The Iran Trap

Trump keeps doing the same thing on Iran. He lies late in the day, the markets calm down, oil backs off a little, and then a few hours later we find out it was nonsense. That happened again with his ridiculous claim that Iran had given him some huge “gift” and that negotiations were going great. The “gift” turned out to be something the news already knew about: Iran had let a few tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That was not some major diplomatic breakthrough. It was not proof that Trump had things under control. It was spin. More accurately, it was market manipulation by messaging.And the deeper problem is that even the people Trump may be talking to in Iran may not actually be in charge. Axios reports the Iranian government is in chaos and struggling to communicate internally. That matters. Because if the regime itself is fragmented, then all of Trump’s bragging about progress becomes even more ridiculous. Progress with whom, exactly? Which faction? Which person? And do they actually have authority?Then you’ve got GOP Rep. Nancy Mace walking out of a classified Iran briefing today and saying she’s now even more opposed to US troops on the ground after what she heard. That is not the reaction of somebody who just got reassuring news. Maybe the most generous reading is that she wasn’t briefed on a ground invasion specifically, but on how badly things are going. The less generous reading is worse: that boots on the ground are being discussed because reopening the Strait of Hormuz may otherwise be impossible. Either way, it’s not good.The Washington Post then reports Trump has offered Iran a 15-point proposal that looks so extreme Iran is unlikely to accept it. That’s the part that worries me. Because Trump may be making impossible demands so he can pretend Iran “left him no choice.” If you pair that with reports of more ground-invasion US forces moving into place, it starts to look less like peace talks and more like stage-setting for escalation.And even if the US did something like seize Kharg Island or a strip of Iran’s coast to reopen the strait, then what? Robert Kelly laid this out well. How long do we stay? What happens when Iran comes back the minute we leave? What happens when Iranian forces start hammering those positions? Then we move farther inland. Then farther again. That’s mission creep. That’s how limited operations turn into open-ended wars.The White House isn’t helping. Karoline Leavitt went out there and basically said two opposite things in the same briefing. On the one hand, Iran supposedly recognizes it’s being crushed and is looking for an exit ramp. On the other hand, if Iran fails to understand that it has been defeated, Trump will hit it harder than ever. Which is it? Does Iran realizes it’s defeated or not? Those two claims don’t fit together. But that’s what happens when your briefing is built around spin and lies instead of the truth.And now NBC reports Trump is getting these curated little war montages from military officials, basically reels of American strikes and “stuff blowing up,” with comparatively little detail about Iranian actions. We even learned he reportedly wasn’t briefed promptly when US planes were hit at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. That’s insane. You cannot run a war like a toddler’s picture book. Keep it happy! Lives are at stake. And tens of billions of dollars are at stake. But once again, Trump is being managed emotionally, not informed seriously.The fallout is already here at home. Mortgage rates are back above 7 percent. Reuters has Trump getting crushed on cost of living, foreign policy, immigration, and the economy. Democrats are outperforming again in elections. And if this drags on, Larry Fink is warning about the possibility of much higher oil prices and a steep recession. So no, this is not “going great.” This looks like confusion, manipulation, and drift toward something far bigger than Trump is admitting. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe