All Episodes
Capital Flows and Asset Markets — 413 episodes
IS SOFTBANK THE SOFT FLANK OF AI?
"IT'S ONLY WAFER THIN" - "ALRIGHT THEN, BUY ME SOME WAFER STOCKS"
GOLD FOR BITCOIN?
MAYBE FOOD INFLATION IS THE KEY
APRIL UPDATE
UPDATE - BOOK AND SLICE
THE POLITICS OF TLT
THOUGHTS ON THE AI BOOM
RED PILL / BLUE PILL TIME!
DO WE NEED HEDGE FUNDS?
IS TLT STILL A SHORT?
STRATEGY UPDATE
THE MARKETS AND AI
THE GAYS OF HORMUZ
EASTER ESSAY - THE DEINSTITUTIONALISATION OF SOCIETY
STRATEGY UPDATE
IS GOLD GOING TO GET THE BITCOIN TREATMENT?
MARCH NEWSLETTER
CENTRAL BANKS ONLY FEAR FOOD INFLATION
THE IRAN WAR - WHAT'S THE ENDGAME?
FED RATES TO 7%?
MORE THOUGHTS ON GLD/TLT AND WAR IN IRAN
COST OF CAPITAL TRADE OR ENERGY SECURITY TRADE?
GOLD IS A DISTRACTION
GLD/TLT IS ACTUALLY DOING WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED TO DO
WAR! GLD/TLT WHAT IS GOOD FOR? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING
PUTTING ON A FEW MORE TRADES
I HATE THE "DUMB TRUMP" TRADE
ANSWERING THE CURRENCY RIDDLE
STRATEGY UPDATE
TIDYING UP THE SHORT BOOK
IS IT REALLY DIFFERENT THIS TIME?
THE MARKET ALWAYS KNOWS - IRAN VERSION
WHAT THE HELL IS HAPPENING IN ASIA?
EXCITING TIMES!
FEBRUARY REVIEW
THE ANATOMY OF A FAILED SHORT
SHOULD I CUT THE SHORT BOOK?
SO CHINA IS STILL BUYING TREASURIES?
THE CHANGING NATURE OF MARKETS AND SHORT SELLING
CAN AI BE A BUBBLE LIKE THE DOT COM BUST?
CURRENCIES AND BEAR P@RN
PRIVATE EQUITY AND SOFTWARE
DO I LIKE EMERGING MARKETS HERE?
IS THE BOND BEAR MARKET OVER? PART II
IS THE BOND BEAR MARKET OVER?
BRUMBY, EUROHEDGE AND ME
WHAT TO DO ABOUT JAPAN?
PRO-LABOUR? OR CAPITAL SCARCITY? DOES IT MATTER?
GOLD AND BITCOIN
A LONG IDEA TO PAIR WITH A SHORT IDEA
WHAT THE HELL IS HAPPENING WITH KOREAN VOLATILITY?
JANUARY REVIEW
MY PRECIOUS!
TRADING THE REACTION - PUTTING ON A SHORT
IS PASSIVE REALLY THE BAD GUY?
DEATH OF THE BOND MARKET - A FOUR PART MOVEMENT
JUNKIER IN THE TRUNKIER
IS IT TIME?
VALUING AI
PUTTING ON THE TRADER HAT
ME, MYSELF, AI
WHAT DRIVES CURRENCIES?
WHAT IS TRUMP'S PLAN?
WHAT I LEARNT FROM TAKING THE KIDS TO JAPAN
DECEMBER REVIEW
RANDOM THOUGHTS : CAN AMERICA BECOME POOR?
RANDOM THOUGHTS: IS TECHNOLOGY DRIVING THE "DEINSTITUTIONALISATION" OF SOCIETY?
IF PRO-LABOUR THEORY IS CORRECT - NOW IS THE TIME TO SHORT
IS IT TIME TO SHORT AI?
END OF YEAR REVIEW
TIME TO BUY BITCOIN?
CHRISTMAS HAIKU WINNER
CHRISTMAS HAIKU COMPETITION UPDATE
COULD A RUSSIA/UKRAINE DEAL BE GOOD FOR ENERGY MARKET?
ARBITRAGING YIELD RISK WITH EQUITIES
ARBITRAGING ACROSS ASSET CLASSES
CHRISTMAS HAIKU CONTEST II
NOVEMBER REVIEW
BRUMBY CAPITAL - POSITION UPDATE
FOOD INFLATION AND THE MINIMUM WAGE
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
THE PRO-LABOUR SHIFT IS TAKING HOLD
MOVING NET SHORT
CAN I TOKENISE BRUMBY CAPITAL?
QUARTERLY RESULTS REVIEW
IS PRO-LABOUR ACUTALLY PRO-INVESTMENT?
WHAT TO DO ABOUT MAG 7?
JUNK IN THE TRUNK
WHO ARE THE IDIOTS BUYING "STRATEGY" PREFFEREDS?
FROM CAPITAN KIRK TO DARTH VADER
OCTOBER REVIEW
THOUGHTS FROM SAN FRANCISCO
QUICK UPDATE
IS BAD NEWS GOOD NEWS?
IT IS THE 70S.... BUT SEMICONDUCTORS ARE THE NEW OIL
IS GOLD DONE?
WHATS WRONG WITH BITCOIN?
IS THE CRAPPY BANK TRADE DONE?
AI, VIX AND AUTOCALLABLES
NIIP AND GOLD
TIME TO TRANSITION FROM GLD/TLT TO GLD/SPX?
ARE WE PEAK WAR?
LONG YEN - THE NEW WIDOWMAKER GOES TO WORK
TIME TO GET BEARISH - PART 2
GOLD MINERS AND GLD/TLT
IS THE GOLD TRADE DONE?
BRUMBY CAPITAL UPDATE
TIME TO GET BEARISH - FOLLOW UP POST
TIME TO GET BEARISH?
THOUGHTS ON FERTILITY
CLEARINGHOUSE CLARIFICATION - AND SHORT IDEA
ORACLE, GOLD AND THE S&P 500
CLEARINGHOUSES AND THE BASIS TRADE
IS GLD/TLT STILL A GOOD TRADE?
CLEARINGHOUSE THEORY AND PRACTICE HAS BEEN CORRECT - BUT IS POLITICS NOW FALLING IN TO PLACE TOO?
WHAT IF THE TRUMP ATTACK ON THE FED IS HAWKISH?
SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES - UPDATE 2
WHAT TO DO ABOUT YEN?
BRUMBY CAPITAL UPDATE
I FIND MYSELF UNCONTROLLABLE BULLISH ON JAPAN
SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES - UPDATE
SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES
IS THE ASIAN SAVINGS GLUT OVER?
MISHIMA!
HOW FAR CAN EQUITIES OUTPERFORM BONDS?
EARNINGS AND THEMES UPDATE
ARE TREASURIES A BUY?
THINKING ABOUT AI - AND A LONG IDEA
WHY NIIP FAILED WITH THE US
IS AI A BUBBLE - PART 2
IS AI A BUBBLE?
BRUMBY UPDATE
DEFENCE UPDATE
WHAT TO DO ABOUT PRIVATE EQUITY?
STRATEGY UPDATE
I LOVE AI - BUT I CAN'T MAKE THE NUMBERS WORK
DOES PRO-LABOUR POLITICS MEAN A NEVER ENDING BULL MARKET?
CAN THE TARIFFS BALANCE THE BUDGET?
THE AI SQUEEZE
CHATGPT AND ME
INFLECTION TIME?
STUCK IN NO MAN'S LAND
MMT AND ME
TREMOR IN THE REPO MARKETS?
BRUMBY UPDATE
MOMENTUM INVESTING WON'T DIE - PART 2
MOMENTUM INVESTING JUST WON'T DIE
GOLD/NASDAQ
WHY IRAN DOES NOT MATTER
CHILD'S PLAY
COULD THE US HAVE A NATURAL GAS SHORTAGE?
VALUING DEFENCE STOCKS
IS GLD/TLT DONE?
IS IT TIME TO GET BEARISH?
IS THE JAPANESE "RICE SHOCK" A MOMENT OF CHANGE? IF SO HOW DO WE PLAY IT?
BRUMBY UPDATE - AND ANOTHER DEFENCE STOCK
MORE THOUGHTS ON DEFENCE
IS TRUMP PRO-LABOUR?
STILL TIME TO CHASE DEFENCE STOCKS?
IS EVERYTHING A BASIS TRADE?
WHAT I AM SEEING AND WHAT I AM DOING
THE US GOT THE DOWNGRADE SO WHY ARE JGBs SO WEAK?
THOUGHTS ON THE US DOWNGRADE
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
THINKING ABOUT SEMIS
TIME TO SHORT AGAIN?
WAS IT ALL A FEVER DREAM?
IS THIS THE BOTTOM FOR ENERGY PRICES?
WHAT DO I NEED?
FORGET MACRO - ITS ALL POLITICS
BRUMBY CAPITAL AND MARKET UPDATE
ON FERTILITY, CLEARINGHOUSES AND VOLATILTY
REFLECTING ON MY STRATEGY
APRIL AND FINAL PORTFOLIO REVIEW
THE ONLY TRULY SAFE HAVEN ASSET IS AN ASSET THAT NO ONE OWNS
WALL OF WORRY OR SLOPE OF HOPE?
HAS GLD/TLT GONE TOO FAR TOO FAST?
WHAT TO DO WITH THE US DOLLAR?
AM I THE RONNIE O'SULLIVAN OF MACRO?
RANDOM THOUGHTS AND OBSERVATIONS
BRUMBY CAPITAL UPDATE
Market Update With Russell Clark
WHAT WE LEARNED IN THE LAST TWO DAYS
THE MARKET SAYS REFLATION
TIME TO CHANGE STRATEGY?
DEFLATION? REALLY?
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
MARCH PORTFOLIO REVIEW
THE ART OF THE SHORT
ARE WE HEADING TO AN ERA OF CAPITAL SCARCITY?
THE MAGIC OF SHORT SELLING
FOOD INFLATION REVISITED
COMING TO AMERICA!
WELCOME TO THE NEW WORLD
WHEN DO YOU COVER SHORTS?
IT'S NOT A RECESSION - ITS A REBALANCING
ADDING TO THE SHORT BOOK
THINKING ABOUT RESTAURANT CHAINS
WHAT HAPPENING IN AUTOCALLABLE WORLD?
FEBRUARY PORTFOLIO REVIEW
THE RUSSELL CLARK "TRADING RULES"
CAN THE US DOGE A DEBT CRISIS?
TIME TO BE BOLD - ADDING ANOTHER SHORT
BRUMBY CAPITAL!
HORSEHEAD CAPITAL - GOOD NAME OR BAD NAME?
TRUMP AND RUSSIA
FROM CAPITAL ABUNDANCE TO CAPITAL SCARCITY
HOW I SEE IT PLAYING OUT
CALCULATED RISK
WHAT'S THE DEAL WITH CHINESE TECH?
HOW I READ THE US TECH SECTOR
DOES BUFFETT'S SALE OF APPLE STOCK MEAN ANYTHING?
MORE THOUGHTS ON AI, DEEPSEEK AND NVIDIA
DEEPSEEK SETS ME FREE
JANUARY PORTFOLIO REVIEW
IS NVIDIA A SHORT?
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
LESSONS FROM THE 1970'S NIFTY FIFTY
IS THE USA THAT SPECIAL?
ME, MYSELF AND HEDGE FUNDS
REGIME CHANGE IN THE ENERGY MARKETS?
WHAT'S THE PLAN STAN?
WHAT TO SHORT?
IS IT TIME TO SHORT?
I THINK I MIGHT HAVE BEEN WRONG ON CHINA
DECEMBER PORTFOLIO REVIEW
"GREED IS EVERYTHING" - THE MONETISATION STAGE OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY
LESSONS FROM 2024 - AND FOCUS AREAS FOR 2025
CHRISTMAS HAIKU WINNER
ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF THE DIGITAL WORLD
WHY ARE BOND YIELDS DIVERGING SO MUCH
CHRISTMAS COMPETITION - FINANCE HAIKU
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MACRO
THE TRUMP TRADE
IS "LONG YEN" THE "NEW SHORT JGB" TRADE?
GREED IS EVERYTHING ERA
ANALYSING THE DIGITAL WORLD LIKE THE REAL WORLD
THE DIGITAL WORLD IS EATING THE PHYSICAL WORLD
IF BUFFETT IS SELLING, SHOULD I BE BULLISH?
AMERICA CREATED THE TRADE IMBALANCE
MICHAEL SAYLOR - CAN HE CORNER THE BITCOIN MARKET?
IS TRUMP PRO-LABOUR?
TRADE, TECHNOLOGY AND EMPIRE
THE NEXT STAGE IN WESTERN CIVILISATION - PART 2
THE NEXT STAGE IN WESTERN CIVILISATION DAWNS
I THINK THE PRO-LABOUR CANDIDATE WINS - BUT IS THAT HARRIS OR TRUMP?
OCTOBER PORTFOLIO REVIEW
WHY AM I SUCH A LOSER?!?
HOW BOEING REMINDS ME OF THE US
THE FUTURE IS CLEAR
IS THE ECONOMIST STILL A CONTRA?
IS PEAK SEMI THE REAL DEAL?
THE PROBLEM WITH PLATFORM STOCKS
CHINA AND GLD/TLT
ARE YOU BULLISH CHINA? WANT SOME IDEAS?
SEPTEMBER PORTFOLIO REVIEW
SHOULD WE CHASE THE CHINA TRADE?
BITCOIN AND GLD/TLT
TECHNOLOGY AND EMPIRE
WHY ARE COMMODITY MARKETS SO SCREWY??
BANKS IN A PRO-LABOUR WORLD
TREASURIES SAY RECESSION - JGBS AND HIGH YIELD SAY BOOM TIMES
CONTEMPLATING MY EXISTENTIAL ANGST
AUGUST - PORTFOLIO REVIEW
THE INFLATION TRADE AND JAPANESE BANKS
EXISTENTIAL ANGST HAS RETURNED
IS JAPAN GOING TO HAVE AN INVESTMENT BOOM?
WHAT DO BOND YIELDS REALLY TELL YOU?
SHOULD WE FEAR THE CARRY TRADE?
RED PILL - BLUE PILL TIME
WHERE DID THAT NFP NUMBER COME FROM?
IS IT TIME? PART II
JULY PORTFOLIO REVIEW
IS IT TIME?
UK IS A PRO-LABOUR TEST
AMERICAN CAPITALISM IS A SUPER SAIYANJIN
NEO-CON VS PRO-LABOUR
TRUMP IS NOT POPULIST - HE IS NEO-CON
WAR IS ALSO PRO-LABOUR
TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL
WHAT WOULD SOROS DO?
WHAT WOULD FDR DO?
WHY IS THE FRENCH ELECTION SO BAD FOR BONDS?
MODERN MARXIST THEORY
WHAT CHINESE AI TELLS US ABOUT THE SEMI MARKET
WHAT'S WRONG WITH PASSIVE?
WHY ARE YOU BUYING BONDS?
SHOW ME THE MONEY!
WHY DOES GLD/TLT STILL WORK?
YOU CAN CHOOSE WHO YOU LOVE BUT NOT HOW YOU ARE LOVED
PUSHING THE BIG RED BUTTON
THINKING ABOUT BILL ACKMAN
IS THE S&P THE RISK FREE ASSET?
TAXATION IS NOT THEFT, IT IS INSTITUTIONALISED EXTORTION
IN PRAISE OF TREKKING ALONE
WHEN IS THE BEAR MARKET?
IS JAPAN REALLY THAT CHEAP?
ON EMPIRE AND STAR TREK
WHAT IS MY SUBCONSCIOUS TRYING TO ME?
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
WHAT IF PRIVATE EQUITISATION IS NOT CYCLICAL?
JAPAN AND TREASURIES
WHAT MAKES A COUNTRY MORE SOCIALIST?
APRIL NEWSLETTER AND REVIEW
WHAT DOES ANZAC DAY MEAN?
YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH - PART II
PRECIOUS METALS ADDENDUM
PRECIOUS METALS - WHY IS ONLY GOLD ACTING PRECIOUS
WHAT GOLD, REAL RATES AND GOLD MINERS ARE ALL TELLING YOU
RUSSELL CLARK - MUSEUM PIECE
THE SLEEPER HAS AWAKENED
MARCH NEWSLETTER AND REVIEW
IS LONG YEN THE NEW WIDOWMAKER?
AMERICAN GODS
YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH
WHAT GATTACA TAUGHT ME ABOUT LIFE
ON POLITICS AND MARKETS
ONLY THE US CAN DESTROY THE US DOLLAR
IS CHINA TURNING COMMUNIST, OR IS JUST TRYING TO ESCAPE US INFLUENCE?
THE BOJ AS A KEIRESTU
FEBRUARY NEWSLETTER AND REVIEW
WHAT IS THE TRUE MEANING OF CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE?
BEAR P0£N
COMMODITIES, BUFFETT AND THE BOJ
WHAT IF IT ISN’T A BUBBLE?
THOUGHTS ON THE BOJ - AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR MY INVESTMENT STRATEGY
IS JAPAN THAT IMPORTANT? PART TWO
IS JAPAN REALLY THAT IMPORTANT?
CAN WE ONLY GET A BEAR MARKET WHEN THE BOJ ENDS QE?
WHY ARE STRONG STOCK MARKETS POLITICALLY UNPOPULAR?
IF SEMIS ARE THE NEW OIL, HOW HIGH COULD THEY GO?
WHAT'S GOING ON WITH FINANCE UNEMPLOYMENT?
JANUARY NEWSLETTER AND REVIEW
UH OH... HAVE I BECOME THE NEW DENNIS GARTMAN/FRED HICKEY?
DO WE NEED A "PRO-LABOUR/COLD WAR" MODEL?
SHOULD OLD FUND MANAGERS COME OUT OF REITREMENT?
AUSTRALIA AND THE PRO-LABOUR TRADE
A CONSPIRACY THEORY FOR JAPAN’S LOST DECADES
THE BUSINESS STRATEGY IS THE INVESTMENT STRATEGY
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
WHO IS THE PATSY?
DECEMBER NEWSLETTER AND PORTFOLIO
IS CHEAP ENERGY HERE TO STAY?
ARTIFICIAL SCARCITY AND MODERN MARKETS
KISSINGER VS MUNGER
WHY "MACRO" FAILED AND THE MEANING OF GLD/TLT
HAS INFLATION BEEN CONQUERED?
I'M TOO OLD FOR THIS S**T
IS BOND BEAR MARKET REALLY OVER?
HOW COULD THE UK MAKE APPLE PAY MORE TAX?
WHY I AM FILLED WITH EXISTENTIAL DREAD
WHAT HAVE I LEARNED?
NOVEMBER NEWSLETTER AND PORTFOLIO
WHY HAVE EQUITY?
WHY CHANOS FAILED
PRO-LABOUR POLITICS AT WORK
TLT - THE NEW WIDOWMAKER
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION - SHOULD I GET RID OF THE LONG BOOK?
SHOULD I SHORT LUXURY?
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION : WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN?
IS SHORT TLT DONE? PART TWO
CURRENCIES IN A PRO-LABOUR WORLD
THOUGHTS ON SHORT SELLING
ANALYSING BLACKSTONE - ADDENDUM
WHAT IS GOING ON IN CRYPTO?
WHAT'S GOING ON IN ENERGY MARKETS?
IS SHORT TLT DONE?
THINKING ABOUT PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
JUNK JUNK FOOD?
ANALYSING BLACKSTONE
CUTTING THROUGH THE MACRO BABBLE - ADDENDUM
CUTTING THROUGH THE MACRO BABBLE
THE THREE PROFIT CENTRES OF SHORT SELLING - UPDATE
PRO-LABOUR SHIFT AND JAPANESE BANKS
SHOULD I SHORT PRIVATE EQUITY?
WHAT TO SHORT?
ON EMPIRES AND POLITICS
HAS THE FED F&@KED UP?
THE DRUGS DON'T WORK
IS LAWRENCE STROLL A "KEYSER SOZE"?
AM I WRONG ABOUT BONDS?
BRITAIN: THE DILEMMA OF CONTROLLING IMMIGRATION OR RAISING TUITION FEES
PRO-LABOUR IS INFLATIONARY; ANTI-CAPITAL POLICIES ARE DEFLATIONARY
IF I SEEM CONFUSED, ITS BECAUSE THE POLITICS IS CONFUSING
THE PARADOX OF US TREASURIES AS A RISK FREE ASSET
IS THE US LOSING THE WORLD?
SHOULD WE BE LONG TLT AND SHORT GLD?
DOES WALLET SHARE DRIVE CURRENCIES?
MOONSHOT - "ispace" A JAPAN LISTED MOON PLAY
HOW TO READ THE ECONOMIST
CAN YOU DEVALUE TO PROSPERITY?
IS CHINA WINNING? PART II
ARE PRO-LABOUR POLICIES THE END OF EMERGING MARKET INVESTING?
WHAT TO DO ABOUT INDIA - PART II
IS THE ECONOMIST A RELIABLE CONTRA?
THE SHALE PATCH AND OIL PRICES
FOOD INFLATION - HAVE I BEEN TOO “WESTERN” IN MY ANALYSIS?
WHAT’S THE DEAL WITH MCDONALDS?
BUY THE DIP OR SELL THE RIP - PART 2
MORTGAGE RATES AND THE US ECONOMIC CYCLE
IS THIS AS GOOD AS IT GETS FOR SEMICONDUCTORS?
BUY THE DIP OR SELL THE RIP?
SHORT CHANGED? RISK REWARD LOOKS POOR IN THE PAYMENT SECTOR
HOW HIGH CAN VIX GO?
IS IT TIME TO SHORT? PART TWO
GLOBALISATION AND BOND YIELDS
IS TECH ON THE SLOPE OF HOPE OR CLIMBING THE WALL OF WORRY? (PODCAST & POST)
WHY IS SHORT SELLING SO HARD - PODCAST COMPANION
BITCOIN UPDATE 3 - PODCAST COMPANION
PODCAST COMPANION TO DIGITAL REAL ESTATE INVESTING
PODCAST COMPANION TO IS CHINA WINNING OR LOSING THE CURRENCY WARS
PODCAST COMPANION TO RETHINKING THE STAGFLATION OF 1970S