Anticipating the Unintended
by Pranay Kotasthane
Frameworks, mental models, and fresh perspectives on Indian public policy and politics. This feed is an audio narration by Ad Auris based on the 'Anticipating the Unintended' newsletter, a free weekly publication with 8000+ subscribers. publicpolicy.substack.com
Episodes
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#240 Peering Into the Future
Prediction Time —RSJ In a year when countries as diverse as India, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Taiwan, Pakistan and Palau go for their elections, it is tempting to go for an overarching theme for the year while looking ahead. Unfortunately, like these aforementioned elections…
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#239 Of Screws and Racquets
Happy New Year — RSJ Happy 2024, dear readers! We hope 2023 was good for all of you. If it wasn’t, we are glad that it’s behind you. We didn’t have too bad a 2023 ourselves. This newsletter went along swimmingly (or so we think) and we had our book ‘Missing in Action: Why You Should Care About...
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#238 Everything's Connected
India Policy Watch #1: Like a Kid in a Candy Store Insights on current policy issues in India — Pranay Kotasthane In the previous edition, I asked you to name your favourite sports policy to date. I don’t have a great answer myself. Nevertheless, my candidate would be liberalising FDI in retail....
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#237 Looking Under the Hood
Course Advertisement: Admission to Takshashila’s Graduate Certificate in Public Policy (GCPP) programme is now open. Start your 2024 with a course that will equip you with the tools to understand the world of public policy. Check all details here. India Policy Watch: In Search Of Growth Current...
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#235 Right Diagnosis, Wrong Prescription
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#221 The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
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#220 (China+1) Or (1-China)?
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#219 Of Sins, Bets, and Bluffs
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#218 TechTalk
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#217 False Hopes and Weak Promises
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#216 Thick and Fast
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#215 Of Openings and Possibilities
Read the edition here. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com
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#214 The Stakes are High
Financial Regulation of Private Firms + Emigration of Indian Talent This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com
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#213 The Mind Plays Tricks
India Watch #1: Of Protests and Perfect Tricks Insights on issues relevant to India — RSJ For nearly a month now, some of India's top wrestlers, who between them have earned over 25 medals in various global competitions, have been protesting against the conduct of the Wrestling Federation of…
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#212 Myths & Misconceptions
Being Pragmatic about ESG Norms, Lessons for India's Semiconductor Strategy, and Challenging Common Wisdom about India's Constitution-making. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com
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#211 Of Motives and Presumptions
India Policy Watch #1: Silly Season Is Upon Us Insights on issues relevant to India — RSJ Late on Friday this week, the RBI issued a circular withdrawing the circulation of ₹2000 denomination banknotes. The RBI clarified that these notes would continue to serve as legal tender, so this isn’t...
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#210 Metastability
Global Policy Watch: Much Ado About De-dollarisation Reflections on global policy issues — RSJ This week, Donald Trump urged Republican lawmakers to let the U.S. default on its debt if the Democrats don’t agree on massive budget cuts. Trump likened the people running the U.S. treasury to ‘drunken...
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#209 Of New Beginnings and Old Grouses
Global Policy Watch: Chronicle Of A Crisis Foretold Reflections on global policy issues — RSJ A major state election (Karnataka) is coming up this week. But there’s hardly anything worth analysing. The Congress seemed to have a slight edge in the early opinion polls, but that’s wearing thin. The...
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#208 Go Shape the Molten Metal Now*
India Policy Watch #1: How Not to Let the Opportunity Slip Away Insights on issues relevant to India — RSJ A strange thing happens when you are away on a break. One week you are sitting and wondering how many different things you can write about because of the flurry of events around you. US…
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#207 The Rise and Rise of Conglomerates
India Policy Watch #1: Don’t Concentrate Insights on issues relevant to India — RSJ In one of the recent editions on the Hindenburg short-selling saga, I had written about how easily the Adani group had spread itself into a diverse range of sectors. The group was highly leveraged because it was…
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#206 Those Immutable Laws
India Policy Watch: Those Mind Games Insights on issues relevant to India — RSJ Regular readers might have noticed the absence of posts analysing the political economy and politics in general in our editions of late. This isn’t intentional. There’s not much to write about. There is a strange…
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#205 Doodh Ka Doodh, Paani Ka Paani
Global Policy Watch: Bailout Pe Bailout Pe Bailout Insights on global policy issues relevant to India — RSJ Where do I start this week? Maybe with a spot of self-promotion. Pranay and I were guests on the popular Hindi podcast Puliyaabazi. I have been a long-time fan, so it was nice to be a guest...
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#204 The Distant Roll Of Thunder
Global Policy Watch: Accident Ho Gaya Insights on global policy issues relevant to India — RSJ I must admit there are times when I have made a big deal about writing this newsletter. Not about the content, mind you. I’m not that vain yet. But the regularity of it all. Getting about 4000 words out...
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#203 Economic Growth and Voter Preferences
India Policy Watch #1: Why We Don’t Care About Growth Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ Earlier this week, Pranay and I recorded an episode with Shruti Rajagopalan for her podcast Ideas of India. I have been following Shruti’s columns and the podcast for a while now, and I will...
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#201 Blocking out the Sun
India Policy Watch #1: What Do Successive Defence Budgets Reveal? Insights on burning policy issues in India — Pranay Kotasthane (An edited version of this article was published in Hindustan Times on 13th Feb) Another defence budget zoomed past us on Feb 1. Since then, analyses have focused on…
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#202 The Debt of the Future
India Policy Watch: Passing the Burden Insights on burning policy issues in India — Pranay Kotasthane As Wilson’s Matrix tells us, concentrated benefits (costs) trump diffused costs (benefits) on most occasions. Organising people around diffuse interests is difficult. As a political articulation…
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#200 The Stories We Choose to Believe
We turn 200 editions old today. It has been fun. Thank you for giving us your time. You can do without another self-congratulatory mail in your inbox. So, let’s get moving on with a nod to this classic line of Majrooh. मैं अकेला ही चला था जानिब-ए-मंज़िल मगर लोग साथ आते गए और कारवाँ बनता गया I had...
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#199 A New Deal?
India Policy Watch: Our Week With Adani Insights on current policy issues in India - RSJ That was an eventful week in India. In the last edition I had written these lines on the ongoing Adani saga that have now come back to bite me: “The FPO might struggle a bit to sail through. But that amount…
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#198 How To Build In India?
We have a book out. Already bought it? Good. It makes for a great gift too. Ship it to your friends. Here’s the helpful link. Now curl up for a long Sunday edition. India Policy Watch #1: The State and Capital This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or…
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#197 Everything for Everyone All At Once
India Policy Watch #1: Fertility 2.0 Insights on current policy issues in India — RSJ First, the good news. “India may have already surpassed China as the world’s most-populous nation in a milestone that adds urgency for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to create more jobs and ensure the country...
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#196 Roving Bandits
Predictions: 2023 —RSJ As promised last week, let’s get going with some predictions for 2023. Pranay likes to keep them very specific (for a good reason), while I get away with broad bets. Global Economy The problem with predicting anything on how things will unfold globally is the random big…
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#195 Missing In Action Is Here
Wishing You a Great 2023 Others might begin the new year with resolutions, but we prefer excuses. Last year, we wrote only 42 editions. There was much to do in the remaining ten weeks. There was the Football World Cup, a few time-offs, a couple of vacations, and of course, a lapdog ate our…
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#194 The e₹ is in Town
Programming Note: A lighter edition this weekend because life happened of late-night football, missed flights, and several other things. Also, we will be away for a short year-end break. Normal service will resume on Jan 8, 2023. Happy holiday season, everyone! India Policy Watch: Digital Rupee...
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#193 No Country For Young Men?
India Policy Watch #1: Winning The Long Game Insights on current policy issues in India — RSJ Many moons ago I sat down for lunch with someone who is often referred to in the media as a ‘doyen of the industry’. Among other things, I asked him the single most important advice he would give to…
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#192 From Local to Global
India Policy Watch: State Capacity, the Smart Parking Edition Insights on domestic policy issues — Pranay Kotasthane Public policy is all around us; observing the same public space over time can reveal much about public policy, implementation, and state capacity. So, I’ll try something different...
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#191 #TwitterMustDie?
Global Policy Watch: Tu Cheez Badi Hai Musk, Musk (umm, sorry) Insights on global policy issues — RSJ One of the great problems of policy, or even philosophy, is who should own things that are or that behave like public utilities. For instance, who should own news broadcasting services? Suppose…
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#190 Hubris Leads to Downfall
Global Policy Watch #1: FinTech Manoeuvres Insights on global issues relevant to India — RSJ One of our favourite topics to talk about around here is regulations. We aren’t dogmatic about things. But the one principle that comes close to being a dogma for us is our belief in spontaneous order.…
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#189 Strange Are The Ways Of Democracy
India Policy Watch #1: Ganesh Ji & Lakshmi Ji To The Rescue Insights on domestic policy issues — RSJ Sometime last week, this newsletter marked three years of its existence. A blink of an eye in the larger scheme of things. Yet, it feels nice to have reached this milestone. Consistency might be…
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#187 Seek Not To Alter Me
Programming Note: We will be on a short ‘writing’ break. Normal service will resume from Oct 29. Global Policy Watch: When Traditional Institutions Work Insights on topical policy issues in India — RSJ King Charles III was coronated last week. I saw the pictures of the event, and if you did not...
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#186 Of Magnitude and Littleness*
India Policy Watch #1: The Anatomy of Decentralisation Insights on topical policy issues in India — Pranay Kotasthane The human-made floods in some parts of Bengaluru generated much furore. Writing about it in our previous edition, RSJ remarked: The way the political economy is structured right...
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#185 Nature Will Take Its Course
Global Policy Watch: Europe’s War Global policy issues and their implication for India — RSJ There is an energy crisis in Europe. Russia announced this week that it won’t resume supplying gas to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline until the west lifts the sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine....
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#184 The Persistence Of Failure
India Policy Watch: Why Do We Not Get It Right, Ever? Insights on topical policy issues in India — RSJ Policies fail more often than they succeed. This is a universal truth. We love to pontificate in this newsletter on why policies fail. It is the easiest of things to do. Crafting a policy that...
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#183 Free Lunches Forever
PolicyWTF: Revdi Fertiliser Culture This section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen? - Pranay Kotasthane In the past, we have discussed many government plans of the “One Nation, One X” kind. Still, I must confess. Of all things that can...
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#182 Aisa Mauka Phir Kahan Milega?
Global Policy Watch #1: The Many Transitions In China Global issues and their implications for India — RSJ In a few editions in the past, we have alluded to structural challenges in the Chinese economy and the window of opportunity that it presents India. I thought it would be useful to take a…
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#181 We Shall Overcome
Happy Independence Day! - Pranay Kotasthane and RSJ This newsletter can often seem pessimistic about India. That isn’t true, though. Every year, on Independence Day, we remind ourselves and our readers why we write this newsletter. This is how we ended the Independence Day edition of 2020: “What…
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#180 This World Is Given To Lying
India Policy Watch #1: Futility Of Fighting Lies Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ I have been following the case of Mohammed Zubair, the co-founder of the fact-checking site Alt News with interest. He was granted interim bail by the Supreme Court a couple of weeks back. You can…
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#179 The Flesh is Willing but the Mind is Weak
Global Policy Watch: Energy Is Flagging Insights on burning policy issues from an Indian lens — RSJ Who do you think has a better long-term view of the world? An administration struggling to control inflation and rising oil prices, one that’s facing midterm elections with the lowest approval...
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#178 How Do I Raid Thee? Let Me Count The Ways
India Policy Watch #1: To Catch A Falling Rupee Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ The Indian rupee this week declined to an all-time low as it went beyond 80 per dollar. For reasons that aren’t always clear to me, this kind of thing makes a lot of news in India. I mean, it was 79.9...
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#177 We See What We Want to See
Global Policy Watch #1: How the Sri Lankan Economy Unraveled Insights on policy issues making news around the world — RSJ What people do when they storm palaces is broadly instructive about what comes next. In 1792, the French insurgents determined to end whatever remained of the ancien regime...
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#176 Of East Asian Transformations
Global Policy Watch #1: The Road Not Taken Insights on policy issues making news around the world — Pranay Kotasthane East Asian economic success is one of India’s favourite public policy discussion themes. Regardless of the facts, we have strengthened our own beliefs based on that…
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About this show
Frameworks, mental models, and fresh perspectives on Indian public policy and politics. This feed is an audio narration by Ad Auris based on the 'Anticipating the Unintended' newsletter, a free weekly publication with 8000+ subscribers.
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