Iran's Final Blow

Here is today’s Iran War Update, exclusively for Substackers. Make sure to join me for tonight’s live show at 6pm ET, and for you paid subs, I’ve got a special hangout for you on Saturday at 11am ET. Thanks, JOHNTrump’s Iran war keeps getting sold to the public like it’s some kind of clean, controlled operation that’s moving “ahead of schedule.” That’s bull. The latest reporting says the Pentagon is looking at a so-called final crushing blow against Iran that could include ground troops, a massive bombing campaign, blocking Iranian oil exports, or even taking Kharg Island and other strategic islands. Okay, then what? If we go after Iran’s oil, they’ll go after everyone else’s oil. Saudi fields, Gulf infrastructure, shipping lanes, all of it. We already know how this works. And if the US tries to seize islands, what exactly is the plan after that? Are we permanently occupying them? Are our troops just sitting there as targets while Iran pounds them? And when we leave, what stops Tehran from going right back to choking the Strait of Hormuz? This is the same problem again and again with Trump’s wars: no serious endgame, just vibes, slogans, and the hope that brute force somehow solves the political problem it usually makes worse.And while that’s happening, Trump can’t even keep his own story straight. He says the war is “way ahead of schedule,” but his own timeline doesn’t show that at all. He says the Iranians are begging for a deal, then in the same breath says they’re blowing our negotiators off, and need to be threatened into seriousness. Pick one. Either they’re desperate to negotiate or they’re not.Meanwhile, the actual real-world consequences are piling up. Gas is now brushing up against four dollars a gallon nationally. Oil is surging. Inflation forecasts are rising. Iran is reportedly moving toward imposing new fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which is basically a war-created toll booth on one of the most important waterways on earth. But Trump, in his usual fashion, says he’s surprised prices didn’t go up even more, because apparently he thinks the market is showing confidence in him. No, what the market is showing is stress. And the people paying for it are ordinary consumers.Then there’s the broader strategic mess. Trump is attacking NATO, again, absurdly claiming the alliance never came to America’s aid, when the one time Article 5 was invoked was after 9/11, on our behalf. And NATO came running to help us. He’s also diverting weapons that European countries bought for Ukraine, and redirecting them to the Middle East. That should tell you two things. First, he’s undercutting Ukraine, again. Second, this Iran operation is not going nearly as smoothly as he wants people to think, or they wouldn’t be scrambling for munitions. Even Republicans are describing the current situation as a predictable clusterf.And politically, the numbers are catching up with him. Even Fox has his approval at 41 percent, with independents and Latinos turning sharply against him. So this isn’t just a military gamble. It’s an economic gamble, a strategic gamble, and increasingly a political one too. And the bill, as usual, is getting handed to everybody else. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe