Global Economic Outlook

The relative stability of the service sector - which accounts for 70% of GDP in the advanced economies – should help global growth to stabilise next year after a sharp leg down in 2019. Manufacturing has been hit much harder by the trade war, the related decline in business investment and the broader emerging market slowdown and we do not expect any rebound, even if signs are emerging that the downturn maybe starting to ease. Service sector output is much more closely tied to consumer spending, where tight labour markets and solid household income growth are supporting steady growth.