Is the war over?

Trump’s Iran war is now entering the most dangerous phase: the phase where Trump needs everyone to pretend it’s over.US Secretary of State, and many other things, Marco Rubio now says the combat operations launched back in February are finished. Great. Somebody should tell Iran. Since this so-called ceasefire began, Iran has kept attacking commercial vessels, kept seizing ships, kept attacking US forces, and kept pushing around its neighbors in the Gulf. But Trump wants to declare the war over because Trump wants out. He wants the headline. He wants the victory lap. He wants the Nobel Prize fantasy version of foreign policy where the details don’t matter and everyone just claps for Dear Leader.But Iran can see what’s happening. They can see Trump is desperate. Last week, Trump said he didn’t care how long the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed. Then, a few days later, suddenly he’s panicking and begging for help reopening it. So if you’re Iran, why would you settle now? Why wouldn’t you just drag this out until Trump gives you the best deal possible? Trump’s entire negotiating style is that any deal is a good deal if it lets him claim victory, and move on.And the nuclear justification is now collapsing too. Trump is now claiming Iran was two weeks away from a nuclear weapon when he bombed them last year. Really? Because that’s the kind of thing you’d think he might have mentioned before. Maybe in the big Iran speech. Maybe in the endless interviews. Maybe every ten seconds if it were actually true.Instead, US intelligence said Iran was three-to-six-months away from building a nuke (if they wanted to) before last year’s strikes. After those strikes, Iran was 6-to-12-months away from building a nuke (again, if they so choose). Then, Trump bombed them for the past two months, and what happened? Iran is still 6-to-12-months away from building a nuke. Literally nothing changed. In other words, we blew things up, risked and lost US troops, raised energy prices, raised inflation risks, and spent tens of billions of dollars (at least) -- and apparently didn’t set back Iran’s nuclear program by even a day.And no, that doesn’t mean Iran should ever be allowed to get a nuclear weapon. Absolutely not. Iran is a terrorist state. It cannot be allowed to have nukes. But that’s the point: If you’re going to start a war over a nuclear program, the war should actually do something about the nuclear program. Otherwise, what are we doing?Meanwhile, the corruption parade at home continues. Senate Republicans now want to give Trump $1 billion for “security” around his ballroom. Remember, this was supposed to be privately funded. Initially we were told it would cost $200 million. Then $400 million. Now it’s a billion dollars of taxpayer money — but don’t worry, they say it’s only for security. Except Trump and Republicans already told us the ballroom itself is a security measure. So Trump will probably use the entire billion on doilies and those gold appliqués from Home Depot.In other news, Trump also attacked the Pope again, Mark Zandi is warning that Trump’s tariffs have already damaged the economy, RFK Jr.’s FDA is reportedly blocking vaccine safety studies, Russia is threatening Kyiv because Putin wants a nice clean Victory Day parade, and Democrats appear more motivated to vote in November than Republicans (yeah!).And then, late in the show, Trump announced that “Project Freedom,” the effort to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, is being paused while the blockade stays in place. Which he is somehow presenting as progress. We were escorting some ships. Now we’re escorting none. And Trump wants you to believe that’s a breakthrough.He’ll lie about anything. And frequently does. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe