Iran War: Over or Escalating?

Trump went on Fox and referred to the Iran war in the past tense, saying “it’s over.” But if it’s over, then why are thousands of new US troops arriving in the region? Why are we still talking about what happens in the next round of negotiations? Either he’s telling the truth, and just told Iran he’s done fighting, handing them a huge victory in the negotiations, or he’s planning to blow the hell out of Iran, and is lying as misdirection, something he does a lot.That same pattern showed up in the Administration’s shifting story about Iran itself. The Pentagon says no Iranian-linked ships have been allowed in or out since the blockade began, yet maritime data shows multiple Iranian or Iranian-linked vessels departing the Strait of Hormuz. So which is it?And then there’s Trump’s latest justification for the war: Suddenly Trump is claiming that Iran was two weeks away from a nuclear weapon. Sure, Jan. Mind you, Trump had already claimed months earlier that Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated” and would never come back. So which fantasy are we supposed to believe? That it was destroyed beyond repair, or that it was racing toward a bomb month’s later? The reasons keep changing because six or so weeks into the war, Trump still doesn’t know why we’re there.Trump also shrugged last night at reported Chinese cyberattacks with an “it is what it is” attitude, while also claiming Xi wrote him a beautiful letter promising not to arm Iran, and then turning around and sounding like he’s threatening China militarily anyway. Yeah, no dementia there. He veers from Iran to Greenland, from geopolitics to religious trolling, posting bizarre Jesus imagery while his own scandals hang over him. JD Vance lectures the Pope about theology, which is exactly as ridiculous as it sounds.And Trump just warned that even a trade deal with the UK “can always be changed,” effectively admitting that no one should trust the word of this government. Trump’s mendaciousness isn’t just about one war, one lie, or one outburst. It’s about what happens when the United States becomes known as a country whose commitments are temporary, whose explanations are disposable, and whose leaders treats growing instability as a virtue.A similar pattern is happening on the domestic side: Asked about the economy, Trump boasts about stock indexes, and brushes off rising oil prices, suggesting prices aren’t high at all! Then on tax day, today, Trump’s promised payoff to taxpayers turns out to be a fraction of what Trump promised us. The lies, the confusion, the downward spiral continue. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe