Trump Bombs Iran

Trump’s Iran war is now in the “everything is fine, we’re just bombing each other” stage.That was basically the headline tonight. Right before the show started, we got breaking news that the US had struck Iran again. And the reason was just as insane as everything else in this war: Iran had reportedly attacked US Navy ships again in the Strait of Hormuz, after doing the same thing days earlier. Trump didn’t respond the first time, which was basically an engraved invitation for Iran to try it again. So they did. And now Trump is retaliating days late, in the middle of supposed peace negotiations, while still insisting the ceasefire is somehow intact.That’s not a ceasefire.And the timing matters. Because the actual news before the bombs started flying again was that Iran was reportedly considering a one-page proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stop the fighting for 30 days while the two sides negotiate a bigger settlement. The basic framework is simple: lift the US blockade on Iranian ships and ports, reopen the strait to commercial traffic, stop the fighting, and then spend the next month fighting over the hard stuff. And the hard stuff is still the nuclear program. The US wants Iran to hand over its highly enriched uranium and suspend enrichment for 20 years. Iran is offering less: dilute some uranium, send some to a third country, possibly Russia, and suspend enrichment for maybe 10 to 15 years.That’s at least a negotiation. It’s not peace. It’s not surrender. But it’s a path away from the cliff.The problem is Trump keeps pretending he’s already won. And US intelligence is saying the opposite. According to a CIA analysis, Iran can survive the US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more serious economic pain. US intel also reportedly says Iran still has about 75% of its mobile launchers and about 70% of its prewar missile stockpiles. Trump claimed this week that their missiles were “mostly decimated.” That, we now know, is a lie.And that’s the problem with having a pathological liar run a war. Americans are supposed to judge whether this war is working based on what the president tells us. Congress is supposed to decide whether to support it based on what the president tells us. But if the president is lying about Iran’s economy, lying about Iran’s missile capacity, lying about the ceasefire, and lying about how much leverage we have, then nobody can make an informed judgment about anything.Meanwhile, Americans to continue to pay the price. Gas is up. Oil is volatile. Ground beef is at $6.70/pound nationally. And Republicans are suddenly quoting Biden’s energy secretary saying presidents don’t control gas prices. That’s adorable. Under Biden, every penny at the pump was supposedly his fault. Under Trump, after Trump himself brags that he shut down the Strait of Hormuz, suddenly gas prices are just vibes. Except Trump admitted this week that oil could have gone to $200, and he said it would have been worth it. Worth it to whom? Because $200 oil isn’t a strategy. It’s $10 gas and a recession, and a lot of empty American wallets.And then there’s the corruption circus, because there’s always a corruption circus with this guy. Trump’s ballroom is now looking less like a $400 million vanity project and more like a $1.4 billion taxpayer-funded monument to one man’s ego. The Qatari 747 “gift” keeps getting worse, because experts say the plane can’t possibly be properly secured in a few months, but Trump wants to use it anyway -- meaning the president may conduct sensitive national-security business on an insecure plane. And then, apparently, the plane eventually gets parked at the Trump library, where Trump can use it after leaving office. So we pay billions to secure it, and he gets the toy. Nice scam if you can get it.We also talked about the DOJ investigating suspicious oil trades made right before Trump’s Iran announcements -- trades that reportedly made more than $2.6 billion. That investigation is either going to be fascinating, or dead after they find out who was making the bets, and whether his last name starts with a T. Meanwhile, FBI Director Kash Patel is reportedly in panic mode, polygraphing staffers to find leakers while also claiming the stories they’re leaking are false. Which is a little awkward, because if the stories are false, what exactly are people leaking?Then came acting Attorney General Todd Blanche floating the idea of Border Patrol or ICE agents at polling places. Armed agents. Probably masked. At voting locations. In America. And he asks, “What’s the risk?” The risk is voter intimidation. The risk is scaring Latinos and Black voters away from the polls. The risk is turning US elections into a cosplay version of Russia, where Putin “only” wins by 87% or so.And, because these guys are simply tone deaf about the economic pain people are facing, Trump now has a 20-foot gold statue of himself at his Doral club in Miami. Real gold, apparently. Inflation is raging, people are paying more for food, health premiums are soaring (because Trump refused to renew the ACA subsidies), and Trump is tweeting gold statues of himself. Nero fiddled. Trump gilds.We closed with Kamala Harris reportedly thinking about another run, which I’m not sold on; Joe Rogan trying to soften Nick Fuentes’ Holocaust denial as merely “debating the numbers,” which is simply vile; Trump’s weird bruised hands and a mystery dentist visit; and Marco Rubio going to see Pope Leo XIV and giving him a crystal football. Yes, the Pope gave Rubio a peace plant. Rubio gave the Pope a State Department paperweight shaped like something you’d buy in an airport gift shop. The pope’s reaction was literally: “Wow. Okay.”Yeah, Pope, we know. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit aravosis.substack.com/subscribe