he's not been admitting. Marco Rubio sets off ripples of concern over Greenland, and NATO, even as the US ambassador to the EU is trying, somewhat feebly, to dismiss them. And Trump has found a new front for slapping tariffs on the rest of the world - and it rests upon a key platform within - um - the ESG movement. Possibly he hasn't noticed that part. Let's discuss.

Congress just passed a motion to restrict President Trump's Iran war powers - something that is a significant embarrassment as he struggles to get a peace deal with the other side. And the Gulf state of Oman is refusing to be cowed by his threat to bomb them if they go ahead with doing a deal with Iran on the Strait of Hormuz. And Israel continues to bomb Hezbollah in spite of Trump's instructions that they should not, because it jeopardises everything else he's trying to achieve. There is just one silver lining, but it's one that Trump is unlikely to appreciate ... let's discuss.

One day after another, it seems that not much is going right for the administration of President Donald Trump. The Iran war is the big quagmire, of course. But increasingly, all those other things that got pushed in - they are hitting a wall. Like Trump's massive slush fund for supporters. And the renaming of the Kennedy Centre and its reshaping around Trump's wishes. And the America 250 celebrations, which have turned into total fiasco. According to Politico, this is now an exhausted operation stuck in a mess of its own making. Let's discuss.

Ignore all the blather about the 'Art of the Deal' - why is Donald Trump in real life actually such a terrible dealmaker? And if that's the case, how did he establish a reputation for being good in business, to the extent where in 2016 a majority of the American public believed it to be true? In this video we look at the key aspects that the professionals say makes for a good negotiator, and observe how Trump fails on all of them. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday May 29th 2026 - President Trump is touting how close the US and Iran now are to the final deal. Well, let's not get too excited. A Russian drone injures two in NATO alliance member Romania and it highlights how difficult responding to grey area provocations by Putin is going to be. And the last month - and the coming year - are likely to see outlier hot weather thanks to climate change and an unusually strong El Nino - so why was Trump saying it had just all been proven to be wrong?

The US needs all the allies it can get amongst the gulf states, you would think. And yet yesterday, President Donald Trump casually threatened to bomb one of the most longstanding ones - Oman - if they dared to do some sort of deal with Iran over managing traffic that traverses the Strait of Hormuz. Add to that the lack of momentum and energy that represents Trump's previous initiative, the Board of Peace - and the Gaza problem it was supposed to resolve. And add to that the fact that both Ukraine and Russia have concluded that, should negotiations between them start up in a more serious tone, the US is NOT the mediating partner they want. It seems that the entire world is increasingly turning away from the spectacle of Trump, as it seeks serious partners and equally serious ways forward to address their all-too-serious problems. Let's discuss.

One minute, President Donald Trump is breathlessly announcing to the world that a deal is on the verge of being signed - the next he is in full pace retreat as the details begin to leak out, and so many people conclude that it is an incredibly weak deal for the United States. So having thought he was about to escape his predicament, he is right back in the mess. As a result, the US attacked Iranian operations. Trump attacked the media. None of it is getting him out of a trap very much of his own making. Let's discuss.

Artificial Intelligence is, by its very nature, a transformative technology. But right now, it seems to be being driven by characters who are happy to set themselves up in messianic roles, to embrace the idea of creative destruction without regard for who and what gets destroyed. It's the sort of situation where smart, enlightened government might take a part. Not so, says President Donald Trump. Maybe yes so, says Pope Leo. It's a serious subject, to be considered carefully, so let's discuss.

After numerous false signals where President Donald Trump would claim a deal was close, only to see Iran deny any such thing - it seems as though all parties are now suggesting that there has been movement, and maybe - just maybe - a deal could be done. According to reporting, the shape of such a deal seems remarkably based on Iranian proposals that Trump dismissed out of hand just weeks ago. So it seems as though the version of what finally gets signed is going to be a lot closer to the "US surrender" version and less like the "total Iran capitulation" version - which makes sense based on the dynamics so far. But can the US under narcissist Trump really bring itself to sign such a thing? Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday May 22nd, 2026: President Trump is ratcheting up the rhetoric and moving the pieces in place for an apparent attack of some sort on Cuba. His own party's lawmakers are in revolt about his latest scheme to hand out approaching two billion dollars of cash to anyone who supported him so much they were prepared to break the law for it. And following Trump's summit last week with Xi Jinping, his place was taken this week by Vladimir Putin, and the language on how they see the world was notably different.

Now that the 'excitement' of his summit meeting with China's Xi Jinping has worn off, President Donald Trump is left back exactly where he was before - staring at the Iran war, and clearly somewhat clueless as to what he can do next to seek to bring it to a successful conclusion. He has tried bluffing. He has tried bombing. What's left? Well, he described today an exciting new approach that he was taking, all assisted by his patience and lack of urgency. Well, that's his story anyway. Let's discuss.

An investigation by the New York Times has revealed how Trump's United States has been pushing a maximalist agenda for control on various aspects of Greenland in the working group talks that followed the grudging disavowal of the use of force earlier in the year. Those involved in the talks say that Trump has not given up on taking over the island and absorbing it into the USA. That being the case, how far can Denmark and Greenland continue to behave as though they're negotiating with a good faith actor? It seems that, while prime minister Nielsen is robust in public, some of those involved in the talks fear they're trying to give as much as they can in order to dissuade Trump from invading. Let's discuss.

While citizens of the United States fret about having to pay more at the pump for gasoline, President Donald Trump's illegal war on Iran is having massive consequences in many other parts of the world. The decision of this one man to abandon ongoing talks that were said to be making progress to use the military for an all-out attack instead - that is leading to tens of millions of people to be thrown into starvation who otherwise would not have been. While we care about how US people are feeling, since they are the ones who will soon be voting, it's important we don't lose sight of how this is playing out elsewhere, and particularly with the people it is hitting the hardest. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday May 15th 2026: President Trump is forced to explain to MAGA why what they heard with their own ears from Xi Jinping wasn't what they heard at all - even as the evidence is mounting that his summit was not a success. Britain's Keir Starmer is fighting for his political future, as the UK's political system disintegrates. And the US makes a sudden announcement that it is cancelling the sending of troops to Poland, almost as they were about to get on the plane. And yet Poland is supposed to be one of their favourites - so what's going on?

President Donald Trump is very used to deploying fiery rhetoric against his enemies to seek to cow them into submission, even though he's found his brand of bluster to be losing its effectiveness in recent months. But it seems that China's President Xi Jinping has found the more effective formula, as his warnings in relation to Taiwan, delivered during today's state visit to Beijing, had the effect of making Trump refuse to answer journalist questions on the topic at all. It highlighted just how focused the Chinese have been in setting parameters for the relationship with Trump. But it also misses the reality that both leaders are fighting headwinds that are making their lives more difficult, and the future for their countries less certain. Let's discuss.

Later this coming week, China's Xi Jinping will be hosting President Donald Trump in Beijing for their delayed summit meeting. It's hard to ignore the fact that, since the last time they met, the US seems to have been bent on destroying its own leverage at every opportunity. It is caught in Trump's illegal war in Iran. His big punitive tariff policies came crashing down. And he has been single-handedly driving all of America's former allies, to some degree, into the embrace of China as the more stable alternative partner. So what will they be aiming to achieve in this meeting, and how will that impact the rest of the world? Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday May 8th, 2026. It turns out that President Donald Trump's about-turn on Project Freedom had even less to do with his fake stories than we knew. Trump's replacement tariffs for the ones that were judged to be illegal have turned out to also be illegal. The UK prime minister Keir Starmer is fighting for his political survival after the UK local elections were exactly what the polls had said they would be - in other words, terrible for Labour. And President Putin is to preside over a much scaled down Victory day parade in Moscow as he is apparently terrified that new Ukrainian drones will gatecrash the party.

President Donald Trump has 'paused' so-called Project Freedom. Supposedly, it's because the Pakistanis asked him to. Nothing at all to do with the reality that almost no ships had actually gotten out of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of it i.e. it was a complete failure. The line is that a deal is SO close that it's worth pausing the project (not the blockade, mind, because that's mostly being successful) to see if final agreement is reached. And yet, even as the media and the stock market takes Trump's bait again, the mood music from the other side isn't exactly encouraging. Let's discuss.

There's no doubt that the thousand ships that are stranded in the Strait of Hormuz need rescuing - and if it could be achieved, it would be a tremendous success. But by announcing that the US would be doing just that raised the stakes for President Trump because he set himself an extremely difficult, some would say impossible, task and, in so doing, likely set himself up for humiliation. In any case, it's been a day of claim and counterclaim, shots being exchanged, and the potential for the re-escalation of the war back into full swing. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday May the first, 2026. Iran presents its new peace proposal, and it does not make President Donald Trump happy - even while Congress ponders whether to engage with the looming war powers deadline. Meanwhile Trump adds Italy and Spain to the list of countries he wants to pull US troops out of as he looks to punish those who didn't fall in line on demand. A Supreme court judgement could lead to a flurry of gerrymandering that will render the 2028 elections a truly fixed election. And I answer a viewer question, on media companies and culture wars and democratic decline.

German Chancellor Merz made an entirely reasonable observation - Iran had humiliated the United States, and was being much more skilful in its negotiations strategy. This is a widespread perception across the world, but it made President Donald Trump utterly furious. He spat his rage into not one, but two posts on social media, and he let it be known he is reviewing whether to pull US troops from Germany. Arguably, such a move would be the beginning of the end for NATO, as currently constituted. Is he serious? And what does the world conclude from this latest example of seeking to bully compliance in word and deed across the world? Well, to all appearances, most of the world thinks the act is wearing pretty thin. Let's discuss.

King Charles spoke to Congress, and then again at President Donald Trump's own banquet. He impressed many with his skilful diplomacy, and also that while keeping the right side of his host he nevertheless was able to touch on a number of the central faultlines that have opened up in US politics and society. Let's go through the key points of what he covered, why it was effective, why it's different to what the political leaders of Europe should be doing, and whether it will actually make a difference.

The world is changing - especially in the fact that a growing number of world leaders are prepared to speak the truth in public, caring little any more how it will land with that one individual in the White House. The latest evidence is the comments by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said that Iran had humiliated the United States, and was showing great skill in its negotiations that were not reflected on the other side. This as Trump had his lies about the Iranians wanting talks exposed for what they were, and hence the conflict has slipped into a phoney peace phase. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, and the impact on the world is becoming more severe by the day. Let's discuss.

At the White House Correspondents' Dinner we saw the latest in a growing line of incidents of political violence directed at President Donald Trump and other members of his cabinet. Like previous attempts, this one failed. But each time nonetheless pushes the United States further and further into the sort of polarised mindset you would associate with civil war. Can the country halt the downward slide, or will the various players simply follow the immediate incentives in front of them and keep feeding the beast? Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday April 24th 2026. A leaked email shows that President Trump is looking for new ways to bully the world, and specifically punish NATO, now that his favourite tariff weapons have been blunted. The US extends the Iran war ceasefire, although Iran hasn’t agreed to do likewise, so what happens next could go completely off script. The Trump administration seems to be backing down from its big fight with the AI company Anthropic, now it just released a tool that would be really REALLY useful. And one year on, the Trump meme coin seems not to be the hot property that it once was.

The theory, as expounded by Trump's former strategic adviser Steve Bannon, was that the Trump administration could utterly change America by 'flooding the zone' with so many radical actions that the opposition, and the media, would not be able to keep up. But what Bannon and others forgot was that actions have consequences. And a flood of action could mean a veritable tsunami further down the line. That seems to be exactly where we are, and could be the reason why Trump is coming across as increasingly unhinged. Let's discuss.

One of the biggest barriers preventing serious work on an Iran negotiated settlement is the fact that the Iranians have so little trust when it comes to President Donald Trump, and the Americans generally under his rule. He has, after all, while proclaiming 'the art of the deal' shown that he will refuse to honour former deals - even ones that he signed. He will change them after the event whenever someone annoys him. And he will lie about the progress of deal making while it's in negotiation, with a daily drama based on blatant lies. Iran is the first time this trust deficit has emerged as a major factor - but it is infecting how the US is seen across the world. So there is a lot more to come. Let's discuss.

After a painful year and a quarter of flattering and pleading with Trump to stay the right side of the Ukraine war, the president's obvious predisposition for Putin's Russia, and his constant insulting and erratic behaviour, has finally led to the inevitable. Ukraine has had enough. In the last few days, President Zelensky has been speaking plainly and critically about the Trump administration in ways he would not have dared to do before. In this, he joins Canada's Mark Carney and growing numbers of European leaders who will no longer filter all public discussion through the lens of one man in the White House. Let's discuss.

President Trump thought he was being forceful in declining to drop the blockade on Iran's vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran had declared it open. But now Iran has reminded him that it still is very happy to walk away from a deal if it doesn't suit Iran's interests - and it does so knowing that, for all his bluff and threats, he really can't. So now he is starting to talk about Pakistan asking him to lift the blockade - the same excuse he used the last time he delivered on Iran's demands while pretending not to. It's 'the Art of the Deal', but with Iranian characteristics. Let's discuss.

The sight of Donald Trump's America throwing everything it has (nearly) at a smaller, but smarter and more determined adversary - this has been a goldmine of data for Xi Jinping's China, as it considers its options with regard to Taiwan. And, of course, it has likewise been crucially important for Taiwan itself - especially since both Trump's Iran war, and the Ukraine war, have been examples of the smaller defensive force finding effective ways to hit back against the much larger aggressor. China and Taiwan are in a two-horse race to learn the right lessons, and act on them. Even as President Trump seems determined to learn no lessons at all. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for April 17, 2026: Iran is demonstrating its leverage as the US pushes Israel into a ceasefire with Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz is magically open for business. But it's complicated - and not least by Trump's refusal to reciprocate. President Trump continues his other war with the Pope and seems to be losing bigly. As American corporations have been emboldened by Trump's disregard for ethical guardrails, a massive finding in a French court that sends a corporate CEO to jail is a significant line in the sand.

Ever since he became president again, Donald Trump has been enthusiastically burning through any goodwill he might have had, or indeed that the United States might have had. But the pace of the destruction has been massive in the last couple of weeks, since the impacts of the Iran war started to be felt, and since Trump announced his blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The number of former supporters and allies who have turned their backs is truly impressive. Let's discuss.

By all accounts, right up until the moment when Viktor Orban gave his concession speech, things were tense in Hungary's election. After 16 years of autocratic rule - would there be a rabbit pulled out of the hat, an attempt to discard the result ... or what? Well, none of the above - just a massive victory for Peter Magyar and the dawn of a new age for the country. Meanwhile, Trump's MAGA movement is dismayed, having seen Orban as its best respresentative in Europe. So what does this all mean for those opposing MAGA-inspired populism across the continent and, of course, the United States? Let's discuss.

It was all but inevitable that the talks were going to fail - Iran's position, as correctly described in the 10-point list reported publicly (despite the Trump administration's denial) and President Donald Trump's own 15-point list, were so far apart, and with both sides convinced they won, neither was much willing to compromise. But that leaves Trump with a problem, with an unpopular war, a major supply chain pinch point still offline, and a lot of his friends and allies telling him he has to clean up his own mess. So he has publicly declared for the operation of clearing the Strait of Hormuz. This is where it's going to get really messy. Let's discuss.

The Trump team of crack negotiators head to Pakistan for talks, but will the Iranians even show up? Anthropic announces its new AI could basically hack all the systems on the planet without breaking a sweat - so they're only releasing it to all the companies who need to learn how to fix those systems fast. Hungary votes this weekend and we'll find out whether Orban's sixteen-year autocracy can still be defeated at polls that have been heavily weighted in his favour. And reports emerge that the Pentagon threatened the Pope if he didn't fall in behind its planned military adventurism. With one official saying they could even set up an anti-pope if he didn't cave in. Because yes - that's the world we live in now.

More and more world figures, leaders, commentators, are agreeing in public that the US seems to have lost the Iran war. And that includes oil company executives, horrified that Trump seems to have accepted Iran will remain in control of the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump is clearly not happy about it - he wants to end the war with the world believing he triumphed. And what seems to be panic at the opposite being the case, is seeing him lashing out anew at the allies he claims didn't help, new demands for those allies to send warships to open the Strait of Hormuz. Claims that the agreement never included Lebanon, even though there is evidence in writing that it did. It's all getting a bit messy. Let's discuss.

After all the fire and thunder, the deadline came, and it presented mostly as a feeble capitulation to the need for compromise. In spite of all the usual bluster from President Donald Trump and his administration, all the protestations of 'negotiating from strength' and 'the art of the deal', it seems that Iran is predominantly setting the terms of reference for the discussion, and determined to hold onto its dominance over the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations may follow, but these are the factors that suggest Iran has won the war - so you can check to see which of them endure through the talks.

Immediately after celebrating the rescue of a US airman from Iran, Trump launched into a tirade that was extraordinary even for him - where he threatened actions that would count as war crimes against Iran, suggesting they had to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday to avert it. Just another flip-flop then, following his earlier message that he didn't care if the Strait was open or not? Well, yes. But the US normalising of intended war crimes, and the rise of somewhat disturbing 'holy war' rhetoric, is starting to make the operation seem even more unhinged than it did already. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday April 3rd 2026. After Trump's incoherent address to the nation the backlash against his war on Iran is widening, and given voice by a particularly sharp attack by French President Macron. The Pentagon is looking to exploit its existing treaty with Denmark to open three new military bases on Greenland - but that treaty was struck at a time before the US became a rogue superpower. And there has been a sudden rush of purges. President Trump fired Pam Bondi, possibly because she couldn't deliver convictions against Trump's enemies. And Pete Hegseth fires the most senior general - in the middle of a war - and replaced him with a loyalist.

The administration of President Donald Trump was quick to cancel USAID. But quietly since then, it has been reinstating some programmes - with a catch. Increasingly, his 'art of the deal' team are demanding that essential aid for HIV sufferers is tied to preferential access to minerals, and a ten year access to health information for all citizens. The 'deals' are egregiously one-sided, assuming that the other side will have no option. But increasingly now African nations are saying no. President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia is the most recent, following in the wake of Zimbabwe's similar refusal. Let's discuss.